Russia Rakes Up $150 Million Daily From Oil Surge
NEW: Russia is earning up to $150mn a day in extra budget revenues from oil sales amid price rises thanks to the US-Iran war. Moscow has so far earned $1.3bn-$1.9bn from taxes on oil exports and could receive $3.3bn-$4.9bn in total by the end of March. https://t.co/EImkD9rkj3
Iran's Crisis Fueled by Prior Sense of Invulnerability
FWIW - The greatest risk to the unfolding events in Iran was, is, and will continue to be the backdrop of invulnerability that existed moments before hand.
Hormuz Disruption Could Persist for Up to One Month
If Hormuz flows do not resume for a month, that's the worst-case disruption duration my colleagues at @RapidanEnergy and I modeled last June when we mapped out a US-Iran conflict on global oil and LNG markets and prices. We modeled disruption...
Renewables Become Only Viable Exit Amid Global Energy Crisis
Renewables are the only exit strategy: Day 12 (updated) impact of the Israel and US attack, tracking Force Majeure, surcharges, and the explosive inflation behind the headlines FORCE MAJEURE IMPLICATIONS >Shell: FM on all LNG cargoes from Qatar >QatarEnergy: Pretty much totally down,...
US Dollar Near Yearly High Amid Iran Conflict
Today's Opening Bell We covered a lot today- asset chapters provided US Dollar Testing Yearly High as Iran War Escalates https://t.co/7jdA7902Rt
Markets View Iran Conflict as Brief, Not Prolonged Crisis
Rational arguments are made as to why the Iran war won't be over soon, even as it "should" be over to prevent an economic calamity. Yet the market prices this as a temporary shock. What gives? What's the market seeing that...
Iran Opens Hormuz to Indian Tankers, Shifts Trade Route
"Indian Source Says Iran to Allow India-Flagged Tankers Through Hormuz as First Tanker Arrives" Looks like the Strait of Hormuz will be the new Bab el-Mandeb 🍻 https://t.co/370QXTDJC2
Fed Cuts Unlikely as Inflation Stays Above Target
At the start of the year, the market was pricing in 2 Fed rate cuts. Today: just one cut, and not until the September meeting. The reality is inflation never moved down to the Fed's 2% target and is now moving higher....
Iran Conflict Threatens Global Economy Across All Sectors
The Iran War could trigger a global economic crisis and you won’t find a better summary of why than this one sentence from Rachel Ziemba below. Yes, this is about gas prices. But it’s also about: - the cost of food...
Oil Surge Drives Canadian Mortgage Rates Above 4%
Mortgage Rates Go Up: As The Price Of Oil Goes Up So Do Mortgage Rates Unless the War In The Middle East ends quickly we will soon see most Mortgage Rates in Canada start with a 4 And ZERO chance of Bank...
Unimpeded Tankers: Heading to China or Beyond Seiz
Would like to understand why these tankers are sailing unimpeded. Is it that they are going to China? Is it physically impossible to commandeer these ships like with Venezuela?
Manpower Employment Outlook Peaks at Highest Since 2022
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey just jumped to its highest level since Q3/2022. They surveyed 41,700 employers in 42 countries. https://t.co/rs7Dv4XiH6
Trump's Hormuz Gamble Sparks Energy Crisis, Political Peril
Trump is a genius He just figured out he f**ked himself. He didn't see that starting a war that the closed the world's most important energy chokepoint might backfire? #IranWar #OilMarkets #GasPrices #EnergyCrisis #Hormuz #Geopolitics https://t.co/eqI97IDGLV
Global Doubt Threatens US Debt Sustainability
New NYT Opinion from me: The debt math of the United States only works if the rest of the world believes in it… but they’re starting not to. What does that mean for our future (and for all this debt)?...
USD Pressure Rises; Japan Not Defending Fixed Rate
I think it is a mistake to think that Japanese officials actually defend a fixed USD-JPY level. It makes sense to be cautious about the $USD in general as interest rate differentials have moved against it. It is a...
Gold Stays Flat Despite Safe‑Haven Surge and Tensions
Gold should be exploding right now. Here's why it isn't Oil +8%. Stocks tanking. USD rising on safe haven flows But gold? Flat Meanwhile Iran's new Supreme Leader Khamenei says Strait stays closed warns of US military bases attacks Watch what happens next👇...
Carriers Redefine Red Sea Disruption as Permanent Shift
Maersk. Treating the Strait as a long-term situation. The length of the war. How it ends? Iran’s position? Undoing the ship mess in the Strait and Persian Gulf?
Binary Labels Mask the Strait’s Complex Phases
At some point (idk when) "the Strait is closed/open" is going to be a bit like "we shut down/reopened the economy for covid" -- a binary that glosses over various phases of the process.
Dollar, VIX, and Yields Surge Past 20‑Day EMA
U.S. dollar $DXY, volatility $VIX and yields $TNX all rising in tandem > 20-day EMA... https://t.co/Dv49pGJIRC
US Inflation Far Exceeds 2% Myth; Fed Must Hold Rates
Consumer Prices in the US rose 4.4% per year over the last 5 years and over 24% in total. 2% inflation is a myth. The Fed should not be cutting rates at all this year. https://t.co/yilrof4KhM
Markets Underestimate Iran Conflict’s Oil Shock Potential
Why are oil speculators assuming this war is short and irrelevant? Yesterday I talked to an energy analyst I highly respect, and he waved off the Iran situation. Oil/gas markets are dynamic and flexible, he posited, they can handle it....
Iran War Threatens Fertilizer Flow, Spikes Food Prices
My take on the CONSEQUENCES of the WAR IN IRAN: "About 33 percent of the world's fertilizer goes through the Strait of Hormuz. Some people realize this is a BIG DEAL." UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF WAR = HIGHER FOOD PRICES. My latest with @JanetOnTheMoney on...
Hormuz Closure Threatens Markets, Fuels Inflation Surge
...and yet, the Strait of Hormuz is STILL closed, for the 13th day. Why? 🤔 At some point, investors are going to understand why this is; when they do, it is going to be very bad for both stocks AND...
U.S.-China Rivalry Ends; Focus Shifts to Acceptable Terms
The ‘competition’ between the U.S. and China is over. It’s just a question of the terms they will tolerate us to live by.
German Manufacturing Orders Plunge 11% Amid Green Policies, Sanctions
The WSJ reports that German manufacturing orders fell 11.1% in January compared with the previous month. GERMANY’S GREEN MADNESS & SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA HAVE PROVEN TO BE A DEADLY COCKTAIL FOR GERMANY. https://t.co/sqcs2lQvqA
Escalating War, Markets Unmoved by IEA Oil Release
The War Escalates and Markets are Unimpressed with IEA Oil Move: The Middle East war is escalating. The market seems unimpressed with the announcement that strategic oil reserves will be released. The announcement is light on details, such as pace...
Strait of Hormuz Blockade Halts Global Shipping
Good point. There s no viable workaround for the Strait of Hormuz. Ships and supply chains are at a standstill.
Iran Claims Tanker Attack, Shipping Risks Surge Globally
Iran says it hit an American tanker. If true…. Iraq has spent the last few days upping the danger for ships. The global risk keeps increasing for ships, crew, and cargo. The Strait of Hormuz and no safe movement...
Commodity Hoarding Signals New Regime, Not Temporary Spike
Carlyle’s Currie warning on the risks of upward pressure on all commodities. Says hoarding can lead to sustained upward pressure and this marks a regime change, not a spike. References post dotcom bubble (China entrance to WTO; gulf war; etc)...
Iran War Threatens Global Oil System, Risks Economic Collapse
Oil is the lifeblood of the global economy. The system just had a heart attack. The Iran War could become the most consequential geopolitical blunder by an American president in modern history. LINK👇 https://t.co/Tx2sjAvFjq #IranWar #OilMarkets #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyCrisis #EnergySecurity #Geopolitics #GlobalEconomy #OilShock #EnergySystem #SystemicRisk
Yen Hits Intervention Threshold, MoF Faces Decision
As Bloomberg notes, the yen has reached levels where Japan's Ministry of Finance (MoF) and perhaps Secretary Bessent have a choice to make; the yen is clearly in the zone where intervention is a real possibility 1/ https://t.co/gE34g8gEW4
Yield-Oil Divergence Signals Market Concern Shift
War continues. I am watching the cross asset class correlations. So far, bond yields and oil have moved together on inflation concerns. But eventually high oil prices are negative for growth. When bond yields fall as oil prices rise it’s...
Finland Moves From Neutrality to Geopolitical Focal Point
Finland, a nation of less than six million that for decades inhabited a diplomatic limbo between East and West, now sits at the center of these geopolitical cross currents https://t.co/k9rSYzOhx1 via @liamdenning @loupalu @opinion https://t.co/qncnWOqcmj
China Extends Ban, Halts BHP Iron Ore Purchases
China is expanding its ban on steel mills buying BHP iron ore again, adding another product to the blacklist. They've been negotiating for BHP for ~6 months now and there's no end in sight. This is the second ban in...
Indonesia Poised to Lift Fuel Prices Amid Ongoing Conflict
If the conflict lasts, Indonesia will raise fuel prices, which is what it did by end 2022 as the subsidy rose by 30bn…
India VIX’s Low Level Signals Complacency Amid Global Tensions
How come the India VIX below is lower than it was during the Russia-Ukraine crisis? The US Vix is also lower than last year's wars and the Tariff announcements. Either we have not discounted the real extent of what has...
US Initiates Trade Probe Targeting EU, China, India
US launches probe into trading partners including the EU, China and India https://t.co/JsVy4bXFEc Announcement: https://t.co/UgsOQ97Tzp
IEA Warns War Could Cause Unprecedented Oil Disruption
The IEA says the war in turning into the biggest oil disruption in world history https://t.co/UJZqGyrhUP
10% Oil Spike Adds 0.
“Our rules of thumb are that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices boosts headline and core PCE inflation by 0.2pp and 0.04pp, respectively, while lowering GDP growth by around 0.1pp. The growth impact from a temporary price increase that...
Transport Services Inflation Leads Core CPI Pressure
Transport services inflation will be the first core CPI/HICP components to feel the heat, though these data are very sensitive to ampling in any given month.
UK 10‑Year Yields Top 4.7% Amid Oil Surge
UK borrowing costs are on the rise once more this morning. Per the Bloomberg chart below, yields on 10-year British government bonds are again above 4.70% as the war in the Middle East pushes Brent oil north of $95 once again. This...
German 10‑Year Yield Hits 2023 High Amid Inflation Fears
German 10-year yield climbs to highest since 2023 on inflation fears https://t.co/cvav2xEd32 via @highisland https://t.co/oIAhZehdiG
Renewables Can Replace LNG Faster than EVs Replace Oil
What are the consequences for energy markets and the transition of a potential long disruption to the Strait of Hormuz? TLDR: It’s a *lot* easier to replace 20% of LNG (15% of natgas supply) with wind and solar than it...
Global Economic Power Shifts: Asia Regains Dominance
If you compress several centuries of economic history into a single visualization, one thing becomes obvious. Stability is the exception. Not the rule. Power in the global economy has always shifted. In the 1600s, Asia dominated. China and the Mughal Empire accounted for...
Iran Ramps up Energy Attacks as Oil Stays Sub‑$100
Overnight Iran reacted to the IEA's oil release intensifying its attacks on regional energy targets, including two small-sized fuel tankers in Iraq. Tehran knows oil is what could force President Trump to end the war early. Still, both Brent and...
US Launches Trade Probe, Reviving Trump-Era Tariffs
US starts trade probe into the EU, China in Trump’s tariffs revival https://t.co/Yi7oHtrATc via @hlowenkron @catherine_lucey https://t.co/DnU0Aq5dCU
Americans See China as Alien, Fueling Chinamaxxing Meme
Washington Post op-ed: “Chinamaxxing is an effective meme precisely because Americans still see China, the world’s second-largest country by population and only other superpower, as incredibly alien.” https://t.co/xuaBorhEus
Asia Holds Half of $219T Global PPP Economy, China Leads
The Entire Global Economy in 2026 in One Chart (GDP, PPP) Key Takeaways: 👉 Purchasing power parity (PPP) adjusts a country’s economic output to account for differences in cost of living. 👉 The global economy sits at over $219 trillion by this metric, of which...
Commodity Decline Signals Shift to Deflationary Recession
When commodity markets and metal stocks start falling, the narrative will shift from stagflation to a deflationary recession. Every day we get closer to that outcome, the war looks like the smokescreen or precursor to the final event
Private Credit Stress Forces Market to Reprice Risk
Macro: private-credit stress rising; Key: valuation opacity at Blue Owl, higher rates; Risks: hidden losses, redemptions; Trade: cut private-credit exposure. Takeaway: market to reprice risk. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov