Global Shocks Now Drive Half of Rate Changes
Global shocks now account for about half of the variation in interest rates, more than double their role in earlier decades. https://t.co/a8Dhi9Gxpu
OECD Government Payroll Stays ~10% of GDP Despite Crises
Across the OECD, the government wage bill has hovered around 10% of GDP and roughly one-fifth of total employment, showing only limited reaction even to major shocks such as the global crisis and the pandemic https://t.co/mvfQpLWvjt
Crude Surge Drives Bonds, Dollar, S&P 500 Movements
Nice chat with @julesaly looking at how the surge in crude oil is shaping price action in bonds, the US dollar, and the S&P 500. Today on @ausbiztv: https://t.co/8j3fNOcH2C
Economy’s Chaos Is Draining Your Bank Account
Your bank account is a war zone and you're losing the fight. What’s going on? 1. Fertilizer supply chains are dead. 2. Your dream home just got more expensive. 3. Global shipping is a total mess. 4. Oil prices are nuking the economy. 5. Inflation is...
Neutralize Iran's Shipping Threats to Lower Oil Prices
"There is no reason, whether or not Trump declares that war is over, to think that Iran will not continue for some time to threaten to destroy the ships that try. Why should they stop?" --- Exactly, Trump cannot TACO. If he...
Markets Stay Resilient Despite Global Turmoil and Rising Yields
War in Iran Oil up nearly 70% YTD Software stocks crashed Private credit imploding Legit chance of no cuts this year Inflation set to surge Yields globally moving higher S&P 500 down only 2.5% this year
Trump Admin Weaponizes Forced‑labor Claims to End Tariffs
Trump admin picks another fight: “forced-labor” accusations as means to a tariff end. ❌ Section 301 permits the U.S. to impose tariffs on countries found to have engaged in unfair trade practices without congressional authorization. https://t.co/4pSaGKCo2K
Energy Expert Blames India for Hormuz Closure
Energy Expert Anas Alhajji Reveals Truth Of Hormuz Closure, Says 'India ... https://t.co/dGuOAIsElS via @YouTube
Iran's War Economy Could Cripple Global Markets
Iran CAN DESTROY The World's Economy - Anas Alhajji On Iran War Economics https://t.co/U6Tx5l7AlH via @YouTube
US Grants 30-Day Waiver for Global Russian Oil Purchases
US issues 30-day waiver -- to all countries -- to buy Russian oil that was already on tankers as of March 12. https://t.co/Qrk6IGKEwh
US Ignores Hormuz Closure Risk Amid Iran Bombings
How does the US not plan on the closing of the Strait of Hormuz when it executes a multi-week bombing campaign against Iran. https://t.co/PD1g7fvdte
White House Flips: War to Keep Hormuz Open
I kid you not... The same White House that forgot that didn't realize that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz, is now arguing (through Ron Vara) that the war is a good idea because it'll prevent Iran from closing...
S&P Dips 4.4% as Hormuz Stays Shut,
The S&P 500 is down just 4.4% from its January high while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and Israeli officials say Iran's regime isn't likely to fall soon. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/FqwpWIZsQj
Iran's Gains Spark Higher Oil, Global Economic Risks
Iran Is Winning, Which Is Dangerous 💫Odd Man Out 💫Confirmed Bear 💫Higher Oil, Higher Dollar 💫Higher Oil, Higher Yields 💫Higher Oil, Higher USDJPY 💫Higher Oil, Higher Inflation Expectations 💫Higher Oil, Lower AI Investment 💫Higher Oil, Lower Markets https://t.co/WEe7RNmgRh
2‑Year Treasury Yields Spike to Highest Since August 2025
Yields on the 2-year Treasury note posted their largest daily increase since May 2, 2025 (the day of a surprisingly strong payroll report), and closed at their highest level since Aug. 21, 2025, the day before Powell signaled a likely...
Record Broad Money Growth Threatens Purchasing Power
⚠️Broad money supply in developed countries is surging: Broad money across advanced economies rose to a record $74.1 trillion in 2025. This comes after a massive +25% surge during 2020–2022 before growth eased back to trend. It has risen over $50 trillion since...
Oil Shock Upends Markets; Fed Cut No Longer Expected
There is probably no single individual asset as widely-consequential to global markets than oil. The financial system’s simply not built to adjust smoothly to extreme swings in oil, let alone in the face of third-biggest quarterly jump in 40 years. Global...
US Licenses Russian Oil Sales Amid Iran War Profits
NEW: US Treasury issued a general license for the delivery and sale of Russian oil loaded on vessels as of March 12. Moscow continues to be the single largest beneficiary of the Iran War. https://t.co/oVlT1gzuuN
Core Auto Inflation Hits Fastest Rate in 12 Years
The peak for the PCE's core goods x-autos series was 5.3% YoY in 2022. We're not there , but it will jump from 2.3% in Jan26 to 2.9% in Feb26 tks to a 1.0% MoM surge. Outside of covid, it's...
Russia Gains $150 Million Daily From Oil After Hormuz Closure
Russia is earning as much as $150 million a day in extra budget revenues from its oil sales after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/cfFgUkBWrB
January Trade Data Masks Deeper Economic Trends
I can see why the Trump administration likes the January trade data. Imports didn't move much v December and exports bounced back from a December dip. But there is a bit more going on under the hood 1/ many...
Western Private Credit Crisis Mirrors Economic Involution
In which I argue that the West’s developing private credit crisis is just its equivalent of “involution”. https://t.co/1wAWnParft
Fed May Cut Rates If Energy Prices Trigger Recession
"Higher inflation could cause the Fed to eventually raise interest rates. But Sahm said the Fed will also consider what could happen if energy costs rise so high that the economy slows down. “That’s a scenario in which the Fed would...
Powell Faces Rate‑cut Pressure as Oil Doubles
Live look at Powell getting the demands to cut rates while oil just spiked 100% https://t.co/qDIcLm6oIA
IEA's One-Month Oil Buffer Signals Looming Global Rationing
The International Energy Agency (IEA) just authorized a 400 million barrel reserve release to offset oil disruptions caused by the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. That stabilizes markets—for now. However, with global demand at around 100 million...
Brazil Fears Tighter China Soybean Checks Amid Low Imports
🇧🇷Brazilian trade groups are concerned with the tightening of soybean inspections to China, potentially hampering the top exporters' shipments. Doesn't seem like great timing for China after its Jan-Feb imports hit 7-year lows. Now, Chinese meal futures have hit contract highs....
Europe Must Boost Domestic Drilling Amid Energy Crisis
Sure, the price of crude is soaring, but so is the price of natural gas delivered to European and Asian buyers. Regardless of what happens in this war, this energy crisis shows that European countries have to do more drilling....
Iran Keeps Flooding Strait of Hormuz with Oil
VIDEO EXPLAINER: The most important map of the Third Gulf War — the oilfields, the Strait of Hormuz, and the bypass pipelines. Plus a look at how, two weeks into the war, Iran is still exporting lots of its oil,...
2008 Oil Surge Crashed Markets, Fueled Inflation, Enriched Energy Giants
Thoughts? The historic oil price spike to $147 a barrel in July 2008, triggered the worst day in Wall Street history with the Dow falling 777 points. Rising oil prices cascade through the economy, causing inflation across all goods...
Inflation Surprise Drives 2026 Portfolio Tilt to Hard Assets
A couple weeks ago, not many were saying inflation was more of a problem than most realized and we probably don't get as many cuts as are priced into things. @sonusvarghese was all over this lonely call. We've constructed our portfolios...
Key Forces Shaping Global Economy Ahead of March FOMC
A few moments from my recent interview with Asharq Business اقتصاد الشرق 🎙️ We discussed some of the key topics shaping today’s global economic landscape — inflation, oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and the upcoming FOMC meeting on March 18th. Grateful for the...
Italy Backs IEA's Biggest Emergency Oil Release
Thank you to Prime Minister @GiorgiaMeloni of Italy for her and the Italian government’s support for the @IEA’s largest ever release of emergency oil stocks to address the major market disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict https://t.co/njWNOSd5hu
Cramer Declares Unwavering Bullish Stance on Oil
Cramer getting sassy about Iran not having the cards to force oil to $200/bbl by citing the US experience in the... Vietnam War? I've LITERALLY NEVER BEEN SO BULLISH. https://t.co/d8799zIp8i
Rate‑Hike Pricing Hits S&P, Small‑Caps
As the front part of the curve moves closer toward pricing in Fed rate hikes, SPX is down just 1.2%... and the Russell 2000 isn't getting killed $SPY $IWM https://t.co/ITSA3q3sjN
War Amplifies White House Pressure on the Fed
Military conflicts have driven some of the most intense intervals of White House pressure on the Fed in the past. “I hope the Board will…not allow the bottom to drop from under our securities,” Truman wrote to the Fed chair...
Fed Trapped: Oil, Jobs, and Yield Curve Crisis
The Fed can't cut because of oil. Can't hike because of jobs. Can't do nothing because the curve is screaming. Monetary policy was built for one crisis at a time. This is three.
President Urges Rare Intermeeting Rate Cut Before Scheduled Decision
The president expresses a desire for a rare intermeeting rate cut. The last one occurred on March 15, 2020, as the Covid shock overwhelmed financial markets. The Fed's next scheduled policy decision announcement—widely expected to be no change in rates—is in...
Brent Crude Set to Climb $3+ Daily Amid Iran Tensions
Brent crude price, Iran-War-to-date My expectation is that this rough/steady slope will hope, grinding $3+/bbl higher each and every day this crisis persists, always with the possibility of big lurches higher should Iran successfully take out major regional oil infrastructure. https://t.co/nwGMcg7rja
Keep US Oil Exports; Global Integration Essential
Cannot agree more. DO NOT end US oil exports. Our integration into the global oil market is essential. Protectionism would be a horrible idea right now.
Oil Price Spike Won’t Slash Consumer Goods Volume
We've been looking at scenarios on the total volume of goods pumped through the economy, based on current geopolitical developments: Our general view is that the impact of high oil prices isn't as dramatic as one would initially fear in...
Iran War Inflation Drives Terminal Rate to 3.37%
Iran war inflation continues to push up the terminal rate, now 3.37. This had been trading around 3% a month ago. No surprise UST front end getting shellacked with 2s 3.74 and 5s 3.86 https://t.co/8FiC830XW4
Iran Conflict Sparks Acute Oil Market Volatility
🚨 Mid-week Iran War and oil market update for Commodity Context subscribers. More regular coverage of the acute volatility across the increasingly strained oil complex in Oil Context Weekly tomorrow. https://t.co/lvkkTTJr9s
Globalist Mole Inside Administration Sabotaged Strait of Hormuz
Not gonna sugar coat this and do not care if it costs me my new Pentagon press credentials and access to this administration. The left smeared my name in a major WAPO hit piece and the right can do the...
Global Oil Prices Affect U.S. Consumers, Regardless of Policy
There also is a world market for oil. When oil prices go up in Europe and Asia, people here pay more. Even a Trump-Energy Secretary should know this.
US‑Iran Conflict Raises Oil Prices, Not Yet a Shock
U.S./Iran war is not (yet) an oil shock Oil futures prices have increased by more than a third since Israel and the United States attacked Iran and almost two-thirds since the start of the year but the increase is not yet...
U.S. Crude Exports Serve as West’s Strategic Reserve
America’s Strategic Oil Exports @WSJ Great and important read. I still believe the WSJ Editorial Board does some of the most balanced and informed analysis in the media. https://t.co/sxJ6f76VCl The International Energy Agency said Tuesday that its 32 member countries will...
Airfares Rise as Jet‑Fuel
Airfares are beginning to climb as jet-fuel prices surge following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, pushing airlines to raise fares and fuel surcharges while warning of more increases if the conflict drags on. Carriers say travel demand remains strong,...
Saudi Pays Record Tanker Rates to Ship Red Sea Crude
Saudi Arabia is booking more and more super oil tankers at sky high rates (>$450,000 a day vs pre-war levels of $100,000 a day) to shift crude from the Red Sea into global markets.
Hormuz Disruption Threatens Global Fertilizer and Food Security
The Strait of Hormuz isn’t just about oil and gas. It’s about fertilizer. It’s about the supply chains that feed the world. Disrupt them, and the consequences show up months later—smaller harvests, tighter grain supplies, and higher food prices.
BoE May Delay Expected Rate Cut Next Week
Could the Bank of England defer a possible rate cut next week? https://t.co/f0T8D0P94L #GBP #FOMC