War Fuels Fertilizer Crisis, Threatens Asian Economies
The war’s not stopping because of some pain at the American pump. The implications for global fertilizer markets (ammonia, sulphur) are probably going to be as big of a deal as the energy disruptions in several months. Asian economies are in serious trouble.
Short Basket Surges 6% Amid 2026 Market Dispersion
On Liberation Day, we created a Long/Short basket (dollar neutral) meant to capitalize on any fears of stagflation due to Tariffs. That wasn’t our expectation, however. We wrote “The likely result…the administration declares victory, and most tariffs eventually come down...
Trump Says $100 Oil Is Temporary, Will Fall Post‑Iran Threat
Trump on oil prices above $100 a barrel: “Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a small price to pay.” https://t.co/jdsCvB0BtP
Voter Anxiety Over AI’s Economic Impact Rises
Voters are already anxious about the economic impact of AI, and the effects will surely grow in the coming months and years. Yasmin Khorram and Cheyenne Haslett explain what's happening, with some data from our Canaries in the Coal Mine...
India’s Fertilizer Reliance Highlights Asia’s Supply Vulnerability
Asia supply of oil, gas & fertiliser is rather concentrated. We are seeing a massive supply shock to the most important input of modern life: food and transport.
Strait of Hormuz Never Closed, Closure Deemed Unthinkable
“In the whole written history of the strait, it has never been closed, ever,” said JPMorgan Chase analyst Natasha Kaneva,” of the Strait of Hormuz. “To me, it was not just the worst-case scenario. It was an unthinkable scenario.” https://t.co/x0YxXLfMu6
Inflationary Assets Surge; Food Price Spikes May Spark Unrest
$105/bbl A few months ago many said this would never happen. Never bet against inflationary assets in an inflationary era. Deglobalization is structural no cyclical. Watch food prices next. In a world of extreme inequality, with a Fed that needs lower rates to keep...
President Faces Market Pressure for Iran Off‑Ramp
The President is aware and addressing it. How heavy will be the expectation for an offramp on Iran so that he can stabilize the markets?
Brent Surpasses $110 Amid Hormuz Turmoil – Outlook?
Join us today in an X Space for X Subscribers: 🚨Hormuz Chaos: Brent Blasts Past $110 — What's Next for Oil?🚨 Today, Sunday, March 8, 9:00 PM US EST, 8:00 PM US CST No link now. Will open the Space on time.
Trump Tariffs Stalled Job Growth, Raising Business Costs
"Job growth notably stalled after President Trump began his tariff barrage last April, which created economic uncertainty and raised business costs." https://t.co/jaNVkXohlg
Oil Futures Top $100 Amid Middle East Tensions
Oil futures surge above $100 for the first time since 2022 🚨 🛢️ Brent contract jumps more than 10% as the conflict in the Middle East continues https://t.co/KgPOv96YdC
Markets Tumble as Oil Hits $100, Iran Tensions Rise
NQ drops 200 points on the open with a wide gap WTI above $100 for first time since 2022 24,000 will likley tested as sentiment sours over expanding conflict in Iran Prepare to hear doomsday all day long on talking head TV
Middle East Conflict Sends Oil, Gas, Stocks Tumbling
How the US-Israel-Iran War Impacts Oil, Gas, and US Stocks | Anas Alhajj... https://t.co/ZnJKFSYWCr via @YouTube
Gold as Safety Valve, Oil Price Spikes Threaten Global Chaos
In theory, this looks like they are trying to let gold be a release valve of the coming oil inflation. If so, this would be smart IMO, because if gold goes to $7,000, nothing happens…but if oil goes to $130, all...
YARDENI Raises Stagflation Risk, Cuts Meltup Forecast
YARDENI: “.. We can’t rule out a bear market if investors start to anticipate a Stagflating 1970s Redux scenario. .. We are lowering the ‘Meltup’ scenario from 20% to 5% and increasing the ‘Meltdown’ scenario (which now includes a 1970s-style...
China's Unexpected Readiness Shapes Hormuz‑Iran Dynamics
There is also the argument that China is prepared and better positioned than many expect. #Hormuz #Iran
Zillow Predicts Near‑flat Rent Growth, Easing Inflation Pressure
Zillow just updated their 2026-27 rental market forecast. They're projecting single-family rent growth at only +1.1% in 2026, and +0.5% in 2027. With multifamily rents dropping -0.2% and -1.5%. They also project CPI rent growth to fall to ~1.0% by early 2027, which...
Higher Oil/Gas Gains, AI Capex Stalls, Credit Strains
Pretty much agree with everything @abcampbell wrote in this. He articulates things very well. 1. Long oil and gas equities who stand to benefit from higher for longer futures curves https://t.co/OpqxY05aWo 2. Economic growth will be tested and small cap longs behind...
Trump's Tariff Threats Push 74% Canadians Against US
America's northern neighbors have gone negative on the Good Old USA. A STUNNING 74% of Canadians view the US in an unfavorable light. TRUMP TARIFF THREATS = A MASTERCLASS IN HOW TO CREATE ENEMIES. https://t.co/NrtlXSevsb
Gas Prices Jump 15%, Boost March CPI by 0.45%
The national average of gasoline prices is up 45 cents since the war began last week, or a 15.12% increase. This is the second largest increase in the last two decades, depending on the measure you choose (dollar or percentage). All things...
Iranian Regime Collapse Could Drive Oil Prices Down
The Strait of Hormuz is shut. So what's a catalyst for oil prices to fall and not rise as everyone's now saying? The most obvious thing would be the collapse of Iran's regime, the odds of which are rising every...
Female Inclusion Drives Global Economic Growth, World Bank Shows
Happy International Women’s Day. Best way to boost growth and stimulate economies globally- is more female inclusion. The stats from the World Bank are stunning https://t.co/qbI4nWksqf
Iran Consumer Stress Remains Far Below Ukraine Invasion Levels
For those looking for a real-time measure for Iran-related consumer stress... Still well below Ukraine Invasion levels. https://t.co/QMoOhztOkb
Beyond Oil: Gulf War Shook Global Container Trade
If you thought oil and energy was the only thing impacted by the Gulf War, hang on to your containers.
Free Trade Wins: Produce only if Cheaper than Buying
“It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy.” #AdamSmith’s advocacy of #freetrade remains relevant today—though you wouldn’t think so from...
U.S. Public Backing International Trade Hits Record High
American support for international trade is at an all-time high (and, no, not just among Democrats) https://t.co/QayxCkWNFn
Iraq's Shut‑in Oil Exceeds Feared Russian Supply Loss
The volume of crude production that Iraq has *already* shut-in is larger than the peak of *feared* [but never realized] Russian supply loss in early 2022 that spiked crude prices above $120 per barrel.
Singapore’s Oil Anchor Hub Threatened, Hormuz Gains Crucial Role
Everybody is watching the Strait of Hormuz, but they should also be watching Singapore. The image on the right are all the laden tankers sitting in an around Simgapore. The one in the left, with less ships, are loaded Very...
Oil Shocks Affect Prices, Not Sustained Inflation
The Financial Times warns that rising oil prices threaten to fuel inflation. WRONG. Oil shocks change RELATIVE prices, but DO NOT cause SUSTAINED inflation. INFLATION IS ALWAYS & EVERYWHERE A MONETARY PHENOMENON. https://t.co/zvENzIWzCy
Hormuz Traffic Set to Return, but Irregular Amid War
I, too, believe that shopping traffic through the Strait will begin to pick up again, but “regular” isn’t a word that will apply again so long as the war continues And ships will only do so because prices and economic incentives...
High‑Stakes Billionaire Competition Resurfaces Amid Hormuz Crisis
For those who want an overview without watching my full hour+ long video on the Strait of Hormuz Crisis https://t.co/QDALtGFKiC
Iraq's Southern Output Slashes 70% Amid Hormuz Blockade
BAGHDAD, March 8 (Reuters) - Iraqi oil production from its main southern oilfields has fallen by 70% to just 1.3 million barrels per day as the country is unable to export oil via the Strait of Hormuz due to...
Banking Stocks Crash as Economy Slows, Iran Sparks Bubble Burst
Iran may end up being the Pin that pricked the bubble, but the Banking and Financial Sector Stocks are Crashing equity markets as the impact of a slowing economy and the US private credit market takes hold- Hindi Video... https://t.co/sOz3SepGUO via...
Trump-Era Sanctions Gave China Cheap Oil, Now Supply Wanes
This galaxy brain it’s-all-about-China’s-oil talking point drives me *insane* Only reason China was able to buy so much discounted crude from Ven/Irn/Ruz was because of US sanctions, largely imposed by the Trump admin(!), which scared off other buyers and left them...
Post‑Liberation Promises Mask a Looming Jobs Recession
"Since Liberation Day -- the President's last big, bold set of promises when he told us everything was about to be magical -- we've lost jobs. We've gone backwards... I'm going to call that a jobs recession." https://t.co/GZQfUVRfWG
Bitcoin Will Thrive in the Upcoming Hard‑money Era
Bitcoin thrived during an era of easy money, but Wartime Bitcoin will thrive in the era of hard money to come
US Economy Stays Strong Amid Policy Chaos, Future Uncertain
The US economy has been surprisingly resilient in the face of so much policy chaos. But you have to wonder whether that can continue, if the f***wittery just never stops
China's Fertiliser Stockpiles Keep Exports Tight
Fertilisers are rightfully getting a lot of focus now. China looks to be ok (for now). The state has stockpiles and there is material at ports. Exports of urea (nitrogen-based) were already tightly managed and it's hard to see more...
Fed Needs Inflation Surge Before Rate Hike, Bear Ste
Nice job Fam getting my old colleague and experienced central banker 5k followers in 3 days. Still massively underfollowed. Fwiw IMHO the U.S. Fed is going to need an explosion of inflation to hike in the next year....
Economic Upturn Threatened by Rising Oil Prices
Global leading indicators, February 2026 - Upturn confirmed, will it slip in rising oil prices? https://t.co/bHBBQw0j9O, my latest blog post.
Hormuz Closure Boosts Russian Crude to Record Highs
We already know the winner in the war with Iran and that's Russia. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has swung Russian crude from pariah to prized commodity. Urals oil price is the highest since right after the Ukraine...
Commodity Exporters Rebound as Brent Spikes, EM Currencies Rally
Friday marked a turning point. Brent rose 9% (CO1), but - instead of a broad sell-off across EM - South Africa (ZAR), Brazil (BRL) and Chile (CLP) rallied. Markets are transitioning to rewarding commodity exporters like in 2022 after the...
Iran Keeps Shipping Oil to China Amid Conflict
PHOTO OF THE DAY: China is still getting (some of) its oil. Nine days into the war, Iran continues loading oil supertankers from Kharg Island. Tehran has sent some of them across the Strait of Hormuz into the high seas wihthout any...
US Oil Independence Shifts Gains to Industry, Hurts Drivers
“The US is roughly speaking oil independent… on net, we export petroleum products.” That’s why this is less an ‘America is poorer’ story than an ‘Americans reshuffle who wins’ story. Oil industry wins. Drivers lose. https://t.co/Efd22aQEeK
South Korea Mulls First Oil Price Cap in 30 Years
South Korea is considering to introduce an oil price cap for the first time in 30 years 🇰🇷 🛢️ It is being considered carefully because of possible side effects including market distortions and fiscal burdens, according to Yonhap https://t.co/r66h5y13D6
Helium Concerns Overblown; Oil and JKM Drive Korean Stocks
This is very reminiscent of the “WDC is a zero because of neon gas shortage from Ukraine” episode. The impact of higher oil, or more importantly JKM prices, for Korean equities is a real discussion. This helium stuff is not though.
US Beef Supply Relies Heavily on Mexican Cattle
"Texas Feedlot Operators Explain Why U.S. Beef Supply Depends on Mexican Cattle Imports" https://t.co/D3IHviRfRg https://t.co/fO9Ac9MceR
IEA‑Trump Alliance Risks Oil Glut, Markets Unconvinced
Looks like the start of a beautiful “oil glut” partnership between the IEA and the Trump administration. Markets may have other ideas. #OilMarkets #EnergyPolicy #IEA #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity https://t.co/IPd77wk6Q7
Hormuz Crisis Proves Oil Supply Far From Abundant
Claims that the world is “well supplied with oil” during a Hormuz crisis are obviously false @SecScottBessent With 35% of maritime oil flows offline, your comments are at best out-of-touch with reality. At worst, they're lies #OilMarkets #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #IranWar #Geopolitics
China Faces Energy Crisis as Gulf Oil Imports Halt
China imports crude oil based on the day, between 65 and 85% of its total, and about three-quarters of that comes specifically from the Persian Gulf. And that has now dropped to zero. Unlike countries like the United States, which...