Italy Risks Iran Setback to Escape EU Scrutiny
Italy risks Iran setback in a bid to exit EU scrutiny, Scope says https://t.co/fGVWOIJe8n via @CraigStirling https://t.co/7T2WI2wmif
Oil Surpasses $100 Amid Middle East Conflict, Markets Unsettled
Capital Markets Remain Unsettled with Oil Above $100: The Middle East war continues to dominate the investment environment. The dollar is firm. Equities are lower. Yields are higher. The disruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz is forcing oil…...
Gulf's Power Tied to U.S. Defense, Not Independence
The Gulf countries are just as strong as the USA because it is the US that agreed to DEFEND them…. So, all of them combined just fall under the US…. Iran is already fighting their protector, so it can literally...
U.S. Becomes Net Energy Exporter, Yet Oil‑Price Sensitive
One of my higher conviction views: the US is now a net energy exporter (LNG more than oil) but it is best understood as an oil importer that is uniquely sensitive to oil price swings. 1/
Trump’s Policies Keep Taxing Americans: Tariffs and War
One year ago the Trump-Tariffs put a tax on all Americans. This year it's the Trump-Iran War adding to that tax. (his observation 👇) https://t.co/nF3KxY5qpw
Saudi Cuts Oil Output; Shipping Bottleneck, Not Supply
*SAUDI ARABIA STARTS OIL OUTPUT CUTS AS STORAGE FILLS UP We do not have a lack of supply of oil. We have a lack of supply of shipping
Labor Market Risk Outweighs Inflation Concerns This Cycle
There is a lot of chat about whether this will be "as bad" as 2022. From inflationary pov, unlikely. And CBs shouldn't be too worried about wage-price spirals, despite the endless overshoot. But my worry is that it tips labour...
G7 Reserve Coordination Eases Market Shock, Dollar Firm
Reports G7 will discuss coordinated release of strategic reserves is helping to stem the worst of the markets' reaction to the weekend developments. Still, USD is mostly firmer, rates higher, and equities lower. See https://t.co/4OVnPnHNHB https://t.co/PN5lizMKsV
Iran War Adds 5% Inflation Risk to BoE
Bank of England hit by 5% inflation risk from the war in Iran https://t.co/MPiOtzZc9t via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/PH66hDSVno
Central Banks Miss Inflation Targets Five Years, War Delays Cuts
Central banks have overshot their inflation targets for FIVE YEARS. This war threatens to make that six. If you think they are just gonna cut rates anyway, I dunno what to tell you. Minimum - rate cuts are postponed.
Oil Spikes Signal Cycle End: Income Squeeze, Fed Reaction?
an old debate. Oil-price spikes have a nasty habit of marking the end of the cycle. But is that because of the income-squeeze, or the Fed's response? Or both? https://t.co/IE8tGIRy68
Tariffs Hurt Consumers: Trade Deficits Aren’t Bad
"I find myself repeating over and over again the arguments that Smith first made 250 years ago: Trade deficits are not inherently bad; imports are the source of real benefits to consumers; and trade expands the division of labor, raising...
Qatar Delays LNG Expansion to 2027 After Drone Attack
Qatar is pushing back the start of its new LNG expansion project to 2027 🇶🇦⚠️ The move comes after the Ras Laffan facility was hit with an Iranian drone attack This threatens to further curb global gas supply and push back an...
Iran War and Oil Surge Amplify US Labor Market Risks
FYI, my latest article in the Financial Times discusses how the war in Iran and skyrocketing oil prices can compound the spillovers from an uncertain US labor market and financial strains in three market sectors. https://www.ft.com/content/418455bc-e177-46a4-8e25-44c837f49038 #economy #markets #oil #middleeastwar @financialtimes
ECB Must Lean on Fiscal Support in Crises
Another really important part of the ECB reaction function; fiscal support. I mean they can’t afford it … but that’s what emergencies are for.
IEA Emergency Oil Releases Have Surged, 2022 Tops History
History of IEA collective oil emergecy stockpiles releases (and size; note the size was volume offered): 1991: First Gulf War (~75 million) 2005: Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (~60 million) 2011: Libya civil war (~60 million) 2022: Russia-Ukraine (~180 million in two tranches)
Energy Prices Fuel Inflation; Efficiency and Renewables Needed
Rising energy prices are pushing up inflation, especially in economies dependent on imported fossil fuels. The durable solution is structural: improve efficiency, accelerate electrification and scale up renewables. Energy policy is economic policy. https://t.co/hmcAVJFLOT
Markets Overreact: Pricing Unlikely Rate Hikes Across Europe
Markets pricing in rate hikes from the ECB, the BoE... and the SNB. You gotta be kidding me.
Iranian Envoy Urges US, Israel to Leave Hormuz
U.S., Israel Should Withdraw From Strait of Hormuz Area, Says Iranian Envoy—Iran’s ambassador to China denounced the U.S. and Israel as sources of insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz and called on the two governments to withdraw from the area. @ByChunHan...
Bangladesh Shuts Universities to Curb Energy Demand Amid Crisis
Demand destruction as we speak, starting with Bangladesh. Thailand and China curbed exports of diesel and gas. Vietnam will do so next.
G7 Ministers Call Emergency Meeting, Consider Oil Reserve Release
G7 finance ministers to hold emergency conference call at 12.30pm London time to discuss the impact of the US- -Iran war, Paris said in a statement. According to the Financial Times, several G7 nations favour a release of their Strategic Petroleum...
Current Geopolitical Threats Outpace Ukraine’s Economic Impact
There are perceived geopolitical risks and then REAL ones. Hormuz is Arrakis as far as we are all concerned. Ukraine war in 2022 was never as big of a risk to the global economy as what is now going on....
IEA Warns Surplus Could Turn Deficit Amid Middle East Turmoil
Latest from the IEA: - "Speaking with governments" and "closely monitoring" events in the Middle East. - Says global oil market has been "in significant surplus" since the start of 2025. However, "prolonged disruptions could flip the market into a deficit". - IEA...
SARB MPC Schedules Five Additional 2026 Meetings
𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 🇿🇦 The SARB’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet 𝐅𝐈𝐕𝐄 more times in 2026. Bookmark these dates 🔻 🇿🇦2̶9̶t̶h̶ ̶J̶a̶n̶u̶a̶r̶y̶ ( Unchanged ) ✅ 🇿🇦26th March 🇿🇦28th May 🇿🇦23rd July 🇿🇦23rd September 🇿🇦19th November
EU Urged to Leverage Market for Concessions From Fragile China
1/6 SCMP: "The European Union has been urged by the EU’s official think tank to weaponise its giant market to draw concessions from China, whose economic fragility is making it increasingly reliant on rich export markets." https://t.co/haMEakKlUZ via @scmpnews
SARB Rules Out Rate Cuts, Hikes Possible Amid Tensions
South Africa is an oil-importing economy. The South African Reserve Bank is indirectly telling you that interest rate cuts are now off the table, and that if the tension in the Middle East continues, then interest rate hikes can’t be...
Strait of Hormuz Shutdown Sparks Worst Energy Crisis Since 1970s
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the worst global energy crisis since the 1970s Who’s to blame for this?
March 9, 2009: Market Bottom Marks 17-Year Recovery
Today is March 9th. Do you remember March 9th, 2009. That day the equity markets bottomed out after the Global Financial Crisis. Happy Anniversary.
China's CPI Surges, Deflationary Trend Reverses
1/6 China's deflationary environment continues to improve, with high-than-expected numbers in February. CPI inflation was 1.3% year on year and 1.0% month on month. Month-on-month inflation has been positive since December and mostly positive since July. https://t.co/gpaBJ53yli
China Refuses U.S.-style Role in Iran Partnership
.@ZichenWanghere: “China is not willing to play the same role for Iran that the United States has long assumed for its own partners. But that does not mean that China is feckless…Too many observers still measure every rising power against...
China Acknowledges Deflation Risk, Vows Positive Cost Growth
“Encouragingly, China now seems very alert to the threat of deflation…Li Qiang said the government will steer the cost of living ‘back into positive territory.’ That’s tougher language than last year…a welcome recognition that Beijing has a problem.” https://t.co/V270GGGAJB
Trump's Aggressive Foreign Policy Fuels Higher Oil Prices
Last month I wrote a column about whether Trump could take credit for low oil prices. Trump loves to talk about how much he wants/pushes for low prices, but I argued his aggressive foreign policy was a massive bullish driver of...
Risk‑off Defies Norms as Yields Stay Flat‑up
Puzzling. In risk-off market yields go down, but they're flat to up, globally (so not "sell-America"). Central banks seen as less likely to ease. True, until you get non-linearities and recessions (e.g. summer of 2008, oil up sharply and ECB...
China's CPI Jumps 1.3% in February, Outpacing Forecasts
China Consumer Inflation Beats Expectations on Holiday Boost—The consumer-price index rose 1.3% from a year earlier in February https://t.co/U4ziLySrnu https://t.co/U4ziLySrnu
Oil Surges Past $100, Inflation Data Gains Weight
Middle East tensions spike oil past $100 and shake inflation forecasts. This week's CPI and PCE data could pack extra punch as rate cut hopes fade. 🟢 Open https://t.co/dcFgI6Pdro
Beijing's Choice: Strategic Counter or Patient Wait
The only question that matters in the next few weeks is whether Beijing concludes that the Iran escalation cutting off 40% of Chinese oil imports was deliberate and therefore demands a strategic response, or concludes that it was reckless and...
Brent Crude Jumps 25% Amid Middle East Conflict
*BRENT CRUDE OIL EXTENDS SURGE TO 25% ON MIDEAST WAR DISRUPTION In addition to rallying 25% today (Sunday night), May Brent Crude oil futures are up 56% since last Wednesday's low (March 4th). https://t.co/Afycm5leiS
Asia Faces Deep Shock as Energy Prices Surge
We discussed on the impact of the crisis on Asia and it is a big negative shock for the region as we are very oil and gas dependent & we are importers of that from the Middle East. Price higher =...
Strait of Hormuz: Global Economy’s Vital Artery at Risk
If you want to understand global oil trade think of this as the world's circulatory system. Pinching the Strait of Hormuz is like closing a major artery. It will cause damage the longer it is closed and if not careful, you either...
Oil Surges, Gold Slides as Dollar Rallies
Oil spiking to $107 while gold falls. The dollar is strengthening as global markets panic. Both moves happening at once. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/Og6roiaoNd
Oil Price Spikes $40 in a Week; Panic Insufficient
People aren’t freaking out enough The situation is not under control Price of oil up 40 bucks in a week
Navigating Financial Stress in a War‑Stricken Economy
Beyond market dynamics. Financial stress and the way forward in a war stricken economy. https://t.co/LIopIEO6s7 https://t.co/BjcTLG016G
Don't Chase Brent Spike; Hormuz Closure Unlikely to Worsen
Brent is $106 and markets are in full panic mode. They were slow to price the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but at this point the Strait isn't going to get any more closed. If anything, it'll...
Taiwan Caps Weekly Oil Hikes, Likely Freezes Power Rates
Taiwan's government will set a weekly cap on oil price increases to help contain domestic inflation, local media reports 🇹🇼🛢️ Fuel prices to be adjusted overall by ~5% this week The likelihood of freezing electricity tariffs in April is high https://t.co/tTWfUV2wiI https://t.co/LgRs7ClOH7
Trump Admin Anticipates Prolonged Oil Disruptions Amid Russia‑Iran Ties
A sophisticated man like Bessent “unsanctioning” Russian oil as Russia is… 1. Openly supporting Iran 2. Reportedly helping Iran target US assets 3. Still fighting Ukraine …strongly suggests the Trump Admin knows these oil disruptions are going to be longer than expected.
Gulf War III Cuts Global Oil Supply by 20%
Yeeps: @Bob_McNally of @RapidanEnergy "Gulf War III has disrupted ~20% of global oil supply for nine days and counting – more than double the previous record set during the Suez Crisis of 1956-57, which disrupted just under 10%."
Historic Oil Supply Loss Doubles Suez Crisis, No Spare Capacity
Compared to the last maximum disruption during the 1956-1957 Suez Crisis (as a percentage of total liquids demand), this represents the largest oil supply loss in history, by a factor of two. Worse, unlike in past crises, there's zero spare capacity...
Hormuz Closure Triggers Sulfur Shortage, Sparks Demand Destruction
Negative supply shock will lead to price increases & the only way to correct that if supply doesn’t rise is, well, demand destruction. We are headed towards demand destruction if the conflict doesn’t end by Day 14. Today is Day 10....
Investors Shocked by Liberation Day, Split on Hormuz Risks
Liberation Day: Investors stunned, didn’t think he’d do it after Trump 1.0, tariffs universally hated among investors Strait of Hormuz situation: Investors more afraid of a TACO, Wall Street opinions about the Iran operation not as universally negative as Liberation Day
Low Reserves Raise Borrowing Costs and Default Risk
Isn't it likely that countries in fiscal distress find it hard to borrow, have to pay high default premia, and run down their reserves like everything else?