New Pipeline Could Ease Hormuz Strait Oil Disruption
Read @JavierBlas on the oil pipeline that could ameliorate the closure of the Straight of Hormuz https://t.co/hfkrPgLpIy https://t.co/BIgHZhk6rA
China's PPI Negative Three Years, Signaling Persistent Deflation
China is in the grip of a DEFLATION. In February, its Producer Price Index (PPI) was NEGATIVE at -0.9%/yr. If that's not bad enough, China's PPI has been negative for 3 STRAIGHT YEARS. DEFLATION = AN ANEMIC MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH STORY. https://t.co/HLuNvjATSK
Quit Intentions Hit Lowest Point Since Survey Start
The % of workers who plan to quit their jobs has fallen to its lowest level since the start of the NY Fed's survey. People who have a job are not giving them up right now https://t.co/p7kO4PdQ2A
Strait of Hormuz Shutdown Starts Impacting Brent Prices
My chat with @SoumayaKeynes about oil on the @FT podcast. When we did this on Thursday, Brent was $83 and there was lots of humming and hawing if they can go higher. We discussed the shutdown of the Strait of...
Significant Break Identified in Time Series Data
We will of course need careful empirical analysis to be sure, but this is a very strong and telling break in the time series. https://t.co/r6avYSPdM6
Brazilian Real Surges, Echoing Post‑Ukraine Shock
In the last two trading days, the Brazilian Real has outperformed every other EM currency. This parallels price action after Russia invaded Ukraine. The same terms of trade shock that took $/BRL to 4.50 then is happening again now. Prime...
Taiwan Premier's Japan Baseball Visit Strains Tokyo‑China Relations
Taiwan’s premier made a personal trip to Japan and appeared in public to watch the island’s baseball team in action, a rare visit that risks deteriorating Tokyo’s ties with China further https://t.co/CqBObJKdDb
Even After Iran's Surrender, Oil Recovery Weeks Away
If the war ended today with Iran's complete and total surrender, Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic would take two weeks to return to normal and Gulf oil production two months to get back to pre-war levels. And that's optimistic. https://t.co/o3CKt61EZn
Turkey's Economy Surged While Saudi and Iran Stagnated
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, the economic performance of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran were virtually identical. The only economy in the region that boomed was Turkey. A GRAPH IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS. https://t.co/1l6xvZVSll
Nowcast Shows Shipping Volumes Collapse, Dragging Economy
Some weekly inputs are coming into our nowcast-model today, and it looks pretty painful to be honest. Especially in growth terms. The shipping/trucking/export/import volumes look bad. Really bad. So this is starting to impact the economy (already)..
Stagflation's Real Impact on Stocks Explained
Everyone is suddenly talking about stagflation… but most people have no idea what that actually means for the stock market #stockmarket #stocks #stagflation
France Says G7 Still Hesitant on Oil Stockpile Releases
France says G-7 is not there yet on releasing oil stockpiles https://t.co/aduCab1b7z via @WHorobin @Alemrome https://t.co/YIIOlUuvMQ
Year‑long 10% Energy Surge Adds 40bps Inflation, Cuts Growth
1/5 A 10% increase in energy prices that persists for a year would push global inflation up by 40 basis points and slow economic growth by 0.1-0.2%, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. So, what price measures "persists for a...
China’s Low Inflation Mirrors Slower Money Supply Growth
China’s inflation rate comes in at 1.3%/yr in February, BELOW its 2% target. China’s money supply (M2) is growing at 9.0%/yr, BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 10.0%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
G7 Finance Ministers Address Global Economy Amid Middle East Conflict
Today, on the invitation of Minister Roland Lescure of France, which holds the G7 Presidency, I took part in a meeting of G7 Finance Ministers on the global economic situation and Middle East conflict. My statement on the meeting: https://t.co/NnpeYX73nn...
Beyond Price Control: New Roles for a Full US SPR
People recoil at the idea of using the SPR just to damp prices. But now that the US has plenty of domestic oil, what other purposes would it serve? What other conditions would be an appropriate time to use it?
Oil Spikes Above $119 as Supply Cuts, War Fears Loom
LONDON, March 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices surged to more than $119 a barrel on Monday, hitting levels not seen since mid-2022, as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruption gripped the market due to the...
Global Bonds Tumble as Oil Spikes on Middle East Conflict
LONDON/SINGAPORE, March 9 (Reuters) - Bonds across the globe sank on Monday as a rapidly worsening U.S.-Israeli war with Iran briefly pushed oil prices near $120, heightening investor fears over inflation which they bet may prompt European central banks to...
Seizing Iran’s Kharg Port Could Halve Oil Output
LONDON, March 9 - Iran's oil exports would stall and output halve if the U.S. and Israel were to seize its port on Kharg Island, triggering further attacks from Tehran on regional oil infrastructure, JP Morgan said in a note.
G7's 400‑Million‑Barrel Release May Mask Iran Conflict Risks
G7 countries looking at releasing oil reserves. Maybe 400 million barrels. How much impact will this have? What if the Iran war continues, and reserves are drawn down?
June Fed Rate‑cut Odds Drop to 40% Amid Oil Surge
Market expectations of a June rate cut from the Fed have fallen to around 40%, close to their lowest levels in months following the run-up in oil prices, according to CME Group https://t.co/1DRbhts0Fk
Global Economy Faces More Violent, Frequent Shocks
Thank you, Andrew, Becky, and Joe for the conversation on Squawk Box this morning. FYI, here is one of the clips... https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/09/the-global-economy-is-subject-to-more-violent-and-frequent-shocks-says-mohamed-el-erian.html ... and here is the full interview: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/09/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-allianz-chief-economic-advisor-mohamed-el-erian.html #economy #markets @cnbc #oil #middleeastwar
Energy Shock Forces ECB Rate Hikes, Traders Bet Higher
Energy shock rewrites the ECB’s rate path as traders bet on hikes https://t.co/PhHe7FAJb5 via @highisland @greg_ritchie https://t.co/FvJg4WW5Ei
EU Secures Russian Arctic LNG Ahead of Gas Ban
EU Buys 100% of Russian Arctic LNG Just 9 Months Before Planned Gas Ban. And the Iran war impact? https://t.co/235AGjQMDs
Oil Surge Lifts Inflation Swaps, Not Signaling Recession
1Y zero coupon inflation swaps have jumped (obvi) as oil prices surged Much more surprising to me is that 1Y1Y inflation swaps have risen That is, this isn’t a “price spike = recession” move All this while the super-backwardation in crude doesn’t...
Iran Conflict May Cement China’s Energy Dominance
How the Iran War Could Consolidate China’s Energy Dominance - Amid global oil and gas disruptions, China stands prepared for the electrostate era. https://t.co/XjVHuN91u9
War's Oil Surge Mirrors $50 Carbon Tax Estimate
fun fact: at $90/barrel, the impact of the war is equivalent to a ~$50/ton carbon tax, right where the biden administration estimated the social cost of carbon
Japan Lifts YCC; Iran Targets UST Market Vulnerability
10y UST yield (blue, RS1) USDJPY * oil (red, LS) USDCNY * oil (green, RS2) Since Japan lifted YCC on 10y JGBs 👇 "Iran doesn't have to beat the US military; it just has to beat the UST market" -Title of 3/3/26...
Rising Oil Prices Set to Push US CPI Above 3%
Lower energy prices were keeping US inflation rates from rising. But that tailwind will turn into a headwind in March with prices spiking on a YoY basis. We could easily see CPI rise above 3% if Crude Oil stays above...
Trump’s Rare‑Earth Bank Leaves China Dependence Unchanged
The Bank Trump Is Relying On for Rare-Earth Minerals Impact so far on dependence on China? Zero.... https://t.co/Ux4lLRcEqv via @NYTimes
Energy Crunch at Hormuz Threatens Global Supply Chains
Chinese WSJ: Severe energy crisis with limited shipping thru the Strait of Hormuz. What kind of crisis will it bring to global logistics and supply chains? Fuel for transporting goods for manufacturing and retail. Businesses and consumers.
Iran War Doubles Oil Moves, Halves Dollar Impact
Compared to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion, this Iran war has produced 2x the move in oil, but only 1/2 the move in DXY. This is exactly what I'm talking about playing out - the dollar is structurally challenged. https://t.co/H1VIqKNbr7
Hormuz Reopening Could Trigger Sharp Dollar Decline
The Dollar (blue) and rate differentials (black) are massively diverging. When the Strait of Hormuz reopens - even if only a little bit - we'll see a very large drop in the Dollar. We're still very much in a regime...
Moj
Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, became the third leader in the history of the Islamic Republic. The Venn diagram of what is acceptable to Israel and the United States, and what Khamenei can credibly offer, has no overlap...
Tariffs Linked to 240k Job Losses in Manufacturing and Transport
"Tariffs may have affected manufacturing employment, which declined by 119,000 in 2025. Likewise, the trade sensitive transportation and warehousing sector declined by 123,800." https://t.co/ed9bs6nNSn
Oil Supply Deletion Drives Prices, Volatility, and Market Stress
$WTI above $100. $VIX above 33. Nikkei down 5.4%. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Zero tankers transiting. This isn't a supply disruption. It's a supply deletion. And the SPR is at 40-year lows. https://t.co/WaTisWuS4y
Iran's 70% Output Cut Predicts Oil Price Decline
Iran's oil production is down 70%, according to reports. When the fifth largest oil producing country in the world (at 5 million barrels a day) drops like this, we now know what the underlying asset price will do. https://t.co/jRLuiAK0xM
Western Economies Can't Afford Stagflation Amid Rising Deficits
Western economies cannot afford stagflation, particularly with current deficits. Before the "war" started. The Calligulino administration is composed of dimwits incapable of grasping the consequences of their actions. https://t.co/dtGLn9cwTw
Closed Hormuz Strait Shifts Oil Risk to Reopening
The Strait of Hormuz is closed. It's not going to get more closed than it already is. All the risk is now on the other side, i.e. when and to what extent it opens. You can bet Trump is very...
Buy Gold Above $5200 as Dollar Strength Persists
Macro: USD & yields up; oil spike lifts risk‑off. Key: $5000 sup, $5150–$5200 res. Risks: Middle East safe‑haven vs dollar strength. Trade: Buy on decisive close >$5200. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Stagnant Jobs and Oil Spike Signal Recession, Defense Favored
Recent employment trends combined with the oil price spike suggest recession risk is rising, and this was not on the market's bingo card this year... Though February job losses were skewed by one-time effects, the weakness is nonetheless part of...
How Energy Crises Begin: Lessons From Iran
My debut in @TheFP - This Is How an Energy Crisis Starts - by Ellen R. Wald https://t.co/8Isvg3TkzQ @ACGlobalEnergy #oil #iran #oott
Iran Conflict Could Halt Grain Surplus Recovery
Commodity Price Pumps and Iran vs. Russia's Ukraine Invasion - The US exports about 25% of its grain production, and prices have been declining on the back of the 2022 spikes, which incentivized more supply -- notably from Brazil. Russia's...
Hormuz Closure Threatens India's Energy Supply
A 33 km waterway which is 3000 km away from you can decide how much you must pay for petrol, cylinder etc. A 33 km waterway between Iran–Oman called the Strait of Hormuz. 20% of global crude oil passes through this route,...
Iran Conflict Disrupts Fed’s Economic Forecast Again
The war in Iran is scrambling the economic outlook for the Federal Reserve — again. https://t.co/TGmVeLOISN
Prolonged Hikes Risk Pushing Economy Into Recession
put it this way, if this situation last long enough for central banks to hike, they'll end up hiking into a recession
Pre‑emptive Oil Purchases Could Offset Iran Bombing Price Spike
I don't think you have to Nostradamus to figure that bombing Iran might raise oil prices. And it seems pretty obvious that buying oil in advance of causing an oil price spike might just save Americans a lot of...
Oil Shock Risk‑off Still Incomplete, Metrics Lag
"Historical risk-off moves after an oil shock have generally required at least one of: Large and sustained oil price spike...Hawkish policy response...Broader macro damage:" Deutsche Bank. We're "closer than a week ago, but on several metrics we aren’t quite there...
Markets Price Rate Hikes as Central Banks Stay Hawkish
On central banks: Judging from the shift in market probabilities of interest rate actions, the markets now believe that single-mandate central banks (that is, price stability), such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, are in no mood...
Discussing How to Bring Oil Below $100
I’ll be coming up on @BloombergTV in a few to discuss zooming #oil prices with @lisaabramowicz1 & @FerroTV Can anything be done to bring oil under $100 in the foreseeable future? @ACGlobalEnergy #oott #Iran https://t.co/hJJBdEoPvU