Rising Global Debt Fuels Record Defense Spending Surge
As I research and write my upcoming report on "Defense Innovation", global debt levels have been top of mind. Total global debt surged by $28.8 trillion last year, hitting a record $348 trillion. It was the biggest rise in the global debt burden since COVID. And as the Institute of International Finance noted: “Governments’ investments in national security were the primary driver.” Many of world's most indebted countries are also driving the acceleration in defense spending (Japan, France, Canada, the US, China, South Korea, Italy, etc.). Global defense spending hit $2.7 trillion last year. The UN has projected that number will hit $6.6 trillion by 2035 if trends persist. And that was before Mark Carney’s speech in Davos and the Trump administration’s actions in Venezuela and Iran—i.e., trend disrupting developments. As @RayDalio has warned: "Even though [a debt “death spiral”] has happened many times in history, most policy makers and investors think their current circumstances and monetary system won’t change. The change is unthinkable—and then it happens suddenly.” Far more to come in the report about what this means for growth, inflation, and defense-related investment opportunity moving forward. Learn more about Sage Road Research: https://t.co/Wgwz2xnvR6. Interested in subscribing? Message me. Chart source: https://t.co/xddRGbirK3
China’s Electrostate Shift Cushions Impact of Rising Oil Prices
China may benefit from higher oil prices triggered by Iran war China’s evolution into an “electrostate” may help insulate it from spiking oil prices. https://t.co/oCfxauQUQP
Helium Shortage Looms as Qatar Supply Disrupted
Everyone is talking about the impact of closing the Strait of Hormuz on oil and gas. I haven't seen much discussion of the war's impact on helium. Most people think of helium as being a fun gas you use for...
Canada Loses 84K Jobs, Signaling Looming Stagflation
Horrible Canadian Jobs Report: 84K Full-Time Jobs Disappear But WAIT This Is Even Worse Than It Seems Ever hear of Stagflation? I have lived through Stagflation & it's a mess Simple concept: Inflation accelerates as an economy withers Central Banks can't help
Fed Cuts Would Spike Yields Amid Oil‑driven Demand Destruction
If the Fed cut rates, bond yields would soar. Crude oil prices are surging due to supply constraints. The market needs demand destruction to restore balance. In plain English, there is not enough crude oil to go around because of the...
Fed Stuck: Low CPI Hides 68% Oil Surge
CPI at 2.4%. Looks fine. Except $WTI is up 68% YTD and none of it is in the data yet. The Fed is trapped. Cut → inflation explodes. Hold → recession deepens. Goldman pushed cut to September. Futures say December 2027. https://t.co/WFbW5IQa0u
Goldman’s Shifting Forecasts Reveal War to Reopen Hormuz
Looking at Goldman Sachs Research gives a good timeline for thinking about the Strait of Hormuz * March 4, Hormuz flows would recover in 5 days. * March 9, they pushed that to 10 days * March 11, they extended it again...
EU Proposes Solution to Montenegro's Euro Usage Issue
EU floats fix for euro use that’s clouding Montenegro’s membership bid https://t.co/eov27Lw9Rv via @jaskuzmanovic @europressos https://t.co/KoM3j0R4qx
Higher Tariffs Inevitably Drive Increased Fraud and Evasion
Higher tariffs have LONG been associated with more evasion (fraud, piracy, etc). That's why most fiscal/econ projections of tariff effects (eg, @TaxFoundation) account for some evasion/leakage. No surprise historically high/complex tariffs led to tons of fraud. It's baked in.
Strait Closure Likely if Conflict with Iran Escalates
Closure of the strait is one of the most obvious possible consequences of conflict with Iran...
U Mich Survey Shows Expectations Decline Amid Iran Conflict
"Expectations Worsen After Start of Military Conflict in Iran" - U Mich sentiment survey https://t.co/bJlKLotCQ1
US Eases Russian Oil Bans, Boosting Putin’s War Funds
US Treasury Allows More Russian Oil Sales to Help Tame Prices. And Putin is laughing as he heads to the bank and thumbs his nose at sanctions. And has needed revenue for his Ukraine war. https://t.co/zWRhldvD7W
Overcapacity Rules Target All Except China
The real problem isn't the overcapacity (really state support for further investment in sectors with overcapacity) 301 against China. It is the overcapacity 301s against everyone else. 1/
China’s JV Rules Succeed via Approval Leverage, Tariffs, Cheap Currency
This is a critical point -- China's JV requirements worked b/c China had to approve investments (so it had leverage) generally speaking & b/c China had relatively high tariffs (25% on autos) and an undervalued exchange rate so there was a...
Week 12 VIX Peaks as Central Banks Hold Rates
Looking ahead to next week - we have a laundry list of central bank rate decisions (almost all holding) with critical forecast updates at a critical time - like the #FOMC SEC. Historically, the 12th week of the year is the...
China Rejects U.S. Overcapacity Claims, Emphasizes Global Interdependence
China says US has no right to define overcapacity MOFCOM: "The world economy has long become an inseparable whole. As production and consumption are global, supply and demand must be matched and adjusted from a global perspective. If each country's...
Japan’s Oil Move Exposes Vulnerability, Boosts China’s Leverage
Japan taps oil reserves as Iran war spreads. Could it give China leverage? With Tokyo and Beijing still at loggerheads over Taiwan, analysts warn Japan’s decision exposes its economic vulnerability Yet another "Iran war gives Beijing leverage' piece, short answer....no... https://t.co/nx95uxzmnh
Rising Fuel Costs and Wage Disinflation Curb Spending, GDP 0
Big pop in pump prices will drag on discretionary spending when wages succumbing to disinflation. And consider starting point of 0.7% GDP coming into 2026 (which today’s GDP revisions demonstrate were driven WAY MORE by fundamentals vs old narrative of...
Brazilian Stock Pullbacks Offer Secular Commodity Play
Pullbacks in Brazilian equities are opportunities, in my view. And no — this isn’t just an energy trade. It’s a derivative of a weakening dollar and a broader commodity bull market. I love a secular thesis. The same applies to metals and mining. H/t to...
Core PCE Hits 22‑month High, Fueling Fed Hike Odds
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) moved up to 3.1% in January, the highest level in 22 months. That was the 59th consecutive reading above the Fed's 2% target level. There will be no Fed rate cut next...
Crude, VIX, Bitcoin Surge After US‑Israel Iran Attack
big picture % change since U.S. & Israel attacked Iran... crude + $VIX & Bitcoin up the most... https://t.co/lK9FCWy5TY
Weak Q4 GDP Gives Fed Leeway to Cut Rates
U.S. GDP grew by only 0.7% in the fourth quarter, compared with the forecast of 1.4%. The pace of growth has slowed noticeably. In such a situation, the Federal Reserve has more room not to keep interest rates high for too...
Germany's 2026 Growth Slips, Inflation Rises Amid Stagflation
Good Morning from Germany, where economic forecasts are turning increasingly stagflationary amid the conflict in the Middle East. The Ifo Institute has lowered its growth forecast for Germany for 2026 from 1% to 0.8% and raised its inflation projection from...
Core PCE Inflation Jumps to 3.1% in January
Core prices rose 0.36% in January in the PCE index (Nov and Dec price levels were revised up slightly), raising the 12-month inflation rate to 3.1% This index had fallen to 2.6% in April 2025 Headline was +0.28% in January and 2.8%...
Core P
Just In: PCE Inflation was 2.8% in January, a bit below expectations. But Core PCE Inflation was 3.1%, the highest since March 2024. **PCE Inflation could easily hit 4% this spring due to the war in Iran** It's notable that PCE...
OPEC Analyst Explains Iran War Impact on Oil
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 In the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I spoke with @ncitayim for a view on the Iran war from one of my absolute favourite OPEC and Middle East oil analysts, reporting from the Gulf. (Link...
Core PCE on Target; Headline Inflation Eases Below
January Core PCE prints at 3.1% as expected - previously 3.0% y/y Headline PCE prints at 2.8% vs 2.9% expected- previously 2.9% y/y
S&P Rebounds From Low, Eyes 6740 Resistance Amid Hawkish Fed
$SPX hit a 6636 low Monday and bounced to 6670, and now we’ll see if early strength holds or fades with 6740ish as resistance. #FOMC is the next move as the Fed turned more hawkish with inflation and higher...
Cuban President Confirms First US Talks on Cooperation
NEW: The president of #Cuba for the first time CONFIRMS talks with the US, which he says are to identity areas of bilateral cooperation. He's giving his SECOND press conference in as many months, addressing the problems of the current energy...
Extended Hormuz Closure Accelerates Alternative Energy Shift
What are the longer term ramifications of an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz? Growth in alternative energy sources? What else?
War Tension Squeezes Equities, Bonds as Oil Stabilizes
The War Rages On; Equities and Bonds Don't Like It,: The war and rhetoric around it keep investors on edge, even though WTI and Brent are consolidating now after reaching marginal new four-day highs. The greenback is firm against the...
Dollar Nears Breakout, Taming Global Import Prices
While everyone focuses on volatile oil prices, the dollar is nearing a breakout higher. An appreciating dollar tightens monetary policy outside of the US and helps tame import prices. Many other implications as well. https://t.co/69NGmJLCB1
Quiet Markets, Massive Week: 7 Central Bank Rate Decisions
Markets are quiet today but there's a BIG week ahead with 7 central bank rate decisions including the Fed Here's my take on it all 👇
Crude Steadies, GBP Sinks, JPY Nears
Crude is consolidating despite the war showing no signs of relenting. Disappointing UK Jan GDP pushes $GBP to the bottom of G10 fx today. Proximity of JPY160 turns mkt cautious and $JPY is faring best. See https://t.co/Xdwqs68Eew https://t.co/aB4Tekr0wK
Get Ready for US PCE Data in 3 Steps
US PCE Data is set to release today. Lets prepare for it in 3 simple steps using @mrkt_ai terminal. Comment "playbook" & i will dm you the MRKT access link
U.S. Energy Firms Begin Re‑entering Iraq After War
We've all heard the claim that the Iraq War was a war for oil, but American energy firms barely wanted to touch Iraq after Saddam fell. Things might be shifting now. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/5iqjffXWpl #crudeoil #iraq #chevron #geopolitics https://t.co/tn3Jsb1BTc
Iran Conflict Threatens China's Small-Scale Oil Refineries
NEW ODD LOTS: What War in Iran means for the 'teapot' oil refineries in China. @tracyalloway and I talk to @Erica_Downs_ about what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for Chinese energy security. https://t.co/ZdGwLQJV8E
US Eases Russian Oil Bans as Iran Fuels Price Surge
Great @business reporting by @DanielPFlatley on US moves to ease restrictions on buying Russian oil. This is all backwards. Russia and Iran are making money while the Strait of Hormuz is shut and global oil prices spike. Iran's oil exports...
2026 Mirrors Past Crises: Bitcoin, Oil, Yields Peak
Is 2026 Next After 9/11, 2008, 2022? Bitcoin Slides - This year may be shaping up like some combination of 2001, 2008 and 2022, with similar risk-asset-reversion implications. Crude oil's spike to its $147-a-barrel peak in 2008 accelerated the Great...
Iran's War-Era Oil Exports Surge, Prices Likely Drop
According to this excellent @WSJ story, Iran is today exporting more oil than before war broke out. That’s insane. First order of business for the US Navy is to stop any and all ship traffic out of Iran. That won’t...
Iran's Oil Surges Amid War; Call to Blockade Ports
Iran is a gas station posing as an Islamic Republic. Iran's oil exports are reportedly up since war broke out. That's nuts. First order of business must be to blockade Iran's ports. If that hurts China, all the better. Have...
Putin Gains Economic Windfall From Middle East Oil Surge
"Arguably the person who benefits most from this chaos is President Putin, who receives an unexpected economic windfall from higher oil prices which will help him to continue his war on Ukraine." Me, last week. https://t.co/cCBaBOBPfB
War Adds $3‑6 per Barrel Daily, White House Stumped
COLUMN: The White House is running out of ways to curb rising oil prices. "... My working assumption is that the oil market will add $3 to $6 a barrel to the headline price for every day — every single...
Miliband Vows Zero Tolerance for Oil Profiteering
Taking action on fuel prices Oil price profiteering will not be tolerated, says Miliband https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crk83e2g65no
Thai Baht Slumps: Highest Energy Trade Deficit in Asia
THB has weakened the most in Asia since the Iran War & the reason being is that it has the highest deficit of energy trade in Asia as a share of GDP. Korean won is second.
IMF Report Swells to 14 Million Words, More Jargon
By 2022, the cumulative text of the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions reached about 14 million words, with increasingly technical jargon to describe the growing web of cross-border tools. https://t.co/YN9GeT7uhG
Trump’s Canada Threat Cuts US Visits by 25%
President Trump’s rhetoric about a possible acquisition of Canada and escalating trade tensions led to a 25% decline in Canadian visits to the US in 2025. https://t.co/dqBIGoRt7G
Eurozone Phillips Curve Remains Significant Yet Flatter with Regional Data
The Phillips curve in the euro area remains statistically significant but is relatively flat and linear once regional data on unemployment are used, and it becomes even flatter when national inflation expectations are properly accounted for. https://t.co/tBUWZAT6n4
Eurozone Price Change Frequency Spikes to Double Pre‑
Before 2020, the monthly frequency of price changes was stable at around 8.2% across 9 major euro countries. It then rose sharply in 2022, averaging about 12% that year and peaking at 15.7% in January 2023, nearly double the pre-pandemic...
Trump Pushes Russia Into Deeper Dependence on China
“Trump’s choices are pushing Russia into unprecedented vassalage to China. Energy trade in renminbi, sanctions and China’s industrial dominance will leave the Kremlin with few options but to crawl even further into Beijing’s pocket,” writes @AlexGabuev https://t.co/ZQonXr6p8v