Core Services Inflation Spreading Across over Half of Categories
Further proof we have an inflation problem, even before Iran. Core PCE services (ex-housing) shows more and more broadening out of higher prices. Proportion of 105 categories with 3%+ y/y inflation Dec '19: 26% Jun '22: 69% Jan '25: 53% Jan '26: 59% https://t.co/nA65sTTb6A
Tariffs Fail to Boost Manufacturing Jobs, May Reduce Payrolls
"One thing becoming clear: tariffs on foreign imports didn't result in an increase in manufacturing payrolls (and may have directly resulted in the opposite)." 🙀 https://t.co/zvrbKgPxg3 https://t.co/h5DLBYPjf6
IEA Warns Hormuz Crisis Could Trigger Historic Oil Disruption
‘The largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market’: IEA’s take on the Hormuz crisis https://t.co/H9zKo9tCi4
US Lifts Anti-Dumping Duties on 13 Italian Pasta Brands
"The US Department of Commerce has cut anti-dumping duties on 13 Italian pasta brands following an investigation into alleged export undercutting, Italy's Foreign Ministry announced." https://t.co/2KrLcSuyUY https://t.co/7S8ssbunhj
Risk‑Off Signals Rise, Yet Core Market Levels Hold
Today felt like a textbook risk-off session. Weak GDP revision. VIX back above 20. Short-term breadth rolling over. Dollar up. Rates pushing toward 4.3%. Oil surging. In CHART THIS I walk through what’s actually changing — and what isn’t. Six viewer questions. Clear levels. No drama. Watch...
Growth or Oil Shock Could Cripple S&P 500
GS: A moderate growth shock could see the S&P 500 drop to 6300, while a severe oil supply shock could trigger a 19% decline to 5400. https://t.co/87Poznn4vR
War Disruption Drives Hawkish Stance Across G10 Central Banks
New weekly drops. The war's disruption shapes the investment climate. Hawkish holds by seven of the 8 G10 central banks that meet. RBA could hike. Brazil had indicated a cut before the war. Still seems reasonable....
Hawkish Rate Shift Triggers Lower Growth Expectations
GS: A hawkish rate move has coincided with a decline in the market's pricing of economic growth https://t.co/JO5RIgmjDP
Strait Closure Sparks 360% Surge in Freight Diversions
I missed this project44 press release from earlier this week - Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers 360% Surge in Ocean Freight Diversions https://t.co/u3NrIui3y3 project 44 Insights - https://t.co/fZoIuMEoDt
Iranian Tankers Resume Loading at Kharg Despite US Strikes
Iranian tankers back to loading at Kharg this morning despite yesterday’s US strikes on the island, which currently stages the vast majority of Iranian exports.
Middle East War Drives Policy Swings as G10 Banks Convene
Week Ahead: Eight of the G10 Central Banks Meet, Maybe One Moves: The Middle East War dominates the investment climate. The inflationary implications are first order considerations and there has been a large swing in expectations of central bank policy…...
Markets Adjust: Bitcoin’s Smaller Dip After Iran Strike
The US struck Iran's Kharg Island last night — the hub for 90% of Iran's oil exports. Oil jumped $5 a barrel. The S&P 500 flipped negative. Gold fell. And Bitcoin? It dropped 3.5% from its session high and held...
Weekly Global Economy Snapshot: Key Trends in Charts
What happened in the global economy this week — in charts https://t.co/QMU9rVUUcj via @MollySmithNews https://t.co/qKUd7bcnPi
LPG Tankers Cross Hormuz After Tehran‑Delhi Talks
One-off or sign of easing? Two tankers transporting LPG (think the butane canisters) have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the last few hours on the way to India. The crossing happened after gov-to-gov talks between Tehran and New Delhi....
Starmer's Economic Revival Hopes Dim Amid Iran War
Starmer’s hopes to revive the UK economy are fading as Iran war drags on https://t.co/bp1l1ELBA0 via @alexwickham https://t.co/xDIqYkHO1e
Oil Shocks Ripple Through Every Product, Exposing Economic Vulnerability
Why oil shocks still hit everything we buy. “We should be very concerned, the longer the conflict lasts, the more prices will rise and ripple through the economy.” From petrol to plastics, another fossil fuel crisis shows how exposed economies remain...
Germany's
Good Morning from Germany, which investors increasingly see as one of the losers of the current oil shock. Germany’s share of global mkt cap has fallen <1.95%, lowest level since early 2025. There is growing concern that persistently high energy...
Trump's Actions Push Russia and China Closer Together
.@AlexGabuev in FT op-ed: “‘The one thing you never want to happen is you never want Russia and China uniting. I’m going to have to un-unite them’…Fourteen months into his second presidency, Trump’s actions are having precisely the opposite...
U.S. Better Equipped for Prolonged Oil Price Surge
Washington Post: Years spent preparing for a global energy crisis have left the country and its economy better positioned than most to endure a long-term hike in the cost of oil and gas. https://t.co/Z93avoq3HM
China’s Gulf Moves Accelerate De‑dollarization, Curb US Sanctions
Did we just accelerate de-dollarization, strengthen China’s position as a future security guarantor/mediator in the Gulf and long-term weaken the power of US financial sanctions all in two weeks? https://t.co/A3fRsI7R5i https://t.co/H83a474m3Y
Iran Shifts Oil Payments to Yuan, Undermining Dollar Dominance
Iran has stated it will allow tankers through the Strait of Hormuz - but only for shipments paid for in Chinese yuan rather than US dollars. The dollar is THE standard currency of the fossil fuel trade. Iran didn’t just announce...
India Poised to Lead Amid New Global Oil Crisis
The global map is being redrawn, and India is right at the center of the new oil crisis. With our non-aligned status, we are in a rare position to take the lead. Dive into the full analysis of what happens...
Middle East Crisis Threatens Global Heavy‑Industry Supply Chains
"The Narrowing Straits: Why the Middle East Crisis is a Fault Line for Global Industry" - my own expert comentary on a recent interview with Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc, and the impact on key heavy industries and supply chains they...
US LNG Demand Soars, Venture Global Expands Plant
MORE US LNG EXPORTS 🇺🇸 🚢 Venture Global will move forward with an $8.6 billion expansion of its third LNG plant in Louisiana Global demand for US LNG is surging as the war in the Middle East cuts off shipments from...
Contentious Fed Decision Will Heighten Market Concerns About Iran
Video of what I'm watching for next week: A Contentious Fed Decision Will Add to Market's Iran Concerns https://t.co/Ikll4zvVyq
Oil Shocks Lift Risk Premiums, Weaken Markets, Curb Inflation
Risk premium rising across equities and credit while intraday correlation between oil and equities around -80%. Oil shocks push the tide out and expose underlying weak links. The peak in oil in June 2022 explained the first low in markets...
Canada's Public Workforce Surges, Private Growth Stalls
Public sector employment in Canada grew 27% over the past decade. The private sector grew 13%. Today, roughly one in five Canadian workers is in the public sector. Self-employment continues to decline. Here is the uncomfortable math: Step 1: Businesses create goods and...
Iran Stands Firm; China Faces Bigger Oil Risks
The threat to destroy Kharg Island won't convince Iran to back down. But it might convince China to convince Iran to back down. Oil prices may harm the US, but an actual oil shortage or global recession will hurt China.
Gold’s Safe‑Haven Appeal Fading: Overlooked Factor Emerging
Is the gold rush over? The safe haven appeal seems to be fizzling out in gold and silver, the reason is probably something most are overlooking.
Strait of Hormuz Blockade Endangers Fertilizers, Aluminium, Plastics, Helium
It's not just oil and gas. What other crucial commodities are under threat from the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz? Fertilisers, aluminium, plastics, helium and more. https://t.co/H1tRNgqzv6
China Ties Strengthen, Boosting Korean Tourism Despite Geopolitics
The geopolitical impact might be negative, but I reckon this brings South Korea even closer to the PRC, probably bullish Chinese tourism to Korea
Fed Leadership Split Complicates Inflation and Labor Outlook
My take on the difficultly navigating the splintering within Fed leadership amidst tension of inflation and the labor market.
Israel Admits Targeting Civilian Sites in Lebanon, 773 Dead
ISRAEL CONTINUES BOMBING LEBANON. Today, for the first time, the Israelis admitted targeting civilian infrastructure. Since March 2nd, Lebanon’s Health Ministry reports that at least 773 Lebanese have been killed by Israeli airstrikes. https://t.co/RtUAb9jgfW
Supreme Court Declares Trump Tariffs Illegal, Refunds Delayed
The Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs were ILLEGAL. Now, the US government is slow walking the refunds Americans are due. Once the government illegally taxes you, it’s hard to get a legal refund. https://t.co/crKDhGMBIe
Prime‑age Participation Rates Hit Record Highs Despite Aging Workforce
The *number* outside the labor force will organically rise as the population ages. It says *zero* about labor market health. A better measure is the participation *rate* of prime-age individuals, which excludes those likeliest to be retired or students. It's near...
Recession Bets Surge to Four‑month High on Prediction Markets
Love them or hate them, prediction markets still have some pointed utility. Betting on a #recession this year has hit a four-month high https://t.co/8ycrvzy65o
Q4 GDP Halved, Inflation Rises: Stagflation Hits Markets
The number Wall Street was dreading arrived today. Q4 GDP was revised down to 0.7% — literally half the initial reading — while core PCE inflation climbed to 3.1%, its highest since early 2024. The S&P 500 responded by hitting...
War on Iran Spikes Fertilizer Prices, Fuels Farmer Backlash
MORE COLLATERAL DAMAGE FROM THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN: Fertilizer shipments from the Persian Gulf are stuck. Fertilizer prices have jumped about 30%. US FARMERS ARE STARTING TO TURN AGAINST TRUMP. https://t.co/IwXKoWCUj0
Bank of Canada Cuts Rates, yet Yields Rise
tonight at your cocktail 🍸 party when someone says that interest rates are coming down and the central bank has you covered, tell them the @bankofcanada has dropped rates 7 times since Sep/24 and 5 & 10 yields are higher...
Treasury Tapped Parallel Dollar Market, Used $2.5B, Made Profit
👀 💵Remember the fuss about Bessent conducting an ESF-funded fx swap exchange to support the Argentinian peso back in October 2025? We now have the details of those transactions via the quarterly reporting Congress requires for Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund operations. They...
2026 Mortgage Rates Show Record‑Low 42‑bp Spread
Since 2000, the average year has seen an 87 bps range between the highest 30-year fixed mortgage rate reading in the calendar year and the lowest reading So far in 2026, that range has been 42 bps Lowest this year: 5.99% Highest...
Underlying PCE Inflation Hits 3.2% in January
The PCE-based ecumenical underlying inflation measure was 3.2% in January. This is the median of 24 numbers: 8 concepts measured over 3, 6 and 12 months.
New Maritime Routes May Persist Post‑War as Backup Services
Ocean carriers and new ways to serve the Middle East with the Strait closed. How much of the new approaches will be maintained at war’s end? At the minimum as viable secondary services to keep them functioning.
Q4 Domestic Inflation Rises to 3.8%, Worst Since 2022
BEA also released its revised GDP data for Q4, including the Price Index Gross Domestic Purchases, broadest inflation index for domestic inflation, which excludes import prices. It was revised up today to 3.8% for Q4, worst since Q4 2022 https://t.co/ATVMhOch9V...
Wolf Outlines Three Possible Paths for Global Economy
Martin Wolf on three scenarios for the world economy. This and other topics in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/tE1z5pmzN6
Sachs Warns Israel‑US Conflict Triggers Global Economic Crisis
Distinguished Columbia Univ. Prof. Jeff Sachs on the war in Iran: "Like it or not, the world is going into a profound economic crisis. Israel set this off together with the US, and the world will pay a fearsome price for...
Secure Strait of Hormuz to Ensure Stable Oil Prices
Energy, especially oil, is the backbone of every economy. As I said, a stable oil price, $55 to $70, keeps the global economy running smoothly. But it’s about more than price, it’s about keeping the two-mile stretch of the Strait...
US‑Iran Conflict and Monetary Policy Dominate Next Week’s Market Outlook
It looks like we will be focused on two things next week: 1. The economic impact of the US-Iran conflict 2. Monetary Policy Look at the laundry list of central bank decisions on tap... All of them are expected to hold, but we...
SPX Down 5%; Watch for 10% Trigger
SPX has already dropped 5%. If it continues to drop to 10%+, we run the risk of entering into the negative feedback loop I have mentioned. As of right now, the negative feedback loop has not happened, as layoffs/initial claims remain...
ECB's Villeroy Says Rate Hike Not Timely Next Week
ECB’s Villeroy says it isn’t the right moment to raise rates next week https://t.co/fTpHRzxngU via @WHorobin https://t.co/zJ4KHlvUAN