Dubai Flight Halt Threatens Elite’s Tax‑haven Allure
*DUBAI TEMPORARILY SUSPENDS FLIGHTS AT INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT For years, Dubai, the UAE and Qatar have presented themselves as bulletproof tax havens and sanctuaries for the global elite. Just four years ago, Qatar hosted the 2022 World Cup, signaling the region's arrival as the world’s playground. Today, the reality has shifted. These past two weeks have severely tested that reputation. For the ultra-wealthy, 0% tax means little if physical safety is at risk. The reputational damage may be permanent if the elite begin to rethink living or visiting there for good.
US‑China Summit Likely to Shake Semis, Data Centers, EV
China, semis, data centers, EVs I think all of these go when the US & China meet next week
US and Chile Launch Talks to Secure Critical Minerals
US-Chile critical minerals talks open to secure copper, lithium, and rare earth supply chains. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/us-chile-critical-minerals-talks-kick.html
USDJPY Near 160; Intervention Unlikely Amid Rising Yields
$USDJPY near 160, going to be tough for an intervention to be effective with the winds pushing yields up thanks to oil (as goes the case for any major energy importer at the moment)
China’s Iran Oil Choice Shapes US Exit Strategy
Context is that China needs oil from Iran. The cacth22 is: 1. China helps: USA wants to get a fast offramp and avoid boots on the ground - will happen if China helps (then Russia is in a Catch22). China is unlikely...
Trump Threatens China Trip Delay over Hormuz Blockade
Donald Trump says he could delay his trip to China later this month if Beijing doesn’t help in unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. — FT
Hormuz Closure Risks Boost Long Volatility Gains
They had all weekend to think something up. The best they could come up with is sailing into a turkey shoot… Think it’s time to accept the obvious. Hormuz opens when the Iranians want it to open. Only way Trump can...
Inaction Costs: US Will Reward Allies, Punish Bystanders
Maybe sounds like just words, but countries not chipping in here are running a risk. Let us look at the US perspective: 1. Iran is a terroist state, that has been supporting terroism for decades, had a 'death over...
Korea Faces Economic Shock and Shifting Security Guarantees
hard to be korea right now fuel price cap - first oil intervention since 1997 THAAD system forcibly relocated away (historians estimate korea has taken 0.5% hit to GDP from china) stock mkt down 10% china/NK deterrence weakening security guarantees will likely change forever
Iran Risk Unpriced, Threatening GCC and AI Tech
I will keep repeating: IRAN RISK NOT PRICED IN https://t.co/4PcaQ3ES81 GCC countries at risk and with it our Tech darlings #AI
Few Missiles and Drones Can Keep Hormuz Shut Indefinitely
Question for all the maritime insurance experts out there - what will it take for the large P&I clubs to reactivate coverage through the Strait of Hormuz? One of my takeaways from this conflict is how few missiles and drones it...
Strait of Hormel Closed, Chili Spikes to $200 per Barrel
the Strait of Hormel remains closed and the price of chili has surged to $200 a barrel
Qatar, Kuwait Will Dump US Assets Amid GDP Collapse
If their GDP drops 14%, do you think Qatar and Kuwait will: a) Slash government outlays (thereby risking domestic unrest), or; b) Sell USTs & US equities “until their hands bleed” to raise USDs to buy needed goods to try to...
Oil Demand Loss Hurts Big Economies More than Small
At risk of sounding unkind, for the global economic impact, it matters where oil demand destruction happens. The GDP hit — and spillover — isn’t the same if it occurs in a small economy like, say, Bangladesh, than if it happens...
Promises of 5% Growth Ignore Looming Debt Reality
January 2025: "Don't worry about the $2 trillion deficit and the rising national debt. We are going to grow our way out of it with 5% Real GDP." Today: "Wait till next year." https://t.co/D1ZtfYxn0r
IEA vs Market: Hormuz Closure Impact Dispute
Iran's supreme leader says the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed. Tankers are burning near Basra. The market is treating this like a temporary disruption. The IEA is treating it like a structural one. Someone is wrong. https://t.co/VEZoi3Wz44
Global Tensions Trigger Fertilizer Shortage, Food Price Surge
More supply chain extension of Iran war. China halts fertilizer exports. How does Trump’s trade war with Canada and Canadian potash fit here for US farmers? Which can affect the E2E food supply chain. That supply-inflation loop.
Crude Oil's 48% Surge Marks Second‑Largest 2‑Week Jump
Crude Oil Futures started trading in 1983. The 48% spike over the past 2 weeks was the 2nd biggest 2-week % increase in history. From $67/barrel to $99/barrel... Video: https://t.co/P29a0c5vMR
U.S. War Deepens Iran's Dictatorship, Raises Gas Prices
He puts his name on everything, so let’s make sure his name is on this, too: —> “Overall, it has not toppled Iran’s dictatorship and might have strengthened it. We helped install a younger supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who may be...
Government Claims 20% Health Insurance Cost Drop—Absurd
The most absurd number in CPI? According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 20% over the last 5 years... https://t.co/Iw2M0izZim
Trump’s Erratic Demands Jeopardize Hormuz Cooperation, Iran Outlasts
It’s hard to see how international countries will cooperate with Trump on keeping the Strait of Hormuz open after 14 months of erratic demands. It’s one thing for Trump to complain about paying for European protection (somewhat understandable) but asking...
Iran Conflict Triggers Massive Flight Cancellations and Higher Fares
The Iran war has forced the cancellation of TENS OF THOUSANDS of flights across the Middle East. Rerouted flights are burning more fuel and pushing ticket prices higher. TRUMP-NETANYAHU = A WAR TAX. https://t.co/xDKppRjcdi
Trump’s Naive Belief: Decapitation Yields Compliant Iran
Distinguished military historian Phillips O’Brien on the war in Iran: "[Trump] was boasting about American military power... He thought this would be relatively straightforward, [like] the Venezuela model... Kill the leadership, and get a leadership that is much more compliant." https://t.co/gV29tXCQYl
All Five Asset Classes Align: Stagflation Signals Return
Gold up. Oil up. Bonds down. Stocks wobbling. Dollar flat. When this many asset classes move at once, the market is repricing the entire macro regime. This pattern has a name: stagflation. The last time all five conditions aligned simultaneously was 1979-1980. What...
Markets Reset, Not Correct, as Macro Regime Shifts
Gold up. Oil up. Bonds down. Stocks wobbling. Dollar flat. When everything moves at once, the market is repricing the entire macro regime. That's not a correction. That's a reset. https://t.co/tyjpVcTUuH
Fujairah Resumes Oil Loadings, Prices Set to Rise
UAE's Fujairah resumes oil loadings after attack, sources say. Oil is still expected to open higher when trading resumes tonight https://t.co/PPrPe2zMLy
Goldman Sees 25% US Recession Risk as Oil Hits $100
Goldman just raised US recession probability to 25%. Oxford Economics says $140 oil triggers recession in the eurozone, UK, and Japan. Brent is at $100 and the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. https://t.co/7yjIA43hkG
Israel's Occupation Devastates West Bank and Gaza Economies
Take a look at what Israel's Reign of Terror in the occupied West Bank & Gaza has done to their economies. And we don't even have 2025 data, yet. https://t.co/AruQRDwOZD
Australia Seeks Foreign Gas Investment Amid Middle East Turmoil
Australia is lobbying for more overseas investment in its gas resources as the Middle East conflict riles energy markets 🇦🇺💰 https://t.co/GpZPpkrjwB https://t.co/pVWyatVjys
Historian Calls US Iran War Strategy Shoddy
Military historian Phillips O’Brien on the problems the US is facing in executing its war in Iran: "It reveals a lot of the shoddy nature of the strategic planning." https://t.co/qS1gZLapCT
Stocks Typically Bottom Five Months Before GDP Rebounds
As recession fears mount, remember that stocks bottom ~5 months before GDP inflects. JPMAM https://t.co/R8swcw5iFp
Quant Models Spot Energy Upside, Uranium Long‑Term Play
Chatted w/ @TheKEReport this weekend about the outlook for financial markets amid the ongoing war -- and what our quant models are signaling...
Alternative Fed Tightening Tools, Not Rate Hikes, Curb Inflation
FWIW while many are suggesting Fed Rate Hikes and markets are beginning to price that as well. We much prefer 1. Ending RMO 2. Addressing the uneven distribution of reserves by establishing a minimum reserve requirement to protect the high...
US Now Settles Trade Deficit with Gold Exports
3rd month out of the last 4 that the US' biggest export has been gold. Only time that's happened in at least 20 years (& probably ever.) US is de facto net settling a portion of trade its trade deficit...
Mark Carney’s Hidden Post‑American Economic Blueprint for Canada
Mark Carney’s Post-American Economic Strategy Phew. This essay took a lot of work. The argument is simple: PM MarkJCarney has an economic strategy for Canada, it's just not obvious. I try to connect the dots for readers. https://markhamhislop.substack.com/p/mark-carneys-post-american-economic
Central Banks Delay Hikes in Supply Shocks, Await Wage Inflation
The supply shock move in Energy prices, fertilizer prices, and food prices IS a Rate hike which slows the economy and is disinflationary to goods and services that are not energy and food. A dual mandate central bank doesn't hike...
Trump and Netanyahu Drive Dollar Dedollarization Amid Iran War
Trump-Netanyahu orchestrated dollar dedollarization, debasement & devaluation in full view as collateral damage to their war on Iran, Lebanon, et al. #ByDesignOrDefault
IEA Nations Confirm Massive Oil Release, Need Hormuz Opening
IEA countries have now confirmed their contributions to our largest ever oil stock release This brings unprecedented additional volumes of oil to the market from 16 March onward. However, opening the Strait of Hormuz is vital for a return to stable...
Global Economy Faces Growing Complexity and Uncertainty
Please find below the links to my weekly look at what has become a much more complicated and uncertain situation for the global economy and markets. linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-shp3e/?trackingId=vXKBwDM3QxqdFHY2kfbOrQ%3D%3D&lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_detail_base%3BXcJdDTIXTiGfbxaVzWx6xA%3D%3D https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-372?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web #economy
War on Iran Sparks Unprecedented Supply Chain Uncertainty
The US-Israeli war on Iran, is heavily disrupting fertilizer, aluminum, semiconductor inputs, and other key industrial supplies. Supply chain expert Nick Vyas: “We have created equal if not greater uncertainty than during the pandemic.” TRUMP’S WAR = AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMS. https://t.co/zziB6qAr5L
Iran Attacks Hint at Sixth Shock, but Prices Modest
"This month’s attacks on Iran point to a sixth global energy supply shock, but the rise in crude oil prices to date does not represent a shock of the magnitude seen in earlier episodes. At $100bbl, Brent crude is less...
Oil Shock Boosts Dollar, Weakens Euro and Asian Currencies
I don’t know how much clearer I could have been in the latest roundup. 1) the price of oil doubled in a week and the Hormuz closure is 100x works for European and Asian markets. Therefore as long as it...
UK January Growth Stalls; Starmer Prioritizes Russia over Economy
The UK economy showed NO GROWTH in January. No surprise. RUSSOPHOBE Starmer is too busy picking fights with Russia than fixing Britain's TANKING economy. https://t.co/Wz4vL8LULC
Oil Shock Resilience Masks Sectoral Strain on Airlines, Farms, Autos
The WSJ reports: "The U.S. economy is less exposed to oil shocks today than in prior decades." But, today’s economy shows strain in airlines, farms, autos. Airlines face soaring fuel costs. Farmers face higher fertilizer prices. Rising gas prices threaten US autos. https://t.co/bOpYCs0pCD
Iran Conflict Freezes U.S. IPO Pipeline This Week
Iran war chills the IPO market: No companies expected to price in the U.S. this week
Gas Prices Surge 23% Since War Began
The @wsj on one of the most sensitive prices across the economic, political and social landscape: “Average regular gasoline prices nationally were around $3.68 a gallon on Saturday, according to AAA, a 23% increase from before the war started at the...
Central Banks Brace for Inflation as Iran War Spikes Oil
The world’s top central banks are about to confront a fresh inflation threat as the war in Iran jolts oil https://t.co/dTDfbxKZsB via @jrandow https://t.co/tBFHewSb2m
US Oil Exports Could Spark Overwhelming Ban Demand
I’m really concerned that when people take this one step further and learn that the US is actually selling oil to other countries that the public’s demand for an export ban will become overwhelming.
Global Shipping Chaos Raises Costs for Everyone
More than 100 cargo ships are stuck in the Persian Gulf. Nearby ports are packed with redirected cargo. Costs are being driven up globally. NOBODY IS SPARED FROM THE TRUMP- NETANYAHU WAR TAX. https://t.co/EF8fmqKgiV
US and China Officials Meet in Paris to Plan Summit
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng began talks in Paris on Sunday to map out plans for a leaders’ summit later this month https://t.co/ALjOia2Bim