Trump's Oil Price Push only Stalls US Shale Output
The funny thing about the Trump admin trying SO hard to jawbone down the price of oil is that the main thing they're accomplishing, beyond a temporary political reprieve, is a delay in the production response from US shale producers.
Middle East Conflict Ends Expected BoC Rate Cuts
The Stage Was Set For Bank Of Canada Cuts Later This Year: That's All Gone Now Today's CPI Report would have provided cover for the BoC to cut its key rate at the end of April or June but the War...
Hard-to-Shift Supply Chain Risks Loom Under Trump's 2026 Policies
With the easy bits of US-China supply chain decoupling now over, it is the hard-to-move parts that remain. Trump’s 2026 policy decisions have the potential to affect much of the world’s economic security. If he gets them wrong, the worst may...
SPY Preps for Inflation Data and Fed Decision
$SPY levels going into the week. On the agenda: - CPI & PPI Inflation Data (Wed) - FOMC / Interest Rate Decision (Wed) - Fed Press Conference (Wed)
Oil Spike Overblown, Prices Set to Fall Soon
Bessent says too much is being made of the run-up in oil prices from Iran's retaliatory measures to U.S.-Israel strikes, claiming coverage of the risks around the Strait of Hormuz is being amplified by anti-Trump media bias and is part...
Higher Rates, Free Market, Not Fed Cuts, Win
There's going to be a lot of people complaining this week when the Fed doesn't cut rates. Let them. It's the right decision. In fact, interest rates should be much higher than where they are today. The free market should...
Hormuz Closure Threatens Oil, Gas, Fertilizer, Food Security
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson on the GLOBAL IMPACT of the STRAIT OF HORMUZ: "You’ve now closed off 20% of the world’s oil supply, 25% of the world’s liquid natural gas, and 35% of the world’s urea... There's going to be...
Gas Prices Surge 25% in Just Two Weeks
National average of gas prices is up 73 cents since the war started 15 days ago (middle panel), or 25% (bottom panel). https://t.co/NhhuStQnOD
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Fed Must Erase 12% Excess Inflation Before Rate Cuts
The Fed should not even think about cutting rates again until the 12% additional inflation we've had since January 2020 above the 2% trendline is erased. There's no point in having an inflation target if you're not going to adhere...
Consumer Spending Now Driven by Top 10% Earners
This is 100% completely unsustainable as a society. Nearly 50% of all consumer spending now comes from the top 10% of earners. The bottom 80%? Their share keeps falling. This is why the economy can look strong in the data while millions of people...
Fertilizer Prices Surge 35%, Fueling Food Inflation
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since October 2022, rising 35% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. Video: https://t.co/pOPRl50mmA
Markets Stay Calm on 5-Year Inflation Outlook
Market relatively sanguine about longer term inflation. 5 year, 5 year forward inflation swap showing no angst despite crude elevating front short-term swaps https://t.co/b8Po5HE6EV
Dollar's Rise Is Modest; Will Fall Post‑war
The Dollar has risen against the G10 (lhs) and against EM (rhs), but - once you factor in that this shock is at least 3 times as big as Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine - it's trading quite soft. We're...
Mocking NATO Leaves America Isolated, Leadership Lost
You know how we say in Ukraine: now Trump has to eat the mess pie he was baking for others. You either support alliances, respect your friends and their interests, coordinate with them and thus benefit from partnerships with countries close...
First Non‑EU Fiscal Response Signals Upcoming Continental Action
First fiscal response out the block; tiny mind, but I suspect continental governments will not be far behind, as will the EU. Important for the ECB's reaction function too.
Iran Conflict Deepens Fed Rate Split, Fuels Inflation Worries
Fed officials were already before divided the Iran war over what to do about rates. Now the conflict threatens to entrench those positions and make it even harder to reach a consensus "Both sides are going to be able to say...
China Risks Belt‑Road Investments as US‑Israel Iran Conflict Escalates
"China Has a Lot to Lose in the U.S.-Israel War on Iran," my latest in @WSJ @WSJopinion The U.S.-Israel war against Iran isn’t only reshaping security and the balance of power in the Middle East. Its stakes are also high...
Embargo Iranian Oil, as Missed Russian Embargo Cost War
The big mistake the West made in 2022 was to not embargo Russian oil. That would have spiked oil prices further, but Russia's economy would have imploded and it likely wouldn't still be waging war in Ukraine. The lesson for...
China’s 90% Model: Subsidized Exports Decimate Global Competition
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐃𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 For three decades, I have advised over 50 Chinese companies and served on Chinese boards. I have watched American, German, and Japanese companies struggle to compete with Chinese imports. What they face is not competition. It is...
Trump Urged to Welcome Chinese Investment in U.S. Manufacturing
Trump Should Be Open to Chinese Investment in U.S. Manufacturing Private Chinese capital is being locked out of mutually beneficial opportunities. https://t.co/gKtY0mscVo
US, China Push to Seal Trade Talks Before Summit
US, China seek to wrap Paris talks on managed trade, agriculture deals for Xi-Trump summit Managed trade, tough sell in many quarters... https://t.co/XXu7CtHIdB
Trump Threatens Xi Summit Delay without Chinese Hormuz Aid
Trump Floats Xi Summit Delay If China Doesn’t Help in Hormuz “Head of state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable role in providing strategic guidance to China-US relations,” he added, without specifying a timeframe for the leaders’ meeting. https://t.co/2UjmNtyIUW
Neighbor Releases $2 Bn Frozen
This is from the end of December. Was this meant to lure Iran into negotiations? ran says $2bn of frozen assets released by neighboring country https://t.co/miz6slNXAM
Warsh Delay Helps Him, Harms Powell Amid Oil Shock
“Interestingly, any delay in Warsh’s confirmation is a gift to Warsh and a curse for Powell as the Fed now faces the challenge of managing yet another supply side shock with a president that views rate cuts as the answer...
Falling Metals Signal Strengthening Dollar Trend Over Daily DXY Fluctuations
Falling prices of precious metals are a signal that the dollar is getting stronger overall, even though today the DXY may be down a little. What really matters is the trend and not a day in the life of a...
India Buys Pricey Russian Oil Legally, Boosting Putin
Somewhere in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin is rubbing his hands. India is paying ~$99 a barrel for Russian crude Urals (including shipping costs). And since the US eased its sanctions on Russian crude, it's all legal.
Gold-to-Crude Ratio Hits Record, Signals Potential Peak
Historic Gold Stretch vs. Crude May Signal Peak - "Unsustainably high" describes the 79 barrels of WTI crude oil equal to an ounce of gold at the end of February. Only the collapse to negative crude prices in April 2020...
WTI and Dollar Slip, Markets Hope Exit Ramps Amid Conflict
April WTI is trading lower as is the US dollar. The market still seems hopeful that exit ramps are found shortly, even though the conflict escalated over the weekend. Many are skeptical of the unexpected gains in PRC data....
India, Russia, Iran War Issues Are Distinct, Not Conflated
There have been two major developments involving India, Russia, and the Iran war being conflated. These are two separate issues altogether. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/SjgRO1nWPF #iranwar #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/nhLc5LS8wH
No Policy Can Replace Hormuz Oil Flow Loss
I did not say there's nothing we can do to open the Strait of Hormuz. I said there are no policy options that can offset the loss of flow from the Strait of Hormuz.
Global Bear Market Spreads Across All Sectors and Nations
As the decline in the stock market gets more broad-based, people will wake up to the idea that it is really a bear market. The same is true at a country level. As more countries outside the US join the...
Drone Attack Threatens Dubai's Aviation‑Driven Economy
Dubai under serious stress. Airport Dubai atau DXB tutup akibat serangan drone berdekatan. Implications? •Home of Emirates, the world’s most profitable airline, pretax profit USD6.2b (31 Mar 25). •Dubai Airport is the 2nd busiest in the world. •The aviation sector amat penting,...
Shortening Conflict Drives Oil Prices Down, Prolonging Rises
Every time markets think this conflict lasts longer, oil prices rise. Anything that shortens it makes prices fall. A Trump TACO does that or a blockade of Iran's ports, which'll cause Iran's economy to implode, forcing the Mullahs to reopen...
U.S. Softens Ban on Uyghur Forced‑Labor Goods
“Amid the…turns in the Trump administration’s China trade policy, one feature has attracted little attention: the [U.S.] has apparently eased its efforts to block imports of goods made using the forced labor of China’s Uyghur population.” @economicsnoah https://t.co/C9UGkHv9WW
Belgian PM Urges Russia Normalization for Cheap Energy
Belgium’s PM Bart de Wever: “We must normalise relations with Russia and regain access to cheap energy. That is common sense. [...] We must end the conflict in the interest of Europe, without being naïve towards Putin.” https://t.co/BopPAyhKSL
Gulf Fertilizer Plants Handle One‑third of Global Trade
The Gulf region is home to some of the world’s largest fertilizer plants, with about one third of global trade in such nutrients going through the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/S3lcwCkFLM https://t.co/FU6QDYHKHD
Oil Shock Drives French Bond Yields to 2011 High
The oil-price shock is taking a bigger toll on European markets, particularly in fixed income, making the ECB's meeting this week arguably more interesting than the Fed's. Yields on French 10-year bonds are back up to the highest since 2011....
Trump, Xi Explore Formal Mechanisms to Manage US‑China Trade
Reuters, citing sources: “The two sides discussed the establishment of new formal mechanisms to help manage trade and investment between the world’s two largest economies that may be considered by Trump and Xi in Beijing, the sources said.” https://t.co/8xXdogaiRy
Iran Attacks Fujairah, Spares Saudi Pipeline Bypass
Iran has started a new phase of its oil war: Tehran is clearly going after the Strait of Hormuz bypass route, with Fujairah (UAE) coming under attack. But so far, the Saudi pipeline bypass hasn't been attacked (and neither the Yemeni...
UK Inflation Risk Mirrors 2011, Not 2022
UK inflation risk looks more 2011 than 2022 for the BOE https://t.co/YUsUko90Zt via @PhilAldrick https://t.co/pQSXwc2lvq
Global GDP Figures Overstated by up to 35%
This paper says India's GDP is overstated by 22%. It also says that Europe's GDP and China's GDP are both overstated by 35%.
US Says Oil Prices Will Rise Until Hormuz Reopens
U.S. government acknowledges oil prices will likely continue to rise until Strait of Hormuz is re.-opened: https://t.co/3Db7xAQBDO
Goldman Predicts Energy Shock Will Shrink Europe, UK Growth
Goldman on negative growth impact on Europe and UK from the energy shock > https://t.co/8QpnqMeUnL
China's 2026 Economy Starts Steady, Boosting Consumption Shift
China’s Economy Off to Steady Start in 2026 Amid Lowered Expectations—Better-than-expected performance in first two months of year opens space for Beijing to pursue goal of shifting toward consumption-led growth @ByXiaoXiao @TByGraceZhu https://t.co/KtqJ6NLc1z https://t.co/KtqJ6NLc1z
India's Energy Security Threatened by Iran War
Iran War Energy Crisis: How Long Will India Stay Exposed to Global Insta... https://t.co/JcyDp1BD9k via @YouTube
Saudi Reroutes Oil via Red Sea Amid Hormuz Closure
♦️Here’s a striking example of how a closure of the Strait of Hormuz can reshape global oil flows—and how Saudi Arabia can rapidly adapt by diverting supplies from its eastern fields to western Red Sea terminals. ♦️A VLCC oil tanker was...
2026 Equity Risk Premium Update for Practitioners Released
The equity risk premium (ERP) is an essential ingredient in hurdle rates in corporate finance, discount rates in valuation and expected returns in financial planning. In 2009, I pulled together everything I know about the ERP, in a paper that...
Central Banks Pause Rates Amid Oil, Middle East Risks
Central banks worldwide hold rates steady this week as they watch oil prices and Middle East tensions. The Fed's Powell leads his second-to-last FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/d9xKHu64X9
Soybean Outlook Dimmed as US‑China Talks Stall
Uncertainty returned to commodity markets on Sunday night and soybeans aren't happy with the latest US-China news. Not only may Trump delay his meeting w/ Xi, but the mention of China eyeing "non-soybean row crops" dampens hopes it will buy an...