Alba Cuts 19% Capacity to Safeguard Operations Amid Hormuz Disruption
March 15 (Reuters) - Aluminium Bahrain https://t.co/oYsWepGMNg, known as Alba, said on Sunday it had initiated a shutdown of three aluminium smelting lines accounting for 19% of its capacity to preserve business continuity amid ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
Greek Shipowners Sabotage EU Sanctions for Putin Profits
Greece' shipping oligarchs fatally undermined the maritime services ban that should've been in the EU's 20th sanctions package. They're loyal only to money. If that means helping Putin, they fall over themselves doing it. No one should celebrate them... https://t.co/LOEwsvkjYG https://t.co/xUJgZVccK2
India’s Gulf Oil Imports Vanish, Boosting Iranian, Russian Demand
India used to import 50% of its oil from Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE (blue). All this oil had to transit the Strait of Hormuz and - recently - this is down to zero. It's this massive hole that's...
Trump Forces Unpopular Northern Iraq Oil Export Resumption
Press the translate button. Remember what I mentioned before: The resumption of oil exports form Northern Iraq was forced by the Trump administration. None of the parties are happy, especially the KRG.
War Triggers Gulf’s Defense Surge and Pipeline Pivot
I was reading Ziad Daoud and Dina Esfandiary's analysis of how this war will change the Gulf. They argue that just as the 1990 invasion of Kuwait created a deep psychological rupture, the current missile strikes are threatening to repeat that...
Geopolitical Wars Drive Stocks Down as Oil Spikes
🔴Watch oil prices: In past geopolitical conflicts, stocks were negatively correlated with oil. The longer the conflict lasted and the higher oil prices went, the deeper the drawdown, with the worst being -19.3% during the 2011 Libyan Revolution 👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-iea-has-proposed-the-largest-emergency-oil-release-from-strategic-reserves-in-history
Dollar Debasement Spurs Gold, Silver Miner Upside
USA printing trillions to rebuild Gaza ($17B+ pledged), Venezuela ($100B+ oil), Cuba & Iran. Dollar debasement accelerates → inflation hedge essential. Gold & silver miners: leveraged upside on rising metals, undervalued now. https://t.co/X9WvAtyZxp
Fuel Oil Prices Spike, Threatening Container Shipping Costs
COLUMN: While the price of Brent and WTI crudes remain well below their record high, the cost of fuel oil has surged above the 2022 and 2008 peaks. The surge is a big problem for the workhorse of globalisation: the container...
Trump's Waning Focus Stalls US Ukraine Peace Push
NEW: The US-led peace process in Ukraine is fizzling out because Trump is losing interest and his war against Iran is easing pressure on Russia. “A pause has indeed appeared in the talks. The Americans have other priorities,” Kremlin spox...
Ge
Here it comes. Covering : - US Strike on Iran's Kharg Island - Impact on USOIL & trade idea with targets - Why Gold ( XAUUSD ) isn't moving higher & whats next for it - Stagflation update & its impact - US Indexes update &...
Tory Recklessness Sparked Inflation, Banking Crisis, Oil Embargo
In fact the high inflation and run on the pound that caused the bailout were the result of the previous Tory government's reckless fiscal and monetary loosening in a "dash for growth", a banking crisis caused by the Tory government's...
Global Debt Surges to Record $348 Trillion, Crisis Deepens
‼️Global debt CRISIS is reaching INSANE levels: World debt SPIKED +$29 trillion in 2025, to $348 trillion, the highest EVER. This was the 2nd LARGEST annual increase in HISTORY. Global government debt hit a record $107 trillion.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-dropped-amid-rising-ai-and-geopolitical-uncertainty-weekly-market-recap-trading-week-09-20-a312
Iran's Hormuz Blockade Catches White House Off Guard
As they said at the White House, "who could have imagined Iran would block the Straits of Hormuz?"
Iran's Inflation Hits 66.2%, World’s Third‑Highest
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 66.2%/yr. That's the world's THIRD HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/8Dw75zObyw
LNG Fleet Shifts to Asia, China Eyes US Supply
⭕️A large number of LNG carriers were diverted from Europe to Asia. Will China restarts buying US LNG? Map form @Kpler I added the red arrows
Oil’s Irreplaceable Role Spurs Pro‑Hydrocarbon Shift
Oil is the only commodity on Earth used in every single sector of every economy. Even our adversaries need it. The Strait of Hormuz is two miles wide, and Iran is threatening to mine it. Whether securing it costs $2...
Trump’s Waiver Ends Flawed Russian Oil Price Cap
By the way, by giving a waiver for Russian crude on water to be sold freely on the market, Trump single-handedly eliminated the "price cap." The "price cap" was one of the lowest-IQ policy decisions in recent years.
Betting Odds Show 15% Chance of US‑Iran Ceasefire
Betting markets are seeing the probability of a US-Iran ceasefire by the end of the month deflate to an extremely skeptical 15%... https://t.co/Brj4lTcqSK
Global Shift Toward China Signals US Decline
The second map (most of the world moving towards China and away from the US) is post-tariffs but pre-invasion-of-Iran. Will be interesting to see how this evolves. Probably not in a good direction for the US.
Iran's Alleged Strait Move: Face‑saving Bluff, Not Blockade
If true, this is actually a face-saving withdrawal by the Iranians. It lets them pretend to be mean to US & Israel without actually blocking the strait. But I doubt it’s true. https://t.co/xCTeY2zGRE
Hormuz Strait Will Eventually Open Despite Recession Fears
I know it won't come in time for the global economy to avoid a recession, but the world WILL eventually pry open Hormuz one way or another. Iran won't have this card indefinitely. This is not the White Mountains of...
Markets Dictate Tariffs, War, and Financial Stability
Article and podcast episode: The ‘TACO Trade’: How Markets Can Shape Tariff, War and Financial Stability Policy https://t.co/O3ySkt05wf
Iran Says only US, Israel Barred From Hormuz
Any country except for US and Israel can pass through Strait of Hormuz, Iranian Foreign Minister says: NY Post
Hormuz Shipping Halt Threatens Billions; Resume for All
Because some folks seem confused: I think it’s really bad that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is halted, and it would be better for pretty well everyone (except Russia) if traffic resumes It will be utterly miserable for billions of...
Oil Loss Anywhere Sends Prices Soaring Everywhere, U.S. Knows
A barrel of oil lost anywhere is a barrel lost everywhere. It’s a global market and acute scarcity in the Middle East/Asia will inevitably spike prices in North America as markets work to incentivize cargoes to fill the hole. US foreign policy...
Iran Says Hormuz Open, only US/Israeli Ships Barred
"Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Saturday said the Strait of Hormuz is open and that the strategic route is only closed to the US and Israeli vessels" Are ships and tankers moving? If not, then where is the problem? Look...
IEA Taps One-Third of Reserves, Biggest Release Since 1973
IEA just released 400M barrels from emergency reserves. That's one-third of their total stockpile. For context, the largest prior release was during the 1973 oil crisis. This is not normal. $WTI https://t.co/pSOwsqWZJ0
Tariffs Shift US‑China Trade Balance, Not Global Flow
A case study in how tariffs can change the bilateral trade balance but not the global trade balance -- the US is now importing a ton of computers, but essentially zero of those are registering in customs as Chinese made 1/...
Oil Spike and Strait Closure Cripple Emerging Markets
Emerging markets down 14% from February highs. The EM rally was built on dollar weakness. Then the Strait of Hormuz closed and oil rewrote the script. Oil at $100 is devastating for importers like India, South Korea, and Turkey. Even exporters need...
Hormuz Threat Lulls: No New Attacks, Interference Persists
🚨Mar 14 Hormuz Update🚨 1️⃣Confirmed attacks: 20 2️⃣Attacks last 24 hrs:0 3️⃣Passage last 24 hrs: 2 4️⃣Average passage: 138 5️⃣Electronic interference: widespread https://t.co/nQ4ZTet45o
Iran War Drives up Global Prices, Hitting Canada
For those of us fortunate enough to be far away and out of the line of fire, the impacts of the war in Iran are economic. Why is the war making the price of so many things more expensive? #canada🇨🇦...
Energy Crisis From Iran War Discussed Tomorrow on CNN
Tune in tomorrow when I’ll be discussing today’s energy crisis created by the Iran war with @FareedZakaria on GPS @CNN.
Key Macro Trends Reviewed and Forecast for March
Premium Users - Macro Week in Review/Preview March 13, 2026, on the blog and here https://t.co/2iKkxzCJa9
Yardeni Warns War‑driven Correction, US Credit Cracks
YARDENI: “.. three days after the war began, we concluded it might last longer, leading to a 10%-15% correction, and warned that we could not rule out a bear market. “.. we've become concerned that a weakening US economy might exacerbate...
Use a Simple Mental Model for the Oil Shock
A mental model for how to think about the current oil shock: As I said I’m sure 10 different economists have 10 differing econometric models on what price that flip occurs but you get the idea
Iran’s Hormuz Standoff Exposes Global Power Game
Ugly game theoretics at play in Iran. Teheran has found its pain point in Hormuz, Russia is happy as it gets to sell its 'sanctioned oil', China is flapping like a kite in a hurricane, Europe has an incentive to...
Trade on Macro Fundamentals, Not Noisy Economic Data
Don't stare at spot noisy reported economic data. Answer these questions at a high level. Directionally not precisely. Is the U.S. labor market healthy and labor is in demand Is the population growing Is the 6 month to a...
Hormuz Blockade Triggers Energy, Shipping, and Food Crises
🚨Strait of Hormuz Disruptions🚨 Implications of Global Trade and Development by @UNCTAD 1️⃣Energy Surge 2️⃣Soaring Shipping Crisis 3️⃣Insurance Spikes 4️⃣Fertilizer & Food Security 5️⃣Insurance Spikes & Higher Borrowing Costs https://t.co/SxnLDTDmwG
US Debt Costs, Not Iran, Pose Existential Threat
The biggest issue the US is dealing with right now isn’t Iran — it’s the cost of its own debt. Plain and simple: The government can’t afford a war at this stage, and higher interest rates are becoming an existential threat. https://t.co/mHVMQJMS82 https://t.co/yW1dmgDC7i
Fiat Currency Levels Dominate Markets; Gold Is Niche
It actually doesn’t make it a moot point. Bc single most important variable in global markets is relative level of fiat currencies. If you only care about gold, consider yourself fortunate to be in the .0001% of people on the...
Middle East War's Economic Fallout Explained
Catch me at 8:05am on the economic impact of the war in the Middle East #bbcwales #sundaysupplement Listen at: https://t.co/WBmMlC57rn https://t.co/TZIU8SNTCQ
FTPL Slope < 1 Reflects Expected Deficit‑repayment Dynamics
Excellent. In FTPL, one can interpret the slope as "what fraction of the deficits did people think would be repaid by later surpluses or lower interest costs?" and the error term as variation from a common value. A slope <...
High Leverage and Oil Shock Tighten Crisis Risks
There are parallels now to the lead-up to the last financial crisis, writes @JeffSnider_EDU Leverage is high, funds are gating withdrawals, and officials say it’s contained. Now add an oil shock. The range of outcomes is narrowing fast #OilMarkets #FinancialCrisis #CreditMarkets...
Double Standards: Free Trade for Us, Tariffs for Rivals
Free trade for my inputs; tariffs for my competitors. A tale as old as time.
Trump’s Kharg Strike: Desperate Gamble, War Beyond His Control
Trump's attack on Kharg was an act of desperation He needed a quick "win" to offset the perception that he's lost control of the war Opening Hormuz could take months or longer Oil & financial markets won't wait The War IS out of his...
Yuan Can't Fund Hormuz Oil Flows, Dollar Remains Essential
Paying in Yuan for Hormuz passage doesn't work, writes @biancoresearch Oil markets run on liquidity and deep capital markets. China’s financial system can’t absorb global oil flows, There’s no way to verify settlement currency at sea. #OilMarkets #Hormuz #DollarSystem #Geopolitics
Analysts' Oil Forecasts Serve Producers, Not Truth
One of the things I learned after Russia invaded Ukraine is that many commodity analysts are in bed with oil producers and ship owners. They forecast terrible oil price spikes and financial Armageddon to keep the West from being tough....
U.S. and Israeli Policies Breed Predictable Blowback
Wrong, it's not an 'ancient and rampant evil.' It's blowback and the tragic and predictable result of U.S. and Israeli foreign policy. Can we stop pretending that our actions have no consequences?
Iran’s Yuan Demand Threatens Petrodollar, Ships Bottlenecked
Did the Greek tanker owner pay in Chines yuan? What will Iran’s payment demand mean to the petrodollar? And the quantity of ships stuck in the Strait?
Iran's Warning Threatens UAE Ports, Strait Oil Flow
Iran telling civilians to get out of UAE ports. After the attack on Kharg. What will it mean to maritime, the Strait, and oil?