Core PCE Inflation Peaks at 3.1%, Surpassing CPI
Core PCE Inflation Hits 3.1%, Worst in 2 Years, in Unique Twist Blows way past CPI Inflation. Driven by Core Services. Energy spike is still to come. The Fed needs to pay attention https://t.co/ATVMhOch9V https://t.co/fBae4ie2QQ
Geopolitical Instability Acts as Economic Parasite, Raising Costs
Dr. Navarro is right: nations' "destabilizing behavior" boosts trade uncertainty and is a "a parasite on the global economy—quietly draining growth through slightly higher [] prices, transportation costs and production expenses year after year."
Iran's Real Power: Controlling the Strait of Hormuz
My take on Iran's biggest advantage in the war: "The US & Israel are making mincemeat out of Iran, but Iranians still hold their key card: the Strait of Hormuz, which remains shut down. A great friend in Dubai said he...
ECB's Panetta: Private Sector Drives Cross‑border Payments
ECB’s Panetta says the private sector is key in cross-border payments https://t.co/dYdaPPXjLl via @Alemrome https://t.co/dkpP47DCou
EU to Suspend Duty‑free Sugar Imports for a Year
EU is set to suspend some duty-free sugar imports for a year https://t.co/Air1ME1Muc via @LyubovEUWorld https://t.co/tBY6hUyKNr
Chemical Shortage Hits Asia as Naphtha Supply Dries Up
More than “Five Asian petrochemical plants have declared force majeure in the past ten days because their naphtha supply was cut off at the Strait of Hormuz. The emergency reserves are crude oil. The shortage is chemicals.”
Iran May Extort Oil Deals After $120 Price Surge
Why wouldn’t Iran wait until oil hits $120/barrel and then put out the word that if you’re friendly to them and pay them you can get your oil, mafia-style?
Fragmented Alliances Will Boost Global Security Risk Premium
"The ongoing rewriting of the rules of world order and the resulting fragmentation of global alliances in defense, trade and finance will raise the security risk premium across asset classes and geographies." @ctorresreporter writes in https://t.co/48SyYtQz8S
Pentagon's $11B Iran War Figure Grossly Understates True Cost
In the last week alone, the Pentagon estimates that the US spent $11 BILLION on the Iran war. WARNING: Pentagon estimates are always fiction and way below the real cost. WAR = COSTS AMERICANS AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/49t33aGlwH
Private Credit Risks Echo 2008 as Oil Spikes
Multiple headlines today about the parallels between now and the run-up to the GFC. From Bloomberg: "BofA’s Hartnett Warns Markets Starting to Look Like 2008." From the FT: "Should investors worry about a 2008-style shock?" The key concern: oil prices...
UAE Rail Shifts 459k Tons in Nine Days
With the Strait of Hormuz closed, the UAE has turned to its rail network. Etihad Rail Freight has transported 459,000 tons of cargo and 7,900 containers in only 9 days. UAE’S INFRASTRUCTURE MITIGATES THE WAR’S COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/cRyWRv4gvD
Markets Ignore Iran Risks, Focus on AI Buzz
It's clear: the market is genuinely uninterested in entertaining what could go wrong in Iran. They were very happy to ask that question about AI, but for whatever reason, not about this. More on the market's reaction to Iran in...
USD Reserve Status Threatened If Commodity Contracts Fail
Good point & good question - what happens to the USD's reserve status if USD commodity contracts are broken on a widespread basis? What's the point of holding USDs if they are declared worthless for commodities when inconvenient? See 2022 seizure of...
Revised Q4 GDP Signals Slowing US Economy Amid Stagflation Risks
Here’s the Financial Times on today's revised data on US fourth-quarter GDP. Similar to the consumer spending figures also released today (please see previous post), Q4 GDP growth now suggests a less dynamic American economy in the run-up to the...
War-Driven Rate Hike Adds $130/Month on $600k Mortgage
For a $600,000 home, a borrower will now have to pay $130 more per month than what they would have paid the day before the war started when rates were 5.99%
BEA's Data Switch Trims Core PCE by 8bps
The BEA’s decision to change legal services source data in the PCE from CPI (around 11.3% in Jan) to PPI (1.8% in Jan) cut the core PCE MoM chg by 8bps (would have been 0.44% vs 0.36%). Could defend...
Prediction Markets See Two‑thirds Chance US Troops Deployed by Year‑end
Prediction markets are pricing in 2/3rds chance that U.S. boots are on the ground by the end of the year https://t.co/2kcrfgNU6v
Poland to Fund Program Using Unrealized Gold Gains
Based on what Glapinski said during his press conference two days ago, all indications are, as I expected, that the plan is to use unrealised gains on the NBP's gold to fund the programme. https://t.co/csre6RPhlr
Mearsheimer: US War in Iran Faltering, Trump Stuck
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on the war in Iran: “It’s quite clear that the war is not going well for the United States… and the problem that [Trump] faces is he can’t find an off-ramp.” https://t.co/7LkbA4GAp1
Fed Still Engaged in QE Despite Denials
BESSENT: A LONG WAY FROM FED GOING BACK TO QE Talk about blatant BS- the Fed is doing QE
Oil Market Bets on Short US‑Iran Conflict, Quick Hormuz Re‑opening
Oil prices still anticipate short war or early re-opening of the Strait Oil traders are still betting war between the United States and Iran will end relatively quickly - or that the United States will soon be in a position to...
War Risks Trigger Oil, Food Shocks and Stagflation
If this war lasts much longer, it's not just an oil shock that could destabilize the economy. Food too. "We are facing a risk of stagflation" - @JosephEStiglitz Apple🔊https://t.co/7Ewtn8N1AT Spotify📽️https://t.co/3AKmC9yw2d YouTube📽️https://t.co/yR3j6zbCrB https://t.co/hYJLSPL2uF
Trump Releases 172M Barrels, Calls SPR Outdated White Elephant
TRUMP PANICS and orders the release of 172 million barrels of oil from America's strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). This will amount to a drop in the bucket. SPR is a classic OUTDATED GOV'T WHITE ELEPHANT. It's time to liquidate it and shut it...
Consumer Spending Slows, Core Inflation Stays Stubbornly High
US economic data released today suggests that, leading up to the Middle East War, hitherto robust consumer spending had begun to soften. Meanwhile, inflation — as measured by core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s favorite measure — remained sticky, holding well...
Inflation Rising Pre‑Conflict Signals Trouble for Economy, Fed
Inflation was hearing up even before the US-Iran conflict began. Bad news for the economy and bad news for the Fed
Bond Yields Rise on Moderate Oil Shock, Easing Doubtful
How to interpret the rise in bond yields across the G10? Here's a guess: the market has priced in moderate oil disruption that marginally raises upside inflation risks and lowers probability of central bank easing this year. If at some...
Trump Pushes Fed Cut as Oil Spikes Amid Iran Conflict
As oil prices surged on Thursday during the intensifying Iran war, President Donald Trump again urged Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, even as markets increasingly bet that rising energy costs would keep inflation elevated and delay...
Wolf: Oil Price Nightmare Unlikely; Iran Regime Change Implausible
OUT NOW - @martinwolf_ on "nightmare scenario" for oil prices and why the democratic regime change in Iran is "extremely implausible" 🇮🇷 Apple🔊https://t.co/YIUZqmamAH Spotify📽️https://t.co/TIAT3VANJk YouTube📽️https://t.co/unzLSGazzM https://t.co/MQl4DAj8d0
No TACOs: Trump Lacks Leverage in Energy Crisis
The discussion around TACO is wrong. There are no TACOs here. TACOs don't exist when: 1) It's not a unilateral decision. It's very clearly not up to Trump any more. Things we said in this episode are playing out - he...
Refined Product Prices, Not Crude, Will Drive Demand Collapse
Crude prices aren't what will ultimately drive the necessary demand destruction should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed. That job will fall to refined product prices, the things we as consumers actually consume. Singapore spot jet fuel prices are there already, over...
Dollar Surge Revives 2018 Liquidity Squeeze, Hurting Risk Assets
DXY starting to move up just as it did in early 2018. This threatens to tighten global liquidity even further, which will continue to be a macro headwind for risk assets https://t.co/70JRVsUDZk
Copper‑Gold Ratio Distorted by Gold Surge, Awaiting Normalization
When will the Copper-Gold ratio 'normalize' such that it will once again stand as a reflection of economic health? The unusual surge in gold these past months is still distorting it. Would be good to have a clear reading from...
Core PCE Inflation Slips to 3.1% in January
January was another hot month for PCE inflation (we're getting these data two weeks later than usual due to shutdown). Annual rates for core PCE: 4.5% 3.7% 3.1% 3.1%
Iran Conflict Revives Debate on Booming U.S. Oil Exports
Iran war reignites debate over U.S. oil exports, which have surged after Congress + Obama lifted a ban in 2015. https://t.co/xCz2d8WdQ1 via @axios https://t.co/kHinCgc4Z7
Oil Prices Set to Remain High Through Midterms
Oil prices aren't expected to fall anytime soon. Futures markets suggest oil prices are very likely to be high high during the midterms. https://t.co/5A4nd2c298
Hormuz Closure Would Crash Markets, Boost Commodities and Inflation
It is hard to overstate how negative it is for stocks, bonds, and the global economy, and how positive it is for commodities and inflation (up bigly) if Hormuz is still closed in a month. Every single price on our screens...
Government Should Cut Fuel Taxes, Not Blame Retailers
Rather than blame business for price gouging perhaps the government would be better served at looking at its own policies around fuel duty, where the Treasury takes more than 50% of the pump price. Perhaps a temporary cut to...
EM ETF's Sharp Drop Signals Market Minefield
$EEM up 33% over the past year. Then dropped 8.4% in a single week. That's not volatility. That's a warning. Dollar weakness opens the door. Oil slams it shut. EM is a minefield right now. https://t.co/i9MYZbdcdq
US, Japan, EU to Forge Critical Minerals Trade Pact
The US, Japan and the European Union are set to announce plans in the coming weeks to lay the foundation for a trade agreement in critical minerals. Trade agreements, ok, personnel, IP, experience, required... https://t.co/4wQbtrIhCR
Saudi Bypass of Hormuz Spurs Red Sea Supertanker Surge
Supertankers Build Up in Red Sea as Saudi Arabia Races to Bypass Hormuz. The plan and how much the infrastructure can handle. https://t.co/0tUBLK1icp
Chinese Zinc Shipments From Iran Cancelled Amid Conflict
"In the wake of the conflict in Iran, Chinese buyers have been informed that shipments of zinc concentrates set to leave the port city of Bandar Abbas have been called off, according to people familiar with the matter..." https://t.co/jXqFGxfn43
Trump’s AI Ambitions Undermined by Risky Iran Oil Move
On one hand, Trump laid out the 21st Century Manhattan project with the Genesis Plan, promising to lead the world in AI- an objectively good thing for America. @DavidSacks On the other hand, he goes into Iran cutting off oil...
Fed Stalls Amid One‑Time War Inflation, Awaiting SEP Clarity
Fed's in a tough position here. Labor market and economy in general need a bit of TLC but war inflation may be one too many one-time price level increase. Default reaction will be no reaction for now. FOMC...
Saez and Zucman Analyze Sanders' Billionaire Tax Plan
Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman on the Sanders proposal for a billionaire tax. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/985S5J7cYd
USTR Launches 76 Section 301 Probes, Reviving Tariffs
Quick update on tariffs in light of this week’s new USTR announcement of over 76 new Section 301 investigations that will likely result in new tariffs being put back in place on substantially all of US imports that were taken...
Conab Slightly Lowers Crop Estimates, Boosts Soybean Export Forecast
🇧🇷Conab made very slight trims to its estimates for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean and corn crops. First-crop corn production went up, but that was offset by a reduction to the heavily-exported second crop. Projected soybean exports rose from last month. https://t.co/vXR8g5NOEG
Fed Treasury Holdings Surge, Keeping Gold Bullish
The Fed's balance sheet holdings of US Treasuries is now at October 2024 levels and rising. This is why it's difficult to get secularly bearish on gold. Material balance sheet expansion has begun with asset prices at ATHs and no...
Iran's Move Could Crash Oil Prices, Lose Leverage
If Iran does this, crude oil prices fall back to bear pre-war levels, and they lose the only leverage they have.
Tehran’s Real Leverage: Shutting Hormuz, Not Drone Control
Everyone wants a Hormuz EZ-Pass but Tehran's primary leverage is keeping the Strait closed to *all* traffic. It's the total supply flow lost—not the destinations— that ultimately matters. And no guarantee that person with whom you're negotiating is controlling the drones. https://t.co/xNoSi9YCh5
Small‑Cap Investors Mimic Dunkirk, Smuggling Oil Through Hormuz
The Little Ships of Dunkirk except its small cap investors smuggling oil through the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/grhS8iKYsL