Closed Hormuz Could Push Brent Above $220 per Barrel
In a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, "that means $250-$300 price of oil (Brent)" argues @Rory_Johnston. Because a giant price shock is needed to destroy 15 million barrels per day of demand $220+ "almost guaranteed." https://t.co/fnf6ENgf0N https://t.co/yakBRYsHgc
Fed Inaction Fuels Gold Surge via Falling Real Rates
The Fed’s Inaction is a Green Light for Gold Here’s my take: The data confirms the Fed is way behind the curve. Inflation is out of control, and they can’t rein it in. Their failure to hike rates isn't bearish for...
Brazil Rejects US Critical Minerals Deal Amid Trump Tensions
Brazil is now RESISTING a critical minerals agreement with the US. FORGET THE ART OF THE DEAL. TRUMP = MASTERCLASS AT MAKING ENEMIES. https://t.co/jmtqeFKoVb
Oil Shock Drives Inflation Spike, Interest Costs Hit 5% GDP
Inflation surges due to oil shocks. None of the prior episodes had U.S. interest payments reach 5% of GDP. None. Expect inflation to surge again, with the Fed having to justify a rate cut. That is certainly not priced in markets today. https://t.co/W8K6vFstbd Great chart from...
China Onshore Stocks Crowned Top Asset Amid Conflict
With the onset of the US-Israeli attack on Iran, my good friend Chris Wood, Global Head of Equity Strategy at Jefferies, believes China’s onshore stocks are the top assets. CHINA = WINNER.
US‑Israeli War Triggers Asia‑wide Economic Shock
From fuel rationing in Sri Lanka to restaurant closures in India, flight cancellations in Thailand, and food and fertilizer shocks across Asia -- the ripple effects of the US-Israeli war on Iran are global. THE US-ISRAELI WAR'S COLLATERAL DAMAGE IS MASSIVE. https://t.co/jD1WHbQj6T
China Won’t Be the Biggest Loser if Hormuz Closes
Many commentators on Iran war have seemingly not thought any further ahead than “China is hurt most by Hormuz closing” Below is just one small example of why that view is so wrong 👇
Rising Risks: Rate Hikes and Aggressive Cuts Both Escalate
"The risk of a hike might be rising but the risks of lots of cuts is rising too." - UBS
March 2022 Rally Shattered Downtrend, Defied Rate‑Hike Fears
The most recent genuinely vicious counter trend rally I recall was March 2022, SPX broke the YTD downtrend that had formed, reclaimed the 200 day moving average and then kept going for another week. Genuinely seemed like we had torn...
Politicians Hide True War Costs—Hundreds of Billions Missing
When politicians quote war costs, they're usually giving you the Pentagon's grocery bill, not the real economic damage. Oil shocks, lost jobs, delayed investment - the true cost isn't billions, it's hundreds of billions. Always ask: what are they not counting? https://t.co/Q56IHqdfvB
War Damages 39 Energy Sites Across Nine Nations
The New York Times on one of the major economic effects of the War: “At least 39 energy oil refineries, natural gas fields and other energy sites in nine countries have been damaged since the United States and Israel began...
Historic Energy Shock Threatens AI-Driven Economic Boom
The largest energy supply shock in history just hit as the entire global economy had been riding high on the most energy intensive tech ever (AI), @Rory_Johnston argues. "I hope I'm wrong." Apple🔊https://t.co/hBJ1sBFqgN Spotify📽️https://t.co/fnf6ENfHbf https://t.co/OJPNLB003V
Trump Declares Victory While Troops Surge to Gulf
Trump claims that the US has “won” the war, and that Iran is “finished.” IF WE WON THE WAR, WHY ARE WE RUSHING THOUSANDS OF US TROOPS TO THE GULF? TRUMP = DELUSIONAL. https://t.co/g5aB73R1CU
10‑Year Yield Climbs to 4.38%, Highest Since July
1/6 The 10-year yield was up 13 bps yesterday, closing at 4.38%, the highest level since late July The bond market's view changed in the last few days. 🧵 https://t.co/QnAMwCkKch
Trump May Abandon Hormuz Crisis, Leaving Others to Fix
Why shouldn't the presumption be that they will just negotiate deals with Iran and accommodate the regime the United States flirted with trying to change? India, Japan, Pakistan, others are already negotiating Hormuz passage directly. Why not presume they will "clean...
Fed's 2026 Forecast Ignores History's Inflation Lessons
1973 oil embargo: inflation went from 3.6% to 12.3%. Fed's current forecast for 2026: 2.7%. Brent is at $110. Up 54% in a month. Either this time is genuinely different, or the Fed is the most optimistic institution on earth. History doesn't care about...
Short‑Term Oil Volatility Secures Decades of Market Stability
Markets are too focused on the near-term challenges from higher oil prices. The real trade-off for investors is 4 to 6 weeks of instability, paying off 50 years of stability in oil markets, supply chains, and geopolitics. Torsten at Apollo https://t.co/ixJHl4Cw5f
US Oil Shortage Fuels Iran’s War Funding
Thanks to the oil shortages caused by the war with Iran, the US is now forced to buy Iranian oil and that money is then used by Iran to fund its war with the United States. 5D chess.
Iranian Strikes Inflict $800 Million Damage on U.S. Bases
The BBC reports that Iranian counter-attacks on US military bases in the Middle East have caused $800 MILLION in damage. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN IS COSTING AMERICANS AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/hxarqU3UlU
Sanctions Relief Risks Oil Drop, Treasury Turns Trader
Bessent is trying to reopen the Strait of Hormuz through sanctions relief. 140M barrels of Iranian oil. A temporary lift. Geopolitical chess. If it works, oil falls. If it fails, $110 looks cheap. The Treasury Sec is now an oil trader. Welcome to...
Markets Stay Calm Amid Iran War and Hormuz Crisis
How it feels watching the Iran War, Hormuz stoppage, and the still-so-sanguine global market reaction as the world economy just rolls into calamity. https://t.co/2S9HlfVhPt
Structured Approach to Understanding and Acting on Iran War
What we know, what we don't know and what we are doing about the Iran War: @CalmInvestor writes at @CapitalmindMF letter on a way to look at the crisis that gives you a structured view of how to act. (read...
Iran Offers Japanese Ships Access Through Hormuz Strait
IRAN SAYS READY TO LET JAPAN VESSELS USE HORMUZ — KYODO REPORTS Who knows better about surprises than Japan? https://t.co/yR2ThmWwvU
Melenchon Defends Iran's Right to Self‑defense
French LFI Party Leader @JLMelenchon on Iran's RESPONSE to US-Israeli attacks: “Iran is exercising its legitimate right to defend its sovereignty, its people, and its resources, after being subjected to blatant aggression.” https://t.co/22z0UUDxgo
Markets Expect Fed Rate Hike Over Cut This Year
1/ Markets now think the Fed is more likely to raise rates than cut them this year. A rate hike is not my baseline scenario, but I see the risks rising, for the following reasons. (Link to column in next...
Inflation Double‑top Once Mocked, Now Taken Seriously
Lost count of all the times people scoffed at a 1970s-style inflation “double top.” Not as much laughter now. 😞 https://t.co/FTwzh0yQik
Nearly Half of Americans Expect Total Economic Collapse Soon
🚨 INSIGHT Nearly half of Americans predict a “total economic collapse” within the next decade. https://t.co/30yqgjJkPX
Brent Prices Signal Ongoing Iran Conflict, WTI Lags
Oil expert Stephen Schork on Brent & WTI prices & the war in Iran: "[The WTI contract] is the hope market. The Brent market is the real market that is pricing the real events going on, and that blowup [Brent...
Rising Oil Prices May Trigger an Economic Recession
Will higher oil cause a recession? @sonusvarghese and I discussed this in our latest Glass Half Full. https://t.co/Jc7IFlbB5X
Oil Price Spikes over 100% Trigger S&P Corrections
“When oil prices rise more than 100%, the S&P 500 index typically suffers substantial corrections. While WTI prices have risen 50% so far, other non-US grades shown earlier have risen by 100% or more.” https://t.co/fN5M8QiCsW
China's Economy Fell From 75% to Under Two‑thirds of US
China's economy peaked in 2021, reaching a level roughly equal to 75% of the US economy. It is now less than 2/3 the size of the US economy. https://t.co/MBi5dqxuZg
India’s Tanker Move May Pave Way for Iran’s Dominance
FEDWATCH: “.. If [India’s tanker] passage is successful, other countries may follow the Indian example. .. “.. the only way crude price volatility cools off is if there is a decisive winner, which is increasingly looking to be Iran.” [Emons]...
Middle East War Triggers Unprecedented Global Oil Supply Disruption
The International Energy Agency in Paris reports “the war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” TRUMP & NETANYAHU'S WAR PLANNERS -- NOT THE SHARPEST KNIVES IN THE DRAWER --...
ECB’s Stournaras Warns War’s Prolonged Impact on Economy
ECB’s Stournaras warns of large impact from the war if it lasts https://t.co/tFKKxKWTL4 via @weberalexander https://t.co/UnFX547dAI
US Lifts Sanctions, France Cracks Down—Energy Politics Murky
The US is removing sanctions from shadow fleet ships to ease energy prices while France increases seizures. Hard to tell how much of this is politically motivated.
Sanctions Waiver Undermines “Maximum Pressure” On Iran
Why on earth aren't major media outlets asking this obvious question? The Trump administration just issued a sanctions waiver allowing 140 million barrels of Iranian oil currently at sea to be sold. Meanwhile, Iran's oil exports have surged before the...
Markets Restrict Trump's Aggressive Moves Amid Distressed Conditions
Markets have been the ultimate constraint on Trump. It was like that in April 2025 when China tariffs went to almost 150% and arguably also in January 2026 over Greenland. Markets are now very distressed. Trying to take Kharg Island...
War's Hidden Cost: $2‑5k Less per Family
Here’s the thing: wars have budget costs, and they have economic costs. The first shows up in government accounts. The second shows up as less national income. Spread across households, that’s roughly $2,000 to $5,000 per family. https://t.co/yrD2nUbrzW
UANI and FDD Back Unconditional Iranian Oil Sanctions Lift
So now @UANI and @FDD are strongly in favour of lifting sanctions on Iranian oil sales without conditionality
Norway Central Bank Accelerates Transparency of Policy Decisions
Norway’s central bank will boost transparency of its monetary policy decisions from next week, expediting the plan after a year of close scrutiny into the credibility of its communications https://t.co/CJDFluoCJ1 via @ottummelas https://t.co/pdSQh8A1U6
Princeton Keynote Explores Debt, Deficits, Global Imbalances
Four weeks ago I was a keynote speaker at Princeton's Annual JRCPPF Conference. The topic this year was "Debt, Deficits & Global Imbalances". For those who might be interested (and there were some brilliant presentations), this video provides the links. https://t.co/BhKUkeJVQb
Iran's Energy War Fuels Stalemate, Unites Its Adversaries
Depressing but important analysis from the @TheEconomist: The Iran war in a nutshell: America can’t reopen Hormuz, Iran can’t stop the airstrikes, & every escalation option is bad, explaining why there’s no clear path to a durable political solution —...
Turkey Blames Israel as Primary Cause of Middle East Wars
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Israel is the “primary cause” of wars in the Middle East. He said that Israel is pushing the region into an “unprecedented crisis”. https://t.co/MO46l8Agto
Nobel Laureate Simon Shaped G7 Russia Price Cap
This @ProSyn column by @baselinescene is a must-read. Before he won the Nobel for economics in 2024, Simon was deeply involved in design and execution of the G7 price cap on Russia. Few other voices carry as much authority now...
Iran War Shock Shifts Global Central Bank Outlook, Not US
Whereas the Iran war shock has barely budged inflation expectations and no more than mildly jolted expectations of monetary policy in the US, the same shock has completely transformed the outlook for many other central banks. More charts, graphs, and...
Washington Rejects Debt Brake, Fuels Fiscal Insanity
As Dave Walker, former Comptroller General of the US, and I wrote in @FortuneMagazine, Washington rejected a Swiss-style “debt brake” earlier this week. NO DEBT BRAKE = FISCAL INSANITY. https://t.co/Tw28jA4nUE
Markets Bet War Short, Yet Expect Aggressive Central Banks
New weekly commentary here: https://t.co/V6x7cI6LT8 War and market speculation of the policy response ripples through the capital markets. Central paradox: Markets seem optimistic about duration of war but sees many central banks being extremely aggressive. https://t.co/xpvqmxf8k7
Oil Super‑cycle Myth Fails in Debt‑laden, Low‑growth World
Goehring & Rozencwajg's oil super-cycle has have been wrong for a decade The argument is disconnected from a debt-saturated, low-growth, war-fractured world Scarcity can spike price But it can also crush demand, trigger recession, & kill the bull case https://t.co/fOpvyVFTKH #Oil #OilMarkets #Energy #Macro #Recession...
China's Decline Signals Overlooked Amid Chinese Century Narrative
The Chinese Century is now the conventional wisdom. Previous narratives of China's peak and decline proved premature. But I see some definite signs that China is growing weaker, and only a few people seem to be paying attention. https://t.co/PUBIvyJcaw
Iran War Spares Global Container Volumes; CNY Hits China, Vietnam
Despite the headlines, global container trade volumes are largely unaffected by the Iran War (CNY is the reason that China and Vietnam are down MoM). https://t.co/YplrKgSLTc