Impending LNG Shock Threatens Europe and Asia for Years
The LNG shock is about to get real The last Gulf cargoes loaded before the war are now arriving After that, Europe & Asia hit the wall This is a major structural shock that may last years https://t.co/Dw60mbEoxn #LNG #Hormuz #Qatar #Pakistan #Bangladesh #Taiwan #EnergyCrisis #Coal #NaturalGas #Geopolitics
Hormuz Blockade's Impact Varies: Short-Term Mild, Long-Term Catastrophic
On intensity, absolutely true. I think the overall effect will be less than the energy shocks of the 1970s if this ends **today** but if the Hormuz stoppage stretches out for months it'll blow the other two out of the water.
U.S. LNG Gains vs Gulf Instability’s Massive Blowback
Gulf insecurity can serve U.S. LNG and geopolitical interests, writes @anasalhajji This is an alternative view that should be taken seriously My take is that it goes too far in treating strategic benefit as proof of strategic design The blowback to the...
Energy Surge Deepens Fed Transition Crisis for Warsh
The run-up in energy prices is making a very awkward Fed transition even more fraught. This was already complicated. Kevin Warsh's confirmation is stalled by the DOJ probe and the Tillis blockade. Plus, unlike every incoming Fed chair since Volcker, Warsh...
China Won’t Extend Formal Security Guarantee to Iran
Based on my understanding, Beijing will try its best to mediate the conflict for the sake of its own economic interests, but the probability of it extending a security guarantee to Iran is extremely low. China’s foreign policy remains fundamentally anchored...
Gold's Drop Signals Tight Policy, Not Liquidations
Seeing a narrative going around that gold is selling off because everyone is getting liquidated. Please. If that were the case, people would be selling stocks first. Gold is leading the downside. To me, this still looks like a market pricing in an extremely...
Kharg Island Seizure Won’t Halt Iran’s Oil Exports
[MUST READ] Iran’s Kharg Island - U.S. seizure would not necessarily end exports or re-open the Strait: https://t.co/yRYH1g1UAM
Sri Lanka Refuses US Request to Base Fighter Jets
Sri Lanka has denied a US request to land fighter jets for Trump’s Iran war. TRUMP & THE US = COLLECTING ENEMIES BY THE BUSHEL. https://t.co/zyC7L7xJau
Indian Tanker Pays in Yuan, Signaling Petro‑Yuan Market Rise
And Indian tanker has reportedly paid in Chinese yuan. Welcome to the #petroYuan market (thanks donald)
Trump Pushes Managed Trade Strategy Before Xi Meeting
What is the managed approach to trade that Donald Trump's administration is seeking with China, as both sides work towards the US president's potential meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in the coming weeks? What is a 'Board of Trade'? https://t.co/7KSQgnuNxR
Asian Markets Plunge 3-4% on Shaky Monday
Had a short window to record this as we go live this Monday. Just to show: markets are in really bad shape this Monday. Japan and Korea are down 3-4% https://t.co/qr5MVM9jzS
Thailand Revives Mothballed Coal Plants, Curbing LNG Prices
More evidence of Asian counties performing a LNG-to-coal fuel switch: Thailand has reactivated two coal-fired units that had been mothballed. The switch is important to put a lid on global LNG (and European gas) prices. https://t.co/qqyd5NrZQ8
Iran Conflict Could Disrupt Gradual Money Printing Plan
My March public newsletter is now available, and discusses to what extent the war on Iran may impact the "gradual print" scenario. Enjoy: https://t.co/4hDx5MSKSS https://t.co/tKqORqDF4D
US Debt Surge Mirrors 1980s Argentine Crisis
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 31%...today it's 122%. US fiscal deficit/GDP was 1%...today, it's 6% on its way to 8-10% (or more if the war drags on.) Translation: "That 70s Show" will feel like "1980s Argentina with US characteristics."
Polymarket Predicts 28% Chance Hormuz Reopens by April
Polymarket, a large prediction market, shows only a 28% chance that the Strait of Hormuz will open for normal traffic by the end of April. TRUMP & NETANYAHU’S WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COSTS. https://t.co/slk6gIZTUJ
Key S&P Level Threatens 2008‑Style Crash
It's good to have eyes wide open...just in case Crash Risk: 2008-Type Waterfall Level Is Here Rising oil, yields & dollar are increasing market stress. VIX has a persistent bid. A key $SPX level could trigger either a bounce OR a sharp "2008-style"...
Iran's Petrodollar Attack Meets 10 M
"Iran is going after the petrodollar system" Brother, they've already shut in 10 million barrels per day of Gulf crude oil production capacity. What petro?
Oil Shock Could Trigger Bond Market Turmoil, Warns FT
The Financial Times’ Katie Martin: “It is hard, in that environment, to pick the market moves that really matter. This week’s wild ride in UK government bonds is, I think, one of them. It is an early warning sign of...
Xi Pushes RMB as Global Reserve Amid U.S. Isolation
The U.S. is accumulating enemies faster than you can shake a stick. Chinese President Xi SEES AN OPENING. Xi has made a new push the renminbi to be a global reserve currency. https://t.co/qMpgMEp3Fo
Fed Will Prioritize Inflation Amid Oil Shock, Unless Markets Worsen
I mostly agree w/@biancoresearch here. Covid, tariffs and Iran all had elements of supply shock. Covid's came with a demand shock too so inflation dominated Fed response. Tariffs were 2-sided; Fed first prioritized inflation, then growth. w/oil, will prob prioritize...
Markets Reprice Inflation Shock, Not Recession Fears
1/4 Yesterday I posted the thread below arguing that the market is repricing an inflation shock, not a recession scare. 10-year yields are rising, bond volatility is exploding, inflation expectations are jumping, and Fed pricing has swung from cuts toward hikes. Follow up...
Dollar-Oil Surge Cripples Emerging Markets, Unmodeled Squeeze
DXY up 3% in a month on safe-haven demand. Oil up 50%. Dollar up AND oil up simultaneously. Emerging markets are getting crushed from both sides. This is the squeeze nobody is modeling. https://t.co/xogAtPGq0m
Waiving Restrictions Lets Putin Sell Oil at 2022‑level Prices
By what? Giving waver to Putin to sell his oil freely at prices we have not see since 2022? 😉
War Triggers Soaring Commodity Prices, Gas up 85%
Price increases since the start of the Iran war... European Natural Gas: +85% Heating Oil: +80% Brent Crude Oil: +54% Urea: +48% WTI Crude Oil: +46% Gasoline: +44% Diesel: +42% Sulfur: +25% Coal: +24% Fertilizer: +23% Palm Oil: +13% US Natural Gas: +8% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +7%
Long‑term UST Holders Lost ~80% Purchasing Power
Joke's on you - anyone that has owned LT USTs for the past 10 years has already had their purchasing power destroyed (ZB priced in gold down ~80% since global CB's stopped buying USTs on net in 3q14 & ramped...
HK Inflation Near Target, Currency Board Proves Effective
Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.7%/yr in February, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target. Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM. https://t.co/Q0L3lNddlP
Growth Slump Extends Through 2026‑2027, Hits Jobs
“Growth is lower, not just for one quarter. It stays lower throughout all of 2026 and all of 2027.” In English: this isn’t a blip. It’s a persistent hit to jobs, incomes, and the economy’s trajectory.
Hormuz Closure Cuts 30% Fertilizer Supply, Spurs Food Prices
OUT NOW - @JLinvilleFert on how Strait of Hormuz's closure has blocked >30% of world's fertilizer exports & degraded farming economics. Upward fert & food price risk. It's bad. Apple 🔊https://t.co/cMO23J6a4g Spotify📽️ https://t.co/CX48AK9HEc YouTube📽️ https://t.co/qx5Od1DJd1 https://t.co/uA1oP879mc
Weekend Read: Paul Krugman on the Hormuz Shock
As a first for me, I'm recommending @paulkrugman as a weekend read/listen. @robin_j_brooks makes it possible with a discussion on the Hormuz shock. https://t.co/aQ64hxAHxb
Sachs Predicts US Loses Geopolitical Edge to China
Distinguished Columbia Univ. Prof. Jeff Sachs on current geopolitics: "In many ways, the US can not compete with China [in both manufacturing and diplomacy]... And I think we all feel it's not a temporary phenomenon but really the end of the...
Iran's Strike on Qatar Threatens Gulf Energy Supply
Iran struck Qatar's gas infrastructure. Qatar is the world's largest LNG exporter. This isn't just oil at risk. It's the entire Gulf energy supply chain. $XLE is at all-time highs for a reason. https://t.co/7TjuVfAelG
Trump’s Iran War Sparks Oil Crisis and Recession
3 months. 2 wars. 1 recession incoming. Trump promised to be the peace president. Then he started a war on Iran with no imminent threat. Now the Strait of Hormuz is a live war zone, oil prices are rising, and the...
Asia Reunites Historically; U.S. Unprepared for New Reality
In 2011, fifteen years ago, I wrote an essay for @TWQgw on the reemergence of an interconnected "historical Asia" instead of the fragmented "Cold War Asia" anomaly to which Americans had grown accustomed. A fantastic essay in Swarajya on the...
Iran Conflict Threatens Trump Republicans in Midterms
With virtually no international support and a strong disapproval by the American public, Operation Epic Fury in Iran might topple Trump's republicans in the midterm elections. The US-Israeli war on Iran has SPUN OUT OF CONTROL AND SPRUNG A TRAP ON...
CPI Risks Distortion From Rationing and Price Spikes
No idea how CPIs will import this, but I fear the worst. Rationing + sampling distorted by the few remaining live routes, where prices will go vertical. Some stats offices might even have to impute price, which could paradoxically cushion...
Iranian Oil Claim Covers only One Week, Now Week Four
Even if this were true (which, naw), the 140 million barrels of Iranian oil on water Bessent cites here would offset roughly one week of Hormuz stoppage. We’re now in week 4.
Oil Price Surge Adds 2.8% to CPI Inflation
Funny math. If Dec oil meets futures. The YoY inflation of oil will be roughly 40%. Pick your inflation basket weighting and any feed through to core . Headline CPI direct is roughly 7%. Others...
Money Supply Swells $26 Trillion Since 2020, Diluting Value
The global money supply amounts to $144 trillion. Since 2020 alone, this figure has increased by $26 trillion. A vivid reminder of how quickly the value of money can be diluted. https://t.co/elsQDqCL3p
Iran's Hormuz Threat Emerges as Top Market Risk
⚠️ Iran threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz is NOT just geopolitical noise. It’s the single biggest macro risk in the market right now. ~20% of global oil flows through that choke point. If it closes: • Oil spikes • Inflation rebounds • Risk...
U.S. Tariffs on Menstrual Products Triple Since 2020
"According to government data, the U.S. collected $115 million through tariffs on menstrual products containing cotton in 2025, compared with just $42 million in 2020." https://t.co/myTChDYcYR https://t.co/PSGFpKlkaO
China Faces Gas Shortfall as Gulf LNG Runs Out
"World faces gas supply cliff edge as Gulf’s final LNG shipments approach ports" https://t.co/OjcnxXcs8a "China gets 30 per cent of its LNG from the Gulf but has some domestic gas production and can switch to coal-fired power generation if needed." https://t.co/ikbgxbUPhV
IMF Urges China to Boost Consumption, Cut Subsidies
IMF First Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz: "China can do more to increase consumption and domestic demand—especially for services—by boosting household incomes and reducing incentives for precautionary savings. That means shifting resources away from industrial subsidies and infrastructure." https://t.co/2Rvhxa5jsN
White House Must Reopen Strait of Hormuz Quickly
"To expect it to cave in today... ignores past lessons. And unlike the Islamic Republic, the White House doesn’t have the benefit of time. It needs to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in days or, at worst, weeks." - @JavierBlas...
US Debt Hits $39 Trillion, Ignored by Leaders
As Dave Walker, former Comptroller General of the US, and I wrote in @FortuneMagazine, "total [US] federal debt surged past $39 trillion, or 125% of GDP... Despite the federal government's fiscal time bomb, the US Congress and the President remain with...
Week of High-Stakes Events Deepens Economic Fragility
Here are the links to the weekly look at the global economy and markets—a discussion of a week characterized by both high-stakes developments and an increasingly fragile economic and financial outlook. https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7441107748030693376/ https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-7d1?r=33wip&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true #economy #markets #middleeastwar
Tokenized Money Threatens Traditional Banking by 2030
🔺 The $2 Trillion Shift: Is Tokenized Money About to Kill Traditional Banking? 💸 By 2030, tokenized money could be a $2T market. But while the tech is moving fast, the global financial map is becoming a "fragmented mess" of rules. 💬...
US‑backed Tankers Keep Loading at Kharg Despite Tensions
Threats are flying between the US and Iran, but what matters for oil prices isn't words but deeds. Those deeds are that big oil tankers with capacity of 2 million barrels keep docking at Kharg Island to fill up. This...
Brace for Market Turbulence If No New News
Given all the news in the past 24 hours, if nothing new is announced in the next 24 hours, strap in—things are about to get intense. #oil #bonds #economics #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
US Banks Receive $200 Bn Capital Infusion
The $200bn capital boost to US banks. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links of today. https://t.co/Z0naICa1tz
Region Supplies Huge Share of Key Global Commodities
22% of the world’s traded urea, 24% of its aluminium, a third of its helium and 45% of its sulphur come from the region