Record Margin Debt Triggers Forced Liquidation Across All Assets
Stocks, bonds, and gold all fell at the same time last week. That's not normal. That's a forced liquidation event. Margin debt hit $1.28 trillion — 4.07% of GDP. Highest ratio in history. Higher than dot-com. Higher than 2008. When that unwinds, it sells everything. Gold dropped 23% during a war. Sounds broken. It's not. $2.9B pulled from GLD in one day — largest in 20 years. 62 tonnes drained in three weeks. That's margin calls, not investors giving up on gold.
Steepening 10‑3 Curve Signals Shift to Cyclical Value Rally
The 10-3 Treasury Yield Curve is as steep as it has been since July 2022 after the 10-year spiked over the weekend. Historical playbook Every cycle: * Curve inverts → tightening / late cycle * Growth slows / recession risk builds * Fed pivots →...
Dow Rebounds to 200‑day SMA Amid US‑Iran Talks
I guess we are taking the President's remarks of 'productive' talks between the US and Iran at face value and not just a fear of hitting the 48 hour deadline and having to escalate with a market reaction... Dow has rebound...
Physical Oil Scarcity Outpaces Futures Pricing, Says Chevron CEO
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says the physical oil market is tighter than the financial oil market is reflecting, particularly for refined products. The scarcity, particularly in Asia, is “not fully priced in the oil futures curve,” he says. #CERAWeek
US New Home Sales Plunge 17.6% to Pandemic Lows
From December to January, US new home sales DROPPED by a STUNNING 17.6%. Sales were at their lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. AMERICAN HOUSING MARKET = IN THE TANK. https://t.co/AMSqv9ZMsT
U.S. and NATO Troops Exit Baghdad, Signaling Ongoing Instability
NATO & US troops from Victoria Base in Baghdad have TAKEN THE EXIT DOOR. After the US regime change that took out Saddam Hussein 23 years ago, NATO & the US have determined Iraq is STILL TOO DANGEROUS A PLACE TO...
Oil Shock Trims Consumption Outlook, Dampening Growth
“We revise down our consumption forecasts by 30bp due to the oil shock, which more than offsets the 20bp boost we factored in from fiscal. Real consumption grows 1.7% (4Q/4Q) in 2026. Higher prices and slower labor income growth mean...
Unblocking Hormuz Strait May Avert Global Depression
🤙🏻 Call me, beep me, if you want to unblock the Strait of Hormuz and unwind the largest energy supply shock in history to avoid a global depression.
Phase 1 of Peace Deal Likely Completed Soon
I won't be surprised if we hear "Phase 1 of the peace deal is done"
Dow Jumps 1,600 Points; Hormuz Risk Still Looms
🔴 Dow swings 1,600 points after Trump pauses Iran oil strikes - but the Strait of Hormuz risk isn't gone Oil. Gold. Rate hikes. I break it all down. Are you buying or selling into this move? Let me know below 👇 $DOW...
Energy Price Surge Could Add up to 2% Inflation
Goldman: "Higher energy prices will boost global headline inflation sharply in the next 1-2 months.... our country-specific rules of thumb imply that the shock will add 0.8pp to global headline inflation over the next year under our baseline and 2pp...
UK Growth to Halve After Iran War Impact, Economists Warn
UK growth is set to halve after Iran war hit, economists warn https://t.co/pVqkfFM6HK via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/AFBqxbz3It
World Trade Revolves Around EU, China, and US
The basic geography of world trade is centered around three poles #1 EU, #2 China, #3 US. Chartbook Top Links of the day just dropped: https://t.co/DG0iBZBvfZ
S&P Jumps as Trump Pauses Iranian Strikes, Oil Slides
Hope you’ve had your coffee Futures are ripping to start the week S&P is up 1.5% pre market after Trump says the U.S. will pause further strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for 5 days Oil reacting fast, down 10% to $90 Big week ahead...
US Tariffs Waste Billions on Steel, Aluminum, Copper
A back of napkin estimate (based on DOD spending on metals and the current price differential bt US and world market prices) indicates that the federal government wastes BILLIONS each year due to US steel, aluminum, & copper tariffs alone:...
Trump's Aggression Drags Markets; Restraint Lifts Them
The Iran war has in one respect followed a similar pattern to the trade war: Every time Trump leaned into his aggressive instincts, markets fell. This morning we see the opposite: When he backs off his aggressive instincts, markets rise....
Middle East Conflict Drives Global LNG Exports to Six‑month Low
Global LNG exports drop to the lowest level in six months due to Middle East conflict ⚠️ 🚢 This basically erases supply additions from the US and elsewhere during that period The drop is primarily from Qatar — and to a...
Bretton Woods: US Capital Outflows, Not Deficits, Built Global Reserves
This isn't quite true -- at least not always. Under the initial Bretton Woods system capital outflows (including FDI) from the US provided the buildup of fx reserves globally; the US didn't run a current account deficit until the 70s. 1/2
Qatar Outage Boosts Russia's LNG Sales to Vietnam
The outage at the world’s biggest LNG export plant in Qatar is apparently benefiting Russia 🇷🇺 ⚠️ Russia’s largest LNG producer Novatek has signed a preliminary deal to supply Vietnam, Tass reported citing CEO Mikhelson (Vietnam is struggling to buy LNG...
Markets Underestimate Full‑scale US‑Iran Energy Conflict
Trump just gave Iran 24 hours. Reopen Hormuz. Or face strikes on power facilities. Iran's response: We'll hit every US energy and desalination plant in the Gulf. $SPY is not pricing a full energy war. It should be. https://t.co/wOxm8bXbEC
Escalation Threat Sinks Markets, Boosts Dollar Amid Trump’s Iran Warning
Threat of Massive Escalation of the War Drags Financial Markets Lower, While Lifting the Greenback: After seemingly teasing the market ahead of the weekend that he was considering “winding down” military operations, President Trump issued Iran an… https://t.co/t3mysRChOd https://t.co/SLD6N1BncI
Oil Prices Slide as Trump Delays Iran Strikes
Oil and energy commodities tumble after Trump postpones U.S. strikes against Iran energy infrastructure for five days: CNBC https://t.co/nO7poYHdmx
SPY Spikes on Trump's 'Productive' US‑Iran Talks
$SPY printed a Sky Scraper Candle after Trump says U.S. and Iran have held ‘productive’ talks: CNBC https://t.co/1sxKxOeC2e
WTI May Top Near $120 by 2026, Echoing 2008
WTI Peaks and Recessions: $120 (2026), $147 (2008), $130 (2022) - WTI crude oil was near unchanged for the week ending March 20 despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining mostly closed, suggesting a potential topping process reminiscent of 2008. Roughly...
Trump’s Iran Comments Send Brent Down $16
An off ramp? A TACO? Another bait and switch? Brent cratered ~$16/bbl on Trump’s latest post talking about “very good and productive conversations” with Iran. https://t.co/6dfE8zEiRE
Higher Rates Worsen, Not Fix, Credit Problems
Question from a macro-ignorant options guy: Credit issues get better with sharply higher interest rates, right? https://t.co/UdR6NlJ6OR
Oil Price Spikes Drive Food Price Hikes
This one is intuitive and goes without saying. But let’s say it anyway; “When oil spikes, food prices tend to follow” Do you know why?
Dow Futures Surge 1,200 Points After Trump's Iran Talks Claim
Dow futures jump 1,200 points after Trump says U.S. and Iran have held ‘productive’ talks: CNBC https://t.co/ayLrxCx0Ot
China De
there goes China +1 'de-risking' strategy. almost everyone else is dependent on imported oil to fuel manufacturing, which it turns out is another variable which can be disrupted by rage tweet
Oil Volatility Shifts: From Demand Collapse to Supply Risk
Both the COVID-19 oil shock and the current Middle East oil shock (has) caused big moves in oil prices (Volatility), but for opposite reasons though. In 2020, demand absolutely collapsed because nobody was using or wanted as much oil as...
US Begins NAFTA Talks, Leaves Canada Out
The U.S. has kicked off renegotiating NAFTA, but Canada was left out of the first round between Mexico and the U.S. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/FCIjtRSKp6 #nafta #trade #geopolitics https://t.co/t6Gl84ia32
Impending Iran Conflict Sparks Market Sell‑off, Dollar Rally
We could be around 12 hours from a major escalation in the war on Iran. There is no appetite for risk. Bonds and stocks sold aggressively. Gold and silver offer no haven. The greenback is broadly higher....
Iranian Oil Routes to China via SWIFT Workarounds
Pfft. None of the desanctioned Iranian oil is going anywhere other than China, because only China can shield their payments from SWIFT. All of these masterful gambits assume the Iranians are idiots. They’re evil. Not idiots.
EU Accelerates Digital Euro as Euro‑Stablecoins Surge to Trillions
The EU is desperate to preserve monetary sovereignty, which is under attack by US stablecoins. That’s why S&P’s analysis is good news for the EU and ECB, which is in damage control mode, speeding digital euro launch. S&P Global...
Euro‑zone Wages Set to Accelerate in Late 2025
Euro-zone wage growth to quicken in the 2nd half of next year https://t.co/k3CjyFvHvU via @jrandow https://t.co/lbCs48qBAT
UK Gilts Suffer Worst Month Since Truss Amid Oil Spike
Gilts face worst month since Liz Truss as oil spike jolts UK market https://t.co/hvaQFGeXXa via @greg_ritchie https://t.co/K33eBm9D5V
Fed May Need Emergency 0.5% Rate Cut Amid Credit Slowdown
If credit markets continue slowing down because of straits of Hormuz oil shock and unemployment shoots up, Fed may have to announce an emergency half a point cut in next two weeks.
Markets Expect Four BOE Quarter‑Point Rate Hikes by 2026
Traders fully price 4 quarter-point hikes from the BOE in 2026 https://t.co/W64ms8NeB5 via @greg_ritchie https://t.co/61ntA97cXa
US Stocks Barely Reflect War Risks, S&P Down 6%
The notion US stocks have yet to price in a dramatic war escalation makes sense. The S&P 500’s down just 6% from the peak. We’ve seen mediocre earnings, eco reports trigger deeper declines than the one we have currently https://t.co/esTq56VbOq
ADNOC Cuts LNG Output as Hormuz Closure Tightens Gas Market
Adnoc is now reducing LNG production because Strait of Hormuz is shut, tightening the global gas market 🇦🇪 ⚠️ Adnoc has “made temporary operational adjustments to production of Liquefied Natural Gas” They’re working with customers to fulfill commitments “wherever possible” https://t.co/dLBNlgiLER
Slowing M2 Growth Signals Trouble for Bitcoin
Global M2 money supply growth has started to slow down rapidly. This is very, very bad for #BTC, according to Alphractal. https://t.co/EwfF9aiMFn
ECB Warns of Price Fallout From Iran War
The ECB is on alert for the fallout on prices from the Iran war, Vice President Luis de Guindos says https://t.co/mBZf91bF2R https://t.co/r2eRoCGCC4
PBoC Governor Says Global Deficits Unchanged in 40 Years
1/4 I am a little surprised by these comments from the governor of the PBoC. According to Yicai, yesterday he said that "the world’s major deficit countries are the same as 40 years ago because of the inherent flaws in the...
Switzerland Halts US Military Exports Amid Iran Conflict
Because of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Switzerland has suspended military exports to the United States. TRUMP = A MASTERCLASS IN CREATING ENEMIES. https://t.co/dQ6lG3KAgS
Dollar Weakness Stalls Rally, Triggers Gold Collapse
This is perhaps the reason why the US dollar has failed to rally meaningfully amidst today's market carnage. It's likely also the key reason behind the collapse in gold prices.
Stagflation: High Rates, Inflation, Negative Growth—Already Here
This is what stagflation looks like - high interest rates, inflation (often caused by high energy prices) along with negative economic growth We are 100% there if you ask me
Iranian Rial Gains 12% Amid Early War Turmoil
Through the first 3 weeks of the US-Israel war on Iran, the Iranian rial has demonstrated surprising resilience. It has APPRECIATED 12% against the USD. https://t.co/eDotRHK77c
Tackling Inflation Amid Climate Disasters and Fuel Shocks
How do you manage inflation when it’s driven by climate disasters and overseas fuel shocks? #energysky -- via Renew Economy: https://t.co/tJ9mprNoR3 https://t.co/PGFvKK16pt
Rising Fertilizer Costs Threaten Food Budgets for 500 M
Lots of emphasis on rising fertilizer prices in the US but food is a small part of budgets in the developed world. It's around 40% of the CPI basket in Bangladesh, Thailand, Ghana and Nigeria. That's 500 MILLION people. https://t.co/g5gtlNlsWN...
NATO Discusses Reopening Hormuz, Not Guarantees
"NATO VOWS TO REOPEN HORMUZ" is wildly overstated @DeItaone What NATO chief Mark Rutte actually said was allies are talking about ways to reopen Hormuz He added he is "absolutely convinced" they can succeed. At talking & coordinating What EU does best #NATO #MarkRutte...