Foreign‑flag Tankers Raise Domestic Fuel Costs, Study Finds
"A careful look at the current state of international market freight rates shows that, in fact, substituting a foreign flag tanker on a domestic route currently served by a Jones Act tanker would more than likely result in an increase in the delivered cost of fuel."
Trump Tariffs Spike Diesel, Fertilizer Costs, Threaten Farm Voters
Trump’s tariffs and the US-Israeli war on Iran are sending fertilizer and diesel costs through the roof. Diesel is up ~$1/gallon in a week. Urea fertilizer has jumped from $470/ton to up to $585. This jump in cost spells trouble for Trump and...
Stocks Tumble as PPI Spikes Beyond Forecasts
JUST IN: Stocks drop as Wholesale Inflation (PPI) comes in higher than expected (+0.7% MoM vs +0.3% forecast)
Iran War Reshapes Fed Expectations and Monetary Policy Outlook
Worth noting just how much the Iran war has changed expectations about the Fed and the future path of monetary policy. https://t.co/NBYZx2Uuza
China's EU Trade Surplus Rises in First Two Months
In news not related to the Straights of Hormuz, China's trade surplus with the EU ticked up in the first two months of the year 1/ https://t.co/uWb594zrUq
China Refuses to Tap Reserves for Global Supply
Well, China isn't going to dip into its strategic reserves to help supply the rest of the world ... 1/2
Asia Faces Demand Destruction as Middle Eastern Crude Hits $150
1/5 Where Is the Demand Destruction? tl:dr - Asia because they are reliant on Middle Eastern Crude oil, and it is now over $150/barrel. This is keeping (for now) the American and European grades "only" ~$100. (% gain since the war) https://t.co/A6Rk6TjszH
Presidential Tweets Trump Central Bank Rate Moves
"Does anyone really care if central banks raise or lower interest rates by 25 basis points, when the US president can send entire economies into a tailspin with a post on Truth Social?" Coppola Comment, 10th March. https://t.co/cCBaBOBPfB
PPI Stays Elevated at 3.4% Amid Fed QE Shift
February’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) was just released. Over the past year, the PPI REMAINS ELEVATED at 3.4%/yr. As the Fed pivots away from Quantitative Tightening to Quantitative Easing, it’s having trouble putting the INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/XFlfmOdN5q
Oil's Global Price Cracks Under Stress, Spreads Surge
Oil is a almost perfectly fungible commodity* with a single global price ... except during periods of stress Via JP's Natasha Kaneva, the spread between North Atlantic sweet light and the oil Asia normally buys has reached extreme levels * setting...
Trump’s NATO Betrayal Leaves Europe Refusing Bailout
Trump spent years trashing NATO. He's been threatening to have the US withdrawal since his first term. Now he wants NATO to bail him out of a war he chose. Europe said no. That’s not the story of weak allies- that’s the consequence of...
Iran Gas Strike Could Push Turkey to Import More LNG
An unintended consequence of the strikes on Iran’s gas fields? Turkey may be forced to import more LNG 🇹🇷 🚢 Iran sends gas from South Pars to Turkey via a pipeline (making up ~15% of the country’s demand) If that’s shut,...
Oil Shocks Shape Economy; Central Banks' Response Blueprint
Incredibly important episode with @BobEUnlimited where we deep dive into how oil shocks impact the economy and how central banks react. This is the ultimate playbook
Iran Threatens Gulf Gas Assets, Rattles Global Market
Iran appears to be preparing to retaliate after attacks on its giant gas field 🇮🇷 ⚠️ It issued a warning to stay away from a range of similar assets in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE The inclusion of Qatar (home...
Core Producer Prices Surge, Fed Rate Cuts Unlikely
US producer price inflation ex-food and energy came in at the fastest pace since January 2025 for the month of February, before the oil price shock. It's going to be very hard for this Fed to signal rate cuts ahead...
Fed Likely Holds Rates as Iran War Fuels Uncertainty
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at a tenuous moment for the economy as the Iran war drags on. The conflict is expected to amplify internal divisions, injecting yet more uncertainty into the debate around when the Fed...
Inflation Surge Puts Fed Meeting at Crisis Crossroads
Inflation Just EXPLODED 🔥 Does the Fed Have a Crisis on its Hands? Stocks crashed. Gold collapsed. Dollar soared Fed meets TODAY - and this one number could change everything for 2026👇 Follow for updates $SPY $QQQ $DIA $GLD $DXY $USDJPY $ES...
War‑driven Inflation Pushes Oil, Yields, Dollar Higher
Wars are inflationary - and rising oil, yields & dollar are the play. Not metals right now, as warned to clients. #Gold #Silver Wholesale inflation comes in hot for February with producer prices rising 3.4%, the biggest jump in a...
Iran Crisis Pushes Oil to $150, Hurting Voters
Oil is heading to $150 a barrel. And the people who will feel it hardest are the ones who voted for the man who caused it. I sat down to break down exactly what the Iran crisis means for oil markets,...
Trump Missed Iran’s Escalation Ladder, Warns Former Defense Official
Dana Stroul, former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East: “It does not appear that President Trump and his inner circle fully grasped the escalation ladder and range of Iranian retaliation actions" An understatement if I've ever heard one....
Rate Shifts Since Jan FOMC Concentrated at Front End
Rates moves from Jan FOMC to today are basically all in the front end https://t.co/z4SHlodCLM
China’s Gulf‑Iran Balancing Act Strains Amid Escalating Strikes
Can China still maintain good relations with Gulf states and Iran as fighting escalates? Iranian strikes on neighbouring states in response to US and Israeli attacks highlight how difficult Beijing’s balancing act has become https://t.co/nw8sJ9lHjm
PPI Shows No $80+ Oil Days in February
Producer Prices - How much oil data (days > $80) is in this PPI inflation data? PPI vs Brent Move -- Zero days above $80 in this Feb PPI print—WTI cruised the entire month between $61–$67 (avg ~$64.50, peak 67.31 on...
Control of Hormuz Determines Iran War’s Global Impact
Comparing what is now happening with what has happened in analogous historical situations and triangulating my thinking with smart, well-informed leaders and experts has always helped me make better decisions. I have found that most wars are filled with big...
China’s 90% Model Redefines Global Economic Power
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐬𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤. What if China’s economic power is much bigger than we realize? In just 45 seconds, I’ll reveal the truth behind China’s 90% Model and how it’s reshaping industries globally. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐲𝐨𝐮’𝐥𝐥 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧: The insidious strategy behind...
US Strikes on Iran Risk 5% Global Oil Loss
Iran produces 4-5% of the world's total oil supply, making it the 3rd largest producer in OPEC. The best case for this conflict just took a leg lower. At best, this ends in the next 1-2 months and the Strait...
US Economy Slows; Trump’s Iran War Threatens Further Damage
The US economy is losing momentum. In January, consumer spending slowed sharply to a crawl of 1.56% annualized. TRUMP’S WAR ON IRAN PROMISES MORE ECONOMIC DAMAGE. https://t.co/sjumYo1FBt
Fed Decision Zone Signals Hedge Opportunity Near $670
📺 WHY THIS FED MOVE СOULD BE SOLD 🛑 Get my newsletter tomorrow: https://t.co/Rqp84Wg39F The market has shown short-term strength going into the Fed today. $SPY has rallied meaningfully from around $662.34 to the $674 area, a solid move given the macro backdrop...
US Waiver Redirects Russian Oil to India, Squeezes China
Macro: US waiver shifts Russian crude to India, squeezing China; grades flipped to Brent premium 🛢️ Drivers: waiver, Hormuz closure, voyage economics. Risks: geopolitics, supply swings. Trade: buy Indian refinery exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Trump-Netanyahu Iran Conflict Triggers Market Correction, Threatens US Economy
A stock market correction caused by the Trump-Netanyahu War On Iran that spikes oil, yields & dollar poses the greatest risk to the US economy. Fixed it for ya, GS
China Shifts Food Imports From US to Emerging Markets
China retaliated against tariffs by importing much less food from the US in 2025. Canada, Ukraine and the EU also got hit. Instead, China ramped up its food imports from many across emerging markets. Vietnam, Indonesia and Argentina are among...
Energy Becomes National Security, Triggering State‑Driven Markets
🔴Thoughts on the Future of Energy Markets🔴 The most severe long-term consequence of escalating trade wars, tariffs, sanctions, disruptions involving Venezuela, Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and even moves like the Greenland interest isn't just higher prices or short-term supply shocks....
Middle East Conflict Dampens Prospects for 2026 Rate Cuts
President Trump is demanding that the Fed immediately lower borrowing costs. But the war in the Middle East has now made any interest rate cuts much less likely in 2026 — not just in the U.S. but around the world. w/...
Hope Boosts Risk Appetite Ahead of BoC, FOMC
Hope Lifts Risk Appetites Ahead of the Bank of Canada and FOMC Meetings: There are three main talking points today. The first is the war. While it continues to rage, more oil is reportedly moving through the Strait of Hormuz...
Fed Rate Outlook Shifts Dramatically in Three Months
Wild to think just 3 months ago there was an FOMC member projecting a 2-2.25% Fed Funds rate for 2026 (6 cuts from current). How quickly the times change... https://t.co/pLQLDHIdVx
Japan's Gas Prices Surge on Conflict and Weak Yen
Japan's gasoline price hits a record high 📈⚠️ 🛢️ The Middle East conflict and weak yen are delivering a double whammy to Japanese consumers 👉 Japan depends on the Middle East for most of its oil https://t.co/NMJurOwuQM https://t.co/ivLXm4sdIQ
Middle East Flight Cancellations Cost $34‑56 B in Tourism
MORE COLLATERAL DAMAGE FROM THE US-ISRAELI WAR AGAINST IRAN: More than 52,000 flights have been canceled across the Middle East. Roughly 6M passengers have been affected. According to the NYT, the resulting loss of tourist spending alone could range from $34B-$56B this year....
Hope Boosts Stocks and Bonds Pre‑Fed
Hope seems to be lifting equities and bonds ahead of the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve meetings. May WTI is lower but nearly $3 above lows. Hawkish hold may be more convincing from the Fed than the...
Private Credit Strain May Force Fed to Backstop Mania
Will private credit stress push the Fed to once again backstop irrational exuberance ? https://t.co/dnERejAvPo
Upcoming Q2 2026 Macro Themes Webinar – March 18
EVENT | Q2 2026 Macro Themes: Wednesday, March 18, 11:00 AM ET https://t.co/jT4huLbBBJ via @hedgeye
Yield Curve Reflects Economic Quad Cycle, Not Daily Noise
YIELD CURVE: doesn't care about Taco Time Trading, Tourists, etc. It cares about The Quads (i.e. The Cycle) #Quad1 peaked in early FEB and the #Quad3 slowdown continues in the real economy this morning https://t.co/KVMr12qbUs
China Trades Stability for Sovereignty, Not Energy
China offering Taiwan stability in exchange for sovereignty This is less about energy and more about power. China doesn't have spare energy to offer. https://t.co/YAE9bzHoXv #China #Taiwan #Energy #Geopolitics #Power
Hormuz Shock Reveals Fragile Energy‑Food System
Hormuz is a SYSTEMS SHOCK, writes @ctindale Energy → fertilizer → food → unrest → state control. This isn’t a disruption. It’s the exposure of a fragile system built on false efficiency. #Energy #Overshoot #Geopolitics #SupplyChains #Inflation
EU Gas Buyers May Replicate 2022 Spending Surge
This is a key theme for EZ inflation/gas. The curve in gas suggests that EZ buyers hold their nerve, but supply is paramount. The longer it goes on, the higher is the risk that EU buyers will do what...
Hormuz Remains Uncontrollable System Favoring Disruptors
U.S. power can strike targets—but it can’t control Hormuz, writes @citrinowicz Hormuz isn’t a target—it’s a system, and it favors the disruptor. #Hormuz #Geopolitics #Oil #Energy
Gulf Growth Model Crumbles: Deals, Exports, Capital Falter
This isn’t just an energy shock—it’s a structural hit to the Gulf growth model, writes @anasalhajji Deals are collapsing, exports are stalled, capital is coming home. This goes far beyond oil. #Geopolitics #Energy #Gulf #Macro
Trump’s China Delay Signals End of US Asia Pivot
.@JohnDelury: “Are we witnessing the end of the Pivot to Asia?…Trump’s desire to delay his China trip sends a clear message to the region that Washington has a serious bandwidth problem.” https://t.co/z3Dfcg9e3q
1990 Payroll Drop Preceded Oil Shock, Delayed Fed Cuts
Surprised more people arent talking about 1990. Payrolls contracted in the month before the surge in oil prices, which tipped the economy more forcefully into recession. Fed couldn't respond sufficiently, delaying its cutting cycle for 6 months, until energy prices...
Bob Brackett Returns: War in Iran Reshapes Global Gas Flows
NEW ODD LOTS: It’s the return of the legend Bob Brackett @tracyalloway and I talk to Bernstein’s top commodities researcher about war in Iran and how natural gas flows are being reshaped all around the world. https://t.co/DlSfweVsgl
US Welcomes Chinese Dependence, Resists Chinese Market Involvement
.@ZichenWanghere: “The United States is comfortable with economic ties that deepen Chinese reliance on U.S. supply—yet far less willing to tolerate even tightly constrained forms of Chinese participation in the U.S. economy.” https://t.co/DoXfoZWKzl