Live Updates: ECB Interest-Rate Decision Unfolds Now
Follow our live blog for the latest news and updates on the European Central Bank's interest-rate decision https://t.co/Nc9piHPEdR via @jrandow https://t.co/nzehlM7joh
World Portfolio Shows Limited Drawdowns Amid High Inflation
GS: So far, the drawdown for the world portfolio has been limited, especially compared to stagflationary shocks World portfolio 1-year drawdowns (yellow shading denotes periods with US inflation above 3% and rising) https://t.co/Dv0BimDxGJ
Dollar Surge Fizzles: Limited Follow‑Through After Fed Hold
Limited Follow-Through Dollar Today After Yesterday's Surge: The US dollar rallied strongly during the Federal Reserve’s press conference yesterday as rates jumped in response to what was widely seen as a hawkish hold, especially given Chair Powell’s… https://t.co/L0b4ab2cDv https://t.co/JikD6d1Xxj
US 2‑yr Yield Surges, Inflation Breakevens Spike Post‑War
The US 10yr yield is up about 35 bp since the start of the war and the 2yr yield is up about 43 bp. The 2yr break even is up 57 bp to 3.38% and the 10yr breakeven is...
Brazilian Real Set to Rally Amid Higher Oil Prices
We've now reached the point where - four years ago after the invasion of Ukraine - the Brazilian Real began to rally and outperform everyone else. As we settle into a higher-for-longer equilibrium on oil, the same will now start...
Canada’s Inflation Dip Mirrors Slowing Money Supply Growth
Canada's inflation dropped from 2.3% in Jan. to 1.8%/yr in Feb. Canada’s money supply (M3) is growing at 4.0%/yr. That’s a bit below Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~6-8%/yr, a rate consistent with Canada's 1-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A...
Traders Revise BOE, ECB Rate Forecasts Hours Pre‑Decision
Traders shift BOE, ECB rates outlook just hours before policy decisions https://t.co/HA0mTq7RsS via @greg_ritchie @alicegledhill1 https://t.co/CmyGExhjII
Rising Yields Threaten US Economy More Than Iran Conflict
Yields surging are a far more existential threat than Iran at this point. No — this is not coming from a political angle. The US cannot afford this war. ▪️Interest payments nearing ~5% of GDP ▪️Military spending ramping up ▪️Trade deficits worsening as...
Eurozone Data Imminent: Construction Output, Notes, Q4 Labor Costs
5 min until key EZ data drop; Construction output for, checks notes ... January, and Q4 labour costs.
China Pledges SE Asian Energy Cooperation While Halting Fuel Exports
China telling Southeast Asia it's ready to work together on energy security is a little... strange... given they're also banning all fuel exports (something Beijing has yet to publicly acknowledge) https://t.co/tm36jPLTKT
SNB Signals Greater Willingness to Intervene in FX
🇨🇭 Stronger verbal intervention language from the SNB: "the SNB's willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased". https://t.co/yuDHGc7oUG https://t.co/wcrzVudyN7
Trump’s Claim False as Iran Still Disrupts Oil
"Although President Donald Trump says he has 'destroyed 100% of Iran’s Military Capability', the 0% that remains is playing havoc with the global economy by choking off 10-15% of its oil supply." https://t.co/h5NKTbG7R8
China Leads
Sorry it should be Pakistan, India, Singapore, Taiwan, China, Thailand, South Korea and Japan. By volume, China imports the most from Qatar but share of total is also very high so rather exposed.
Rising US Debt Drives Gold and Silver Surge
US national debt just hit ~$39T fueling fiat debasement fears. Gold's parabolic run to $5,000+/oz & silver to $120+/oz? Classic safe-haven hedge against exploding debt, uncertainty, central bank buying & weak dollar. $gld $slv https://t.co/IcA8Eo0nGL
Reserves Meant for Supply Shocks, Not Price Cushioning
Reserves shouldn’t be for cushioning prices at this point… you may never know with the madmen bombing everything in the Middle East, there may be no fuel coming in at all… the reserves are for such times…. If it was...
Eurozone Inflation Below Target as Money Growth Lags
The Eurozone’s inflation comes in at 1.9%/yr. That's below its 2% target. The ECB’s money supply is only growing at 3.4%/yr. That's BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 6%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting ECB’s 2%/yr target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY...
European Gas Spikes 30% After Qatar LNG Plant Hit
European gas prices surge 30% after Qatar said the world’s largest LNG export plant was damaged in an Iranian attack (Still TTF futures are far from the record highs of 2022) https://t.co/FC5b6KjHpJ
Stocks Likely Decline as Fed Cuts Lose Market Support
I can’t really see the scenario where stocks don’t go lower in the near term. Maybe that’s s bull case? Market has been so desperate for a taco people have been making their own and forgot that in an actual...
Admin's Export Restrictions Threaten U.S. Energy Credibility
There's no way that shortly after tweeting this, the admin would destroy international confidence in the reliability of the U.S. as an energy exporter by restricting oil exports? Right?
Fed Caught Between Strong Economy Claims and Market Reality
Powell says the economy is strong and inflation will moderate. The stock market tanked anyway. The Fed may be trapped between geopolitical shocks and economic reality. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/z9r6WCt1RC
Fed Ends Easy Cuts
Takeaways from the March Fed meeting: • The era of 'easy' cuts could be over. Last year's were a recalibration; the next ones have to be earned with better inflation data or downside risks being realized. • The dots weren't as hawkish...
China Emerges as Biggest Loser in Grand Strategy
That's a bad/first echelon take. There is a much larger picture. China is the big loser in their grand strategy plans: https://t.co/usYe48iDIM
Startup Think Tank Leads Deep China FX Policy Analysis
Really? Name one start-up think tank that analyzes the latest twist and turns in China's fx policy with any depth. I would humbly submit that this blog is at the analytical frontier, ahead of what most of...
Trump Tariffs Raise Prices, Squeeze American Families
Trump’s tariffs aren’t just numbers—they’re hitting American families in their wallets, raising prices, and forcing businesses to close.
Saudi Crude Loadings Persist Despite Red Sea Attack Rumors
Lots of chatter in the oil market about whether a Saudi refinery in the Red Sea was attacked or not. One thing, however, appears clear: crude loadings at Yanbu and Al Muajjiz continue as normal, with 4 tankers getting their...
Container Congestion Relaxes Post‑Iran Shock, Rates Stay High
Container port congestion eases after initial Iran shock Initial disruption to container supply chains from the Middle East crisis appears to have eased but rates remain elevated. https://t.co/fvMVOw29Pz
Oil Shock Repricing Begins; Inflation or Slow Growth Hurts Stocks
OUT NOW - how @BobEUnlimited sees it: - the repricing of the oil shock into markets is "just getting started" - higher inflation or lower growth, BOTH scenarios are bad for stocks Apple https://t.co/tA37rAtLtM Spotify https://t.co/wRcaaAtWld YouTube https://t.co/RDM5IJfiVx https://t.co/0Zt9BALTn7
Oil Price Spikes Historically Signal Upcoming Recessions
This is a remarkable chart. Oil surges like the one we’ve seen recently have consistently preceded recessions. Chart by @thierryborgeat https://t.co/GpMNhNl06Y
Iran Hits Qatar LNG Hub, Threatening Global Supply
Iran has successfully broken through Qatari air defenses for the second day in a row, this time striking the globally significant Ras Laffan energy complex. The strikes come after Iran’s own natural gas processing plants along the shared North Dome/South Pars...
Demand Collapse Shifts Crisis From Inflation to Growth Shock
Demand destruction started in Asia and spreading to Egypt. The only way this equation will square when supply is short is for demand to fall. Prices higher & demand falling means growth will be a challenge. The crisis will move from...
BWET Triples; New Iran Conflict Beta Watchlist Unveiled
Since our January 13th macro memo, our top weighted pick BWET has more than tripled (and seems set to go even higher). Today, we released to subscribers a new list of names that have yet to reprice as violently in...
Iran's Collapse Won’t Mirror Yemen’s Strategic Gains
Turning Iran into Yemen isn't the strategic victory some people may expect if Red Sea shipping is anything to go by.
Fed's Latest Move Hints at Future Policy Amid Iran, Tariffs
Let me be your Fed whisperer. What the Fed decided, what we can infer about it's next steps, how Iran and tariffs factored in, and what it all means for you. https://t.co/3JC756KIAH
Iranian Missile Damages Qatar LNG Hub, Threatens Global Supply
Qatars industrial complex housing the world’s largest LNG export plant suffered “extensive damage” after an Iranian missile strike 🇶🇦 ⚠️ The plant provides 20% of global LNG supply, and was shut earlier this month. But a delayed restart (due to...
Export Limits Would Backfire, Raising U.S. Gas Prices
In my latest @ColumbiaUEnergy Energy Explained blog post, Neelesh Nerurkar & I argue that restricting US oil exports, once again reportedly being discussed in DC, would backfire—offering little relief to US consumers while imposing more significant economic and geopolitical costs
FOMC's Dovish Pause Masks Hawkish Stagflation Risks
Participants at the FOMC meeting rounded the wagons around Powell at a difficult moment for Fed independence. What looked like a dovish pause on the surface had hawkish undertones. Risks to meeting participants forecasts were to the downside on growth,...
Powell Warns White House, Asserts Fed’s Crucial Leverage
Fed Chair Jay Powell fired a warning shot today, reminding the White House that he holds some pretty important cards. Yes, it's drama, melodrama and soap opera. But it also really matters. And I admire how Powell has handled himself here....
Hormuz Closure Sparks Oil Spike, Not Deficit Monetization
If Hormuz is still closed in a month (it likely will be), this is going to turn into "We are doing more not-QE RMP's into an oil spike, but we are NOT monetizing deficits" so fast that investors heads will...
Middle East Crude Exports Plunge 25‑67%
Not looking good. Crude exports down between 25% and 67% from the Middle East, depending on country
Trump Tariffs Might Boost Canada by Expanding Global Trade
Could Trump Tariffs Work to Canada's Advantage? The calculation: Maintain trade w/USA more or less as is, but add a great deal more trade with other countries. Econ prof Joe Steinberg, @UofT, unravels Trump's trade mess. #cdnpoli https://youtu.be/nOR2AvDzqGc
Supply‑Shock Focus Increases Inflation Anxiety, Drives Hawk Turns
If you think demand played a large roll in the pandemic inflation, you are a lot less worried today. If you think it was mostly supply shocks, well you are more worried about supply shocks being inflationary. This explains some...
Trump Blames Fed While His Policies Fuel Market Decline
President Trump claiming the stock market is doing down because of Fed Chair Powell. The stock market has declined because of the conflict in the Middle East, higher oil price and risk of rising inflation. So, the President himself is responsible...
Outdated February Inflation Data Misrepresents Current Price Trends
Using an inflation print from February before the Iran war even began to say that there's been no inflation >
FOMC Tweaks Dwarfed by Middle East Turmoil
The FOMC's forecast revisions were tiny compared to the images we're seeing from the Middle East.
US May Have Sparked War to Deter China’s Taiwan Ambitions
For the geopolitical experts out there - what are the odds that the US was keen to start this war due to intel that China was looking to make a move on Taiwan and that an energy crisis / Strait...
China's Oil Route Closure Threatens Growth, Hits FXI
$FXI down 8% since January. China imports the bulk of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged closure doesn't just hit energy costs. It hits the entire growth model. https://t.co/lSosVCvxcm
Powell's Hawkish Tone Signals No Rate Cuts Yet
That was a hawkish presser. JP discounted the latest NFP print and revisions. Spent time discussing rate hikes even if hypothetical. Highlighted anchored inflation expectation as a prerequisite for further rate cuts.
Markets Dip; Fed Intervention Likely Needed Soon
Markets didn't like that. Going to need to trot out some fed representative and clean it up soon is my guess.
China’s Surplus Soars, Europe Squeezed by Energy and Competition
China's manufacturing surplus looks to have taken another leg up. Always a good idea to get confirmation in March given the new year distortions. But Europe looks to be getting squeezed both by China and higher energy prices https://t.co/8EZnqysgKL
Powell Refuses to Call Tariff Inflation Impact Certain
Powell says he definitely would not use the word "certain" to describe his view on the onetimeness of the inflationary effect of tariffs