US, Allies Push De‑Escalation as Iran Escalates; Hormuz Closed
The US and its allies are making a concerted effort to de-escalate the oil/gas war, having witnessed that Iran was willing -- and able -- to climb the escalation ladder very quickly. To be seen whether Tehran plays ball. Whatever the case, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
China's Actions Could Cripple Global Fertilizer Supply
As with fuel, so with fertilizers. If maintained, China will remove a major global fertilizer exporter (second largest in 2024) from the market already slammed by the closure of the Straits https://t.co/ecZOLrSkBL
Stagflation: Prices Rise While Economy Slows
By the way, this is what stagflation feels like. Prices are going up, even though the economy is slowing down. It’s the worst economic indicator.
BoC Holds Rates; War Fuels Rising Inflation
Bank of Canada won’t be cutting rates anytime soon. Inflation is rising because of the war 🇮🇷
ECB Predicts Inflation Peaks at 6.3% by 2027
ECB sees inflation peaking at 6.3% in 2027 under severe scenario https://t.co/dHGmN1t9Cw via @weberalexander https://t.co/tdjWSfPgLG
Mearsheimer Warns Iran Is a Formidable Strategic Opponent
Distinguished Prof. John Mearsheimer on Iran’s strategy: “When you listen to Hegseth and Trump talk, they talk about the Iranians like they’re a bunch of country bumpkins and we’re the strategic geniuses...I think that's not the case…we are up against a formidable...
US Skips Crude Export Ban, Eyes Refined Limits
*US WILL NOT IMPLEMENT CRUDE EXPORT BAN: POLITICO ... OK, so how about refined products? I've been saying up 'till now that they're going to be tempted to restrict trade, but that I thought they'd be more likely to restrict refined products...
Iran Conflict Threatens Global Energy Summit, 47‑Year Tension
Iran war looms over global energy summit @CERAWeek it's "been brewing for 47 years," says historian @DanielYergin, whose own career rose alongside energy geopolitics. https://t.co/MsWAVCPXhv via @axios
Fed's Data Focus: Charles Payne Analyzes Decision-Making
Will the Fed look at the data? — #charlespayne and I break it down https://t.co/qyX222T1qM #powell #dimartinobooth #economy
Asian Demand Drives Premium Oil Bids, Not Manipulation
Why is everyone assuming CL manipulation and not just occam's razor that asian markets need oil and they cant access landlocked wti as easily and are all bidding up whatever is accessible even if at a significant premium
Polymarket Odds Mirror 2‑year Yield on 2026 Rate Cut
The Polymarket odds of "no rate cut in 2026" continue to generally track the 2-year yield https://t.co/VY0P2eN1XO
European Leaders Assess Middle East War Costs in Brussels
Europe counts the cost of Middle East war as leaders meet in Brussels https://t.co/Uw7ebXs3sG via @suzannelynch1 https://t.co/4He3c2iNMm
Food Inflation Fuels Political Instability, Threatening the Poor
15 years ago, the New England Complex Systems Institute looked at the relationship between food inflation and political instability. I can't emphasize its relevance now as inflation in everything is trampling those at the bottom. https://t.co/Wg5XzDJZAk https://t.co/Se3PcLw0YI
VIX Plunge Signals Rising Market Complacency Amid Stress
$VIX: 27.85 on March 13. 21.51 now. A 6+ point collapse in one week while oil trades near $100, the Fed just held, and private credit is cracking. Complacency doesn't announce itself. It just shows up in the $VIX. https://t.co/QOUSwv6YZ0
ECB Baseline Obsolete as Markets Price Adverse Inflation
🇪🇺 Unfortunately for the ECB, and despite the staff best efforts to use a later-than-usual cut-off date, their baseline scenario looks instantly obsolete. Market pricing for inflation is already consistent with the adverse scenarios. The main question is about indirect effects....
Argentina's 33% Inflation Fueled by Excess Money Supply
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 33.1%/yr. Argentina’s money supply (M3) is growing at 31.8%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 14.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its de facto 10%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = PRES. MILEI'S ACHILLES...
2‑Year Yield Jump Signals Imminent Fed Rate Hike
The 2 year U.S. Treasury yield has risen 50 basis points in less than three weeks. It now suggests one Fed HIKE may be coming.
US and Brazil Negotiate Critical Mineral Partnership
US in talks with Brazil on critical minerals, US diplomat says at signing of Goias state deal https://t.co/zjFAOPA2pI
De-Dollarization Gold Theory Dead, I Remain Defensive
The de-dollarization thesis driving gold may be well and truly dead. I'm acting defensively. I have failed - once again - to internalize a theory of mind for pathological narcissists and psychopaths.
ECB Forecasts Mild Recession With
🇪🇺 ECB's risks scenarios, including a severe shock generating a mild recession, a rise in unemployment and core inflation peaking at 4%. The latter don't include any monetary policy change as @Lagarde noted, as opposed to the staff which accounts...
ECB's Caution Highlights BoE's Bold Move
its funny (to me) that the ECB obviously looked at the BoE statement today and thought "OK, lets not do anything THAT crazy". The BoE... making the ECB seem sensible
Lagarde’s Mic‑drop Secures Two ECB Rate Hikes
If I heard correctly, Lagarde just talked the ECB into two hikes this year with her mic drop at the end.
Lagarde Signals Two Rate Hikes in Upgraded Outlook
Wait what ... that was a bonkers cliff hanger by Lagarde. She basically say that their *upgraded* inflation baseline, and new growth forecasts, includes two hikes this year?! While their scenarios include nothing. That basically underwrites market expectations ... as...
Lagarde Leans on “Propagation” Amid Inflation Uncertainty
ECB's Lagarde is asked to be specific on inflation in a bad case scenario. Instead of Powell's "I dunno", Lagarde says: be patient, I'll expand. Longer speech on "particularly attentive to..." -- uses the magic word "second round effect" --...
China Trip Chaos Deepens Beijing's Frustration with US
Chaos over China trip likely to further test Beijing’s patience US leader’s call for delay as he focuses on Iran war follows reports of growing frustration at White House’s erratic behaviour Yes, Beijing hardly views as US "in control".... https://t.co/L5evYyMnMB via @scmpnews
Fed Diverges, Creating Clean Macro Trade Opportunity
🚨Every central bank just warned us about inflation Here's what happened this week: ↳ Fed still stuck on easing ↳ ECB and BOE market pricing in 2-3 rate HIKES in 2026 ↳ BOJ keeping its tightening bias intact ↳ SNB hinting at negative rates to...
War, Debt, and Inflation Will Cripple Growth Stocks
Growth stocks will be severely decapitated from this war. I just check some data and growth stocks valuations will get capped. Working overtime to get the data ready. It’s not as simple as just buying the dip with 1. Cost of War 2. Escalation of...
Lag
Have a sense this will be a hawkish presser, on balance ... difficult for Lagarde to push back against market expectations given these new forecasts, unless you take a very asymmetric view on inflation v growth risks, which they may...
European Gas Prices Soar, Boosting US Nat Gas Asset Value
European gas is now >6x the price of US gas. US nat gas assets becoming more valuable by the day.
Germany Mulls Windfall Tax Amid Iran War‑driven Fuel Surge
Germany weighs windfall tax as Iran war drives fuel price surge https://t.co/9SNpQgvAXy via @KowalczeKamil https://t.co/YrOXXrSiVq
ECB Sees Higher Inflation, yet Hesitates to Tighten
Big plot twist for the ECB; yes their forecasts might be out of date, but the HICP fcts are reasonably punchy for 2026 ... smart move; the big question though is; why not tighten? They see materially higher inflation and...
Iran Conflict Threatens Chip Makers' Middle East Fuel Supply
"Iran war could cause supply chain kinks: Taiwan and Korea, top chip producers, rely on the Middle East for nearly 70% of their crude oil imports, and 20-25% of LNG imports." - BofA on AI capex
ECB Holds Rate at 2% Amid War‑Driven Risks
#ECB leaves deposit rate at 2.00% as expected. Says war poses upside inflation risks, downside growth risks. Says to decide based on core inflation, transmission strength. Says not pre-committing to particular rate path. https://t.co/9tExdmlBDB
UK's Weak Economy Meets Hawkish Bank, Outlook Grim
The UK has managed to combine the weakest economy with the most hawkish central bank. Bound to end well
No Tax Increases, $40 Trillion Debt Looms
There's zero talk of raising taxes to fund this. $40 trillion in National Debt coming soon... https://t.co/zauvCi19PA
US Foreign Policy Alienates Allies, Prompting Australian Rethink
An obvious comment on US Foreign Policy: US foreign policy is self-defeating. a. spend a year beating up on allies, threatening to take land (Greenland) from a NATO ally b. wage a trade war against your allies. Sure the tariffs were...
Oil Price Surge Threatens Poor as Egypt Cuts Power
Brent crude, global oil benchmark, rose by 8% to $116 a barrel. This will hurt everyone, especially the poor badly. Egypt has already restricted electricity use.... https://t.co/WIVr01CV5C
US Export Sales Flat; Wheat, Soybeans Miss Expectations
🇺🇸U.S. export sales were modest all around last week with wheat and soybeans falling below all expectations. The corn volume is a bit more normal for the week historically but somewhat underwhelming in the context of 2025/26's record pace. https://t.co/3LR2fLgFuR
Cleveland Fed Predicts 3% CPI, Hikes Outweigh Cuts
The Cleveland Fed is now forecasting a 3% CPI Inflation reading for March, up from 2.4% in February. There is now a higher probability of a Fed rate HIKE (8%) in April than a rate CUT (0%). https://t.co/yoWBJBbDDN
Oil Spike Is Tax, Not Rally, Hits Consumers
Brent near $110. WTI at $96-103. Strait of Hormuz blocked. $XLE at all-time highs. $SPY at 2026 lows. This is not an oil rally. This is a tax on every consumer, every margin, every growth assumption. https://t.co/QUhNdfGuZ7
Europe’s Gas Crisis Sparks Powerlessness, Calls for Referendum
The problem with soaring gas prices in Europe is that it is deja vu all over again when it comes to extreme powerlessness. FWIW - It is hard to imagine Europe gets through this without a voter referendum on powerlessness. Needless to...
Grant Licenses to Producers if Export Ban Looms
If an oil export ban is coming, they should grant export licenses to anyone increasing production
US Waivers De‑Stigmatize Russian Oil, Boosting Putin
Big thanks to @Aaron_Krolik for including me in this great @nytimes story on how Russia is a major beneficiary from the sharp rise in oil prices. Temporary US waivers of Russia sanctions are de-stigmatizing Russian oil and giving Putin a...
UK Yields Surge, Highlighting Limited Fiscal Headroom
UK 2 year yield + 23bps UK 5 year yield +22bps UK 10 year yield +13bps About that fiscal headroom 🤔
Geopolitical Oil Surge Threatens India's Inflation and Rupee
Surging Crude Oil Prices: The geopolitical unrest caused Brent crude oil prices to spike past $115–$118 per barrel. As a major energy importer, this poses a significant risk to India's inflation outlook, the rupee, and corporate profit margins.
BOE Holds Rates, Signals Readiness to Act
BOE ‘stands ready to act’ as it unanimously votes to hold rates https://t.co/5iLfNT8re7 via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/Trmh2hkLBw
Gold Slides as BoE Signals Two 2026 Hikes
#Gold takes more beating as #BoE grows hawkish mkt prices TWO rate hikes in 2026 #forex
Commodity Prices, Not War, Driving Canada’s Inflation Surge
the Canadian government is gaslighting Canadians again to buy into the inflation is rising because of the U.S./Israel vs. Iran war... not true. tell them commodity prices were rising, in an uptrend, and (rising) more strongly than $TSX stocks, before the...
Market Turns Hawkish, Forecasts Only 9bps Cuts in 2024
The market's implied forecasts for Fed rate forecasts through 2026 now only projects -9bps of rate cuts this year. So the market is more hawkish than the Fed's forecast - the market was more dovish than the Fed two weeks...
Fed Shifts to Fewer Rate Cuts, Embraces Higher‑For‑Longer Policy
Fed held at 3.5-3.75%. 7 of 19 members see ZERO cuts in 2026. Dot plot: 1 cut this year, 1 more in 2027. Six months ago the consensus was 3+ cuts. Higher for longer isn't a threat anymore. It's policy. https://t.co/vbJxcKjym9