Rising Gas Prices Drag Down Discretionary Spending
Energy sector $XLE: +33% YTD Consumer Discretionary sector $XLY: -10% YTD Higher gas prices are expected to reduce discretionary spending. The more you spend at the pump, the less you have to spend elsewhere (travel, restaurants, clothing, etc.). Video: https://t.co/kTI1Olplo7
Japan’s Energy Dependence Exposes Vulnerability Without US Consent
Sad but true: “Japan can’t cut a deal with Iran without U.S. approval” And that’s why Japanese are protesting now. Energy insecurity in Japan can turn food insecurity can trigger events that US equity, bond, currency market are not pricing in. And Trump’s...
Essentials Soar, Tech and Toys Plummet Since 2000
PRICE CHANGES 2000-2025: Massive price increases (100%-300% ↑) • hospital services (+275%) 🩻 • college tuition (+196%) 🎓 • child care 🛝 • medical care 🏥 • housing 🏡 • food and beverages 🥘🥤 Significant price decreases: • TV📺 • computer software💿 • toys🧸 https://t.co/Cu5vmq9OuE
Higher Oil Prices Not Always Bad for Stocks
How Do Higher Oil Prices Impact Stock Market Returns? An analysis of historical oil price trends and stock market returns indicates that higher oil prices don't necessarily lead to weaker stock market returns going forward. (Ben Carlson @awealthofcs) This #WeekendReading,...
China, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore Led Pre‑
But it is more accurate -- Before the latest oil shock the really big surpluses were China, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore (more an investment income dollar but ... )
China’s Rare Earth Dominance Fuels Global Mineral War
China's Rare Earth Weapon: Inside the "Mineral War" with Tomasz Nadrowski. Read more and sign up to my newsletter here: https://t.co/uDfSXat1Xl https://t.co/MXFQAofK9T
Deregulation Shocks Drive Investment, Productivity, and GDP Growth
"Quantifying Deregulation and its Economic Effects: A Large Language Model Approach" https://t.co/roqt5w8PzH "Positive shocks to deregulation boost investment, productivity, stock prices, profits, and GDP" 👀 https://t.co/3GEjbPT2Fx
California's Gas Supply Depends on Asian Petroleum Imports
What if Asia gets worried and stops sending petroleum to California. (Where did you think Californians get their gas since @GavinNewsom started closing oil refineries?)
Trump’s Actions Erode US Hegemony and Military Supply
Let’s unpack this: US exceptionalism/hegemony is based on our “security guarantees” which Trump clearly voided for our Gulf Arab allies when he and Netanyahu started a war on Iran (and Lebanon). And Trump also started a trade war with China that extracts,...
Trade Slowdown Milder than Expected, but Conflict Threatens Sharper Dip
Global merchandise trade will slow less this year than the WTO predicted, but risks a sharper downturn if prolonged Middle East conflict keeps energy prices elevated https://t.co/nhU9axrKFm via @b_muzz https://t.co/Vo7S63a3JN
Supply Chain Gaps Cripple Energy Despite Abundant Output
"The Waha market’s collapse underscores a pressing issue in global energy: Even when there’s enough raw-material output, many parts of the world lack the critical supply chains necessary to ship product where it’s needed" https://t.co/SUdaWtbJpH https://t.co/I9cYdXcGNR
Bombing Iran's Plants Equals De Facto Embargo, Says Analyst
If the US bombs Iran's power plants, there's no power to fill up oil tankers, so it's an embargo. Same with taking Kharg Island by force. Iran will stop exporting oil, so it's an embargo. Much better to do an...
Middle East Sulfur Reliance Fuels Fertilizer Supply Shock
"Fertilizer Shock Escalates as New Supply Risks Emerge" https://t.co/lgfrgMYRFg "almost half of the world’s supply of sulfur—which is turned into sulfuric acid for the processing of phosphate fertilizer—comes from countries in the Middle East" And US tariffs are making things worse:
Gold Set for Sharp Rebound After Emergency Fed Cut
Gold will bounce hard when fed Does emergency rate cut next week or two and all margin accounts stopped out. https://t.co/l3tZYexfCr
Hyun Song Shin, Senior BIS Economist, Appointed BOK Governor
Senior BIS economist @HyunSongShin has been named by South Korea’s president to run the Bank of Korea https://t.co/NVLP6R3Dox
Rising Short‑term Rates Threaten High‑debt Nations
Short-term rates (black) are rising as markets settle in for a long war. That pushes up long-term yields, a problem for any high-debt country out there. The last time we saw this in 2022, Italy and Spain needed ECB bailouts...
Markets Aggregate Opinions with Cash, Revealing Future Expectations
Markets are useful for the same reason polls are useful: not because they’re flawless, but because they aggregate lots of views. The difference is investors back their opinions with cash. Stocks aren’t GDP, but they do reveal what people expect...
Markets Tighten on Trump Amid Bond, Credit Strain
Markets have been the ultimate constraint on Trump and they're starting to look very iffy, especially where the US bond market (bottom left) and private credit (bottom right) are concerned. If the US escalates the war with Iran, markets will...
US Markets Hold Up as Global Stocks Falter Amid War
This WSJ chart comparing the decline in US and international stock markets reflects the underlying economic reality: While the global economy is reeling from the Middle East War, the US is relatively better positioned. This is especially true for energy where the...
U.S. Leaders Debate China Without Ever Visiting
Washington Is Flying Blind on China Americans talk incessantly about the need to compete with their country’s greatest rival and how to do it. Yet many U.S. policymakers have never been to China. Impacts quality of the debate clearly... https://t.co/ghNp4u7uqt
PMIs Dominate Global Outlook as US Data Stalls
Light on US data next week but PMIs are key. These are the events to watch 👇 🇺🇸 US Jobless Claims & UMich Revisions 🇪🇺 EU - PMIs and GE IFO 🇬🇧 GBP -PMIs -Retail Sales -CPI 🇦🇺 AU -PMIs -CPI 🇯🇵 JP -CPI -BoJ Minutes
War, Volatility Premium, and Oil Shock Stress Fed
Lots of unusual stuff going on in markets right now. A war that’s tough to price, a big vol premium with VIX still in the 20s, and an oil shock putting the Fed in a tough spot. @CultishCreative and I break it...
Oil, Rare Earths, and Microchips: Modern Power Weapons
The New Weapons of Global Power Are Oil, Rare Earths and Microchips This is a classic WSJ story, very well executed concept, good insights. Good read. https://t.co/OLjtrroo6Y
Rate‑cut Odds Plunge From Near Certainty to 14.5%
The odds of a rate cut in 2026 have fallen to 14.5%. Just 3 weeks ago, they were nearly 100%. https://t.co/uMCjhmatJN
European Trade Pressures Analyzed in New Spanish Article
A recent piece by Enrico Fardella and me on European trade pressures, translated into Spanish by Agenda Publica https://t.co/5AEY665Tjb
Trump, Iran Threaten Gulf Energy Targets, Raising Global Crisis Risks
TEL AVIV/JERUSALEM/WASHINGTON, March 22 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran threatened to escalate their war by attacking energy facilities in the Gulf, a potential widening of hostilities which could deepen a regional crisis and add to concerns in...
Rising Rates Push US Toward Gold Amid War Funding
Fascinating how the surge in interest rates is driving these decisions. The US will have to address this. It’s the only way it can realistically afford a war in the first place. Inflation will be unleashed. Rates will be capped. Time to step into gold,...
Impending LNG Shortage Highlights Energy Security Risks
The last LNG tankers from the Gulf arrive in the next 10 days. After that, many countries face a sharp drop in supply. Qatar's Ras Laffan — 20% of global LNG — could be offline for 3-5 years. Fossil fuel...
Ignoring Growth Shock, Rate Hikes Risk Recession
This "bet" completely ignores the negative shock to economic growth. If central banks raise rates into this, they will cause a recession. Cc @BenRamanauskas
ECB Poised to Act if War Fuels 2% Inflation Expectations
The ECB is ready to respond swiftly to signs that inflation expectations are surpassing 2% because of the Iran war, Joachim Nagel says https://t.co/rFFN40ION8 https://t.co/Eb51dA3MrT
AI Capex Boosts US GDP,
AI macro: capex adds ~0.4pp to US GDP; supply-chain winners: Taiwan, Korea, Mexico. US leads models; China scales manufacture. Risks: skills gap, geopolitics. Trade: buy Taiwan semiconductors. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Iran Rakes $2.5B From Oil Amid War
Aside the relaxation of US sanctions on Iranian oil, for Tehran the big win is the fact that >20 days into the war, it’s still exporting oil via Hormuz. At ~1.5m b/d (and assuming $85 a barrel) that’s a ~$2.5...
China's Premier Acknowledges Trade Surplus Amid Export Surge
1/4 Bloomberg: "Chinese Premier Li Qiang has responded to growing calls from trading partners to address a rising trade surplus, with China’s exports continuing to surge in the first two months of the year." https://t.co/EMOs1RWaAX
Navigating Investor Strategies Amid Iran War Pullback
What are you doing as an investor during this market pullback from the Iran war?
Opening Hormuz Won’t Instantly Resolve Iran‑Trump Tensions
If Iran—facing threats from President Trump—now announces that the Strait of Hormuz is OPEN, would that immediately end the crisis and get ships moving through it again? Why or why not?
Houthis Threaten Dual Strait Disruption, Global Panic Looms
What if the Houthis enter the war, asks @citrinowicz ? A disruption at Bab el-Mandeb, on top of Hormuz, would turn global economic shock into panic #RedSea #Houthis #Hormuz #OilMarkets #SupplyShock #EnergySecurity #Trade #Geopolitics
Iran Crisis May Trigger Inequality Shock Through Corporate Price Gouging
Inequality shock is the next risk from the Iran crisis Shortages give dominant firms cover to raise prices, protect margins, and push the pain onto everyone else Hormuz could become not just an energy shock, but an inequality shock https://t.co/J5Rdjxc0KI #Inequality #Inflation #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis...
Military-Economic Gap Delays Hormuz Response, Threatening Trade
These comments by former @CENTCOM commander General Votel highlights a disconnect between the military and economic strategy regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Attacks on shipping and the Strait were expected. When it comes to escorts, General Votel acknowledged that it can...
Trump Can’t Count on TACO Amid Iran Hormuz Threat
TACO is not an option for Trump, writes @biancoresearch He can't leave Iran in control of Hormuz Crude won’t calm down and markets won’t recover. #IranWar #Hormuz #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Trump #Geopolitics #Macro #MiddleEast
Money Supply Growth Exceeds Target, Fuelling Pakistan Inflation
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan's inflation is 7.0%/yr. Pak's money supply (M3) is growing at 15.1%/yr. That’s above Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.5%/yr-13.5%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Pakistan's inflation target of 5%/yr-7%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/x28UBeLyKl
Modi’s Calm Highlights India’s Strategic Autonomy Advantage
While the US and Israel escalate, Modi plays it cool. INDIA'S STRATEGIC AUTONOMY = A WINNING HAND. https://t.co/T87Vj30GN9
Treasury Yields Spike, Curve Uninverts, Signaling Rate Hike
2-Year, 3-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Flip to Rate Hike. Yield Curve Uninverts. Government Sold $606 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week as the Borrowing Must Go On. Whiff of turmoil in the bond market as inflation fears moved to the front...
Policy Failures Echo 1970s: Oil, Inflation, Endless Wars
The stupid sonofabitch wanted to make it the 1950s again and we’re ending up in the 1970s: - Oil shocks crushing Americans at the pump, - Inflation eating Americans’ paychecks, - American solders sent to fight pointless wars with no plan. https://t.co/7iRuS28mfB
Middle East War Expands Threat to Global Supply Chains
This, from Bloomberg, illustrates how the Middle East War threatens a widening set of global supply chains. (On Monday, the FT is scheduled to post my column on a separate global risk that has yet to receive sufficient attention: the likely...
Oil‑Yen Link Signals Bigger Carry‑trade Risk
Everyone is watching oil in dollars. Almost nobody is watching oil in yen. That's where the real risk is. If Japan panics, the carry trade unwinds again — and this time it won't be a two-day event. I laid it all out on CNBC...
Iran's Qatar Attack Fuels US LNG Demand Surge
Iran’s attacks on Qatar’s LNG export plant could be one of the biggest tailwinds yet to the fast-growing US LNG sector 🇺🇸 🚢 🇹🇼 Taiwan said it plans to buy more LNG from the US from June 🇧🇩 Bangladesh is exploring...
Trump Demands Iran Open Hormuz Strait in 48 Hours
TRUMP GIVES IRAN 48 HOURS TO OPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ=== this ain't no tariffs deadline
Iran War's End Triggers Global Supply Chain Chaos
When the Iran war ends. How the Iran war ends. Will firms around the world be dealing with their own circles of supply chain hell? All the products. Their applications. How and how long to fix? And the cost? https://t.co/ViUVhryJZY
Households Bear Cost as War Spikes Prices
So far, the US economy has remained resilient in the face of rising oil prices from the US-Israeli war on Iran. But the REAL LOSER has been AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS. The price of gasoline, food and electricity are SOARING. TRUMP’S WAR = AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMS....
Higher Energy Products, Debt‑Heavy West Stalls Stagflation Fight
In 1973, the oil embargo lasted 5m & caused a decade of stagflation. The world was not globalized & things were sourced locally. 1) Today the ENERGY CONTENT of products around you is much much higher than 1973. 2) The West has...