Inflation Stays Hot, Jobs Data Disappoints, Macro Unchanged
PCE, CPI & PPI were running hot even before the Iran war’s oil shock, writes @JohnFMauldin @DavidBahnsen says Feb jobs data was “surprisingly bad” Mauldin sees the familiar muddle-through story with AI capex, services & manufacturing I see an "unsurprisingly bad" macro https://t.co/EGIOgUMGxc #Inflation #Jobs #Economy #Oil #IranWar
Germany's Real 10‑Year Yields Turn Positive After Decade
Good Morning from #Germany, where 10y govt bond yields have risen >3%, their highest level since 2011. The recent increase is driven disproportionately by higher long-term inflation expectations – meaning real 10y yields have fallen from 1.35% to 0.77%. The chart...
War's Toll on Britain's Economy Explained
Catch my take at 11:30am on the impact of war on the British economy #skynews
10‑Year Yield Near 4.4% Sparks Epic Week Ahead
The 10-year approaching 4.4% and then we get this "drop" from the president. Another FAFO moment? This coming week will be epic.
US‑Israeli Strikes on Iran Risk Spiraling Out of Control
Former British Diplomat Alastair Crooke on US-Israeli attacks on Iran: "The wheels are coming off this whole thing. It's spiraling really out of control. And it increased enormously with the [recent] attack on the Iranian South Pars gas field... That was...
Goldman: US‑Israeli Strike Triggers Historic Energy Disruption
Goldman > The unprecedented US and Israeli coordinated attack on Iran has resulted in the largest energy supply disruption in history.
Chinese Automakers Target 2026 Overseas Sales to Counter Domestic Slump
Caixin: "Major Chinese carmakers are setting ambitious overseas sales and localized production targets for 2026 to offset a cooling domestic market." https://t.co/P0EUxL3lEN
China's Trust Sector Abandons Risky Real‑Estate Debt Model
Caixin: "Driven by a regulatory crackdown on risk in the financial system, China's multitrillion-dollar trust industry is being forced to abandon its old, highly profitable model of funneling funds into non-standard debt for real estate projects and local governments." https://t.co/eN5eDafjR4
China, US Pledge New Mechanisms to Boost Trade
People's Daily: "China and the US agreed to explore the establishment of working mechanisms to expand economic and trade cooperation, continue to make good use of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism, strengthen dialogue and communication, properly manage differences,...
China's Fixed-Asset Investment Grows 1.8% Early 2024
1/8 Caixin: "China’s fixed-asset investment (FAI) returned to growth in the first two months of this year, rising 1.8% year on year, beating expectations as infrastructure spending jumped." https://t.co/cCOIgPDXNn
US Overkills with Expensive Missiles, Ignoring
I'm a little ambivalent about the Iran war. On the plus side, America needed to learn how to fight a modern war. And it'll make Trump unpopular. On the minus side it'll kill a bunch of people and hurt the global economy
Trump's Iran Move Could Lift November Market Lows
The stock market reaches its November low and President Trump considers ending the Iran conflict. Hopefully this war will end soon, enough lives lost already. Any good news and the stock market will be off to the races. $NDX $SPX...
Huge Supply Shock Triggers Market Overreaction, Says BlackRock
Rick Rieder of BlackRock told Unhedged. 👉 “This is one of the largest supply shocks we’ve seen in a generation, 👉markets have had to react quickly, 💥 when markets move quickly, they overreact.” https://t.co/RRf6LgSI91
Trump's Iran Waiver Releases 140M Barrels, May Cut Prices
🟥TRUMP’S SURPRISE IRAN OIL U-TURN: 30-Day Waiver Unlocks 140M Barrels: ▪️Will IT LOWER OIL PRICES? (ask your company to subscribe) Link: https://t.co/XUVxhDoQuD
Middle East Crisis Disrupts Global Energy Distribution Networks
The Narrowing Straits: Why the Middle East Crisis is a Fault Line for Global Industry "..headlines focus on price of oil at the pump, a deeper story lies in dislocation of energy markets and the global breakdown in the traditional distribution...
Hormuz: Global Economy’s Fragile Artery Exposes Thin Margins
You're right about the big picture of thin margins, structural dependence & denial @ashokdadhwal196 But Hormuz is not merely “a chokepoint.” It is the central artery of the global economy. We knew that before things overshot so much #OilMarkets #Hormuz #Geopolitics...
Gulf Oil Disruption Marks Historic, Long‑term Shock
Gulf oil and gas flows may take months or years to restore. That means this is not a temporary price spike. It's the biggest oil shock in history And it hits the heart of the global economy. https://t.co/DOP0vnh2av #OilMarkets #LNG #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #IranWar
US Attacks Iran yet Approves Its Oil Sales
So, just to be clear. 1️⃣US & Iran sever ties 2️⃣US sanctions Iranian oil 3️⃣US attacks Iran 4️⃣Iran attacks shipping cutting off the flow of oil 5️⃣The US approves the sale of Iranian oil in the US https://t.co/USz8VfvQGc
Middle East Conflict Risks Disrupting Crucial Remittance Streams
Middle East conflict threatens to disrupt vital remittance flows: As Iranian strikes on Gulf energy and finance targets enter their fourth week, attention is shifting to how a protracted conflict may impace remittance flows from the region. @TheBanker: https://t.co/4x3Ae5yVhD https://t.co/vPgl44Nolf
US May Import Iranian Oil for First Time Since Carter
So under this OFAC licence, the US could (though probably won't) import its first Iranian oil since Jimmy Carter https://t.co/7slkt1bAxs
Trump Lifts Ban, Allows US Trade of Iranian Oil
"Trump just authorized Americans to trade Iranian oil for the first time since Clinton banned Americans from doing so in 1995." @petereharrell
Canada’s Role in Mitigating Iran‑War Energy Shortage
What can Canada do to help address the global shortage of oil and gas caused by the war in Iran? #canada🇨🇦 #canada #energy
Trump Claims U.S. Energy Dominance Ends Hormuz Involvement
🔴President Trump talking about Hormuz Strait: “We don’t even need to be there, in that the U.S. has just become the largest producer of energy anywhere in the world.” He also questioned the role of the U.S. in the region: The...
Middle East Oil On
In just two weeks, Middle East Oil on Water has collapsed by 175 Million Barrels. "Truly staggering" - @Rory_Johnston (it's his chart). "It’s impossible to overstate the magnitude of this dislocation." 1/3 https://t.co/iYwEtzNH9E
AUDUSD Net Longs Reach Highest Level Since 2017
Another remarkable change in net-speculative positioning comes from AUDUSD. A further nudge in the net long positioning, pushes futures spec interest to the heaviest long since October 2017. A carry drive as rate forecasts pick up https://t.co/sJ0Xl2KxxD
UK Rates Too Tight; Cutting Interest May Avert Recession
You are not alone. "Monetary conditions in the UK are... appreciably tighter than they were in 2022, and households are under more financial strain. The Bank of England does not have anything like as much room to raise rates as...
Hormuz Blockage Could Push Oil Above $93, Sparking Global Crisis
The market is currently betting that this whole "Hormuz problem" gets cleaned up in the next 30 days. And I’m looking at the data from my office in Abu Dhabi, and so far it’s heading that way. But if that two-mile-wide...
Copper Slump vs Oil Surge Signals Weak Demand
Copper just dropped 4.8% in a single session. LME inventories at highest since 2019. When Dr. Copper rolls over while oil surges, it's telling you something ugly about global demand. https://t.co/qDHoGINfEz
Trump Exits, World Left to Clean His Mess
Trump is bailing out and leaving the rest of the world to clear up his mess.
SoH Closure Slashes GDP, Boosts Oil Prices
Oil price and GDP effects of SoH closure for one, two or three quarters. https://t.co/JOzrf3rVQR
Core Oil Earnings Track Oil Price Fluctuations
Bichler and Nizan’s latest: How the relative earnings of the core oil companies vary with the oil price. Featured in today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/rSQKknEmX7
Oil Prices Surge Amid Fourth Week of Iran Conflict
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude rose in further fits and starts as the Iran War stretches into its 4th week and belligerents escalate to attacks on upstream infrastructure that have already wrought durable supply losses. Summary below, link...
Fed Rate Cut Now Expected in October 2027
That is one looong blue line. A month ago, Fed fund futures were pricing in the next cut as June. This June. Now it's October '27 https://t.co/HCElEgtrLE
Global Yield Spike Persists After Consolidation, No Single Cause
yields - what a week(!) as they appear to be resolving higher after consolidating... it's a global phenomenon... not a U.S. thing, or a Canada thing, or a Europe thing... $TNX $TYX 😜 please don't blame Trump, or the Iran war, or...
7.6% S&P Dip Is Typical, Not Alarming
The S&P 500 is now down 7.6% from its January peak. Is that a lot? Not at all. This is right in line with the median correction off an all-time high since the March 2009 low. We see a decline of this amount...
Embargo Iranian Oil, Not Seize Kharg, to Open Strait
Headlines that the US is thinking about taking Kharg island are pushing up Brent (lhs) and causing stocks to tank (rhs). Taking Kharg doesn't reopen the Strait and could turn into a fiasco. Better to embargo Iranian oil and force...
S&P Drops 5.4% YTD, Losses Concentrated in Two Weeks
Markets have turned. S&P down 5.4% YTD — all of that loss in the last two weeks. War premium showing up fast. Watch this space. https://t.co/D3wvQr7z9M
Business Cycles Repeat, Even when We Think Otherwise
Business cycles have a way of repeating themselves, despite many feeling like this time is different. https://t.co/BhO6huMktT
Gas Prices Outpace 2022; Long‑term Real Rates Rise
3w into conflict, gas prices on higher trajectory than in 2022 (Ukraine invasion). WTI 1M/6M spread off peak inversion, so are implied vols for WTI. 2YR inflation expectations on similar trajectory as 2022. LT inflation exp not reacting much...
Markets Flip to Rate Hikes as US Inflation Spikes
Yup. Market pricing in 2-3 rate hikes for ECB and BoE How many for the Fed?!
Extreme Debt Limits Growth: Only One Indicator Can Rise
When government and private debt are this extreme, only one of these lines can rise. …... not the red one. https://t.co/YjKShRTMiy https://t.co/mOHRjorVpT
Iran War Drives Market
Due to the war in Iran and the resulting inflationary effects, the market is now pricing in zero rate cuts from the Fed this year (in contrast to the previously forecast two rate cuts). Moreover, the market is now forecasting a...
Markets See Fed Hikes, Hormuz Shock Fuels Inflation Risk
Mkts expect a Fed hiking bias, instead of cuts. 10yr Treasury yields up even more today (4.38%) With long-term interest rates rising, the Hormuz shock is getting priced as more of an inflation shock than one that triggers recession (caveat: mkts aren't...
Fed Cuts Spark Long‑term Rate Divergence, Now at 5%
When the Fed cutting cycle started in 2024, 20Y rates quickly moved to 4%. And after 175bp of cuts, the 30Y rates is back up to 5%. The latest wiggle is obviously the Iran effect. But the divergence is arguably 2 years...
Bitcoin Serves as Inflation Check, Bolstering Dollar Dominance
Bitcoin is a check and balance on inflation. When spending gets too far out of hand, capital moves to Bitcoin. Competition benefits customers, and this applies even in the market for money. In this way, Bitcoin will help preserve dollar dominance.
Falling Oil Demand May Trigger Higher Future Prices
Is it reasonable to say that a long-term, structural decline in global oil demand would not necessarily translate into lower prices, and could plausibly turn into significantly higher prices in the future?
SPX Faces Crucial Demand Zone Amid Rapid Macro Shift
US500 ( SPX ) At a crucial daily demand area. We have not seen these levels since late 2025. - Stagflation environment - Elevated OIL - From rate cuts to rate hikes - AI valuation concerns The whole macro narrative has changed within days. I...
US Bond Yields Surge to Highest Levels Since 2023
Bloomberg on the selloff in the US bond market: “Not since 2023, when the central bank was still lifting rates, has the two-year yield risen so much above the Fed’s rate ceiling. On Friday, five-year yields surpassed 4% for the first...
Trump's Iran War Costs Outpace Tariff Revenue
Putting the fiscal cost of the Iran war in context. $200 billion > $194.9 billion, which means that Trump is planning on spending more on the Iran war than he took in with his tariffs which raised tons of revenue....
Economic Pathways Already Narrow Before War, Shortages
For anyone following the GPT policy prescriptions I updated the macro with war, supply shortages and 200B in new spend. Nothing surprising here but I'd note that the pathways were already narrow 3+ months ago. https://t.co/bSw5ZWEnsD