Recession Odds Surge, Crowd and Banks Align Signals
Polymarket recession odds jumped from 23% to 35%. That's real money moving in a prediction market. Not a survey. Not a pundit. People betting their own capital. Goldman: 30%. JPMorgan: 35%. Zandi: 49%. The crowd and the institutions are converging on the same signal. We appear to be in stage two of a four-stage sentiment shift. Stage four is full repricing. The market hasn't started that yet. The gap is closing fast. markets
Treasury Data Shows U.S. Government Insolvent in FY2025
My take in @asiatimesonline on US debt: “The US gov't is insolvent. That’s not hyperbole — it’s the conclusion drawn directly from the Treasury Department’s own consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025, which was released last week to near-total media silence.”...
Houthis Threaten Bab El-Mandeb Closure, Endangering Global Food Supply
Yemeni Houthis has entered the Iran War, they are now considering closing Bab El Mandeb Strait. It is estimated that 12% of the world's trade passes through here. The FAO chief economist has already warned of potential global risks to...
Rising 10‑Year Yields and Oil Prices Highlight Def
Yes, indeed. 10-year yields are higher. Oil is materially higher. On the deficits side: I’m old enough to remember DOGE… https://t.co/9uWJASUd8q https://t.co/K8XMoJFshw
Iran War Undermines Canada's 500% LNG Expansion Goal
Iran War Destroys Canada's LNG Assumptions Mark Carney, David Eby's goal of growing LNG production by 500% is likely dead in the water. #cdnpoli #bcpoli #cdnpoli https://markhamhislop.substack.com/p/iran-war-destroys-canadas-lng-assumptions
Closing Hormuz: Strategic Disruption, Not Just Conflict
They were always going to close the Strait of Hormuz. This was never a side development. It was central to the strategy. Because the objective isn’t just confrontation — it’s disruption: energy flows, shipping routes, and the systems that rely on them. That changes the...
Iraq's Missing Inflation Data Highlights US Regime‑Change Failure
Iraq hasn't officially released inflation data since December 2025. After the US regime change that took out Saddam Hussein, Iraq can’t even produce basic economic statistics in a timely manner. IRAQ = ANOTHER FAILED US REGIME CHANGE. https://t.co/X9ngvVUhvq
Forced Energy Shift Threatens Economic Collapse, Not Green Growth
Jeff currie says we're going to get the energy transition forced on us painfully This isn’t a shift to renewables. It's a shift to a painful economic contraction Less energy High prices Shortages No growth Economic collapse is one way to get to net zero https://t.co/BBsew8QVwP
Four Years of Credit Stress Preceded 2008 Recession
We had 4 years of credit stress built up before the 2008 recession with an oil shock back then https://t.co/OjLbnx5L9R
India’s Growth Holds, Nifty Upside Limited – Favor Quality Stocks
Macro: India’s growth intact; NIFTY shows limited near‑term upside. Drivers: rich valuations, slowing earnings, FII outflows. Risks: higher oil, tighter global liquidity. Trade: trim cyclicals; buy quality domestics. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Oil Hits $99 Amid Tensions; Economy’s Resilience Tested
Oil spiked above $99 as Middle East tensions escalate. This week's jobs and confidence data will show if the economy can handle the shock or if cracks are starting to emerge. 🟢 Open https://t.co/muP4Yrt2q1
Turkey Sells Billions in Gold to Prop Lira
Turkey is selling gold to support the lira. Over the past two weeks, the central bank has sold around 58 tons (~$8 billion). At the same time, since 2020, Turkey has been among the top three gold buyers (alongside China and Poland)....
Europe’s Gas Prices Double US Levels Post‑Hormuz
Before the Battle for Hormuz, Europeans were paying about 3x more for nat gas than US consumers. Today, they are paying about 6x. Europe has to drill. Chart below is from my latest piece. https://t.co/pfIpV5UZy3
Rising Oil Prices Hurt Importers, Boost U.S. Exporter
"More expensive oil is bad for Europe, Japan and Korea, all big importers. It is actually a net benefit to the U.S., as an exporter and the world’s biggest producer." — The Wall Street Journal Russia and the Middle East also benefit.
Unemployment Rate Drives 10‑2 Yield Curve Movements
The most correlated macro data that explains the 10-2 yield curve is the unemployment rate. Why? The short end drives most of the movements in the curve, and employment heavily influences the short end via Fed policy. This relationship goes...
On‑chain Payments Thrive Where Traditional Cross‑border Systems Stall
If there is one takeaway from whats happening geopolitically right now, its that cross-border payments were built for a stable world and we don't live in one right now. Settlement still runs through corridors and intermediaries that seize up the moment...
Retaliation on Gulf Energy Could Trigger Global Depression
If Israel/US attack Iranian oil fields and power plants, they are not going to sit back...they'll attack oil fields, desalinisation plants and power assets in the Gulf. Then, we'll get an economic depression.
UK's Security Pivot Raises Trade Questions, Trump Watch
UK move away from US for security. Would this also affect trade? What would Trump do?
Iran War Risk Unpriced, Expect Deeper Market Pullback
As warned: Iran Risk Is Not Priced In A frank talk with @RealJohnGaltFla of @MacroEdgeRes predicting a deeper pullback driven by Trump-Netanyahu's War on Iran that causes higher oil & yields AND capital leaving risk assets. Inflation & recession not...
2026 Gold and Crude Face Pump‑Then‑Dump Risk
2026 Pump-Then-Dump Risks in Both Gold and Crude - Gold's big green 2026 annual candle to its Jan. 29 high of $5,595 an ounce risks turning red by year-end -- particularly if the Strait of Hormuz is secured -- with...
US Food and Energy Self‑sufficiency Is an Illusion
US is "self-sufficient in food & energy"... ...but US food & energy supply chains are now HIGHLY centralized, fragile, & long (& usually stretch back to China.) "US is self-sufficient in food & energy" is like the man who drowned in a...
100k Troops in Iran Signal Prolonged War, Inflation Surge
The ‘100k troops on land in Iran’ is the new risk narratives for prolonged war and confirmation of escalation of inflation which would lead in global rate hikes again. Rumble in the Jungle is here…
Two Conflicting Trade Definitions Fuel E‑Commerce Confusion
Confused about all the e-commerce news? There might be a good reason for it. There are two co-existing definitions of “e-commerce” in trade policy. They refer to fundamentally different things. Both are very hot topics at the moment. /1
Markets Must Price In Prolonged Iran‑US Conflict
Iran's 5 demands include sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. That's a non-starter. Trump extended the deadline 10 more days. Iran rejected the 15-point ceasefire plan. Markets need to price in a LONG conflict. Not a headline. A regime. $XLE $USO https://t.co/WWkv5lwoiG
Ground Forces Needed as Trump’s Air Plan Fails
trump can’t reopen the strait of hormuz with an air campaign. and the iranians aren’t going to accept that outcome willingly. ground troops are coming.
Weekly Wrap: Oil Shock, Credit Panic, Century-Long Rate Insights
For our weekly wrap, @CultishCreative and I cover all ends of the spectrum. We've got Bob Elliott on the oil shock We've got Larry Swedroe on why private credit panic may be overblown And we've got the 100 Year Thinkers of...
Iran's Inflation Drops, Oil Exports Surge Amid War
My latest with @davidlin_TV on Iran: "Since the war started, Iran's inflation has come down from 87% to 67%. Iranian oil exports have increased substantially at higher prices with lower discounts. You won't read these FACTS in the press." https://t.co/tnO36Tw8XU
Inflation Fears Undermine Bonds' Traditional Safe‑Haven Appeal
"bonds—often a place of safety in times of market turmoil—have offered no relief, hit by worries that resurgent inflation will keep interest rates higher than expected and undermine the value of their fixed payouts." https://t.co/acyJLqVIXP https://t.co/7yOQbeNrn2
China Blames Philippines, Yet Urges Ties Stabilization
China Urges Philippines To Stabilize Ties Amid Maritime Row. China causes the problem. Then asks the Philippines to improve the situation. https://t.co/hyHl0iwvov
Dollar Weaponization Reshapes Finance, Gold, and Investment Flows
The “weaponization of the dollar” has profound implications for financial plumbing, the dollar itself, and investment flows—including gold. @edwardfishman’s Chokepoints is a must-read on history/key players/dynamics. Thanks @nfergus for the recommendation. https://t.co/4AcmzUniud
UAE’s Closure Drives Iran Toward Chinese Banking
The faster UAE closes money window on Iran, quicker China becomes Iran's banker. 1)China pays for Iranian oil into Chnse bank accts2) Iran buys gold w CNY in Shanghai's CNY gold mkt & do what Russia did w China after...
Australia's LNG Outage Slashes Exports, Leaves Market Bufferless
Australia LNG offline for weeks. Half its exports hit. This market has no buffer left. https://t.co/wV9mseaJW8 #LNG #EnergyCrisis #Oil #Geopolitics
Economic Weakness Erodes U.S. Military Superiority
Bit of a deep dive with a handsome economist (me) on how America's economic vulnerability undermines its military advantage. https://t.co/WZQ5ou95bM
Trump Dismisses Intel, Claims Iran Rockets Depleted
While Trump says that Iran has “very few rockets left”, US intel suggests that only 1/3 of Iran’s missile arsenal is confirmed to be destroyed. Who says Trump is inconsistent? He consistently ignores US intelligence. https://t.co/7whRgOX8kz
Japan Redirects Naphtha Imports Amid Middle East Reliance
Japan is switching naphtha imports from the Middle East to other countries, says Prime Minister Takaichi 🇯🇵 ⛽️ Japan relies on the Mid East for >70% of naphtha imports, and has 20 days of stockpiles Shortages threaten supply of petrochemicals, plastics,...
NEOM: Saudi’s Green Steel Powerhouse Driving Future Industry
I think a lot of people overlook that NEOM is as much a strategic play on future green steel production as it is a weird futuristic city. Also, Saudi is via the project positioning itself to be - in the...
One‑Year Inflation Swaps Hover Near 3%, No Panic
No major inflation scare yet... 1yr inflation swap only about 3%.. not alarming by historical trends Torsten at Apollo https://t.co/YfD4ihEjtb
Bond Market Squeezes Yield Expectations, Proves Wrong
2Y yield: 3.89%. 5Y yield: crossed 4%. Everyone was positioned for rate cuts. Everyone was wrong. Bloomberg calls it the biggest positioning squeeze in years. The bond market just delivered a reality check. $TLT $IEF https://t.co/jyYH8ebPrR
Oil Upside Limited Even With Iranian Embargo, Brent at $115
I'm starting a new weekly video every Saturday morning on markets and macro. The first episode was yesterday. I discussed why upside to oil is limited even if we embargo Iranian oil. Brent at $115 already prices significant disruption. You...
Subtract 300k Bpd From 2026 Oil Demand Forecasts
⭕️For now, whatever your estimates of global oil consumption growth for 2026, subtract about 300 kb/d from it. This number will change as we move forward.
Embargo Iranian Oil; Cut Funding to War‑fueling Regimes
I support an embargo of Iranian oil. The reason is Russia. We never embargoed Russia. If we had, there's a good chance it wouldn't still be wreaking havoc in Ukraine. You just can't allow the life blood of these regimes...
Oil Surge and Strong USD Favor Energy Exporters
Macro: Tadawul -0.13%; financials, real estate & retail lag. Oil jump (Brent $105) and firmer USD drive divergence. Risk: oil volatility, FX swings. Trade: buy energy exporters. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Hormuz Crisis Exposes Superpower Indifference to Global Lives
The international fallout from the Hormuz crisis and its unintended consequences have me wondering: Is this another global experiment? And if it is, do we have to wait until all the results are collected? I am just asking a question. ...
Dollar Weakness Paused; Brazil Set to Surge Post‑war
The Dollar downtrend has now been meaningfully disrupted. But that doesn't mean it's over. As soon as this war ends - and it must because of the midterms - Dollar weakness will reassert itself. EM commodity exporters like Brazil will...
Personal Services Spending Fuels 3.3% Inflation, Outpacing Fed Target
Robust consumer spending on manicures, haircuts, and dog daycare is FORCING services inflation to 3.3%/yr. That's stubbornly above the Fed's 2%/yr target. THE US WILL NEVER GET THE INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/YhMhZTG7Gl
Yield Spread Peaks, Prompting Duration Risk Exit
3m10y yield spread 71bps... highest since July 2022... time to step out on the duration-risk curve? $AGG https://t.co/ozSwbxzLA4
Saudi Oil Revenues Rise, No Gold‑selling Crisis
There's lots of misinformation at the moment, including the idea that big Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia are having to sell gold. Saudi Arabia's revenues from oil exports are actually up, because the rise in oil prices more than offsets...
Today's Chartbook Highlights Crucial Map for Immediate Insight
Hard to think of a more important map than this right now, featured on today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/qA2ezld5Aa
Stagflation and War Trigger Biggest 60/40 Loss Since 2022
Stagflationary winds and the biggest monthly loss for the classic 60/40 investment portfolio since 2022, the global economic and financial fallout of the Middle East War are tangible. This week’s data deluge will help us assess how much resilience remains in...
Turkey Alone Sells Gold Amid Fragile Currency Peg
A recurrent theme since war began is that central banks are selling gold. That's mostly not true, but there is one central bank that did. Turkey's gold holdings have fallen 50 tons in recent weeks. But Turkey is an outlier...