China’s Subsidies Surged Post‑Made in China 2025, Trade War
Industrial subsidies in China have increased dramatically. Notably, there was a sharp acceleration in subsidy levels following the launch of the “Made in China 2025” programme in 2015 and the onset of the US–China trade war in 2018. https://t.co/eFhIfiECI4
EU Labour Shortages Fall, Unemployment Stays Steady
After peaking in 2022, labour shortages across the EU are back at their pre-pandemic levels and on a declining path. Vacancy rates have fallen markedly. Yet, this easing of the labour market has not translated into higher unemployment. https://t.co/cARZL9kIyG
Rate Hikes Shrink Cash, Cuts Boost Household Spending
Research finds that rate increases lead to lower cash-on-hand and lower household spending, whereas spending rises following rate cuts. https://t.co/bDbE1CT1AB
Middle East Conflict Fuels Oil Surge, Exposing Europe’s Fragility
Energy shock exposes Europe’s vulnerability as oil prices surge Linda Yueh explains how Middle East conflict is driving oil volatility and heightening risks https://t.co/j96NMGNF8A
War Risks Renew Bond Market Crises Across Europe
The last time we had a supply shock and oil prices rose - in 2022 - Italy and Spain got the ECB to cap their yields to survive and the UK bond market blew up in the LDI crisis. If...
Rubio's War Timeline Claim Ignored: No Set Schedule
Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed that the US would have this war finished up soon: “As the Department of War has consistently outlined, we are ahead of schedule. We expect it concluded… in a matter of weeks.” THAT'S BECAUSE THERE IS...
Liquidity Decline Puts Market Volatility to New Test
My video for the week ahead: Market Volatility Faces New Test as Liquidity Drops and Data Builds (recorded before Friday's US tumble so even more relevant) https://t.co/fPTls4gx6p
Russia’s Oil Earnings Surge Amid US‑Israel Iran Conflict
Russia’s oil revenue this month hit a 4-year HIGH. RUSSIA = THE BIG WINNER OF THE TRUMP-NETANYAHU WAR ON IRAN. https://t.co/nMT8IvrNZc
Quarter of Global LNG Supply Offline After Attacks, Cyclone
And just like that, a quarter of global LNG supply is offline 🚢 ⚠️ Hormuz/Iran attacks have disrupted deliveries from Qatar and UAE Cyclone temporarily knocks out plants in Western Australia (Nice graphic from IEA’s Greg Molnar) https://t.co/ymJmTrTZGx
Israel-Iran Strike Threatens Global Supply Chain Stability
Israel’s attack on Iran while there were attempts at “peace” negotiations may have compounded the supply chain and maritime problems that are bordering on supply and economic catastrophe. IMHO
Consumer Sentiment Hits Dec‑2025 Low Amid Gas, Market Turmoil
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu ”Consumer sentiment fell back 6% this month to its lowest level since December 2025. Declines were seen across age and political party. Consumers with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth, buffeted by both escalating...
Qatar's Largest LNG Plant Offline, Losing 1.5 Mt Weekly
Reminder that the world’s biggest LNG plant in Qatar — which is currently offline — has no alternative route to get the gas to market It is stuck. And every week it’s offline, the world loses 1.5 million tons of LNG
RBI Caps Banks' USD Exposure at $100 Million
RBI has directed banks to reduce their holdings of Dollar (USD) positions. • RBI has set a maximum Net Open Position (NOP) limit of $100 million for banks. • This means banks can now hold no more than $100 million...
Short‑term Yields Drop, Long‑term Rise; Gold Steadies
What was equally intriguing in Friday’s trading was the unhinging of the short end of the curve from the long end. The 2-yr yield fell by 7.4 bps to 3.91% while that of the benchmark 10-yr rose by 1.6 bps to...
Energy Crisis Deepens Strain on Emerging Economies
Wonderful to catch up with @RaniaAlMashat in NYC to talk about the latest in today’s energy crisis, and particularly the painful ripple effects for emerging and developing economies. https://t.co/2BIKAy4nXD
US/EU Push Permanent E‑commerce Exemption, Threatening Developing Nations
WTO e‑commerce moratorium may lapse: US/EU seek permanent exemption; some developing states oppose losing tariff revenue. Risk: higher digital trade costs, fragmentation. Trade: overweight big tech. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Higher Oil Fuels Dollar, Yields; Stocks
“complete loss of confidence” = USD crashes with stocks with bonds. My MONEY GOES HOME™️ warning. A slower crash is what we have now: Higher Oil -> Higher Dollar, Yields, USDJPY -< Lower Equities & Bonds
Houthis Threaten Bab Al-Mandeb, Risking Saudi Pipeline Bypass
The Houthis of Yemen have entered the war, claiming the launch of a ballistic missile against Israel. The more important aspect of their involvement is whether they try to disrupt traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, effectively jeopardising Saudi efforts...
Saudi East-West Pipeline Hits Full 7 Million‑Barrel Capacity
Very early on the war I wrote about SaudiArabia’s crucial East-West oil pipeline (see 👇). Now, the conduit has reached its nameplate capacity of 7 million b/d, wit exports from the Saudi Red Sea coast to global markets >5 million...
Mining Metal Supply Crisis Needs More Than Prices
I’m sure higher energy prices, higher interest rates, and ongoing wars will go a long way in solving the problem of getting mines to produce the metals we desperately need. The world still underestimates the scale of the problem: A lack of...
Asset Supply Surges, Credit Stagnates Amid Wage Stagnation
Note sent to clients. Overall macro synthesis and update based on war related conditions impact and pricing. What we are doing about it is for clients only. Based on all things happening in the world my macro view is...
Dissecting Iran War, Oil Shock: Macro, Narrative, Flow Insights
However you want to analyze the Iran war and oil shock, @CultishCreative and I have it covered on the latest Last Call on @excessreturnpod. @dampedspring on macro @EpsilonTheory on narrative @spotgamma on flows @ericpachman on what the jobs data misses https://t.co/bbX3cSwFWe
US Financial Markets Expose Vulnerability in Global Conflicts
The US' Achilles heel in this conflict - much as in the tariff confrontation with China a year ago - is financial markets. Those are flashing red as uncertainty mounts. We have lots of skeletons in the closet in private...
Windsor Slump Warns of USMCA Risk, Trim Canada Auto Exposure
Macro: Windsor's slump signals USMCA uncertainty. Key: tariff threats, cross‑border exposure, falling orders. Risk: demand pullback. Trade insight: trim Canada auto-supply positions. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Weekend Podcast Breaks Down Iran War's Economic Impact
What better way to begin the weekend with a podcast exploring -- hopefully in plain English -- the economic consequences of the war with Iran. https://t.co/e6xz6fn92u
Rising Nominal Rates, Falling Real Rates Boost Gold
Many are attributing the fall in precious metals to rising real interest rates. That's wrong. Real rates (red) have fallen. The rise in nominal interest rates (black) is all about break-even inflation (blue) rising. That's fundamentally good for gold... https://t.co/5amZtGPz0B https://t.co/t11fMQc7JV
War Spikes Oil, Gold Falls, Bonds Surge Globally
Many things are happening simultaneously. War in the Middle East is spiking oil prices, gold has fallen and all the uncertainty is pushing up long bond yields, like in Japan where they're back to the highs. I'll talk about all...
Gulf Tensions Trigger Maersk Outage, Freight Volatility Surge
Gulf tensions rise, hitting flows. Maersk halted Salalah after crane damage; 48h outage. Risk: supply delays, Strait Hormuz disruption. Trade: hedge shipping via freight volatility. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Iran Conflict Turns Global Economy Into Battlefield
John Keegan’s 'The Face of Battle' is a masterpiece of war literature. He moves from Agincourt to Waterloo, then the Somme, showing the shift from a small hand-to hand battlefield to a larger area defined by the range of cannon...
War Risks Clash with Aggressive Central Bank Pricing
New monthly drops. https://t.co/FItBCcQzTd Trade wars, kinetic wars, and anticipated policy responses ripple through the capital markets. Optimism of short war contrasts with pricing in aggressive CB policy. https://t.co/qPeHeyxa7a
Middle East War Threatens Europe's Economy and Global Standing
I joined Zanny Minton Beddoes on @TheEconomist’s Insider show for a conversation on the impact of the war in the Middle East on Europe and its economy, and the key challenges Europe faces in today’s fast-moving global environment. Watch an excerpt...
US LNG in High Demand After Qatar Plant Shutdown
Many such cases 🇺🇸 🚢 Asian and European LNG buyers are chasing the limited number of shipments still available from US suppliers after the world’s largest export plant in Qatar was shut Importers from Japan and Germany are among those in...
Houthis Threaten Cape Route, Exacerbating Energy Shortages
With Houthis entering the war, Cape of Good Hope may soon be the Cape of Only Hope. Countries already facing physical energy shortages are staring at even longer transport schedules, and higher costs. Some useful background from 2024 here: https://t.co/K1abD0tYoN.
BOE Rate Hikes Could Push UK Inflation Below 2%
UK inflation could undershoot its 2% target if the BOE raises rates as much as financial markets currently expect, according to a Barclays analysis based on forecasting assumptions used by the central bank https://t.co/vOjS0R1gt1 via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/FRWivDYG3b
Xi's Push for Intensive Growth Faces Execution Hurdles
Good Damien Ma piece on Xi Jinping's efforts to shift the Chinese economy from extensive growth (generate growth by increasing labor, capital and resource inputs) to intensive growth (generate growth by using labor, capital and resource inputs more efficiently). For...
China Opens Nickel, Lithium Futures to Foreign Investors
China will open nickel and lithium futures to foreign investors, aiming to strengthen global metals pricing power. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/china-nickel-and-lithium-futures.html
China’s 90% Model Redefines Global Supply Chains
@KirkusReviews , 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰 𝐦𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐳𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 1933, 𝐰𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚’𝐬 90% 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥. Kirkus describes the book as “𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐮𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚’𝐬 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤.” The review highlights how China has built industrial capacity to meet 90%...
Turkey Leverages Gold Reserves for Liquidity, Defends Lira
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: It's hard to beat gold as a central bank reserve. Turkey is reportedly using its HOARD of gold reserves in swap operations to obtain liquidity and defend the Turkish Lira. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/rVUGXc6WeD
Japanese Investment in India Hits Record $8.8 B
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Japanese investment in India’s financial sector has hit a RECORD HIGH. In 2025, Japanese firms invested $8.8 BILLION in Indian businesses. That’s FOUR TIMES the amount invested in 2024. GOOD NEWS FOR INDIA. MORE FDI = MORE GROWTH. https://t.co/C27VI2pF62
Thailand Secures Safe Strait of Hormuz Passage for Tankers
Thailand has reached a deal with Iran to allow Thai tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. “An agreement has been reached to allow Thai oil tankers to transit safely through the Strait of Hormuz," Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said...
No Alternatives Exist: Oil Remains Unavoidable Reality
Hormuz oil "We don't have any alternatives at all, and we should not talk about alternatives," says @asasalhajii Any questions? No. Now, what should we talk about? #Oil #Energy #Reality #Geopolitics
Trump Tariffs Shrink Chinese Imports, Widen U.S. Trade Deficit
How Trump’s Tariffs Are Choking U.S.-China Trade—Chinese share of American imports drops to lowest level since 2001, but overall U.S. goods trade deficit rises @hannahmiao_ @CloudberryRoque https://t.co/tWBXJwnAkx https://t.co/tWBXJwnAkx
Oil Price Ignores Geopolitics, 20% Supply Unchanged
No military operation or policy can replace 20% of global oil supply At some point, price stops listening to narratives, says @JasonBordoff End of discussion #Oil #EnergyMarkets #Hormuz #Geopolitics
China's 15th Plan Signals End of Expansion Era
Many have given great interpretations of China's 15th five year plan. My read is a little different: "For one, lower growth targets will likely be a norm rather than a surprise. Moreover, it implies China is likely at the beginning of...
Markets Tumble as Fed Hike Odds Surge to 52%
The Dow just entered correction territory. Down 10% from its peak, joining the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 posted its fifth straight losing week — longest since 2022. Oil blew through $100. Futures traders now price a 52% chance the Fed...
Geopolitical Oil Shock Sends Crypto Prices Tumbling
🚨 CRYPTO DAILY — MARCH 27, 2026 The oil safety valve just broke. Iran closed Hormuz. Trump lifted Russian sanctions to fill the gap. Then Ukraine drone-struck Russian oil ports, knocking out 40% of Baltic export capacity. Brent hit $110. The...
War Boosts Russia, Iran, Texas Oil; U.S. Stumbles
It looks like the war's winners so far are Russia, Iran and Texas oil & gas exporters... Russia benefits from high prices, waived sanctions, and a distracted world. Iran benefits from high prices, waived sanctions, and the realization (by them and...
Oil Crises Predate Wars; 2026 Hormuz ≠ Ukraine Invasion
For thought leaders.. ♦️No one should compare the current 2026 Hormuz Crisis to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. These are apples and "orange bulldozers"! ♦️I challenge anyone to prove that the spectacular rise in oil prices in 2022 was...
Brent to Rise $10‑15 Post‑Hormuz, If No Recession
♦️It’s important to remember where we stood in early February compared to now. ♦️Here’s why: 🔹Before the Hormuz crisis, the expectation was for Brent crude to remain range-bound in the $60s, with only occasional spikes. 🔹Once the dust settles — a couple...
Trump Postpones Iran Strike; Hormuz Tension Rattles Oil Markets
Trump delays Iran attacks to 6 April, but Strait of Hormuz risk keeps oil and supply chains on edge. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/trump-delays-iran-attacks-as-strait-of.html