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Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
CBO is mostly dismissive of the effects of AI on productivity growth (overly so IMHO). They expect *slowing* potential labor force productivity as the modest AI boost to TFP is swamped by the reduction in capital services. I would take the over on their 1.8% LR GDP forecast.
US household debt just hit $18.8 TRILLION. Consumer delinquencies are at their HIGHEST LEVEL in nearly a DECADE. Not a good sign. https://t.co/PHcOGrhvOc
The labor market showed signs of healing late in 2025 and in January. Catch up following long government shutdown helps alleviate ranks of those suffering temporary layoffs and forced to accept part instead of full-time jobs. Some healthy churn returned...
🚨 From Agent-1 to Superintelligence: The AI 2027 Scenario The AI 2027 Report outlines one of the most thought-provoking trajectories for artificial intelligence: a rapid evolution from simple assistants (Agent-1) to autonomous, adversarially misaligned systems (Agent-4) and ultimately to Agent-5...
On the surface a strong jobs report (130K jobs & unemployment falls to 4.3%). And just about every detail makes that stronger: participation up, involuntary part-time down, hours up, wages up. The mystery of strong GDP and weak jobs is being resolved...
The changes in the US over the last decade — rising inequality, massive deficits, and a shifting global outlook — are not isolated events. They are all interconnected and part of a dynamic that has occurred many times before for...
Trump says lower rates would save "at least one trillion dollars per year." The federal government's entire annual net interest bill was $970 billion in fiscal 2025—and much of that is locked in at rates on previously issued debt that...
#NFPs beat expectations by the most in 10 months - a 130K vs 40K expected. That said, revisions aggregated through 2025 have lowered the year's total by over 1 million https://t.co/p1pkqEWC57
Analytically, the January U.S. jobs report supports competing views. The market reaction, however, was clear: traders have sharply dialed back expectations for a June rate cut. The big beat on January job creation, paired with a dip in the unemployment rate...
My menchies show a lotta distrust about the official jobs numbers right now. Lemme be clear: I don't believe there's *any* political meddling in these numbers. While the President has tried to mess with the BLS, he failed. I explain in...
Every year the BLS does a benchmark revision which incorporates new and more detailed information. This year's revision suggests that 2025 was a far worse year than earlier estimates suggested, and total job growth was less than half that suggested...
The earnings boom has gone global, with estimates in both EAFE and EM showing good momentum. The blue squiggles show estimates for the S&P 500 and the pink ones are for the MSCI EAFE index. The days of significant divergences...
First positive manufacturing payrolls in a very long time, private payrolls surging, UR down. The economy is re-accelerating https://t.co/sbUBFBA4SA
Tepid response of the Dollar to a big upside surprise in payrolls. The whisper number for consensus was weak, so this was a solid beat, yet USD is barely able to rise. We're on our way to the correlation switch...
Two major coal developments in the last 24 hours. 1. White House announcing purchases and support to revive the industry 2. Indonesia just ordered the world's largest nickel mine to sharply cut output. They are also looking to cut coal production by...
The U.S. job market is very unbalanced right now. One sector more than accounts for all jobs growth over the past year. The rest of the economy is shedding jobs. https://t.co/EGsnQj04uA
#NKWatch🇰🇵: Today, I measure North Korea’s inflation at 74.6%/yr. This makes North Korea the WORLD'S THIRD-HIGHEST INFLATOR. SUPREME LEADER KIM JONG UN = KILLING NORTH KOREA'S ECONOMY. https://t.co/iTKJhtxWvr
This formidable earnings growth has allowed valuations to take a back seat for a change. While the 5-year CAPE ratio is up there at 32x, the n12m P/E multiple doesn’t seem too onerous at 22x, considering not only the earnings...
Jan jobs data better than expected and benchmark revision more or less in line. Unemployment rate ticks lower. $USD jump sold into quickly. Mkt still pricing in around two cuts this year.
NFP BREAKDOWN : Unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% while headline number crushed the expectations. In simple words , this was a much solid NFP all across the board. FED pause will continue. Profit taking in Gold , SPX , NASDAQ on reduced rate cut...
Payrolls rose a very healthy +130k in January, and unemployment fell a tick to 4.3 percent. Revisions subtracted -17k from the past two months, so not much there. This is the healthiest jobs report we've seen in a while. Keep your fingers...
Glad to welcome @BIS_org General Manager Pablo Hernández de Cos back to the @ecb today. We had a good discussion on the latest economic developments. https://t.co/NiOrDgbMRV
#CubaWatch 🇨🇺: Thanks to Trump’s blockade, Cuba can no longer supply jet fuel to international airlines. Stay tuned. https://t.co/I5GxUM3wGq
“I think Greenland was a wake-up call. There is more talk [in Brussels] about replacing one dependency with another.” This is what I told the Wall Street Journal about Europe’s increasing dependence on US LNG following the end of Russian...
$USD is soft ahead of the delayed jobs report. Japanese markets were closed for a national holiday, but the dramatic short squeeze of $JPY continued. WTI is up ~2% as the US-Iran confrontation seems near a climax. ...
A new report shows that global electricity demand will increase at an average annual rate of 3.6% between 2026 and 2030. Emerging economies will account for nearly 80% of additional electricity consumption through 2030. More here: https://t.co/ZtTGSlWOMx https://t.co/dw82OPRKGw
https://t.co/k2T7oPbMh8 In an interview with CNBC on Monday (February 9, 2026), Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, advised markets to expect "slightly smaller job numbers" in the coming months. These remarks, have led many to speculate that the January...
Good morning and welcome to Jobs Report Day in the US. The consensus forecasts are for a monthly employment gain of 65,000, an unemployment rate of 4.4%, and a 3.7% annual increase in average hourly earnings. As we head into this release,...
India’s government is considering raising the foreign direct investment (FDI) cap for banks from 20% to 49%. SMART MOVE. MORE FDI = MORE BANK CAPITAL = MORE LENDING CAPACITY https://t.co/agaPK9vbzO
Nigeria’s inflation rate is DOUBLE NGA’s inflation target at 15.29%/yr. Nigeria’s money supply is growing at 15.19%/yr, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~11.83%-14.83%/yr, a rate consistent with Nigeria’s 6%-9%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/367h7H4ytf
Will stock markets find enough to like in US jobs data? It’s all about Fed interest rate cut expectations. #Jobs #NFP #StockMarket #Dollar #Fed #Macro #Trading https://t.co/UBCpyuHxhZ
SCOOP: Detroit Billionaire Owner of Ambassador Bridge Lobbied Administration, Met With Howard Lutnick Monday, Hours Before Trump Lambasted New Detroit-Michigan Gordie Howe Bridge w/ @tylerpager #cdnpoli https://t.co/A1JpN7GgU0
A dirty little secret that the Russiaphobes in London keep under the rug: RUSSIA’S ECONOMY IS OUTPACING THE UK’S. SANCTIONS = BACKFIRE = RARELY WORK. https://t.co/FLcUb0QXGw
Distinguished Columbia Univ. Professor Jeff Sachs on Venezuela: “The will to run Venezuela other than maybe in Marco Rubio's and Donald Trump's head is zero in the United States… a year from now, Venezuela is a forgotten issue in the United...
OUT NOW - @BergMilton on: - clear sign of "climax top" in gold & silver - why he expects a precious metals bear market - S&P 500, Bitcoin, Software + Korean stocks & more Apple🔊https://t.co/bNqmCOVqMV Spotify📽️https://t.co/mnN6Dn02hi 1/3 https://t.co/U3F0Pxojhy
I'm trying something new: Video essays exploring recent economic developments. There's... a lot to talk about these days. Here's the first one: Thoughts on Trump, the BLS, and the new BLS Commissioner. Spoiler: This is a good news story. https://t.co/M4NltoNXJR
The 'sell America' trade pressure seems to be picking up again. The SPX-VEU (rest of world equity ETF) ratio is the lowest since April 22nd. A little further and it is a two year low. Adding the DXY Dollar Index in for...
"So what does the job market data say to you?" "It says that we're underperforming right now... The thing that matters most to people's lives is the unemployment rate. Can you find work? And that was as low as...
The headlines from the UAE always scream “Hot Growth.” But when compared to its arch-rival, Saudi Arabia, the UAE looks dreadful. Since 2008, the UAE’s GDP per capita shrank while the Kingdom’s grew modestly. https://t.co/aXuH6QU5nj
About 65% of $SPGI's (down >20% over past month) pre-tax earnings come from ratings & indices. The potential challenge that AI poses to S&P's analytics/consulting/intel business is something I get. But I don't understand AI's bear case for ratings & indices,...
Mexico’s inflation rate is ON TARGET at 3.65%/yr Mexico’s money supply (M4) is growing at 7.91%/yr, WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~7.3%-9.3%/yr, a rate consistent with Mexico’s 2%-4%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/4w05Yr94Mz
I keep playing through the potential outcomes over the coming months and I have a very difficult time painting a bull case for the dollar. I expect: 1. Monetary policy divergence widens (more dovish US vs RoW/Japan) 2. Capital flight risk as...
Bad retail sales, falling wage growth and now Hassett and Navarro comments implying bad NFP tomorrow...
"The US stock market, while it looks strong, is actually much weaker than almost any other industrialized country.... So while we're doing well… everyone else is doing even better." https://t.co/7KavXe5LXh
Greenback Consolidates after Yesterday's Shellacking: After yesterday’s sharp losses, the US dollar is mostly consolidating with a firmer bias against the G10 currencies. The yen is the exception. The unexpected post-election gains have been extended… https://t.co/s4awtQJ5o7 https://t.co/Xlf89Ydd1E
That little market freakout is a real mechanism: if AI makes it cheap to do what a vendor used to sell you, the vendor’s future profits fall—even as the rest of us get more productive. https://t.co/HE7npk5km7
Gold is back above $5,000. The rise in gold is one manifestation of the debasement trade, which is about markets seeking safe havens from debt monetization. Big thanks to @DavidWestin from @BloombergTV for all the right questions and a great...
The greenback is a little firmer against the G10 currencies but the yen as it consolidates yesterday's sharp losses. JGB yields are softer. Meanwhile this could be only the 2nd session since mid-Jan that the US 10-year yield...
The Dollar versus EM today is down to a new low, which is below its level 2 weeks ago at the height of Greenland headlines. It's the Dollar versus EM you want to watch for future direction. The signal it's...
Emmanuel Macron: « Now is the time for the EU to launch a joint borrowing capacity, through eurobonds. » https://t.co/NqqbjjecXk
