Oil Upside Limited Even With Iranian Embargo, Brent at $115
I'm starting a new weekly video every Saturday morning on markets and macro. The first episode was yesterday. I discussed why upside to oil is limited even if we embargo Iranian oil. Brent at $115 already prices significant disruption. You can watch here: https://t.co/5LcvLNHLpG https://t.co/Uskn6n2zAn
Subtract 300k Bpd From 2026 Oil Demand Forecasts
⭕️For now, whatever your estimates of global oil consumption growth for 2026, subtract about 300 kb/d from it. This number will change as we move forward.
Embargo Iranian Oil; Cut Funding to War‑fueling Regimes
I support an embargo of Iranian oil. The reason is Russia. We never embargoed Russia. If we had, there's a good chance it wouldn't still be wreaking havoc in Ukraine. You just can't allow the life blood of these regimes...
Oil Surge and Strong USD Favor Energy Exporters
Macro: Tadawul -0.13%; financials, real estate & retail lag. Oil jump (Brent $105) and firmer USD drive divergence. Risk: oil volatility, FX swings. Trade: buy energy exporters. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Hormuz Crisis Exposes Superpower Indifference to Global Lives
The international fallout from the Hormuz crisis and its unintended consequences have me wondering: Is this another global experiment? And if it is, do we have to wait until all the results are collected? I am just asking a question. ...
Dollar Weakness Paused; Brazil Set to Surge Post‑war
The Dollar downtrend has now been meaningfully disrupted. But that doesn't mean it's over. As soon as this war ends - and it must because of the midterms - Dollar weakness will reassert itself. EM commodity exporters like Brazil will...
Personal Services Spending Fuels 3.3% Inflation, Outpacing Fed Target
Robust consumer spending on manicures, haircuts, and dog daycare is FORCING services inflation to 3.3%/yr. That's stubbornly above the Fed's 2%/yr target. THE US WILL NEVER GET THE INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/YhMhZTG7Gl
Yield Spread Peaks, Prompting Duration Risk Exit
3m10y yield spread 71bps... highest since July 2022... time to step out on the duration-risk curve? $AGG https://t.co/ozSwbxzLA4
Saudi Oil Revenues Rise, No Gold‑selling Crisis
There's lots of misinformation at the moment, including the idea that big Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia are having to sell gold. Saudi Arabia's revenues from oil exports are actually up, because the rise in oil prices more than offsets...
Today's Chartbook Highlights Crucial Map for Immediate Insight
Hard to think of a more important map than this right now, featured on today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/qA2ezld5Aa
Stagflation and War Trigger Biggest 60/40 Loss Since 2022
Stagflationary winds and the biggest monthly loss for the classic 60/40 investment portfolio since 2022, the global economic and financial fallout of the Middle East War are tangible. This week’s data deluge will help us assess how much resilience remains in...
Turkey Alone Sells Gold Amid Fragile Currency Peg
A recurrent theme since war began is that central banks are selling gold. That's mostly not true, but there is one central bank that did. Turkey's gold holdings have fallen 50 tons in recent weeks. But Turkey is an outlier...
Discussing Iran War and Rubio’s G7 Visit on Bloomberg
About to be on @BloombergTV's "Bloomberg This Weekend" with @davidgura @EenaRuffini @LisaMateoTV to talk about the #IranWar and Secretary of State Marco Rubio's visit to France for the #G7
Immigrants Expand Demand, Creating New Jobs
Immigrants weren’t just filling existing jobs; they were helping create them. That’s Econ 101: jobs are not a fixed pie. More people means more customers, more demand, more businesses expanding, and yes, more hiring. https://t.co/TuC32PJmUk
War‑Driven Energy Shock Pushes Importers Toward Alternatives
As the outbreak of a regional war disrupts global energy markets for the second time in four years, oil & gas importing countries will be motivated to find alternatives; coal, nuclear, renewables and EVs alike, as @bradplumer & Rebecca Elliott...
Heavy Data Week Ahead, Iran Conflict Still Dominates
This week is packed with market moving data but Iran War will remain a key focus 👇 🇺🇸 US -Retail Sales -Non-Farm Payrolls -ADP -Chicago PMI -ISM Mfg -Confidence -Trade 🇪🇺 EZ -EZ CPI & GE CPI -Confidence -GE Retail Sales -GE Unemployment 🇬🇧 UK -GDP 🇨🇦 CA -GDP -Trade 🇦🇺 AU -RBA Minutes -Trade 🇯🇵 JP -CPI -Retail Sales -Tankan
US Empire Decline Confirmed, Eastern Powers Ascend
Back in 2010 on @cnbc , I warned that the American empire was entering a phase of rapid decline, and that Eastern powers would rise to fill the vacuum. 📉That forecast is now unfolding in real time. This isn’t hindsight....
Pakistan Hosts Saudi, Turkish, Egyptian Ministers to Mediate US‑Iran Tensions
The foreign affairs ministers of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt are gathering in Islamabad today for urgent talks as they try to mediate between the US and Iran.
All Markets Move as One Unified Implicate Order
The Implicate Order is the portfolio Bohm's undivided whole isn't philosophy — it's how Oil, Dollar, Bond Yields, and Equity Sectors move together inside a single Quad The Macro Tourist sees separate assets. The Fractal Mathematician sees...
Iran Conflict Erases $12 Trillion, Global Stocks Drop $11.5 Tr
Meanwhile, the conflict in Iran has already wiped about $12 trillion off global markets. Many investors are selling off assets due to the risk of escalation and rising oil prices. As a result, the total capitalization of the global stock market...
Eurozone Borrowing Costs Spike over Iran Shock Fears
Eurozone borrowing costs soar on fears of fiscal hit from Iran shock via @FT https://t.co/QuVa5RF5wm
Bear Scenario Looms: Oil Spikes, Fed Stuck, S&P Near 6k
Looks like next week is heading towards the bear case scenario I highlighted in my weekly report. Bear case (35% probability): The April 6 deadline produces strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Iran retaliates against Saudi or UAE oil facilities. Brent breaks...
Euro Adoption Spikes Bulgaria's Inflation Beyond ECB Target
Bulgaria’s FORCED ADOPTION of the Euro was supposed to benefit Bulgaria. Instead, inflation sits at 3.32%/yr, WELL ABOVE the ECB's 2%/yr inflation target. As the Father of Bulgaria’s currency board, I predicted this. https://t.co/c3KVbZZNxx
Borrowing on Track,
Half the annual borrowing in half the year is completely in line with estimates. A crisis may also need additional borrowing, let's see. Rbi will also announce a pay out soon and the balance sheet is way too large, hope...
Vietnam's Economy Thrives; To Lam Emerges as Reformer
Vietnam's macro situation is so impressive. And To Lam seems to be more of a reformer than I initially thought. https://t.co/pKtcfrLTG6
Global Debt Hits $111 Trillion; US, China Over Half
See how global government debt reached $111 trillion in 2025, with the U.S. and China together accounting for over half the total. https://t.co/rKkfcrsNdf via @visualcap
Underpaid Workers Cause Overproduction and Economic Crises
"Because workers are paid less than the total value they produce, they eventually cannot afford to buy back the goods they have created. This leads to a glut in the market, falling prices, factory closures, and mass unemployment." Karl Marx was...
India Gains Global Market Share Across Industries
India taking market share in almost every global industry, e.g. electronics, machinery and offshore services https://t.co/oP7wSlNcF0
Japan’s Low Inflation Mirrors Sluggish Money Supply Growth
Japan’s inflation eases to 1.26%/yr in February, BELOW its inflation target of 2%/yr. Japan’s money supply (M2) is growing at 1.73%/yr, WELL BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of ~6.07%/yr, consistent w/ Japan’s 2%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY...
Fuel Price Spike to Raise Living Costs Nationwide
The President of South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa; “Higher fuel prices will affect every sector, beginning the 1st of April we are going to see a spike in fuel prices” “𝗜𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲”
Japan, Australia Currencies Slide Together
The upside to Japan’s risk aversion – ample petroleum reserves The Yen has weakened against the US$ since the Iran war drove the oil price higher, but so too has the AU$. Japan imports most of its energy needs, so a...
Houthis May Keep Bab‑el‑Mandeb Strait Open
In fairness this means the Houthis are also considering not closing the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, guys. https://t.co/ZiiVU0cw8C
US‑Israeli War Sends 60‑40 Portfolio to Worst Month Since 2022
As a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the traditional '60-40' portfolio of equities and bonds is on track for the worst month since September 2022. US-ISRAELI WAR = NOT WALL STREET'S FRIEND. https://t.co/kWe8ucZedL
Europe Must Choose: US Alliance or China‑Russia Bloc
This article is actually correct, but gets the context wrong: The true context is the misaligment of Europas and US objectives Europe is focusing on Russia and sees China as partner. However China is USAs enemy, and therefore Europa can’t...
Europe Stuck Between China Dependency and US Reliance
Yes, this is the key question right now. And the answer is No because Europes economy depends on China, but also Yes, because we need American defense, energy, tech and trade. The alternative is Russian energy, Chinese Tech, defense and Trade So...
Oil Sparked Rally; Fed and Other
Oil started it. The Fed can't finish it. And two other headwinds that have nothing to do with Iran Full breakdown in new report 👇 https://www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/iran-is-one-problem-this-market-has
Houthis' Missile Threat Could Disrupt Red Sea Oil Flow
FEDWATCH: “.. the Houthis have entered the conflict by launching ballistic missile attacks ..; their next move could be targeting vessels in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb into the Red Sea .. The oil market, rightfully, is sensing that...
US Inflation Rises; Ongoing US‑Iran Conflict Keeps It High
🇺🇸 US inflation keeps rising. As long as the US-Iran conflict persists, inflation will likely stay elevated. https://t.co/LatxByAQYN
Reserve Currency Advantage No Longer Erodes Domestic Industry
the idea that the privilege of the reserve currency automatically guts the domestic industrial base was true when the world was globalizing, there was one supply chain, and the law of one price was intact. Those days are over....
Iran Conflict Spikes Oil, Fuels Inflation, Stalls Rate Cuts
The war in Iran has set off a chain of events, with soaring oil prices driving higher inflation expectations, lower rate cut odds, and a pullback in precious metals.
Global Public Debt Hits Record, Equals World GDP
International Monetary Fund: Global public debt has risen to a record level - nearly 100% of global GDP. https://t.co/H6FXJN78RZ
Future View:
guy in the future: “So, how serious is this, on a scale of just noise to that time the Strait of Hormuz got closed?”
China’s Battery and EV Exports Surpass Solar, Defying Tariffs
China's cleantech exports are surging. A couple observations: 1. All of this is from before the US invasion of Iran and current oil price spike. We should expect these numbers to keep growing, especially EVs. 2. US tariffs haven't stopped China's...
Iran War Triggers Four-Week Mortgage Rate Surge
Rising inflation and gas prices aren’t the only economic challenges arising from the Iran war. Mortgage rates have risen 4 weeks in a row since Trump started the conflict; the average 30-year rate is now 6.38%. @wsj
Inconsistent Bailouts Fueled 2008 Market Panic
(1/2) I recall an interview after the 2008 crash where the late economist Anna Schwartz said she thought the market threw up its hands in confusion and crashed because the government was so inconsistent about which bank they saved and...
Goldman Sachs Predicts US Economy Hit by Trump's Iran War
Thanks to Trump's war on Iran, Goldman Sachs concludes that the US economy will take A BIG HIT. It's time to start taking the 2nd President of the U.S. Thomas Jefferson's proclamation seriously: "I hold it that a little rebellion now...
Market Break Confirmed: Volatility Spikes, Next Collapse Uncertain
$VIX 31. $SPY -3.4% YTD. Brent +47% monthly. 10Y at 4.44%. Gold $4,439. If you're waiting for confirmation that something broke — this is the confirmation. The question is what breaks next. https://t.co/SxUUBm3sBm
US Income Growth Fueled by Top 10% Outperformance
Higher average per capita incomes in the US are down to the divergence of the top 10 percent of the income distribution from the rest of the US and the rest of the world. More on this in the Chartbook...
Rising Yields and Growth Fears Prompt TLT, SPY Sell‑offs
10Y yield at 4.44%. Highest since July 2025. Rates rising while growth fears mount. $TLT sellers and $SPY sellers agree on one thing: neither wants to own the future right now. That's a problem. https://t.co/lYjNri1VOz
Markets Misread Peace, War Risk Drives Volatility
Ceasefire hopes faded. Trump extended the Iran deadline 10 days. Brent crude didn't flinch at $112. $VIX held above 30. The market priced in peace and got more war. That repricing has further to go. https://t.co/e3sUJyyL7v