Iran War Scenarios Shape New Fed Policy Outlook
Three scenarios for the Iran war and what they mean for Fed policy under new leadership. Plus eight key takeaways from the latest FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/Tx6udRxjvm
Soybean $12 Barrier Demands $100+ Oil, Crop Shortfalls
Soybean's $12 Ceiling Alongside $120 Crude Oil - It may take some combination of WTI crude oil staying above $100 a barrel, a poor Brazilian crop and a Corn Belt drought for soybeans to stay above $12 a bushel. Alongside...
Steepener Trade Finds Relief as Front‑end Yields Rise
The UST 2s5s steepener has been my 'white whale' trade the past year, facing constant pressure from shifting macro drivers. It was first flattened by the AI disruption trade, then crushed by the surge in front-end yields following the outbreak...
Dollar and Oil Hold Steady After Trump’s Iran Pledge
The Dollar and Oil are Bid: The dollar and oil remain firm. The market has a had muted reaction to President Trump’s announcement late yesterday that it will extend its pledge not to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure for ten days...
Post‑WWII Worker Power Erased by 1979 Neoliberalism
This is one of my favourite charts. It shows how the economy emerged from WW2 with a lot more worker power.. and then post-1979 neoliberalism crushed it. sorry folks, we aint gonna get another wage-price spiral https://t.co/KydXL5zIer
Brent Surpasses $110 as Hormuz Closure Cuts 15M Barrels Daily
Gm, oil watchers Brent crude back above $110 this morning because—and stop me if you’ve heard this one—the Strait of Hormuz remains shut and the world oil market is losing 15 million barrels every day that remains true https://t.co/jg4V9IlWhv
USD/JPY Near 160 as Risk Appetite Remains Cautious
Ahead of the weekend, amid the fog of war, risk appetites are restrained. Escalation to de-escalate? Is today the day the greenback pushes above $JPY160? PBOC sets $USD fix higher on weekly basis for the 1st time in...
UK Faces Steeper Inflation and Slower Growth Than Eurozone
The Effects of Higher Energy Prices CfM/NIESR survey: UK would experience greater negative effects than Euro Area: higher inflation & lower growth due to macro backdrop, fiscal/monetary policy responses & uncertainty over the conflict’s duration as reasons https://t.co/HG4SdveXNQ
Ukraine Faces Funding Shortfall, Defense at Risk
“Ukraine risks running out of money to pay for its defense against Russia within two months as a multitude of factors converge to threaten tens of billions of euros in assistance from the country’s key donors. Kyiv currently has only enough...
China Probes US Trade Measures for WTO Violations
China Initiates Probes Into U.S. Trade Practices—The Chinese commerce ministry said some U.S. trade measures may violate WTO rules and other economic and trade treaties @QinSherry https://t.co/f62n2UUsnP https://t.co/f62n2UUsnP
BoE Independence Questioned as Letter‑Writing Ritual Sparks US Controversy
Reading this, all I can think is: what does it say about BoE “independence” if even considering its letter-writing model is deemed hyper controversial in the US? Moreover, I suspect a few former UK PMs would dispute the idea that...
Bond Yields Surge Globally as Japan Joins US/EU Breakout
Global Bond Yields continue to ramp higher alongside #Quad3 INFLATION Japan's 10yr ramped +11bps (thats a lot in a day) today joining the breakout in European and US Yields
Gold May Not Rebound If Fed Shrinks Balance Sheet
So weird anyone is surprised by this. Time and time again, gold falls at the peak of a liquidity/financial crisis because people liquidate emergency supplies. Note Turkey. But then usually corrects higher once things stabilise (especially if Cbanks flood the...
Iran Crisis Could Halve Germany's 2026 Growth, VAT Rise Debated
Good Morning from Germany, where officials are warning that the Iran crisis could cut 2026 growth in half. Internal estimates suggest expansion of just 0.5% in a worst-case scenario, and 0.6% to 0.7% even under less severe assumptions of persistently...
Spanish Inflation Spikes Fastest Since 2024 Amid Iran War
Spanish inflation accelerates at fastest pace since 2024 on Iran war https://t.co/Po2qM4DdWA via @basteiro https://t.co/CpZxI7JwYZ
China Slashes LNG Imports, Pivots to Domestic Gas
China is cutting LNG purchases as the Middle East conflict boosts prices 🇨🇳🚢 📉 March imports are poised to fall to lowest level in 8 years ⚠️ Instead of LNG, China is turning to domestic/pipeline gas. This will help free up supply...
Politicized Money Boosts Policy Risk, Hedge USD Exposure
Macro: politicization of money raises policy risk. Key factors: Trump to sign US bills, symbolic reflation tilt. Risks: polarization, FX volatility. Trade insight: hedge USD exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Global Risk Concentrates in Few Nations, Demands Selective Exposure
Global risk isn’t evenly distributed. In 2026, a small group of countries - including Belarus, Lebanon, Sudan, and Venezuela - sit at the top of the global risk ranking, with premiums around 30.9%. At the other end, only 19 countries globally have risk levels below...
Iran's Strategic Blunder: Chinese Ships Reroute Before Hormuz
Onshore media just reported that: "Two container ships under China's COSCO Shipping Lines have turned back toward the Persian Gulf and have not yet passed through the Strait of Hormuz." I think this is a strategic mistake by Iran.
Iran-India LPG Trade Resumes as Strait Reopens
Iran-India fuel trade begins after strait open sesame, first LPG cargo due this week https://t.co/834nbwZFHx via @ETEnergyWorld
France Must Keep Slashing Deficit, Says Bank Chief
Bank of France chief says the country must continue cutting its deficit https://t.co/hlQK302LUB via @Alanrkatz https://t.co/jy5uVDlDMv
Europe's Economy Feels Strain From Trump's Iran War
Europe’s economy is starting to feel pain from Trump’s Iran war https://t.co/CIvXuCML5t via @jrandow @weberalexander https://t.co/y98tnQWvQJ
USD/INR at 94.27 Signals Prolonged Market Turbulence
94.27 on the USDINR. These are going to be rough times, and it's going to take time for flows to come back in
Middle East Turmoil Strains $30tn US Treasury Market
Supply Chain risk is financial risk. “The $30tn US Treasury market is showing growing signs of strain, as turmoil in the Middle East drives swings in bonds that underpin the financial system. The ease of trading in the world’s biggest...
Saudi Crude Exports Surge From Western Ports
A Picture Worth a Thousand Words: Saudi Crude Exports from Western Ports Continue to Rise https://t.co/fSDuoL9nVW
Iran War Unleashes Unprecedented Oil Market Disconnect
The complexity, uncertainty and fluidity of the Iran war’s impact on oil markets have made it increasingly challenging to compress analysis into 45-second soundbites in 5-7 minute TV interviews — though I’ve done my best over the past 4 weeks. So...
China Mulls Loosening Investor Limits to Aid Banks
Reuters: "China is considering easing shareholding restrictions for some major investors, people with knowledge of the matter said, in a move aimed at broadening capital-raising options for commercial banks reeling from an economic slowdown." https://t.co/HCdl6eFRCX
Productivity‑Led Boom Still Likely, War Sparks Stagflation Fears
YARDENI RESEARCH CHART OF THE DAY (March 26, 2026) We've been betting on the productivity-led Roaring 2020s. That's still our 60% base case. So far, this scenario has been on the money. However, the war has increased the risks of a...
Ringgit Slides to 4.00/USD, Investors Eye Fuel Subsidy Risk
Ringgit seeing weakness the last few days. It’s now: • 4.00 against USD • 3.12 against SGD Since the US war began, ringgit has weakened against Yuan, Yen, GBP, EUR. Could it be investors becoming a bit concerned about rising fuel subsidy bill?
Global Economy Faces Early Contagion: Rationing, Price Spikes, Policy Shocks
Headlines & tweets about talks & deals are NOISE at this point THE SIGNAL is rationing, price spikes, policy interventions, & rising stress in import-dependent economies We're in the early stage of CONTAGION This time it's not a novel virus It's a heart attack...
More European Tariffs Could Boost Ties With
Aw gee Marco. Tariff Europe some more. Maybe that will help. Or better yet side up even more with Putin.
AI Boom Faces War, Resource Crisis, Potential Bubble Burst
The AI economy looks...really precarious. So @matteowong1 & I did a bunch of reporting to try to figure out what happens when a potential bubble collides with a war in Iran and a potential resource shortage. The answer is...arguably the...
11 Days of Delay Add 400M Barrels Lost
Time is irreversible damage Trump has kicked the can till April 6 11 more days of disruption = 120MM additional barrels shut in ==>cumulative losses ~400MM, notes @ericnuttall That’s how a “temporary” disruption becomes a lasting supply shock. #Oil #Hormuz #SupplyShock #EnergyCrisis #Inventories...
Trump Faces No‑Win Iran Standoff Threatening Global Economy
The important thing is that Trump is out of attractive options. Hormuz has to open, or the global economy dies. Iran won’t negotiate and ground wars are messy. Given the size and population of Iran, we likely need a force...
Iran Targets New Chokepoints, Bab Al‑Mandeb Enters Play
Bab al-Mandeb is now in play Another chokepoint, another layer of disrupt Iran doesn’t need to win militarily. It just needs to expand the number of places it can break the system. https://t.co/k876kDiu36 #Hormuz #BabAlMandeb #Oil #Shipping #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis #RedSea #Suez #Iran #OOTT
ECB Shifts From Rate Cuts to Hikes Amid Energy Shock
The ECB spent two years cutting rates to revive growth. Now energy shocks are forcing them to hike into a slowdown. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/ZKgiJs3tbu
Rubio: Hormuz Could Reopen Tomorrow if Iran Stops Threats
I asked Sec. Rubio planeside if the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened without US boots on the ground. He said it's a Dept. of War question, but "It can be open tomorrow if #Iran stops threatening global shipping, which is...
Tight Copper, Aluminium Supply Set to Boost Prices Through 2026
ING expects tight copper and aluminium supply to support prices into 2026 amid tariffs, weak mine output, and power constraints. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/tight-copper-and-aluminium-supply-keeps.html
Jefferson and Barr's Speeches Raise Fedlock Hawkishness
Today's policy speeches from Jefferson and Barr continue to push the Fedlock hawkishness measure even higher. https://t.co/PYi7b3edxv
Chicago Fed Forecasts March Unemployment at 4.46%
The Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast for March is 4.46%, up slightly from the BLS value for the previous month. https://t.co/fmDwn7KNXM https://t.co/DQnoKpB7NE
Putin Urges Oligarchs to Fund Budget Amid War
NEW: Vladimir Putin has asked oligarchs to donate to Russia’s budget in a bid to stabilise the country’s finances as he presses on with his invasion of Ukraine. The comments made it clear Putin won't back down despite strains on...
Hormuz Closure Leaves Quarter of US Farmers Fertilizer‑starved
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has left 25% of US farmers UNABLE to secure fertilizer for the upcoming planting season. US FARMERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/IGb9NjwDiw
Contrasting Market Odds Reveal Macro Arbitrage Opportunity
There is a macro arb here... The prediction market for 'US forces enter Iran by April 30th' (59%) and 'US-Iran Cease Fire by April 30th' (47%).. https://t.co/W305cB56pm
Mexico's Rate Cut Highlights EM Outpacing Developed Central Banks
mexico just cut rates 25bps (split 3-2 vote) some DM central banks already getting outclassed by an EM
Two Decades of Flat GDP Threaten UK's Welfare State
Depressing. UK GDP per capita has been flat for two decades. Without growth, the welfare state is on borrowed time. We need to shrink the state and unleash enterprise. https://t.co/uatuXQg13e
Iran Ships 1.5M Barrels Daily, Prices Surge
four weeks in, iran continues to export oil through the strait of hormuz. 1.5 million barrels a day, at significantly higher prices than before the war.
Embrace Latin America Pullback in Emerging Bull Market
Not a day to stay on the sidelines. Aside from gold: I welcome this pullback in Latin American stocks. Looks like a correction within the early innings of a structural bull market in emerging markets. https://t.co/PqNvdOT6AB https://t.co/nL6e7JkoCR
Fink Proposes Turning Safety Net Into Massive Leveraged Brokerage
Larry Fink, chairman and CEO of BlackRock, is urging policymakers to consider using America’s flagship safety-net program like a giant brokerage account — using borrowed money. https://t.co/cSg0rDZCTu
Nitrogen Fertilizers Hit Hard as Gas Prices Surge
Potash and phosphate-based fertilizers remain mostly unaffected, but nitrogen-based fertilizers that rely on natural gas are the problem. Global urea and ammonia supplies are already being hit hard. #fertilizer #foodsupply #geopolitics https://t.co/LaLbS7VyH1
War's Economics Drive Housing Market Turbulence
Logan Mohtashami on the economics of war and its effect on housing https://t.co/23QO1ifkKU via @YouTube