War‑Driven Energy Prices Fuel Stagflation Amid 4.2% Inflation
The headline is 4.2 % US INFLATION The real story is STAGFLATION Longer war = higher energy prices Higher energy prices = inflation + weaker growth The only uncertainty is how long it lasts. #OECD #Oil #Inflation #Stagflation #EnergyCrisis #Macro #Geopolitics #Growth #oott https://t.co/45wdFPUgY0
Long SOFR Futures Cheap, Expect No Rate Hikes
Now that cuts have been completely priced out through late 2026 into 1H 2027, long SOFR futures are extremely attractively priced. I do not believe hikes will happen as that would twist the knife into a global recession, so therefore...
Iran War Derails Global Economic Optimism
Iran war just canceled a better economic outlook for the world https://t.co/4zqeIEwXkO via @CraigStirling @WHorobin https://t.co/hfVE77iQwZ
1990 Crisis: Central Banks Opted for Inaction Amid Uncertainty
🧵Let me take you back to August 1990. Three weeks ago, Iraq invaded Kuwait, oil prices have surged, and the FOMC is meeting to decide how to respond. The economy looks wobbly. Payrolls just recorded a small decline. Greenspan talks...
Pentagon's Puzzling Move Despite Iran's Desperation and US Victory
The negotiations are going so well, Iran is so desperate for a deal and the US has already won the war... So, why is the Pentagon considering this?
Global Trade Faces Fragmentation Amid Geopolitical Upheaval
From Liberation Day to the Strait of Hormuz, is global trade and world order going thru an upheaval? Will the world move go from bifurcation or trifurcation to fragmentation? Who will dominant? What would supply chains look like and operate...
Blockade Risks Spike Prices, Yet Market Already Priced In
Key pushback to a blockade is that it might spike oil prices. Iran's 2 million barrels per day could spike oil prices by 20% if they go offline, but - with Brent already up 60% from before the war -...
Markets Shift From Rate Cuts to Tightening Regime
Six months ago: markets pricing 3+ rate cuts. Now: pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING. The Fed didn't pivot. The Fed reversed. 37% chance of ZERO cuts in 2026. This isn't a soft landing. This is a regime change. $SPY $TLT $QQQ https://t.co/UxC4Gdd51F
High‑Yield Spreads Tight Now, Widening Ahead
So far, HY credit spreads haven't widened anyway near as much as they should - given sustained oil prices & its large swings, not to mention supported high VIX & mechanical selling. Wait and see mode only lasts so long... Geopolitical shocks...
Trump Threatens NATO, Tariffs Raise Putin Concerns
“NEVER FORGET”. Trump’s threat to NATO. And its countries. Tariffs. Then? What is Putin thinking? https://t.co/9rM5Qpfg8L
Ignoring Climate Risks Threatens 20% Global GDP Loss
The sad truth... This pattern is not limited to climate change. Too often, the economy stands above health, peace, environment and even people. Nothing seems to come before the economy... When it comes to climate, the economy is often treated as the...
Deutsche Bank's Index Quantifies Presidential Pressure Using Markets
"Maximilian Uleer and his team at Deutsche Bank developed a simple and useful index of the pressure on the president, an equal-weight measure composed of four-week changes in the S&P 500, the 10-year Treasury, short-term inflation expectations and the presidential...
OECD: Middle East War Hits UK Growth Hardest
I can't imagine why..👀👀 UK faces biggest hit to growth from Middle East war, OECD warns https://t.co/ktp9YMPz8O via @ft
Saudi Lobbying US to Prolong War for Oil Profits
The Saudis are lobbying the US for war to continue. On the surface, they want Iran to be properly defeated, but there's another reason. They're making lots more money now than before the war, even with somewhat lower export volumes...
OECD: UK Suffers Biggest Economic Blow From War
UK faces worst hit from the war among major economies, OECD warns https://t.co/Uhp1SWBHHa via @PhilAldrick https://t.co/tx47vbOjRe
Germany Warns Iran Crisis Could Halve 2026 Growth
Germany sees the danger of its 2026 growth rate halving on the Iran crisis https://t.co/nHLUdPr4mQ via @KowalczeKamil https://t.co/VRembvehDw
Middle East Conflict Reignites Inflation, Stalls Global Recovery
The conflict in the Middle East is reviving the specter of inflation and hobbling the global economy just as it was showing signs of strengthening at the start of the year, the OECD says https://t.co/QZXRbRvX44 via @WHorobin https://t.co/YbWb9a8eX6
Trump's 6‑Week Iran Deadline Triggers Market Volatility
🚨 TRUMP SETS 4–6 WEEK DEADLINE TO END IRAN CONFLICT President Trump is pushing for a quick resolution within 4 to 6 weeks and has proposed a 15-point peace plan that includes dismantling Iran’s nuclear sites. Meanwhile, the U.S. is deploying 1,000...
US Yield Spike Driven by Term Premia, Not Inflation
The move higher in US yields has been entirely driven by term premia, not inflation expectations. Real yields on 10-year bonds are the highest in almost a year. The implication seems to be that investors are worried about the fiscal...
Norges Bank Signals Upcoming Rate Hike This Year
🇳🇴 Norges Bank hawkish pivot charted. The policy rate is expected to be raised "at one of the forthcoming meetings" assuming the economy "evolves broadly as currently envisaged". https://t.co/3LIbGfEvOW
Norway Signals Rate Hike After Holding at 4%
Norway pivots toward a hike after keeping its rate steady at 4% https://t.co/NIIgGpvVNO via @ottummelas https://t.co/RxPhCKi99b
Germany Prepares Countermeasures Against US Firms Amid Trump Tensions
Germany is drafting a plan to hit US companies in the next Trump clash https://t.co/hK1ZWwcd6t via @KowalczeKamil @mcnienaber @jendeben https://t.co/KgvNfStbJo
German Sentiment Slumps Amid Iran War, Stagflation Fears
Good Morning from Germany, where consumer sentiment is sliding as the Iran war fuels fears of stagflation. The GfK consumer sentiment index dropped by 3.2 points to -28.0, the weakest readings since 2024. Income expectations have fallen back into negative territory,...
Iran's Hormuz Fee Push Spurs Focus on Malacca
Iran's bid to start charging a fee to vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz (Tehran never ratified the UNCLOS despite signing it in 1982) is making other countries ensure they don't encounter such risks in other chokepoints -- the Straits...
Singapore Sees China as Engine for Regional Growth
1/6 Bloomberg: "“Singapore believes China can play a bigger role in supporting regional prosperity and stability,” Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said at the Boao Forum. “Its vast domestic market can be a powerful engine of growth for the region.” https://t.co/npbm7nXQEo
China Claims Right to Counter Mexico's Tariff Hikes
1/9 Reuters: "China said that Mexico's trade measures against it, including tariff increases, constitute trade and investment barriers and that it had the right to take countermeasures." rld/china/china-says-it-has-right-retaliate-against-mexicos-tariff-hikes-2026-03-25/
China’s Growth Model Hinges on Weak Consumption, Excess Investment
The East is Red provides a translation of a very interesting essay by Wang Xiaolu, Deputy Director of the National Economic Research Institute. The problem with the Chinese economy, Wang says (and as I have argued for over a decade), is...
Gulf Crisis Could Cripple Energy Markets Until 2027
The FAT TAIL for the Persian Gulf crisis Prolonged energy disruption & economic dislocation THRU 2027, says @ProfessorKaren That assumes the conflict is resolved in April or May
Deal Won’t Quickly Restore Kuwait Oil Production
Even if a “deal” happens tomorrow, the damage doesn’t reset Kuwait Petroleum says full production recovery takes 3–4 months A ceasefire is just the start of a long, uneven rebuild #Oil #Kuwait #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #SupplyShock #Geopolitics #OOTT #Markets
Opening Strait of Hormuz Crucial for Global Energy Security
Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee agree that the opening the Strait of Hormuz is important Where's DOGE when you need to cut fraud and waste?
Iran's $2 Million Strait Fee Shows Mutual Benefit
Finally, a little commerce is moving in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians benefit by charging up to $2 million for free passage and those who pass obviously benefit or they wouldn’t pay the transit fee. THREE CHEERS FOR COMMERCE. https://t.co/hzDa6MSkxF
Gas Prices Spike, Heralding Inflation Tsunami Ahead
Gasoline is telling you what this war really means. Up $1.00 a gallon in just 25 days. It's the first wave of the coming tsunami of inflation #GasPrices #Oil #Inflation #EnergyCrisis #Iran #Hormuz #Economy #Geopolitics #War #OOTT
Weaponizing Hormuz Is Global Economic Terrorism, Says ADNOC CEO
“Weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz is not an act of aggression against one nation. It is economic terrorism against every nation, every family that depends on affordable energy and food.” Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. CEO Sultan Al Jaber says in speech at @MiddleEastInst...
BlackRock's Rieder Urges Fed to Cut Rates
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder said today he still thinks the 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve should cut interest rates - Bloomberg
Russia Halts Fertilizer Exports, Leveraging 40% Market Share
Russia stopped exports of ammonium nitrate through April to ensure domestic supply during planting season. Russia controls a massive portion of global trade in ammonium nitrate at about 40%. IT LOOKS LIKE MOSCOW IS SAYING SANCTIONS WILL HAVE TO GIVE OR FERTILIZER...
U.S. Pursues Symbolic Victory Over Practical Strategy
These narratives are likely just a reflection of the U.S. searching for a symbolic win, rather than a practical military plan. #iranwar #marines #geopolitics https://t.co/tCey0wFpxi
Asia's Energy Shock: War Disrupts Middle Eastern Supply
Good morning, We are in Day 26 of the war and Asia is reeling from the conflict as we are most dependent on Middle oil and gas. Let's talk about how Asia is affected by this conflict, a thread. You can...
EU Clinches Australian Mineral
Yesterday, the EU struck a trade deal with Australia to secure access to critical minerals, like lithium and aluminum. According to the NYT, US tariffs pushed the deal forward. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = CREATING AMERICAN ENEMIES = PIVOT AWAY FROM UNCLE SAM. https://t.co/Suer5RGrQO
Fed's Losses Shrink; QE Hangover Eases After QT
Fed’s Operating Losses Declined to $19 Billion in 2025, “Unrealized Losses” Declined to $844 Billion. QE hangover a little less atrocious after years of QT and lower interest rates https://t.co/iwXBD2STH5 https://t.co/JmA1t7ABYD
China's $3T Surplus Hasn't Boosted US Bond Inflows
A thread on some work in progress, on China's US bond portfolio As the chart below shows, China's cumulative current account surplus has increased by $3 trillion since the end of 2019 -- and inflows into the US in the US...
US Examines $200 Oil Price Shock Impact on Economy
US officials are examining what a potential spike in oil prices as high as $200 a barrel would mean for the economy, sources tell @hlowenkron @SalehaMohsin and me, a sign of studying possible fallout from extreme scenarios for the #Iran...
Early Shift: Commodities Outsize Financial Assets Importance
It’s only appropriate to revisit this chart after the recent move in markets. And yes… We’re still in the early innings of a regime shift from financial assets to hard assets. The reality is simple: Commodity markets play a critical role, yet their size...
Iran Says Mediated Messages Aren't US Negotiations
This has been a week of the most confusing and contradictory headlines I’ve ever seen in 30 years. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that an exchange of messages between the two countries through mediators “does not mean negotiations with...
General Predicts Limited Impact of US Boots in Iran
I thought this was an interesting interview with a former general about what "boots on the ground" in Iran might look like, and also what would (and wouldn't be accomplished) by some landing on Kharg Island https://t.co/DDEilUbnMz
Japan Minister Discusses War‑Driven Commodity Risks, Seeks Asian Stability
Delighted to meet 🇯🇵’s Minister of Economy, Trade & Industry Ryosei Akazawa @ryosei_akazawa We spoke about how the Middle East war is impacting oil, gas & other commodities, with particular challenges for Asia – and how we can work together...
Fed Expands FIMA Access, Extends Window, Could Crash Yields
This is a really great divergent policy thought we should keep on our radar. If it comes to fruition, we could see a collapse in treasury yields. Fantastic work from @ericwallerstein ! “The solution: the Fed should expand FIMA access to sovereign wealth...
Gulf Nations Unite for Strait Security, Boost Asian Trade
It's the first time in 60 years you've heard Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar all sing from the same song sheet, saying status quo doesn't work. That's really good for everybody because that's a lot more trade into Asia. That'll...
Crash Risk Persists Despite Market Bounce Over Iran Conflict
The Market Bull/Bear Case: US-Israel War on Iran There's always a bull vs. bear case & I made mine. And just because market is trying to have a reflexive bounce, it doesn't negate that crash risk is still critical as fundamentals...
Stranded LNG Cargoes Lose Gas Through Boil‑off Evaporation
@grok There are about 20 LNG cargoes stranded in the Gulf because of the Hormuz crisis, explain to my followers how they lose LNG due to evaporation.
China Prepares for Imminent Hormuz Strait Closure
I said last June-July: China got the message, Hormuz Strait will be closed, and started preparing for it. Read details below.