Current Searches Show Less Slowdown Worry than 2022
FWIW - There's a noticeable difference in search trends today versus 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. While inflation searches are comparably elevating, there's nowhere near the concern about an economic slowdown today as there was then. https://t.co/QkWqRG0gXo
Iran Oil Shock Could Lift U.S. Unemployment 20‑40 Bps
Oil shocks don’t just drive up inflation. They also increase unemployment. In the context of an already weak labor market, GS estimates the Iran oil shock will increase the unemployment rate by 20-40 basis points by the end of the year. Source:...
US Labor Market's Mixed Signals Signal New Normal
The US Labor Market Confounds with its Countercurrents. It May Be the New Normal Labor Market. The Fed has also struggled in dealing with this labor market https://t.co/5TJNIc4U16 https://t.co/JLm2HmsMRX
Export Ban Cuts Gasoline, Spurs Diesel, Jet Fuel Surge
The US has been toying with the idea of a US oil export ban. This might briefly lower gasoline prices in the US, but it would drive up diesel and jet fuel costs and worsen the overall energy shock. ANOTHER HAIRBRAIN IDEA...
BoE Doubts Iran War Will Spark UK Inflation
Bank of England rate-setters doubt that the Iran war will trigger a UK price spiral https://t.co/7RIt9Lei1J via @irinaanghel12 @KowalczeKamil @tomelleryrees https://t.co/nWmHGMb2Qb
Weak Dollar Fails to Lift Emerging Markets Amid Rising Yields
The dollar is below 100 on the index, down nearly 5% over twelve months. Textbook says this boosts emerging markets. But emerging market ETFs are down sharply. The Kospi just fell 3% in a session. That correlation isn't working. Why? US Treasury...
Unconstitutional Tariffs Deliver Costs Without Revenue—A Lose‑Lose
A wry aside (inspired by @stanveuger): Implementing unconstitutional tariffs ensures you get all of the distortions and costs of tariffs, and (assuming refunds are required) none of the revenue. Lose lose.
War Prolongs Oil Price Surge Despite SPR Release
With Brent crude around $109, following the decision to release 400 million barrels from the SPR, along with waivers for Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan oil entering the market, the path is clear: The longer the war drags on, the higher...
Sharpie Maker Warns Tariffs Threaten Tennessee Reshoring
The maker of Sharpie - praised by Trump & other US protectionists - says its "investments in production in Tennessee rely on imported equipment, and the company worries that higher tariffs on those machines could make reshoring and local production...
Iran War Forces Asian Airlines to Add Surcharges
Airlines are being hit HARD in Asia by the war in Iran. Both KLM and Air France have added SURCHARGES on long-haul flights while airlines cancel HUNDREDS of other flights. KLM & AF SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP...
Israel Builds Buffer Zone, Illegally Occupies 8% of Lebanon
In an attempt to ANNEX southern Lebanon, Israel is now setting up fortifications & creating a so-called “buffer zone” between Israel & Lebanon. Israel is already ILLEGALLY occupying about 8% of Lebanon’s territory. https://t.co/9FEQdXkvKH
Goldman Sachs Cuts India Rating, Nifty Target to 25,900
Goldman Sachs downgrades India to Market Weight and lowers NIFTY target to 25,900 from 29,300.
Asian Nations Dumped
Be careful not to confuse changes in valuation and changes in custodial patterns (after Russia's reserves were immobilized) with actual sales https://t.co/zTGz75N9rr
All Signs Point to an Imminent Recession
Unemployment rate rising Geopolitical conflicts rising Price of oil rising Inflation rising Airport travel collapsing Bitcoin dropping Stocks dropping All business cycles must come to an end, and it usually ends with a recession.
Hormuz Closure Likely Drives 10‑Year Yields Higher
As long as Hormuz stays closed (which is highly likely near term), 10y UST yields will likely keep rising until either Fed or Treasury are forced to inject USD liquidity (into an oil spike & increasingly fracturing global supply chains)...
Iran Clears Friendly Bulk Carriers Through Hormuz, Trade Resumes
Iran shepherds friendly bulkers through Hormuz ▶️Evidence the Islamic Republic is allowing its own trade through the Strait of Hormuz ▶️Increase in westbound transits after weeks-long lull ▶️Other bulkers that have waited in the Arabian Sea are now on the move towards the...
US-Israeli Iran War Creates Unpriced Massive Supply Shock
The ill-conceived US-Israeli war against Iran will go down in history as one of the great supply shocks. Surprisingly, it hasn’t been fully priced into the market yet. https://t.co/0P6D68qJi7
UK100 Slides, Trim Cyclicals Amid Commodity Shock Risk
Macro: UK100 -1.29% as Financials & Mining lead. Key: 3i to 52‑wk low; gold -3.5%, Brent +4.9%, USD firmer. Risk: commodity shock, sector contagion. Trade: trim cyclicals. Expect consolidation. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
US 10‑Year Yield Climbs to Over 4.40%
Of note: Up 7 basis points so far today, the yield on the US 10-year government bond is currently trading above 4.40%. #economy #markets #bonds
SARB’s Short
𝗪𝗮𝗿, 𝗢𝗶𝗹, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘆 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗱 🇿🇦 The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) just mapped out two possible futures for South Africa's economy. 𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝟭: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 If the conflict ends within 2 months, oil averages just under $100/barrel, and the...
Venezuela's Oil Output Limited to 300k Bpd by 2026
My view in the @EpochTimes on Pres. Trump's move on Venezuelan oil: “VEN remains a wild card... its output gains will likely be modest [in 2026], ~300,000 barrels/day, due to deep structural damage in the soft & hard infrastructure of VEN’s...
10‑Year
10-year yield was sub 4% at the start of the war. Now it's over 4.4%. Worst month for $TLT since December 2024 https://t.co/OmX97S6MQ1
Only 130 Ships Crossed Hormuz, All Bound for Asia
Just 130 ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz since the war began—barely a day’s worth of traffic under normal conditions. Nearly all have sailed for Asia, with none heading to Europe or the United States. H/T @_MartinKelly_
Treasury Claims Ample Oil, IEA Taps Strategic Reserves
“The oil market is well-supplied” — US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. (… that’s quite a statement after the International Energy Agency had to make the largest ever use of his member’s strategic petroleum reserves…)
Japan's Oil Dependence Triggers Treasury Sales, Yield Spike
Japan imports 94% of its crude from the Middle East. 70% moves through the Strait of Hormuz. When oil spikes, Japan sells Treasuries to defend the yen. When Japan sells Treasuries, yields spike. When yields spike, everything breaks. Watch USD/JPY. $TLT $SPY https://t.co/8Vd43Ls5lB
Iran War's End May Trigger Prolonged Global Shock
The Iran War could end today and the shock would still unfold. The only questions are how big and for how long the shock will last.
Today's Middle East Turmoil Echoes 1990 Gulf War Recession
Why the current set-up reminds @LizAnnSonders of 1990 (Gulf War + recession): - conflict in Middle East & spike in oil prices - economic & market dislocations - concerns about credit linked to Private Equity Apple🔊https://t.co/2dDJ3eD1p7 Spotify📽️https://t.co/gSpDwqSJC9 https://t.co/hNb5bSJvUv
Houthis Threaten to Control Bab Al-Mandeb Chokepoint
Houthis warning they could get involved... Like the Strait of Hormuz they can control the Bab al-Mandeb, a similar chokepoint controlling access to and from the Red Sea
Inflation Re‑accelerates; Fed Likely to Raise Rates Again
CPI in February: 2.4%. Cleveland Fed CPI forecast for March: 3.02%. PCE tracking toward 3.14%. Inflation isn't cooling. Inflation is re-accelerating. The Fed hiked into this once. They'll do it again. $TLT $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/2TPM7EbXp5
2‑Year Yield Surpasses Fed Funds, Signals No Cuts
The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) is now > the Federal Funds Effective Rate (red) and CPI (green). If you believe the 2-Year leads the FFER, there's less likelihood of a rate cut anytime soon. https://t.co/73ZCycQNlj
US Stock Market Among Least Concentrated Globally
You think the S&P 500 Index is too concentrated? Try going to another country for a while. The US is one of the *least* concentrated markets. Here's countries ranked by the % of market made up by top 10 biggest...
Kazakhstan’s View of China Hardens After Ukraine War
Kazakhstan–China Relations: Perceptions of China After the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Gaziza Shakhanova, 2026 https://t.co/lD5RrER3uG
Prolonged Shock Turns Temporary Crisis Into Lasting Economic Damage
"If this lasts longer than the four to five weeks that the president promised... this could do real and lasting damage." That's the whole game: duration turns a shock into an economic problem. https://t.co/dmeAL0v5ib
Turkey Likely Used Gold Swap to Fund Lira Defense
Lots of hints that Turkey has done a gold swap to raise FX to fund the central bank's intervention to defend the lira. It didn't show up in the CBRT's reserve disclosure for March 19th (reporting is lagged a week). ...
Krugman Explains Economic Impact of Iran Oil Embargo
If you're interested in what an Iran oil embargo means, how it would work, how it would be enforced, how high oil prices might rise as a result, what would happen to Iran's economy, I discussed all this with @paulkrugman...
Yen Carry‑Trade Stress Triggers Kospi Slide, Global Ripple
Kospi just dropped 3%+. South Korea doesn't move 3% for no reason. Yen carry trade stress. Japan buying yen. Selling Treasuries to do it. Asian contagion doesn't stay in Asia. Watch $EEM. Watch $FXI. $VIX $SPY https://t.co/M3BpoEWXWm
Iran-Driven Reversals Signal Growing Pressure in Tight Range
We’re now on the fourth or fifth Iran-driven market reversal this week. Mon: rally on ceasefire talk Tue: selloff after denial Wed: rally on U.S. peace plan Thu: selloff as Iran pushed back Hard to keep up, but put simply, pressure is building inside a...
OECD Predicts US Inflation Hitting 4.2% Amid Tight Labor Market
"For the US, the OECD expects inflation to jump to 4.2% this year... Its price outlook for this year is 1.2 percentage point higher than in December, also because the labor market remains tight with slowing net migration and tariffs...
AI Boom Fuels China's Record‑breaking Trade Despite Oil Shock
An investment boom in AI has kept China’s trade volumes on a path to exceed last year’s record levels, offsetting disruptions from higher oil prices in the weeks after war broke out in Iran https://t.co/L3nAViEgYs
Oil Prices Near $100 Amid Overoptimistic Peace Hopes
Brent crude nearing $100. Citi's CIO says markets show "excessive optimism" on peace. Iran rejected the latest US proposal. 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. "Excessive optimism" is a polite way of saying: priced wrong. $OIL $XLE $SPY https://t.co/9YTglnhd8a
Import Prices Surge 2.8%, Tariff Burden Shifts to US
"Compared with February 2025, the import price index excluding petroleum climbed 2.8% — the most since October 2022 and suggesting the tariff burden is falling primarily on US importers." (The index here does not include tariffs.) https://t.co/BThM0jjJxj https://t.co/QmsfwHVOLd
Trump Appears Confused About Whether to Raise or Lower Prices
Old man Trump can't remember whether he was supposed to bring prices down or up https://t.co/1NEJ3Ji5fF
Five Forces Shaping Our Present and Future Risks
There are five major forces that together, operate in a big cycle: - Financial force – money, debts, markets, economy - Domestic political force – internal order and disorder, wealth gaps, and conflict between the left and the right - International world order...
Bank Credit Surges 15% Amid Global Crisis, Recovery Expected
Bank credit growth seems to be back big time, with 15% growth at the end of Feb. While we have a global crisis on, the indicators earlier did see good signs. It could suck for a few months, but I...
AI‑heavy Sectors See Slower Wage Growth
DB: Sectors with higher AI adoption have shown a more significant deceleration in wage growth. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/a0GkxtUZTB
US Export Sales Beat Forecast; Mexico Leads Corn, Soy
🇺🇸U.S. export sales met or exceeded expectations last week. Mexico and Colombia led in corn sales, and Germany and Mexico were the leaders in soybeans for new outright sales (China topped net sales, and those were due to a switch...
War‑Time Economics Drive Oil, Bonds, Mortgage Rates
Today’s podcast, ignore the morning hair, is about war time #economics. #oil #bonds #mortgagerates #chartdaddy @housingwire @sarahteresa6
Gold Holds Despite Rising Real Yields—Warning Sign
Gold at $4,560. Real yields still elevated. Gold is supposed to fall when real yields rise. It's not falling. That's not a hedge. That's a warning. $GLD $TLT $SPY https://t.co/eAdLleClyB
War Beta Reveals Asset Sensitivity to Middle East Tensions
This morning is offering a beautiful moment to see what I call "War Beta" - how price sensitive specific assets are to changes in Middle East tensions.
Skipping Oil Embargo Prolonged Ukraine War, Says Analyst
Key mistake the West made after Putin's invasion of Ukraine was not to embargo Russian oil. The result is that - more than 4 years later - Russia is still waging war with appalling loss of life. A short, sharp...