Analyzing Strategic Risks in the Strait of Hormuz
My appearance today @OnPointRadio with @MeghnaWBUR talking about the Strait of Hormuz. On Point: https://t.co/X1Zkk3Qebt Spotify: https://t.co/ZpzVC27zml Apple: https://t.co/4ahkNZRGed
Resuming Hormuz Traffic Crucial Amid Iran War Uncertainty
My BNN Bloomberg conversation from earlier today for those who missed it. Talked about the state and trajectory of the Iran War, the growing physical-sentiment disconnect in oil markets, and how nothing really matters unless traffic through the Strait of Hormuz...
Oil Shock Won’t Drive New Pipelines for Canada
Canada Doesn’t Need New Pipelines, Despite Oil Shock Economist Werner Antweiler says that a short-term oil shock doesn't overcome the many reasons why Asia won't be a market for Alberta heavy sour crude. #abpoli #ableg https://youtu.be/GUwULJF2jfc
IEA Chief to Brief EU Ministers on Iran War Impact
IEA chief to brief EU finance ministers on Iran war impact this week https://t.co/MQ3pSEFj3B via @europressos https://t.co/7Eo8OA83pz
Italy Slashes Growth Forecast to 0.5%
Italy is said to plan cutting growth forecast to as low as 0.5% https://t.co/H1osZtypmg via @Alemrome @donatopmancini https://t.co/NxADoXpQ0s
Oil Prices Juggle Conflicting US, Iran, Israel Headlines
This volatile oil price remains at the mercy of a flood of (often-contradictory) headlines emanating from the three warring parties — US, Iran, and Israel. #economy #oil #markets #energy #middleeastwar
Live in 40 Minutes: Fed Governor Stephen Miran
Going live with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran in 40 minutes - tune in! @federalreserve
Oil Shock Forces Fed, Bonds, and Outflows Higher
TLT lost $1.2B. HYG lost $623M. 10Y at 4.38% and rising. In a war. Who buys the bond dip? Foreign CBs may be selling to defend currencies vs DXY near 100. Pension funds face oil inflation that muddies the real yield math. Rate-cut traders...
Oil Surge Signals Market Crash, Gold Surge, Inflation Spike
Oil prices up 20% in weeks. 1 day alone added 9%. In 1973, a supply shock like this wiped 45% off the stock market and sent gold up over 2000%. I have spent 55 years building an alternative framework for understanding how...
Hormuz Crisis Threatens Europe, Fuels US Inventory Uncertainty
🚨Hormuz Crisis goes global: Europe is heading for energy shortages, massive price spikes, and deeper reliance on Russian energy. 🚨What is next for US commercial crude inventories after the SPR release? Daily Energy Report https://t.co/W33F3aHN9V
Markets Hedge Both Ceasefire and War, Await Resolution
The market prices a ceasefire and full-scale war simultaneously. Diplomatic pause: oil -10%. Iran denial: oil +4%. SPY -0.80%. Same week. Opposite pricing. 48 hours apart. Beneath the whipsaw, TLT keeps bleeding. Spreads widen. Copper stays down 10% monthly. Breadth broken. Geopolitical noise drives...
Oil Importers Intervene; Turkey's Thin Reserves Raise Risk
A lot of oil importers have been intervening pretty heavily to keep their currencies from depreciating and adding to the oil price shock. Turkey is one of the more interesting cases, as its fx reserves remain limited 1/2 https://t.co/zsikWfgTxD
US Faces $10 Trillion Debt Refinance, Interest Pressure Rising
TEN TRILLION DOLLARS of existing US gov’t debt needs to be refinanced in the next 12 months. This spells more trouble for the out-of-control federal budget in which net interest expense already accounts for 14% of federal spending and is growing...
Gold Shines, Siri Stands Alone, Iran War Hurts Economies
🆓 Wednesday links: gold's safe-haven status, standalone Siri, and the economic pain of the Iran war. https://t.co/2egB9QZjgV image: https://t.co/98xXyDFF3F https://t.co/3zk2NqUkqL
India's LPG Shortage Threatens Households Amid Hormuz Closure
India’s LPG crisis following closure of the Strait of Hormuz The war between the United States and Iran and closure of Strait of Hormuz has become a critical threat to the supply of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) India relies on for...
Paper
Coming to terms with the fact that no matter how the Iran War and Hormuz crisis ends it’s going to be far harder going forward to scoff at claims that the paper market isn’t pricing in physical oil market realities. Catastrophic...
ICC Warns Worst Industrial Crisis Amid Iran Strait Conflict
International Chamber of Commerce head. May be facing ‘worst industrial crisis’. Iran war. Strait. Supply of supply chains.
Iran Rewards Spain with Free Hormuz Passage After Condemnation
🚨 LATEST Iran grants Spain free passage through the Strait of Hormuz The move comes right after Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez publicly called the war “illegal” and a “colossal mistake.” https://t.co/l8uXSjtTvr
Strait Closure Threatens Global Chemical Supply Chains
Strait closure. Global chemical supply chains and production? And what those chemicals are needed for?
US‑Iran Conflict Bolsters Russia’s Grip on Global Food Markets
“An official from an Asian or African country who needs urea before the monsoon does not discuss the Ukrainian question. He calls the Kremlin, and the Kremlin picks up,” she said. On how the US war with Iran is strengthening Russia...
Ukraine's Strikes Cut 40% of Russia's Oil Exports
Ukraine struck another Russian export terminal today. Reuters calculates that 40% of Russian oil export capacity is currently offline. Ukrainian sanctions at work.
Commodities Outpace S&P, Hinting Lower Stock High
did the rally of stocks $SPX vs. commodities since the '22 bottom roll over making a bigger picture lower high in favour of commodities? hmmm.... 👀 https://t.co/06LFvU59Fx
China Struggles to Pair Surplus with Limited Foreign Asset Growth
China's dilemma is that while it can reduce SAFE's exposure to the Treasury market, it hasn't found a way to consistently combine a big external surplus and limited state foreign asset growth. The state banks are doing something...
Geopolitics, History, and Euro Rate Hikes Shape Markets
NEW PODCAST EPISODE. 1) How the Iran situation changes the outlook 2) Lessons from the 1990 recession 3) Are the Europeans seriously gonna hike (again..)
Import Prices Up 2.5% YoY Amid Trump Tariffs
Looks like exporters forgot to eat Trump's tariffs, import prices rose 1.1% in February and 2.5% year-over-year https://t.co/3UkarMgRx7
Saudi Red Sea Oil Shipments Near 5 Million‑Barrel Target
Saudi oil shipments via the Red Sea have been ramping up rapidly and are getting close to the five million BPD target https://t.co/SkPyeLTXbO https://t.co/nmq5Kt89xT
Hormuz Closure Threatens World Economy, Outweighs US Strikes
...and yet Hormuz remains closed. The US bragging about how many targets we've hit in Iran while Hormuz remains closed is the geopolitical equivalent of "Every kid gets a trophy", because Hormuz closure means the world economy is on the clock. Another...
Middle East Tensions Spike, Hitting Energy and Infrastructure
Iran hit Israeli cities AND US bases. Saudi Arabia intercepted a drone. Kuwait's power grid is down. Day 25. $XLE $USO $GLD https://t.co/FhexaYgwcd
10-Year Yield Climbs Amid Accelerating Inflation Nowcast
10-Year Yield Holds Uptrend as Inflation Nowcast Accelerates during #Quad3 The bond market isn’t buying the narrative. 📉📊 📈 10Y still making higher highs/lows 📊 Range: 4.20–4.43%
Africa's Riches Fuel Western Wealth, Not Local Prosperity
Africa has all the wealth, however, once extracted, it lands on the balance sheets of Western Entities and the benefits accrue to foreign powers.
Yield Spikes Signal Worldwide Reset, Not US‑only Trend
It may be tempting to think that the rise in yields is the product of a US-centric dynamic (relating to OPEC recycling no/fewer petrodollars into Treasuries), but the next chart shows that yields are rising everywhere. This is global reset,...
Markets Care About Oil Flow, Not Hormuz Control
Markets don’t really care who controls the Strait of Hormuz as long as the oil starts to flow again — “give markets what they want” doesn’t necessarily mean a US win.
Tehran Likely to Negotiate Before Global Recession Hits
I am not sure that is in Tehran's interest to hold out forever. If they usher in a 1970s style global recession, the "gloves are off." They too have an interest in negotiating somewhere within the Area N. As close...
UK Businesses
UK businesses face a jump of up to 80% in gas bills on Iran war https://t.co/THZNalojSw via @EamonFarhat https://t.co/vr4PvVdKFc
Copper Slumps, Gold Soars: Recession vs Fear
Copper down 10% this month. Gold at $4,550+. Same planet. Completely different signals. One screams recession. One screams fear. $CPER $GLD https://t.co/kChEJn36lH
Russia's Oil Exports Plunge 40% After Drone Attacks
Cool, cool, cool... "At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity is at a halt following Ukrainian drone attacks, a disputed attack on a major pipeline and the seizure of tankers ... the most severe oil supply disruption in the modern...
US Current Account Deficit Halves From Q1 to Q4 2025
Wild swings in the US quarterly current account deficit over the course of 2025 -- from close to 6 pp of GDP in q1 to well under 3% of GDP in q4 ... 1/ https://t.co/2EuT5nM3jZ
Majority of Americans Disapprove US Strikes on Iran
Four weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, 61% of Americans say they disapprove of US military strikes against Iran. THE US PUBLIC HAS TURNED ON THE WAR PRESIDENT. https://t.co/ICQnIktBVK
Trump’s Oil Moves Undone by Zelensky’s Strikes
🛑So let me get this straight: President Trump waived sanctions on Russian oil at sea and released millions of barrels from the SPR to bring oil prices down. Then Zelensky struck Russian oil ports and terminals, tightening oil supply and pushing...
Emerging Markets Plunge Amid War, Strong Dollar, Commodity Chaos
$EEM -3.44% in ONE session. Emerging markets are getting destroyed. War + strong dollar + commodity chaos = perfect storm. $DXY $EFA https://t.co/WNM0jw3qha
Dollar's Strength Misread Despite Recent Index Gains
Thoughts on the Dollar: The dollar's resilience since the war began is not a mystery, but it is being misread. The Dollar Index has appreciated roughly 1.8% this month alone, following a modest 0.65% gain in February after January's 1.35%...
Join Hedgeye Live: Data‑Driven Fed, Economy, Market Talk
I’m looking forward to being “Hedgeye Live" in May. It will be a candid, data-driven discussion between me and @KeithMcCullough on the Fed, the economy, and markets — Get your tickets:https://t.co/jaW2cXRAUD #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy #hedgeye https://t.co/y6q60MXSYn
10-Year Yield Near Critical Triangle Breakout Threatening Markets
While the 10-year yield broke out of a short term range, the weekly chart below still shows bonds holding within a long triangle (in place since 2022). If it breaks, it will be a problem not only for bonds but...
Iran Talks Stall, Boosting Gold While Oil Falls
Today's Opening Bell Iran Talks Stall- Gold Rallies, Oil Slides, USD Holds (asset chaptered) https://t.co/TmUUL0psrk
Live on Bloomberg: Oil Markets and Iran War Outlook
Heads up that I'll be LIVE on @BNNBloomberg to talk oil markets and the [??end of??] the Iran War this morning at 11:15am ET. https://t.co/bqG3IGwkQS
Governments Sign Free‑trade Deals, Sparing Consumers New Tariffs
Yes, and the kicker is that these governments keep signing real, durable, comprehensive FREE TRADE deals without imposing costly new taxes (tariffs) on their consumers. Almost as if....
Oil Futures Curve Tracks Middle East News Shifts
I find the oil futures curve to be a useful way of keeping track of news out of the Middle East, as it provides a useful metric for assessing what's changing, and how much. https://t.co/Hl3XzfUEfP
Americans Rank Economy and Foreign Conflicts as Top Issues
According to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, Americans now see the economy and foreign conflicts as the top two problems facing the country today. TRUMP = THE TARIFF MAN = THE WARMONGER = TANKING. https://t.co/rMaXFSELV1
Spot Dubai Crude Holds Premium Amid Hormuz Uncertainty
Balance of the month cash Dubai crude barrels (white line) still trading higher than the prompt Oman futures (blue) I'm seeing quoted this morning, which are down more sharply, but spot Middle East barrels certainly feeling less pressure and all...
Trump’s Iran War Hurts Global Sentiment, Not U.S. Economy
Trump's war in Iran isn't going to collapse the U.S. economy. But it'll lead to further souring of consumer sentiment, even as it hurts the rest of the world. America will rightfully be seen as a chaos agent who leaves...