High Inflation Dem
If CPI were to trend up to 5% over the next year in the unlikely event that rbob futures kept rolling up to the current spot price...what is the 10 year yield and what has to happen to SPX earnings yield for expected real returns to sit say within 1 st dev of historical norms
US Assures Allies: No Immediate Iran Invasion Plans
Not even a slight bounce on this headline. *US SIGNALS TO ALLIES NO IMMEDIATE PLANS FOR IRAN INVASION
IMF and Leaders Discuss Middle East Conflict’s Energy Impact
Pleased to meet with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva (@KGeorgieva) to discuss the implications of the Middle East conflict for energy markets & economies around the world We agreed to continue to keep in close contact as we support governments in...
Global Energy Shortage Sparks Rationing, Looming Lockdown‑Like Shift
Thoughts? We discuss the emerging global energy crisis and fuel rationing measures being implemented worldwide. Countries like Slovenia and South Korea are implementing fuel rationing systems, while others are grounding flights and pushing work-from-home mandates to conserve energy. We explore...
Yen Poised for 30‑year Breakout as Dollar Stalls
30 year base in the Yen and it's about to breakout higher...US Dollar wrecking ball locked & loaded at the same time the geopolitics won't allow for a release of global dollar liquidity. @crossbordercap What say you?! @SantiagoAuFund What're you seeing? https://t.co/pGBvvssGL6
2026 Oil Spike Likely Demand‑Killer, Not Bull Market
Oil may spike in 2026—but that’s not a new bull market. In a debt-heavy, fragile system, high prices don’t fuel growth—they crush it. This looks more like a spike that kills demand than a cycle that sustains it. LINK👇 https://t.co/kmq5wrQnHw #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Macro #Geopolitics #OilMarkets
USD/JPY Breaches 160, Eyes Potential 162 Breakout
For the first time since July 2024, $USD has pushed above JPY160. It almost reached JPY160.40, which we suggested was needed to confirm a breakout. The BOJ & MOF officials I have spoken with seem more sophisticated that draw an...
Rising Oil and Rates Amplify Stock Market Volatility
Oil & Interest rates, collectively, are single-handedly driving the equity market. The longer prices remain high, the flatter the slope will be WRT stocks. That means, smaller changes in oil/rates will have larger impacts on stocks. One reason this is...
Weekly Live Show Launches: Oil, Gold, Yields Explored
I'm going to start doing a weekly livestream on Saturday mornings at 9 am (ET). Tomorrow will kick things off with a discussion of: (i) impact of an Iran embargo on oil prices; (ii) what's going on with gold and...
Cold War with China Underm
This is important 👇 1. USA is in Cold War with China 2. Europe is economically dependent on China. Something has to change because 1+2 is incompatible with a partnership, which is why the partnership is deteriorating
Trump and Netanyahu's Iran Conflict Spikes Global Oil Costs
Thanks to Trump and Netanyahu's war on Iran, oil prices, jet fuel, and virtually everything under the sun, are taking a hit. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN IS COSTING EVERYONE IN THE WORLD AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/rjfW2er9UQ
Insights Into China's New Five-Year Plan
An assessment of China's new Five-Year Plan from my @CarnegieEndow teammate @damienics who directs @CarnegieChina in Singapore.
Monetary Policy Lag Shapes Current Decision-Making Framework
A special shoutout to Fed guy @josephwang. During our chat Joseph gave a beautiful breakdown of the lagged effects of monetary policy and how that feeds into the current decision making framework and then 3 hours later when @fejau_inc interviewed...
Yardeni: Iran War Could Trap Fed in Stagflation Bind
Ed Yardeni warns the Fed could face a policy bind if the Iran war triggers stagflation, caught between its dual mandate. https://t.co/AEdPXCYmJy
Dollar May Fade, But Not Anytime Soon
In my latest Telegraph column I defend the dollar by channelling @TomCruise’s Maverick. To the claim that the dollar is probably headed for extinction, I say: Maybe so. But not today. https://t.co/lTW4ry33Lp https://t.co/q9PtKebSYk
Erdogan Calls for Unity Among Turks, Arabs, Kurds, Persians
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan shouted from the rooftops: “in one of the world’s most strategic regions,” Turks, Arabs, Kurds and Persians have “lived together for centuries.” They have shared “the same fate and geography,” adding that “our future… will be together.”...
Eurozone Ministers Discuss Energy Risks and Immediate Support Options
At the invitation of Eurogroup President Kyriakos (@Pierrakakis), today I addressed Finance Ministers from across the euro zone on the major energy market impacts of the war in the Middle East and the immediate options to support energy and economic...
Hard Assets Surge as Stagflation Looms, Fed Constrained
Stagflation is written all over this move today. Gold decisively decoupling from overall equities and rising in step with oil and other hard assets. So much for the liquidation narrative — it’s gone completely quiet now. Don’t believe everything you read....
Bullwhip Economy Signals Hyperinflation, Not Stagflation
Very important client post. The Bullwhip Economy 💫Not Stagflation. Hyperinflation. 💫Gold Hedges Stagflation - Not A Bullwhip Economy 💫Some Key Topping Charts https://t.co/Jqx8pnT5Ti
Xi Prioritizes Innovation, Targets TFP Over GDP
My take on the Chinese five year plan and the rise of "high quality" as approximating a "Xi Doctrine" on the economy - for @CarnegieEndow Emissary @CarnegieChina The TL:DR version: - For Xi, innovation-driven economy > consumption driven economy. -...
G7 Confronts War, Iran, Hormuz—And US Accountability
g7 foreign ministers meeting in france today. on the agenda: stop the war, end iran's nuclear program, reopen the strait of hormuz. also on the agenda, implicitly: explain to allies why the us launched this war without telling them and ask...
Only US and China Can Police Hormuz Strait
This is important especially since US and China are the only countries able to ‘police’ the strait of Hormuz
U.S. Debt Hits $39 T, Treasury Declares Insolvency
US DEBT HAS HIT $39T AND IS CLIMBING. As I wrote in Fortune with Dave Walker, former US Comptroller General, US Treasury data show, black on white, that Uncle Sam is INSOLVENT. https://t.co/qKKcJtEuEk
Falling Consumer Confidence May Force Leaders to Dump Foreign Investments
FWIW - With or without further increases in oil prices, should consumer confidence around the globe continue to fall, and "Me Here Now" thinking really set in, it is hard not imagine local policymakers being pressured by voters to dump...
BoJ Must Emergency Hike to Halt JGB Steepening
genuinely think the BoJ needs to emergency hike. don’t toy with the idea of shorting oil futures (you don’t have the juice for that). Ueda—the JGB steepening can end if you have the courage to do what’s right. https://t.co/cHO1FRRfAf
Iran War's Market Ripple: Key Signposts From Luke Gromen
No better timing than to have @LukeGromen as my guest tonight on The Danny Moses Show @scrippsnews at 7PM ET. We discuss the impact that the war in Iran is having on global markets & what we should be watching....
STIRs Reveal Uncertainty: Inflation vs Growth Slowdown
Not often you see STIRs trying to price hikes and cuts at the same time, but that is the current level of uncertainty. What will dominate in the next few months, inflation or a growth slowdown? Get...
Short‑Term Inflation Expectations Spike, Long‑Term Dip
UMich biggest sour swing since April 2025.. 1yr inflation expectations surge to 3.8%... but the long-term inflation outlook was down a tick https://t.co/jKnBGuulSH
US Inflation Surges to 4.2% Amid Tariffs, War
U.S. consumers will be among the hardest hit by Trump’s tariff policies & the Iran war. The OECD raised its U.S. inflation estimation for this year to 4.2% — an increase of 1.2 percentage points, the 4th largest uptick among all...
US Consumer Sentiment Hits Near Historic Lows Amid Uncertainty
US Consumer Sentiment just fell in March to 53.3, one of the lowest readings of all time. The only lower readings? Nov/Dec 2025 after longest gov't shutdown April/May 2025 after 'Liberation Day' tariffs June/July 2022 during inflation spike Americans are struggling to navigate all...
Early War Fade Wrong; Shorts Closed, Risk Remains
The consensus in early March was the war is a fade because geopolitics is always a fade. I wrote a piece titled: "am/FX: Too Many Faders" on March 2 outlining why it was way too early to fade an escalating...
OECD Predicts 4.2% US Inflation, Trump’s Achilles’ Heel
The OECD warns that US inflation will surge to 4.2% this year. As I predicted, the inflation genie will not be put back in the bottle and will remain one of Trump’s Achilles’ heels.
UK Faces First Ever Net Salt Imports
For the first time in history, the UK could become a net importer of salt. https://t.co/LebKeoPpE6 https://t.co/SJkfWqLqVr
U.S. Pivots to Western Hemisphere Energy, Partnering with Venezuela
My view in the @EpochTimes on the US reducing reliance on Middle Eastern oil: “There is a strategic shift toward a more resilient Western Hemisphere energy bloc... through tighter integration of supply chains ... with Venezuela." https://t.co/DLlkE38yYS
China Launches Trade Probes in Response to U.S. Actions
China Hits Back at U.S. With New Trade Probes Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit Beijing responds to investigations by the U.S. that could raise tariffs @pstAsiatech: yes, Beijing will respond to every measure coming from within Beltway, every one.. https://t.co/XZraiO7f8W
China Plays the Long Game Against Trump
How China Is Playing the Long Game With Trump China is always playing the long game... https://t.co/ca5y4Jpyct
Ceasefire Secures Higher, Long‑Term Oil Price Plateau
"Let's just say on Friday we sign a cease fire and all hostilities cease. We are not going back to 60 bucks (per barrel). There's going to be a geopolitical risk premium built into the price of oil... You will...
Iran War Hits Oil, Markets Down <10%
The global investment community has been discussing the substantial impact of the war in Iran on the markets. Yet, the indices I follow, through Vanguard Group UK funds, show a decline of less than 10%. So far, most of the impact...
Massive Money Printing Spurs BTC, ZEC, SPY Put Buying
We are going to print so much money it’s disgusting. Buying BTC, ZEC, and SPY puts.
Weekend Approaches, Markets Nervous Amid Growing Risks
THE WEEKEND IS COMING. MARKETS ARE NERVOUS. HERE'S WHY Markets are cracking 📉 Gold up. Oil up. Stocks down. Traders are dumping before the weekend😬 Iran. Trade. Inflation The risk isn't going away it's building Here's what you need to know👇 https://t.co/7vLLHhW9RC
Iran War Cripples Hormuz, Triggers Unprecedented Oil Shock
"The biggest supply disruption in history." The war in Iran has closed the straight of Hormuz, damaged energy infrastructure across the region, and sent shockwaves across the global oil & gas industry. It's so big, it's hard to get your...
EU Warns Iran War Could Trigger European Stagflation
EU sees risk of stagflation shock for Europe from Iran war https://t.co/bWePAfEpHo via @europressos https://t.co/GG5mzV8kVC
Americans Trust Fed to Tame Inflation Amid New Iran Shock
NEW w/ @bencasselman: Throughout a series of economic shocks that pushed up consumer prices in the past five years, Americans maintained faith that the Fed would eventually get inflation under control. The war with Iran presents another shock that is...
Investors Prioritize Earnings, Not Short‑Term Market Noise
What matters in the short run: -Wars -Oil prices -Tariffs -Interest rates -Sentiment -A million other things What matters in the long run: -Earnings Speculators focus on the short run. Investors play the long game. https://t.co/u1oZkcMGCY
VIX +60 Spikes Signal Rare Market Crises Ahead
I'm quite nervous, and I spent 2 hours writing why you should be too. Consider: VIX has gone +60 twice in the last ~1.5 years. Once on a positioning debacle (Aug '24) and then again on the self-inflicted wound of April '25...
Iran Oil Embargo Threatens US Treasury Basis Trade
We need to embargo Iranian oil to end this war. Biggest risk from that isn't catastrophically higher oil prices, but vulnerabilities in US financial markets due to the basis trade in the Treasury market and private credit. Those are our...
Iran Hit Trump's Credibility, D
B of A: “.. If Trump’s credibility is “structurally hit by Iran, then ability to jaw-jaw Wall St & force [foreign direct investment] inflows falls ..” [Hartnett] https://t.co/QF657J7op6
EU Faces Trade Turbulence From US and China
From Liberation to other trade threats is the US with the EU. Now here comes China to the EU. Trade upheaval? Maritime? What lies ahead?
ECB Warns June Rate Hike if War Continues
ECB’s Wunsch says rate hike likely if war isn’t over by June https://t.co/DfO5yOLNdf via @FerroTV @lisaabramowicz1 https://t.co/rkEFK0fHSo
Stocks Move Inversely With Oil in One-Variable Market
One-variable markets overwhelm classic market timing metrics like sentiment, technicals and valuation which are more useful in “normal” times. A composite of oil and rates (oil is driving rates too) tells you all you need to know about the direction...