China More Dependent on Liquid Fuels Than U.S.
China is less exposed to the energy shock than the US, writes @GoldmanSachs It mixes categories & gets the conclusions wrong @RnaudBertrand Electricity ≠ oil & gas Reserves ≠ supply Buffers ≠ independence This crisis is about liquids—and China is more dependent than the U.S That’s a category error #Oil #China #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics
TLT Rally May Mask Inflation Risk, Not a Safe Haven
$TLT can rally in a recession and still be a bad trade if inflation expectations won’t chill. Duration isn’t a safe haven when the bond market stops believing. https://t.co/Rb9uYrLUHk
Navigating Inflation Amid Persistent Supply Chain Uncertainty
This growing supply chain uncertainty plus past few years of above-target inflation makes it increasingly hard to "look through" supply shocks. Here is one way to navigate this inflationary minefield: https://t.co/ihDcQmhv7a
Gold's Surge Signals Return of Safe‑Haven Appeal
Bull Trap or the safe heaven status is back ? Gold has been on the rise for the past few days meanwhile Geopolitical tensions & inflation fears are still on the rise. Let me share my 2 cents on what's happening &...
Supply Chain Shift: How Far Upstream Does De‑Chinaing Reach?
Call it supply chain shifts or derisking. Moving retail and manufacturing supply away from China to other countries. Given the tiers of suppliers and size, how deep into the upstream supply chain does the change go?
Powell Refuses to Entertain Warsh's Rate‑cut Pitch
Powell is asked by an undergrad what he thinks about Kevin Warsh trying to come into the Fed and cut rates in the current environment. Powell: "That’s not something I’m going to swing at, that pitch."
U.S. Corn Inspections Beat Forecasts; Soybeans Lag, China Leads Demand
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn export inspections topped all trade expectations, but soybeans fell slightly below. 46% of the inspected soybean cargoes were destined for China. https://t.co/qtmgF00LfJ
Gold Falls Despite Inflation; Real Rates Drive Moves
Gold can drop hard while inflation headlines stay hot. That’s not ‘gold is broken’. That’s real rates and margin calls. Correlations don’t die. They just take vacations. https://t.co/LB3g5NQWP9
Ground War Guarantees Disaster and Prolonged Insurgency
A ground war isn’t escalation—it’s a recipe for disaster, writes Rabobank's Stefan Koopman Regime change means occupation. Occupation means insurgency. Insurgency means years of loss. Iran isn’t Venezuela. This doesn’t end quickly. #IranWar #Geopolitics #Oil https://t.co/mwwBgWwDU4
Powell Claims Inflation Expectations Still Well Anchored
POWELL: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN WELL ANCHORED - Bloomberg. *Inflation expectations (breakevens), below. "Well anchored?" https://t.co/oWnwOzgMcY
Powell: Fed Will Look Through Energy Shocks, Watch Expectations
Powell on Monday reiterates that the Fed typically look through energy shocks, but he warned that "a critical, essential aspect of that is you have to carefully monitor inflation expectations" This recent piece w/ @bencasselman explains why https://t.co/eabY4kFd9d @nytimes
The Dollar’s Secret Global Journey: Cash Hoards to Stablecoins
💵From Belarus vaults to Miami cash hubs, the U.S. dollar has a global life most of us never see. Former Fed economist, Ruth Judson, joins me on the podcast to unpack global cash hoards, counterfeit networks, and the rise...
Powell Says Iran Dilemma Remains Unresolved, Impacts Unknown
Fed Chair Powell, speaking to a Harvard class, says re: Iran, "we will eventually maybe face the question of what to do here. We're not really facing it yet." "We don't know what the economic effects will be."
Trump’s Policies Collectively Fuel Inflation Despite Temporary Shocks
Yes, the impact on inflation from tariffs is transitory. Yes, the impact on inflation from the oil shock will most likely be transitory. But the backdrop is every single one of Trump's major policies is inflationary: Larger fiscal deficits are inflationary Reducing...
Iran War Creates Unprecedented Oil Shortage, No Spare Capacity
The Iran war has disrupted a greater share of oil supplies than any previous shock. And this time, there is virtually no spare capacity available to make up the gap. @wsj
Fed's Miran: Rate Pause Stifles Job Growth, Misfires on Inflation
Fed’s Miran told us he thinks the Fed is holding back job growth by keeping rates on hold and wrongly fighting the last war (inflation)
Powell Warns Confidence Precedes Grasp of Rising Risks
Powell downplays dissent on the Fed's board and says you would expect disagreement when there are both downside employment and upside inflation risks that are growing. "Confidence is what you feel before you really understand the problem."
Euro Faces Steepest Quarterly Drop Since 2024
Euro is poised for worst quarter since 2024 as oil shock bites https://t.co/Z3N3DfLpbB via @vkaramanis_fx https://t.co/yjLvpdnvVF
Foreign Investment Drops Sharply One Year After Liberation Day
As we approach the 1-year anniversary of "Liberation Day" this week, @sdonnan reports that new foreign investment in the US was actually down significantly last year: https://t.co/s1wGG4RQiu
Hormuz Strait Events Differ From Administration's Claims
What’s really going on in the straight of Hormuz is NOT what the admin is saying
Outbound Traffic Outpaces Inbound; Strait Needs Two‑way Flow
We're managing to squeeze a few additional ships back out of the Strait of Hormuz, but as the Bloomberg chart below highlights far more are leaving (outbound) than returning (inbound). On one level that's obvious (who wants to go *into* the...
Trump Naively Praises Iran’s New Leaders, Predicts Oil Surge
Meanwhile Trump’s messaging is - Irans new leaders are so reasonable & oil will be flowing from everywhere in a few days. 🤦♀️
Energy Price Surge Set to Push US CPI Above 3%
For most of the past three years, falling energy prices had been helping to push the US inflation rate (CPI) lower. But that tailwind will soon become a headwind, with prices of Oil and Gas spiking on a YoY basis. CPI...
Kharg Island's Role in US‑Iran Oil Tactics
Can the US "take the oil" from Iran? Does Kharg Island matter? And what can the GCC do about developing bypass pipelines? I discuss with @BeckyCNN @CNN
Yields Climb, Stocks Slip Despite Oil and VIX Peaks
i'm still looking at March 9th, 2026... 🧐 crude oil peaked... volatility $VIX peaked... but 10-year yields $TNX ignored oil/VIX & still rising... and stocks $SPX ignored oil/VIX & still falling... https://t.co/8DK3OPCAJa
War Triggers Divergent Market Moves: Stocks Fall, Oil Soars
How markets have performed since February 28 (start of the Iran war) 🔴 SP500 -7.5% 🔴 MAG 7 -6.5% 🔴 Gold -13% 🟢 Bitcoin +3% 🟢 (WTI) Oil +53% 🟢 (Brent) Oil +50% 🔴 10 yr US Treasury Yields ~+25–40 bps 🟢 VIX +50% So much winning https://t.co/YpeGMs8fpe
Oil Rises While Rate‑Hike
Oil up across the curve the past week and rate hike odds contracting in the back half of that oil rise feels ominous
Tanzania Tightens Borders to Halt Fuel Smuggling
"Tanzania is strengthening border controls to stop the smuggling of fuel to its fuel-strapped neighbors..." https://t.co/4B3f7ssGsi
Falling
Core running south of headline is a “tell.” Will it catch @federalreserve off sides if they misinterpret the message of demand destruction?
China’s Chance to Cement Great‑power Status Through Diplomacy
While Beijing is likely to remain cautious and avoid being drawn directly into the conflict, the situation nonetheless presents a strategic opening for the Chinese leadership to deliver on its long-standing pledge to “inject stability” into the global system. Should...
Restocking Signals Stockpiling, Not Sustainable Recovery
Does restocking = industrial recovery if no follow through foreseen? Philly Fed Mfg Delivery Times hit 4-year high of 18.9 in March, FUTURE Delivery Times’ -4.7 was 3-year low; 23.6 point spread a -2.0 z-score reinforcing restocking as did falling Expected...
Hormuz Vessel Traffic Plummets From 300s to 13
Straight of Hormuz Traffic over time. Vessel traffic dropped by Mid 300s in late Feb to 13 the last week. Just to give you a sense.... https://t.co/lVJpLM2VFe
Both Rate Cuts and Hikes Demand More Income
Cut rates? Need more income. Hike rates? Need more income as growth prospects get hammered, hitting growth stocks.
China’s 90% Model: Blueprint for Global Market Domination
My new book, China's 90% Model, launched on 17th March. I want to share why I wrote it and why I believe leadership teams should read it together. For sixty years I have advised Fortune 500 CEOs and boards across the globe....
US Secures Rare Earth Processing Amid China Export Dominance
China. Rare earth exports. What about the deal the US made? And the processing of them?
Chinese ULCSs Navigate Hormuz, Hinting at Geopolitical Signal
Two Chinese ultra-large container vessels from COSCO successfully transited Hormuz today ... was that "tribute" to Washington too? Come on. https://t.co/HcXHI5iQsD
Turkey's Overheated Growth Fuels Deficits, Risks Shock
The danger for Turkey is always the same. The current government pushes growth way above the speed limit, which leads to a large current account deficit. Then a shock like high oil prices hits and things run out of control....
Fed Funds Futures Return to Normal, Near‑Term Hike Priced Out
Fed funds futures mostly back to "normal" as the near term rate hike gets priced out. Live chart vs last Thurs. https://t.co/F0dnQCJ9pu
Geopolitics and Oil, Not Bullish Sentiment, Drive Crypto
🚨 Crypto Market Update - What’s Actually Driving Price Right Now: - Bitcoin is trading around $67K–$68K, holding steady after a recent dip toward the mid-$60Ks. - Ethereum is showing relative strength near $2K+, with altcoins starting to bounce as well. But zoom...
Turkey's Reserves Plunge, Echoing 2025 Devaluation After Mayor's Arrest
Turkey's reserve losses rival March 2025 after the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu. They're up in the most recent data point only because the central bank used its gold to get access to more foreign exchange. In March 2025 this ended...
CTAs Near Max Short, Set to Become Buyers
CTAs Near Max Short From GS via BBG: - CTA sold $190B this month and are now short $50B of global equities - Cullen Morgan: “The systematic community is running out of steam” “Asymmetry lives to the upside — over the next month,...
German Inflation Spikes to Year‑high on Iran‑driven Energy Costs
German inflation probably surged to the highest level in more than a year after the Iran war propelled energy costs https://t.co/n3dBXpKCWg https://t.co/lLUlaIWF5t
Mortgage Rates Rebound From Historic Lows to 6.38%
Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US… 1970s: 8.9% 1980s: 12.7% 1990s: 8.1% 2000s: 6.3% 2010s: 4.1% 2020s: 5.3% --- All-Time Low (Jan 2021): 2.65% 2023 Peak (Oct 2023): 7.79% Today's Rate: 6.38% (highest since Sep 2025) https://t.co/EZVocXbneE
Dollar Gains, Yen Rises Amid Middle East Tensions
US Dollar's Advance Continues but Verbal Threats Lift the Yen: The Middle East war rages on. The Houthis have entered the fray and there is risk that it shuts the Bab El-Mandeb Strait. Aluminum and steel facilities have been reportedly...
WTO Talks Collapse, Paving Way for Digital Service Tariffs
"WTO reform talks collapse over US-Brazil standoff" https://t.co/mWuUR2PKbn "The failure to extend the moratorium opened the door to countries to impose tariffs on digital services." https://t.co/uEGCJ2r00s
K‑Shaped Economy Limits Live Events to the Wealthy
In a K-Shaped economy, only those on the arm can afford to see events live and in person...
NRW Inflation Hits 1.2% MoM, Highest Since 2022
Good Morning from #Germany, where #inflation is picking up again on the back of the oil and gas shock. In North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), the country’s most populous state, CPI rose 1.2% MoM; the biggest increase since Sep 2022. Year-on-year, NRW...
Hedge Funds Capitulate: Record US Selloff and Europe Shorts Surge
Hedge Fund Selling Shows Signs of Capitulation From GS via BBG: - “Some signs of capitulation are starting to emerge” - Funds cut global equities for a 6th straight week - Europe macro product shorts are at a 10-year high - CHART: US selling hit...
Mode 5 Services Drive Surge in Agricultural Exports
#tradeXpresso: new econometric evidence found that an increase in #Mode5Services increase agricultural exports: https://t.co/iXzkgkHHzs One day, multilateral trade rules could evolve to follow new business realities: https://t.co/oZ5tuJYjhk
USD Strengthens While JPY Pulls Back Amid BOJ Intervention
$USD is mostly firmer. $JPY is the notable exception. Escalated verbal intervention and news that the BOJ would consider a larger than usual rater move, have encouraged a pullback from around JPY160.40. NY may be less worried about intervention....