Iran Oil Shock Spikes US Inflation Expectations to 2025 Highs
"Unsurprisingly given the Iran war oil shock, consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations surged in March to levels last seen in August 2025, when US consumers awaited more tariff announcements from the US federal government." - The Conference Board https://t.co/k3PvdJqN8M
US‑Israel War Choice Triggers Iran Closing Hormuz
Forget the Western propaganda and spin. The US and Israel engaged in a war of choice against Iran. Iran counterattacks and shuts the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s 8 important chokepoints. DAMAGED PARTIES THROUGHOUT THE WORLD SHOULD SEND A BILL TO TRUMP...
Insights on Managing China’s Rare Earth Export Controls
China's Rare Earth Export Controls Commentary from @Camrjohnson and @pstAsiatech ...excellent comments from Cameron here on navigating China's Rare earth controls...... https://t.co/Ue3q820lYO
Central Banks' Dollar Reserves Inch up, Growth Still Modest
Dollar reserves held by the world's central banks rose a bit in q4 -- But the broad story remains one of modest reserves growth relative to the global economy, or the pace of reserves growth from 03 to 13 1/ https://t.co/B7D4KndRLn
NY Fed Custodial Treasury Holdings Drop Significantly
The FT has a good article on the recent fall in the Treasuries held by the New York Fed's custodial account 1/ https://t.co/q3XrJ1bvlZ
Trump Claims Hormuz Will Reopen Automatically After U.S. Withdrawal
JUST IN: President Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will reopen “automatically” once the U.S. exits
Recession Risk Doubles Normal, yet Stays Under 50%
If you're asking whether 30% recession risk is bad, compare it with the right baseline. Normal is about 14%. So yes, we're still below 50%—but we're also roughly double normal. Seems troubling. https://t.co/2dO5Qjmi3q
China Takes Direct Role in Hormuz Security After Iran War
china involving itself directly in the business of hormuz strait security is an important unintended consequence of the iran war.
Printing Money Fuels Borrowing, Creates Financial Bubbles
When an empire runs out of its own money, it is able to increase the supply of money. However, printing more money causes borrowing to increase creating a financial bubble. I urge you to watch “Principles for Dealing with the...
Yen Support Aims to Cool Dollar, Delay Iran Risk
The vol controllers are definitely trying to strengthen the Yen here to make the US dollar go lower. They know the USD wrecking ball was at a point it was about to wreak havoc if it broke higher. JPY/USD most important currency...
India's Economy Hit Hard by Shipping and Energy Woes
JUST IN: India’s economy is facing “considerable downside” due to shipping disruptions and surging energy costs
ECB's Vujcic: Inflation Expectation Rise Expected
ECB’s Vujcic says the rise in inflation expectations isn’t a surprise https://t.co/2W4QWes7Uu via @jaskuzmanovic https://t.co/QAtXa5k1AS
Chinese Imports Are Large, Stable, and Thus Stabilizing
Hi @Brad_Setser I'd be a fool to argue with you about bofp issues. But what did I say? Are Chinese imports large? Yup. (Could they be larger? Sure but that is a different point). Are Chinese imports stable? Yup. (Might...
China‑Pakistan Peace Plan Aims to End Iran War
china and pakistan release five point peace plan for ending iran war. no mention of us and israel call to restore full passage of strait of hormuz (no iran ability to disrupt/charge tolls). initiative should be welcomed by pretty much everybody.
China Denies Energy Bans, Neighbors Left Out
From Belt and Road to belt tightening: China's neighbours get cold shoulder on energy But so far China has offered only vague statements and has yet to even publicly acknowledge the export bans reported by Reuters and others as it focuses...
China Greets EU Lawmakers, Aims to Mend Strained Ties
China welcomes EU lawmakers' first visit in 8 years as chance to steady strained ties https://t.co/MvadiOAS0R
US Blocks Chinese EVs From Canada Despite Tariff Cut
US won’t allow Chinese EVs from Canada to enter its market, President Donald Trump’s ambassador in Ottawa said, after a January deal in which Prime Minister Mark Carney lowered tariffs on those vehicles Huh?https://t.co/vBvBuGKGqK
Hormuz Closure Threatens Worldwide Economic Collapse, Including US
Hormuz closed==>global economic collapse If you don’t think that affects the US, you need a lesson in reality @thescooter49
Lagarde Confronts Bessent over Iran Damage at G‑7
Lagarde called out Bessent on Iran damage during G-7 video talks https://t.co/cpigdXtjAk via @jrandow https://t.co/bVj2AIUzBq
Fed Aims to Curb Wages to Hit 2% Inflation
The Fed would like this lower to get wage growth back down to 3% or lower to target 2% inflation.
McCormick Resilient Amid Staples Margin Squeeze
Macro: staples face margin squeeze from commodities & tariffs. Key: McCormick volumes resilient; Conagra hit by input inflation. Risk: ongoing commodity headwinds. Trade: long McCormick — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Oil Shock Triggers Rapid Inflation, Demand Collapse, Instability
Maximum risk-off, says @elerianm This isn’t just an energy shock It’s a chain reaction: price → inflation → demand destruction → instability. Markets still don’t see how quickly this cascades. #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Macro #Inflation #Geopolitics
US Defeat Leads to Chaos or China‑led Order
There won't be a TACO, writes @TheMichaelEvery Stop second-guessing a plan you're not going to be told. If the U.S. loses, the outcome is chaos—or a China-led order. Any questions? https://t.co/N9Cl7ZXvUB
Initiating Long Bond Shorts to Bet on Steepening
I am also beginning to leg into long bond shorts against a portion of this position to play for a steepener.
Iranian Drone Strikes Kuwaiti Tanker, Demonstrating Growing Firepower
In Iran's counterattack against the US and Israel, an Iranian drone strike hit a fully loaded Kuwaiti oil tanker near Dubai. Forget the Western propaganda. The Iranians have plenty of firepower. https://t.co/6X12Z8HDBw
Home Prices Slow, Sellers Outnumber Buyers, Prices Set to Drop
US home prices increased 0.9% over the last year, the slowest growth rate since June 2023. There are currently a record 46% more sellers than buyers nationally. Absent manipulation from the Federal Government/Reserve, prices will come down and homes will...
US Tariffs Fluctuated Over 50 Times in Months
"In the months that followed, US tariff policy changed more than 50 times, spanning rate increases, rate decreases, new product exemptions, and new product inclusions." https://t.co/qeG5V7fXwy
Foreign Central Banks Cut UST Holdings to 2012 Low
"Foreign central bank holdings of USTs at NY Fed fall to lowest level since 2012 in wake of Iran war" Via @seaniechaos https://t.co/VIiwJqrZAY
Hormuz Turns Toll Road as VLCC Burns
Hormuz now a pay to pass corridor. From being forced to pay a “toll” to a VLCC attacked and on fire, a day in the maritime mess at the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/ENyO92nyeS
New Strait Strategy Sparks Slugflation, Overvalued Stocks
@jimcramer @carlquintanilla Jim I respectfully disagree with your upbeat assessment (as it relates to equities) of the new strategy to cede control of the Strait. The knock on consequences of this new strategy are broad, inflationary and economic dulling. The policy...
Ukraine's Drone Attacks Slash Russian Oil Exports
This is something to keep an eye on. Ukraine has been damaging Russian oil export capacity, via drone. The country's seaborne shipments last week were the lowest since 2022, but unclear if it's the start of a longer trend. ...
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 83%, Calls for Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 83% against the USD in the past year. VENEZUELA’S TOP PRIORITY = OFFICIAL DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/AUN4GLdvgF
Iran War Triggers Structural Oil Price Upgrade
I don't see any reasonable scenario in which the oil market exits the Iran War in a healthier, more secure condition than where things stood before the war. It's a structural go-forward upgrade to oil pricing, at this stage it's just...
India's Q3 Current Account Deficit Hits $13bn, FY Total $30bn
India's Current Account Deficit for the Oct-Dec 2025 quarter came in at $13bn. This includes the "tariff" quarter now, and it's not that much. For the full 9 months of this FY, it's a $30bn deficit. Source: RBI https://t.co/SZ3Ufjjzfz
From Oil Importer to Exporter, US Still Meddles
20+ years ago we were net importers of and oil and gas and therefore we decided to meddle in the Middle East to protect shipping lanes, etc. Today we are next exporters of oil and gas. I thought that would have...
Mexico's Labour Market Skewed Toward Informal Employment
Mexico’s dualistic labour market is weighted towards informality. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/ZRjXpKyZBq
China Extends Fuel Export Ban, Offers Minimal Relief
China has extended its fuel export ban for another month to April. There is now talk of letting a small amount of fuel out to countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and the Maldives. But the shipments would be only ~5%-10%...
EU-India FTA Boosts Indian Aluminium, CBAM Still Caps Gains
The EU-India FTA may help Indian aluminium exports, but CBAM still limits the real upside. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/eu-india-fta-could-improve-indian.html
Trump Prioritized Fun over Economic Fallout From Tariffs
But the tariffs may have screwed the economy, but Donald Trump had lots of fun imposing them, and that is what really matters.
War Turmoil Drives Oil and Dollar Consolidation
Mixed War News Keeps Oil Firm and the Greenback Consolidating: War developments pulled in both directions, leaving investors on edge On the one hand, Iran struck an oil tanker, carrying Kuwait oil, in port in Dubai. On the other hand,...
Global Stocks End Month in Brutal Decline
A Bloomberg table on a brutal month for stock markets around the world. #economy #markets #stocks #investing #investora
Rising Bond Yields Squeeze Bitcoin Demand and Liquidity
The bond market is doing more damage to Bitcoin than the war. 10-year TIPS yield hit 2.02% — up 30bps since Iran. Highest real return on govt bonds since June 2025. When you earn 2%+ risk-free, holding a zero-yield asset...
Global Market Trend Shifts: ACWI Rolls Over, Lows Outpace Highs
The global trend just cracked... ACWI is rolling over. And global new lows are now > new highs. That’s a change in character. https://t.co/h5jwZpfzt5
Higher Fertility Slows Growth Without Immigration, Cuts Labor Participation
🤔 ✍️ @voxeu without immigration, “higher fertility would depress GDP per capita growth for roughly 50 years.” 💥more births would likely lower force participation among women & older workers. https://t.co/VubvO2dK8V
Iran Attacks Ship, POTUS Okays Operation Wind‑down; Oil Steady
Iran struck a ship with Kuwaiti oil in a Dubai port and press reports POTUS told aides can consider winding down operation without securing Strait of Hormuz. Oil remains firm. Mkts uncertain. Large euro options at $1.15 expire today...
Pakistan, China Foreign Ministers Meet Amid US‑Iran Deal Rumors
The Pakistani and Chinese foreign affairs ministers have met today in Beijing, according to Chinese state media. The meeting comes as **rumours** abound that Beijing could play a role as "guarantor" of any US-Iran deal.
Tariffs Served as Political Theatre, Not Economic Policy
The tariffs weren't trade policy, IMHO, they were tariff theatre. There were no specific goals, no studies, not even the slightest economic thought behind their design. > Is it a category error to evaluate them as economic policy. >They max'd political...
Market Prices Now Directly Drive Economic Reality
The market may not be the economy, but today, the economy is the market. The speed by which changes in market prices move into the economy has never been faster. #MarkToMarketEconomy
Trump's Trade Shock Spurs Global Free‑Trade Alliances
I presented my forthcoming eBook, World War Trade, in Paris last week. Here is the first coverage i've seen 💪 ✍️Guillaume de Calignon @gcalignon « Le choc douanier de Donald Trump pousse le reste du monde à se rapprocher .... les pays...
China Climbs Value Chain yet Still Dominates Low‑end Markets
One thing that's really impressive is China moving up the manufacturing value chain, while still absolutely dominating the low end. As @Camrjohnson has pointed out (and industry data confirms), China still absolutely dominates in areas like Christmas ornaments.