Markets Kick Off Q2 Bullish on Yield Drop, Asia Gains
Markets looking to start 2Q 2026 on positive note: •US stocks ended 1Q last day sharply higher. Led by Mag 7 stocks up as much as 7%. •10 UST yield softened to 4.29% •S Korea and Japan up 3-4% early morning •Gold higher perhaps expecting USD to fall in tandem with yield. •USDJPY <159 now (it was peak 160.3 on Friday) Markets pricing in Trump and US about to give on Iran, apparently.
Refinery Constraints, Not Oil Flow, Drive Supply Squeeze
Even if oil flows recover, refineries are the real squeeze, says Macquarie's Vikas Dwivedi Refinery run cuts have tightened product supply. It will take 4-6 weeks to recover after Hormuz opens to full transit. And there's uncertainty about refinery damage.
Europe's Inflation Surge Proves It's Not Transitory
If you think Europe's Inflation Re-Acceleration is "transitory", we're on the other side of you https://t.co/jj0TOw0ldU
Supermarket Inflation Drops to 2.3% YoY, up 48
BofA Nielsen: Supermarket inflation fell to 2.3% YoY in March +47.9% on the 7yr stack https://t.co/Jlz9FUMWAG
Risk Assets Surge as Iran Conflict Outlook Impro
BofA: Risk assets rallied today on the potential resolution of the Iran war. President Trump stated that the US “won’t be there” to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz Oil prices are less enthusiastic https://t.co/qqPBVmhvPG
Greece Upgraded to MSCI Developed Market Status
Greece has been promoted to a developed market by MSCI, no longer emerging, in the big leagues now. Congrats to @psarofagis as well as John Stamos. https://t.co/BE1V9ht86u
Rising Input Costs Challenge Inflation and Growth
Soooo are higher input costs a concern as an inflation or growth hit? Hard to keep up...
Trump and Hegseth’s Unprecedented Rhetoric Harms US Diplomatic Standing
The langauge that Trump and Hegseth use is unprecedented. How they think any sort of diplomatic relationship can be made this way is a mystery. The damage they are causing to the US’ reputation is incredible
Rising Energy Costs Outperform Tariffs in Reducing Trade Deficit
Higher energy prices will do far more to balance the trade deficit than tariffs could ever dream of.
Trump Claims Leaving Iran Will Lower Gas Prices
Asked how he'll bring down gas prices, President Trump says: "All I have to do is leave Iran, & we'll be doing that very soon." Trump also just reiterated his view that securing passage through the Strait of Hormuz is a...
Hormuz Closure Could Push Oil to $300 Barrel
If Hormuz remains close the price of oil and refined products could rise to $200, $250, $300 per barrel or any number.
Latam’s Pivotal Growth Cycle Outshines US Stocks
Ask yourself… What would you rather own at this juncture: Latin America or US stocks? Latam is entering one of the most important cycles in its history, in my view. I couldn’t be more excited to be deeply involved as an investor...
Seeking Specifics on Balance of Payments Support
@adam_tooze what do you have in mind specifically with respect to balance of payment support?
UK Faces Fuel Shortage Amid US‑Israel/Iran Energy Crisis
Prices at the pump? UK running out of fuel? What should the government and the public do in the face of the US-Israel/Iran energy crisis? https://t.co/dVMIfX1kI1 via @Channel4News with @mattfrei
Basra‑Aqaba Pipeline Would Pay for Itself in Months
1 million bpd Basra-Aqaba pipeline costing $9 billion would have paid for itself in 3 months in the current crisis. And given Baghdad some resilience against closure of the Strait. Exactly why the Iran-aligned parties blocked it over nonsense arguments about...
Japan, France Eye Rare‑earth Pact, but Production Needed
Japan, France mull rare earths deal to cut China reliance A deal won't cut anything, only actual production of qualified materials and end products like magnets, at cost and scale.... https://t.co/IQ6N5twHWN
Four‑Week Hormuz Closure Halts Critical Petrochemical Shipments
I can’t believe the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for four weeks. It seems like so much longer than that. Scarcely do I remember the last time petrochemicals, urea, helium and other fundamental components could safely transit to key...
Trump’s Illegal Tariffs Bankrupt Firms, Block Billions in Refunds
Infuriating @wsj piece on the total cluster Trump's illegal "emergency" tariffs (& resistance to easy/automatic refunds) have created for US companies owed billions of ill-gotten dollars. Some face bankruptcy; others are giving up on refunds entirely. Theft, plain & simple.
European Expat
I live in the center of Europe. I consider myself a European. But I spent 18 years of my life in US and my wife and children are all American citizens. I am ashamed of how Europe has behaved with regard...
Equities Drop 10% Amid Oil Shock Uncertainty
Equities have been following the “oil shock” script for now, with the major global averages down around 10%. From here, things will depend on whether this turns out to be a quick 1990 Gulf War spike or a longer shock...
Foreign Central Banks Dump US Treasuries Amid Iran Conflict
"Foreign central banks sell US Treasuries in wake of Iran war" https://t.co/B4oQiLaXmS "Foreign central banks are selling US bonds at a time when the Treasury market is already under pressure as traders worry that the Middle East conflict could drive...
Geopolitical Tensions, Not Jobs Data, Drive Mortgage Rates
Does jobs week matter for mortgage rates as the Iran war intensifies? https://t.co/eNWu4sPUwS via @YouTube
Gold and Treasuries Funding Liquidity Amid Oil Backwardation
With only one ship passing through the Strait last week, the oil curve has remained heavily backwardated. Looking at the correlations below, we see that gold and bonds have been positively correlated (with both under pressure), and Bitcoin and the...
Report on Global Imbalances Useful Yet Lacks Hard‑Hit Insight
A few reactions to the Bai, Gopinath, Rey and Weber report on global imbalances commissioned by the French G-7 Presidency. It makes a number of important and useful points, but could have been much more hard hitting 1/ https://t.co/tGPWHoSwYs
US‑China Trade Collapse: Prospects for Recovery?
Really honored to join the National Committee on US-China Relations to chat about my latest research: U.S.-China Trade Collapsed. Can It Recover? 📺 https://t.co/WPRwLNqS2z https://t.co/DATDHcySKT
Rising Rates and Concentration Risk Drive Market Pullback
With the headlines lurching from one end to another, it’s not getting any easier to find clarity on how or when the conflict in the Middle East will end or what damage the ongoing Hormuz bottleneck will inflict on the...
EU Eyes Reviving Emergency Energy Rules Amid Iran Price Shock
The EU will consider reopening a set energy measures used after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine as the bloc seeks to contain a fresh price shock tied to the Iran war https://t.co/pGEqjvd4Uf via @johnainger https://t.co/oxM0l6weH8
Market Narratives Flip Fast; Update Your Thesis.
Q1 lesson: Cuts → Hikes. Stable oil → $112. Safe → Risky. Narratives flip faster than positioning. If you're still running January's thesis in Q2, you're not wrong in theory. You're just wrong in the market that actually exists. --- https://t.co/c8qhOLV3nI
Foreign Central Banks Slash Treasury Holdings to 2012 Low
Foreign central banks have cut their holdings of Treasuries at the New York Fed to the lowest level since 2012. The selling has come as oil importers like Turkey, Thailand and India raise cash through asset sales to prop up...
Systematic Strategies for Inflation‑Driven Market Regime Shift
With the recent inflation shock and a rapidly changing market landscape, it’s a good time to think more systematically. On our latest @excessreturnpod, we’re joined by @AahanPrometheus to do just that. We cover: - inflation and energy dynamics - shifting expected returns - trend following -...
U.S. Labor Market Slows to Low‑Hire, Low‑Fire Cycle
The labor market can be "roughly steady" with a lotta hiring matched by a lotta firing, or few fires matched by few hires. The U.S. is moving into a low hire-low fire equilibrium, which really hurts folks—the young, those (re-)entering...
April’s £216 Household Hit; Bigger Bills Ahead
Awful April costs households £216 — but the worst is yet to come - The Times and The Sunday Times https://t.co/tGe0bSY5CX
President Regrets Appointing Central Banker Who Defied Rate Cuts
Wild story: President appoints someone to the central bank recommended by his own finance minister. The appointee resists the president's demands to approve bigger rate cuts, and now the president says he "stupidly" followed the minister's advice, leading to "the...
US Industrial Production Flat, Not Soaring.
My friend Thematic Markets gets this wrong -- US industrial production (using the series that leaves out chips, which is still benefitting from Biden era policies) is flat not way up 1.x https://t.co/pYA4LZEt8F
New US LNG Capacity Too Small to Replace Qatar Losses
LNG production in Qatar, normally ~80 mm tonnes, has been effectively OFFLINE since March 2. The new Golden Pass LNG export terminal in the U.S. will add only 18mm tonnes at full capacity. NEW SUPPLY CAN’T OFFSET WAR-DRIVEN LOSSES. https://t.co/tVmip8DsaM
Yuan's Global Reserve Share Declines Over Five Years
Well, there are a lot of meanings of global reserves currency that go beyond the currency held in formal foreign exchange reserves. But the yuan's share of reserves has actually slipped over the last 5 years 1/2 https://t.co/h07pcXMaYn
Sanctions Crumble as Iran Conflict Fuels Oil Crisis
Step 1: US and Israel attack Iran. Step 2: Iran counterattacks and shuts the Strait of Hormuz. Step 3: Oil prices soar. Step 4: To mitigate the damage, sanctions are lifted on Russia’s shadow fleet. Conclusion: Good. The ill-conceived sanctions regime is finally falling...
King Charles' Washington State Visit Sparks Anticipated Debate
Plenty to talk about when King Charles goes to Washington for a state visit next month: https://t.co/ZAB8zSFGx3
Powell's Reassurance Drops Mortgage Rates Despite Oil Surge
Mortgage rates are lower today thanks to Jerome Powell. Why? Because he put fears of Fed rate hikes to bed during a Q&A session with Harvard students yesterday. Despite surging oil prices, he said “We feel like our policy’s in a...
Rate‑Hike Odds Surge, Triggering Massive Market Unwind
January: everyone positioned for rate cuts. Now: hike odds above 50%. That's the largest positioning reversal in years — and the mechanics of unwinding a crowded consensus take months, not weeks. Every hot inflation print, every hawkish Fed signal triggers another exit from...
Rate‑cut Bets Collapse, Biggest Positioning Reversal in Years
January: everyone was long rate cuts. Now: hike odds >50%. That's not a rotation. That's the largest positioning reversal in years — and the unwind isn't finished. $SPY -3.4%. $QQQ -4.2%. The price tells you where we are in that unwind. --- https://t.co/mDbRSIwQT2
Iran and Russia Profit as Oil Prices Surge Amid War
A month into this war: Iran is still exporting oil & to more customers Iran is making more money for its oil because prices are up Iran has effectively installed a tollbooth to enter and exit the Persian Gulf Russia is making more...
Fed Pledges Policy Actions to Sustain Low Inflation Expectations
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid: Inflation expectations have been low because the central bank has previously acted to make sure inflation will stay low. "It is now our job to follow through with policy actions that validate those expectations."
Iran Still Controls Hormuz, Selectively Filtering Tankers
"The regime has lost control" is wrong @EYakoby Iran is allowing more ships through Hormuz selectively It's sorting tankers by friends who pass for free, neutral parties that pay, and enemies that don't pass There may be a tactical uptick in flows,...
California's Middle East Oil Imports Drop Below 30%
"Previously"?? Like in 2015? In 2025, less than 30% of oil imported into CA was from the Middle East. It's been less than 50% of imports since at least 2017.
Sticky Inflation Pushes Rate Cuts to Q3/Q4
Well, the good news in all of this, assuming it's actually coming to a close, is it hasn't lasted long enough to do material impact to the labor market. The bad news is we probably locked in stickier inflation which...
Gold Surges as War De‑escalation Rumors Emerge
Gold rallies on rumors of a potential off-ramp in a war. Markets never cease to surprise me…🤣🤣
Oil $100 Baseline Becomes Permanent After Iran Threat
WTI pre-market: $101.84. Brent: $108. Up 47% for the quarter. Iran is demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint for 20% of global oil supply. That's not a negotiating position. It's a line in the sand with no realistic...
Iran's Hormuz Claim Locks in Permanent War Premium
$CL WTI pre-market: $101.84. $BNO Brent: $108. Iran demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. That's not a negotiating position. It's a non-starter — and everyone knows it. The war premium is permanent until proven otherwise. --- https://t.co/DwGuXTrsgJ
Russia's 2024 Growth Outlook Cut to 0.8%
MOSCOW, March 31 (Reuters) - The Russian economy will grow by 0.8% this year, down from a forecast of 1% a month ago, according to a Reuters poll of 16 analysts on Tuesday, echoing an earlier government announcement that the...