US Bond Market Endures Record 68‑Month Drawdown
The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 68 months, by far the longest in history. https://t.co/iK6GQkwPgq
US Oil Output Stays Flat Despite War‑Driven Price Surge
U.S. oil production after the war ends U.S. oil production is unlikely to rise much as a result of the war with Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz unless the interruption of oil supplies and rise in prices proves...
US Data Center Growth Stalls Over Imported Equipment Shortage
Almost half of US data centers planned for 2026 are expected to be delayed or canceled. One big reason is the shortage of electrical equipment, such as transformers, switchgear and batteries. US doesn't have manufacturing capacity, forcing it to rely...
Post‑COVID Inflation Surge: More Prices Exceed 3%
New Fed paper showing that underlying inflation dynamics have shifted since COVID. Across countries, a greater share of prices are now rising >3% per year - partly because wage inflation has been persistently higher. https://t.co/1PELesrnc2
Defense Spending Surge Fuels Unseen Innovation Arms Race
I'm proud to launch Sage Road's sixth report, which focuses on "Defense Innovation" (read the Executive Summary here: https://t.co/rRtYxEUTE9). Accelerating global defense spending is poised to run headlong into accelerating innovation with market participants underestimating the breadth of implications to...
Hormuz Closure Threatens Helium, Driving up Chip Prices
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is choking off about a third of the world’s global supply of helium. Helium is a critical input in semiconductor manufacturing used to cool chipmaking tools. LESS HELIUM = FEWER CHIPS = MORE EXPENSIVE CHIPS....
Milei's Critics Must Abandon Poverty Metric for Real Gains
When Milei took office in Argentina, critics routinely pointed to the poverty rate as proof he was failing (despite slowing inflation, an improved balance sheet, & stronger growth). Still lots of problems there, ofc, but his critics are gonna need...
China's Trade Reliance Makes Sea Lane Disruptions Catastrophic
It might be. But this overlooks chinas dependence on trade. Iran and the gulf sell oil, at any price. They are critical inputs. China’s much larger trade by a country mile is about open sea lanes, no choke points, and...
Undervalued RMB Functions Like Massive Trade Tariff
Good Setser thread on a recent report on global imbalances. By the way, if the RMB is indeed 20-30% undervalued, that is the functional equivalent of a 25-43% tariff on all imports and a 20-30% subsidy on all exports. The Trump...
Global Trade Thrives Despite US Tariffs, Economy Resilient
"The global economy turns out to be more resilient than we had feared" [ed. note: not all of us] "global trade in goods, the products targeted by the tariffs, has been strikingly robust" "While its direct exports to the US came under...
Saudi's 2025 Break‑even Oil Price Stays Near $100
Petrodollar (or lack of them) update: Saudi 2025 balance of payments data is out, and the Saudi "current account" break even oil price (based on ~ 7 mbd in exports of crude/ product) is still right around $100 a barrel 1/
Both Government and Private Sector Fabricate Inflation Metrics
"In America the government makes a fake inflation index and then the private sector makes up an even more faker one' https://t.co/qzfytmzG0V
US‑Israel Iran Conflict Boosts Chinese Exporters’ Global Market Share
Ah, well, nevertheless: "The US and Israel’s war on Iran is expected to help China’s exporters gain global market share from rivals in countries hit harder by high energy prices and supply chain shocks" https://t.co/FzaZnRiklq https://t.co/oA3t3jaaS4
Rising Input Costs Push Index Up, Inflation Near 4%
This index "has now risen by nearly 20 points in just two months, as higher energy prices have come amid rising costs of other raw materials. On past form, it now looks consistent with headline inflation rising to 4% in...
Copper Demand Set to Surge Across Infrastructure, Tech, and Defense
Road Ahead 1. Data Centers, $2.5T Capex. 2. $2T US Power Grid Rebuild - copper, aluminum. 3. Currency Debasement: USA $1.9% Defecit / 6.2% of GDP vs 3% average last 40 years. 4. Re-Build: Gaza, Iran, Ukraine, Israel - copper. 5. Robotics -...
Trump’s Coffee Tariff Inflates U.S. Prices Like a Sales Tax
Thank Trump's 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee for the outrageous price you’re paying for your morning brew. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = A SALES TAX ON AMERICANS. https://t.co/o9JpKTsjDV
BofA Sees Near‑4% PCE, Higher Prices Through 2027
BofA on inflation outlook: "Headline PCE is now expected to surge ... close to 4% this quarter. ... we now project price levels at the end of next year to be 50bp above our prior forecast ... i)higher food inflation...
Supply‑chain Disruptions Are only Now Fueling Inflation
…and the inflation from global supply chain breakdowns that have already begun have likely only just begun being reflected. 😳
Four Key Signals Reveal True State of Oil Markets
This is a great read about how to think about what's happening with oil and Hormuz - and ultimately with the world economy. The headlines are all over the place, but these 4 signals can tell you what's really happening.
US May Waive Iran Sanctions to Enable Hormuz Toll Payments
Iran is still heavily sanctioned by the US, which complicates the payment of any tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, both today or in a future where Tehran maintains some control of the Strait Wouldn't be surprised to see...
Commodities Up 21% YoY in May, Rising Since 2020
at your Easter dinner this weekend, when they tell you that commodities have been surging because of the Iran war, just tell'em they're wrong and commodities have been rising since 2020... in fact, May '24, they reached an unusually quick...
Salient Prices Like Eggs Drive Inflation Expectations
.@johnarnold it is not only tone deaf, it ignores the important academic work on “salient prices.” People attach more meaning to things they buy frequently. Take eggs, less than 1% of the consumer basket, big impact on inflation expectations. Gas...
Unprecedented Job Losses Exceed Great Recession Streak
"We've never seen anything like this…even during the Great Recession the most we had seen was 11 consecutive. It's not NO jobs created in 2025. Jobs were DESTROYED." https://t.co/TEyHYMKiKA #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/7AjP28JOhM
Iran Rejects Trump's Claim, Strait of Hormuz Stays Closed
Iranian Republic Media: The Strait of Hormuz will not open based on Trump's absurd claims: Bloomberg
USDA's Power Amplified Amid Emerging Global Food Crisis
The USDA is one of the most powerful institutions affecting domestic and global food supplies. Especially given the global food and commodity crisis that’s emerging… Perhaps not the best time for crass porn puns
Post‑crisis: Labor Market Still Harsher for Low‑skill Workers
The crisis is over. Can we go back to understanding the labor market as generally worse for less educated workers now?
Podcast Deep Dive: Market Outlook on Gold, Rates, Tech
We were overdue for a "What Are We Doing" @OnTheTapePod episode. @Seawolfcap & @VD718 join me and we discuss our thoughts on the markets, including $GLD $FNMA $XLE $GOOG #RATES #USDEBT #FED & more. We are spending more time over on...
Iran Conflict Scenarios Push Oil Prices Above Pre‑War Levels
My rough Iran War scenario probabilities over the next month are: 🌮 40% unilateral TACO, Iran maintains some hybrid control of Strait 🪖 30% boots on the ground, strait stays blocked, spiked risk of more upstream attacks, global economy withers 🤷🏻♂️...
Oil Shocks Fade; Markets Typically Rebound Within Months
Military conflicts and oil shocks are nothing new. We’ve been through this many times. Yes, they create uncertainty and shake things up, but historically oil has come back down within a few months, and stocks often start moving higher not...
Household Wealth-to-Income Ratios Near Historic Peaks Globally
Household net worth as a share of income stands close to all time highs in the US, Japan and Australia --Goldman https://t.co/lb65bEX2Ii
US Imports Return to Pre‑Election Levels Despite Front‑Running Effects
I think Marvin (@ThematicMarkets) is reasoning too much from accounting identities here -- and still not adjusting enough for the enormous impact front running had on all US external variables in 2025. Let's start with imports -- they are basically back...
Trump Threatens NATO Exit as Iran War Looms
Trump Says U.S. May Exit Iran War Soon and Threatens to Quit NATO, as Oil Crisis Escalates. A global economic mess ahead? Is Putin smiling if US leaves NATO? https://t.co/wbm30dgf7R
Iran’s New Leader, Same Regime, Strait Reopens
Probably not important bc who sweats the details in war or diplomacy... but Iran's current president, Masoud Pezeshkian, assumed office in July 2024. New Supreme Leader, same president (and regime) as before. Also this morning we appear focused on the Strait reopening...
Panama-Flagged Vessels Lead China Detentions, Possible Retaliation
Panama-Flagged Ships Dominate China Detentions in Sudden March Spike. A coinkydink? Or China payback for the Panama supreme court stopping CK Hutchinson terminal acquisitions in Panama? https://t.co/M5mCoJi0jn
Korea Posts $25B March Trade Surplus on Chip Boom
Crazy March trade surplus for Korea ($25b a month, $300b annualized) Strong chip exports continued. And presumably a bunch of expected tankers didn't arrive so fuel demand was met out of inventory 1/2 https://t.co/NGcasg9i4v
Fed President Signals Rate Hold, Open to Adjustments
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem: “I expect the current setting of the policy rate will remain appropriate for some time.” "I could support additional easing if a greater risk of a weakening labor market becomes apparent, provided inflation and inflation...
White House Policies Hit Your Wallet Directly
Policy feels abstract right up until it lands in your budget. That’s the point: the stakes are real because White House decisions can show up as pricier gas, a bigger health bill, and higher prices on imported goods. https://t.co/JkEALd3F4O
Post-War Iran: Uncertain Oil Disruption Potential
One day the war will end. Iran has been crippled and may be further bombed back to the Stone Age. But once the war ends either Iran will be able to disrupt global oil flow or it won't be...
Geopolitical Risks Are Temporary; Stick to Fundamentals
Geopolitical Risk Is A Recurring But Temporary Driver Of Markets ➡️While recent developments such as rising oil prices, evolving tariff policy, persistent inflation... can heighten investor anxiety, the more pressing challenge for advisors is helping clients distinguish between short-term noise...
China’s 90% Model Threatens Global Industries
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐓𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐃𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐲 𝐘𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐲 In my latest interview on @ndtv , India's leading English-language business news channel, I break down 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚'𝐬 90% 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥: 𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐠𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. China builds...
U.S. Must Rethink Oil‑Security Ties with Diversifying Gulf States
Great new @ForeignAffairs essay by @ColumbiaUEnergy’s @ProfessorKaren about how post-war, the historic “oil for security” relationship is no longer tenable, & US needs to update its approach to Gulf states that are rapidly diversifying their economies https://t.co/Nmszm8a5bu
Missing Trump‑Xi Meeting Fuels Growing Economic Tensions
Every week that passes without a face-to-face meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping gives fresh grievances time to accumulate. That growing list is testing both sides’ ability to keep ties steady between the world’s top economies. https://t.co/o2VydKr70h
China Poised to Weather Hormuz Oil Shutdown
How China can survive without the Strait of Hormuz The world’s largest importer of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is, paradoxically, also one of the best placed to weather the waterway’s closure. https://t.co/YczOlt8T4v
Watch Key Levels for Macro‑Driven Risk‑Off Moves
Here’s is my🔥 #stickynote for April 1, 2026: Macro-heavy session with data + Fed speakers — watching for risk-off tone and reaction to key levels 👀 🧠 Macro Focus: Oil strength + macro catalysts could keep pressure on equities. Expect moves driven by...
Pakistan Enlists China for Iran Talks, Spotlighting Beijing's Sway
Pakistan brings China into Iran mediation, unveils 5-point plan Document highlights Beijing's diplomatic clout; doubts linger about its motives https://t.co/df7SyRHFYz via @NikkeiAsia
Energy Shock Accelerates Global Shift to Electrification
One month in to the war, some people are ready to call it. This energy shock will accelerate the world to a cleaner, more electrified future. “Electrification will be seen as the shock absorber.” https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/opinion/oil-crisis-iran-electric-solar.html
China Poised to Capture Market as Iran War Reshapes Trade
Iran war gives Chinese exporters chance to grab global market share Ample oil reserves and renewables growth make manufacturing sector more resilient than rivals https://t.co/Zm287YiQYa via @ft
Confidence Shifts Amid Iran Tensions and K‑Shaped Economy
ICYMI - Here's the video of my conversation yesterday with @BloombergRadio's @carolmassar and @timsteno where we discussed consumer and investor confidence amid the backdrop of Iran and the K-Shaped Economy. https://t.co/cW6ySEZJA8
Nike CFO Emphasizes Controlling What We Can Amid Volatility
“We also recognize that the environment around us has become increasingly dynamic, and we could experience unplanned volatility due to the disruption in the Middle East, rising oil prices and other factors that could impact either input costs or consumer...
Long‑term Stability with China Hinges on Rare Earth Access
Stability and continuity with China will require continued access to rare earths and magnets, for at least a decade and beyond...