Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Capital goes where it’s welcome. Countries that embrace crypto will likely see the most economic growth in the next decade.
Deposits are US banks’ primary funding source; they are typically cheap, abundant, and slow to reprice. Many households keep substantial balances in bank accounts that pay little or no interest. https://t.co/jTcFqJyFST
All OECD countries other than Israel now have a total fertility rate below 2 https://t.co/jvolvyD3YP
The European Commission has launched another attempt to reform capital markets, rebranded as the ‘Savings and Investment Union’. https://t.co/UQ2DvCgG3f
2025 saw a modest recovery of venture capital investment in Europe after three years of decline, with a total of €66.2 billion deployed. Even so, this was only 22% of the amount invested in the US, despite the two economies...
My take on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz: “The Iranians recently shot a warning shot across the bow. They indicated that they can shut the straits down and cut the world off from 20% of its supply.” https://t.co/sbb1tuQO4T
President Donald Trump said he would impose a 10 per cent “global tariff” above existing US levies, using section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 which allows the president to set import restrictions temporarily for up to six months. https://t.co/CX64ipBtzT
U.S./Iran: Oil Prices and the War Risk Premium Oil traders currently assign a low probability to a war between the United States and Iran that results in significant and sustained disruption to exports from Iran and other countries in the Persian...
US GDP growth SLOWED to a MISERABLE 1.4% in Q4 2025. Forget the AI, Silicon Valley, and Trump hype on the economy. The US economy grew at 2.2% for 2025 -- down from 2.8% in 2024. SPINMEISTER TRUMP HAS A LITTLE PROBLEM...
The rollout of reciprocal tariffs last April caused an alarming and sharp fall in the Dollar, so why isn't today's Supreme Court ruling causing the Dollar to rise? The April fall in the Dollar was about policy chaos in DC,...
British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Breaks Range Lows – Can 200DMA Hold? https://t.co/yX3huN7zHS Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/ZKGEjVWqUH
In this week's #OnInvesting, @LizAnnSonders and I talk about Fed minutes, mixed signals on inflation & unemployment, and weakness in the survey data. Liz Ann & @KevRGordon discuss the latest GDP report and the impact of tariffs, AI-driven investment and...
An equity risk premium which has recently turned into an equity risk discount. (Historically, an awful launnching pad for future returns) Policy turmoil, slowing domestic economic growth, sticky inflation, circular financing deals in AI (holding up the econ data) and traditional...
🚨New report from API 🚨: Energy & Inflation 2025 Highlights: - As a share of disposal income, energy expenditures have fallen since 1984 - In inflation adjusted terms, gasoline prices were lower in q4 2025 than in 1976 - Fuel costs have been declining...
Markets flat near the highs + valuations near the upper end of history. Tom Martin of Globalt breaks down what that actually means—and what could sustain (or break) it in 2026! Our latest episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast: https://t.co/nA9bmU87rf...
For more than 5 years, Brazil has been unable to hit its inflation target. Now it wants to buy a million Bitcoin over the next 5 years for a National Bitcoin Reserve. Until Brazil hits its inflation target of 3.00%/yr, it should NOT...
Trump Tariffs (most of them, not all) struck down by SCOTUS. Immediate reaction on stocks: •US higher (Mag7 up led by GOOGL +4%). •Europe higher: London, Paris, Amsterdam at ATH. •Asia likely positive, but on the contrary the front loadings...
While 15% is close to what many countries ended up negotiating with Trump, he invoked IEEPA to threaten much higher rates, providing powerful leverage. If 15% is an effective ceiling (outside 301/232 actions), that changes the bargaining dynamic.
A fun(?) 🧵 on how nerdy government accounting rules had a big impact on Q4 GDP. And how they reflect how wasteful the 43-day government shutdown was. TL;DR: Small reduction in nominal federal spending in Q4. But a big decline in...
Here is my write up of all the data and the Supreme Court ruling on tariff legality. https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2026/december-2025-pce-and-gdp.html
The @nytimes #SCOTUS tariff decision blog is a thing to behold. Reporting and graphics from around the world --including, of course, Canada. Head over there for your live updates: https://t.co/fO09GrdVlu
Once Xi shores up his political base at home, I expect China to go back to buying cheaper commodities elsewhere, as the U.S. is not the low-cost producer of grain and oilseeds. #oatt
The United States has a window of opportunity to sell commodities to China over the next 12 - 18 months while President Xi tries to shore up his support at home, while seeking favorable access to the U.S. consumer market...
Only China had put retaliatory tariffs on U.S. grain and oilseeds, and China is now buying U.S. commodities at a higher prices than the alternatives (without the tariffs) to get more favorable treatment from Trump on other issues. #oatt
Geopolitics expert Alexander Mercouris on Chinese and Russian aid to Iran: “There are all kinds of rumors and reports ... that Iran is receiving important military aid from China and from Russia as it prepares for the conflict with the US.”...
The Trump administration is sure to use other authorities (122 maybe, 232, 301) to raise tariffs now that the court has struck down the IEEPA tariffs. But striking down IEEPA still matters, particularly for China/other countries that aren't heavily hit by...
With tensions high around Iran, here's an updated table of major geopolitical events and how the stock market did after. Yes, some of them definitely caused volatility, but the longer-term median returns are fairly normal. https://t.co/477EvHtgAn
The inflation adjusted dollar is only down ~ 10% v its q4 2024 high (it was driven up by the initial Trump trade). The inflation adjusted dollar is more or less back where it was in 2023 and...
My write up coming soon of GDP, inflation, employment and the Supreme court ruling IEEPA tariffs illegal. Curb your enthusiasm. Refunds are not guaranteed & the logistics to quote the Court are a “mess.” Moreover, the admiration has other levers to...
Venezuela sits on vast offshore natural gas reserves that could be developed quickly. But NOTHING will happen as long as US sanctions are imposed on Venezuela. It's time to LIFT SANCTIONS. https://t.co/RrlrOxXGDy
We don’t talk about banks much any more, but Trump 2.0 has been good to them, notably Citi the principal casualty of 2008. More on this and other fascinating topics in the Chartbook Top links today. https://t.co/saPWxJgDju
We're fucked. Buy gold. Buy bitcoin. Buy land. Buy guns and ammo. The dollar is toast.
When the CPI-PCE spread heads lower (the spread is cyclical), it is because inflation is going lower. CPI is what matters.. End of discussion The economy is currently doing the opposite of that Q4 GDP report https://t.co/xBUcAxE1EP
The yield curve inverted 43 mos ago ... still no recession Nearly everyone told us a recession was coming. If you didn't, you were mocked and told it was Quad Four People say the NFC winning the Super Bowl being good for...
With the Supreme Court striking down Trump’s tariffs, how will supply chains and logistics reset?
1/ We have the #tariffs opinion from #SCOTUS. Bottom line: a 6-3 loss for the administration. LINK to opinion: https://t.co/ITOB5aymTt
Update on US tariffs: The Supreme Court has ruled 6-3 against components of the administration's tariff policy. The ball is now in the administration’s court—specifically the willingness and ability to impose tariffs under alternative legal authorities. #economy #tariffs #markets
Very interesting that Thomas, Alito, and Kav would sign up for carbon border adjustments under the President's emergency authority. Key question is whether the liberal wing can find space between tariffs and carbon border adjustments. https://t.co/TyTuDsECLC
US Supreme Court Ruling Against Trump Tariffs + US Military preparing for an operation in Iran. Well , that's going to be a crazy end to the week. Embrace yourself for volatility.
USTs for now reacting to the loss of tariff revenue, but it remains to be seen how this plays out. Curve steepening https://t.co/ZMjLP2vbxi
This is what happens when export $ recycling slows in a world that is deglobalizing. I.E. When the movement from Capital to Labor shifts, the flow of equity flow moves from digital to real things, from software to hardware, trade...
The US econ grew less than expected in the fourth quarter, weighed down by a record-long govt shutdown, weaker consumer spending, and softer trade. GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q4, down sharply from 4.4% in Q3....
While the U.S. private sector repaired its balance sheet after 2008, the government did not. Gov’t debt to GDP ratio has climbed from 40% in 2007 to almost 110% today. THE U.S. NEEDS A DEBT BRAKE. UNSUSTAINABLE DEBT = FISCAL CRISIS. https://t.co/38NJYDyJgP
Real GDP rose at a 1.4% annual rate in Q4. But the "truth" is better because shutdown-induced real Federal spending cut subtracted 1.15pp. Expect much of that to be added back in Q1. Consumer spending (+2.4%) and business fixed investment (+3.7%)...
US GDP, PCE comes in weaker, why no market reaction? Stocks remain lower. Gold is pushing higher. The dollar remains firm. Problem is - Traders are pricing in risk. With growing fears of a potential conflict over the weekend, positions are being...
A strong finish to the year for core PCE inflation. And not "strong" in a good way. Annual growth rates. 1 month: 4.3% 3 months: 3.1% 6 months: 2.9% 12 months: 3.0%
Thoughts? The World Uncertainty Index has surged to historic levels—exceeding Iraq War, COVID, and 9/11—and identify five stocks positioned to perform well under these geopolitical conditions: Palantir (AI battlefield intelligence), ExxonMobil and Cameco/CCJ (energy security), and NVIDIA (AI defense technology),...
Q4/Q4 core PCE inflation was 2.9% last year (vs. 3.0% in 2024). Trump's statement on the GDP report includes a parenthetical jab at the Fed chair, but there's not much of anything in this report that tells the Fed it...
Did 2025 feel like a wild ride? GDP feels your pain. The quarterly swings were big and short-lived. PDFP, which focuses on consumption and private fixed investment, showed more even, solid gains. https://t.co/LlVwQ7yna5
US GDP: A gauge of underlying domestic demand—real final sales to private domestic purchasers (GDP less inventory change, net exports, and government spending)—grew at a 2.4% annualized rate in Q4 https://t.co/XefZvVp18v
