China's Oil Shock Prep Fuels Investor Gains
China was ready for an oil shock and now investors are reaping the rewards https://t.co/5KptlsOcOf
Oil Jumps $5 on Trump's Open-Ended Iran Attack Threat
SINGAPORE, April 2 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed more than $5 on Thursday, as President Donald Trump said the United States would keep up attacks on Iran without committing to a specific timeline to end the war, fanning investor...
Beyond Oil: Economy Faces a Fatal Heart Attack
If it were just high oil prices, I’d agree with you @dsharma9 But it’s an economic heart attack The patient may not survive.
Trump’s Iran Rhetoric Signals Endless Conflict, Delays Bull Market
Thoughts? Trump's escalation rhetoric toward Iran could mean we're entering an era of perpetual global conflict rather than isolated wars, a continuous cycle that's impossible to resolve quickly. Compute, data, energy, infrastructure, and defense-adjacent industries—could quietly benefit from prolonged instability,...
Hormuz Closure Shows Economic Cliff Already Arrived
I said this on CNBC: We have nothing to show in Iran. If Hormuz stays closed, the economic cliff isn’t coming… …it’s already here LINK👇 https://t.co/qI2DWnHRoo #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Hormuz #Geopolitics https://t.co/2u6h1XKHmK
World Powers Divide Leadership: US Yet to Define Role
-- Netanyahu leads by initiating the war -- Tehran leads in shaping the horizontal escalation -- Asia, Europe and the Mideast being asked to take the lead in reopening the Strait of Hormuz -- The US takes the lead in...?
China Likely Remains Cautious on Iran Mediation, Not Catalyst
Will Beijing throw its weight behind Iran negotiations? That is a key question we tried to answer in our China Macro Watch report released yesterday. While markets and diplomats anticipate a more proactive Chinese role in mediating the Iran conflict,...
Iran Rejects U.S. Terms, War Likely Prolonged
U.S. intel says Iran isn’t looking for a deal Iran believes it’s winning—or at least not losing—and won’t negotiate on U.S. terms. This war is going to last longer than markets expect. https://t.co/u0K8omoeqU #Iran #Geopolitics #Oil #EnergyCrisis
Trump’s Annual Crisis‑driven Theatrics Become Predictable Spectacle
2 April 2025: Trump unleashes his reciprocal tariffs storm 1 April 2026: Trump delivers the hollowest "address to the nation" in the 2nd month of the Iran war oil shock Any guesses for April 2027 and April 2028?
Trump’s Address: Empty Rhetoric, Iran Threat Over Oil
What was the purpose of Trump's address to the nation? - He said absolutely nothing that hadn't already been said multiple times in recent days - He offered nothing to sustainably drive oil prices lower and US equities higher - Given the widespread...
China Must Shift From Export Model to Balanced Trade
1/5 SCMP quotes Qiushi as saying "the inherent traits of China’s economy dictate that the export-driven model relied upon during its phase of outward-oriented accumulation is unsustainable, making the push for balanced trade development inevitable." https://t.co/E39ctbmg5R
Chinese Firms Profit by Reselling Record LNG Amid High Prices
"Chinese firms are reselling record volumes of LNG, cashing in on soaring spot prices as China has enough domestic and pipeline gas to meet its own weakened demand, in stark contrast to other Asian buyers scrambling to replace supplies cut...
April Shut‑ins Match Historic 400 MMbbl IEA Release
If we assume that Hormuz remains closed for the next month, which now seems like a pretty solid bet, the barrels not produced by Gulf states thanks to production shut-ins in **April alone** will be roughly equivalent to the entire...
Gulf Conflict Threatens to Tip Fragile Global Economy
Even before the US-Israeli war on Iran, the global trade engine was faltering. With the Gulf war mounting, it may just push the global economy over the edge. https://t.co/NMD5CzxP9b
Trump's Iran Threat Spikes Brent Crude 5%
JUST IN: Brent crude oil climbed 5% as Trump promised to strike Iran extremely hard within weeks.
China Sees US‑Israeli Clash on Iran as Strategic Boon
China sees the US-Israeli war on Iran as a strategic gift. The great power, the US, is making enemies faster than you can shake a stick. Napoleon famously said, ‘Never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake.' https://t.co/tWhTBmSIBr
Trump’s Vague Iran Remarks Spark War‑trade Market Swing
Trump’s live 20 mins speech over. He opened saying Iran is decimated. Didn’t say if US is withdrawing war. •Brent Oil rose again by 4% •Korea and Japan stocks lower by 1-3% •USD up slightly •Gold lower by 3% Total opposite of yesterday’s performance. War...
Trump Predicts Hormuz Opening as Brent Spikes 2%
Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will "open up naturally" Brent oil prices rise nearly 2% (a session high for the day) https://t.co/7fvQPaw1Bv
Trump Attributes Gas Price Surge to Iranian Attacks
TRUMP: "Many Americans have been concerned to see the recent rise in gasoline prices here at home. This short term increase has been entirely the result of the Iranian regime launching deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers and...
NY Vintner Grabs US Wine Stocks to Dodge Tariffs
JUST IN: A New York vintner is seizing US wine stocks to evade Trump's tariffs.
War Boosts Iran's Nuclear Weapon Prospects, Says Mearsheimer
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on Pres. Trump and Netanyahu's FAILED war goals: “The chances that Iran will get a nuclear weapon have increased significantly as a result of this war.” https://t.co/ZvNgg6aqnl
Iran's Hormuz Blockade Cuts 500M Barrels, Lifts Prices 40%
JUST IN: Iran's dominance in the Strait of Hormuz has withheld around 500 million barrels of oil from the market, boosting prices by about 40%.
Strong Economic Data and Peace Hopes Cut Recession Odds
Solid eco data released this morning.. war resolution hopes... much lower recession odds @kalshi https://t.co/rx3rkIwTm6 https://t.co/5VMb1dBm0q
Gulf War Triggers Asian Price, Debt, Scarcity Crisis
In this article, “how the Gulf’s war is becoming Asia’s crisis too,” The Economist magazine analyzes the three main transmission channels: “prices, debt and scarcity.” #economy #asia #middleeastwar #growth #inflation #debt @theeconomist
Satirical Book Chronicles Year of US Tariff Chaos
In honor of tomorrow's Liberation Day anniversary, I worked with Claude to draft a pretend book about the insane-but-totally-real things that happened over the last year of US "emergency" tariff chaos. Here's the first cut: https://t.co/1srdrUh4Gz
Raimondo Discusses Chips, AI, and US‑Europe Strategy
Really enjoyed chatting with former Commerce Secretary Gina Raimando today @CFR_org. Talked chips, CHIPS, China, AI, US-Europe relations and more. Find it on the feed next week https://t.co/zslTYa4yH1
Hormuz Closure Amplifies Global Trade, Inflation, Financial Strain
Hormuz disruption deepens global economic strain across trade, prices and finance Latest @UNCTAD report on Hormuz 1⃣Energy corridor halted: The Strait of Hormuz remains “practically closed,” disrupting a critical share of global oil and gas flows. 2⃣Trade losing momentum: Global merchandise trade is...
Tariffs Prove Economists Right: Economy Slumps
"Most economists predicted that the economy’s performance would be negatively affected [by the tariffs]. Thus far data overwhelmingly indicate that is what has happened." https://t.co/TXnARw94Md https://t.co/mKF3Gb7Cg2
Trump's Talent Tariff Fails, Costs Rise, Legal Battles
My new Capitolism @thedispatch reviews another poorly-designed Trump tariff that had a chaotic rollout, imposed major economic costs, failed to achieve its objective, & spurred legal challenges. But this one is on foreign talent. "Trump's Other Tariff" https://t.co/8uDH4VwDDJ
Europe Readies Red Sea Force as Houthis Threaten Bab El-Mandeb
European Red Sea Task Force Ready For Attacks Amid Fears Houthis Could Close Bab el-Mandeb Strait Concerns grow that the Iranian-backed rebels could close the waterway, drastically exacerbating the global oil crisis and opening a new front. https://t.co/aVVe6CgGk5
Two‑Thirds of Americans Demand Quick End to Iran War
According to a new Ipsos poll, 66% of Americans say the US should end its involvement in the Iran conflict quickly. THE US PUBLIC IS TURNING ON TRUMP, THE WAR PRESIDENT. https://t.co/tRVyc22FJC
US Farmers Question Argentine Corn Flow to China
Corn from Argentina to China. What do American farmers think? And domestic transportation and ports?
S&P Barely Down 4% Despite Multiple Crises
The S&P is down less than 4% in 2026. This is despite a war, an oil spike, extreme levels of anxiety about AI disrupting every industry on earth, rising interest rates, private credit worries, and big tech companies moving either...
Iran Sees Conflict as Chance to Expel US Influence
Former British Diplomat Alastair Crooke on Iran's position in the war: "Iran is seeing these events... as an opportunity to change the whole geopolitics of West Asia. To invert it completely, to remove the US... and its whole infrastructure of finance...
Brent Slides Despite PMs' “Batten Down” Warnings
Why is front month Brent oil down on the day both Australian and UK prime ministers gave 'batten down the hatches' addresses to their nations?
Inflation‑Adjusted Retail Sales Still Shrink, Q1 Sluggish
Today's "better-than-expected" retail sales numbers were still a net contraction when adjusted for inflation 🙃 There's been a sneaky pullback in the real consumer spending numbers over the past few months. Q1 off to a sluggish start https://t.co/HaUNobi6Tx
US Debt Set to Hit $64 Trillion, Calls for Convention
US national debt is projected to rise by $2.4 TRILLION annually over the next decade. As a result, total national debt would SURGE to $64 TRILLION. IT’S TIME FOR AN ARTICLE V CONSTITUTIONAL CONVENTION TO LIMIT DEBT. https://t.co/ZvvUKmkbHa
Trump’s Slip Could Derail Xi Meeting’s Trade Agenda
How will Trump’s “mistake” affect his meeting with Xi? What does it mean to the agenda, expectations, and outcomes? Starting with trade, supply chains, and logistics. Taiwan?
Economist Warns: War's Hidden Costs Outweigh Oil Prices
Yes, I'm an economist. And yes, I'll talk about oil and gas prices. But still, I wonder whether (and why) we're avoiding talking about the bigger costs of war.
Breakeven Job Growth May Be Slightly Negative, Says Dallas Fed
Dallas Fed: Using newly available microdata that measure net unauthorized immigration through December 2025, an estimate of breakeven job growth is lower than previously thought and could be slightly negative. Monthly job change of -3,000 per month would have been...
Learn From Hormuz Crisis: Rethink Gas Export Strategies
The reshuffling of gas and LNG exports as the Hormuz crisis move to its second month is an experience that we need to learn form.
Yuan Replaces Dollars for Iran Strait Transit, Signaling Currency Clash
Ships paying Iran for transit thru the Strait. In yuan. Not dollars. An indicator of a coming currency battle? And roiling supply chains and maritime?
Asia’s Coal Resurgence Driven by Gas Shortages and Geopolitics
Asia is being FORCED BACK TO COAL to keep the lights on. Gas shortages are leaving countries with no other alternatives. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES. https://t.co/h4FiiSWzHr
Manufacturing Grows Third Month Amid War, Tariff Concerns
"Manufacturing sector expands for third consecutive month, but war, tariffs cause worry" "In the last two months, the prices index has increased 19.3 percentage points to reach its highest level since... June 2022." https://t.co/eKASacTNPS https://t.co/rXk8eLwXeb
Markets Await Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
“Markets are forward looking, and they’re just looking forward to a future when the Strait of Hormuz is no longer closed.” Aren’t we all. https://t.co/U9K3hLC2zT
Toll on Hormuz Likely Raises Prices, Cuts Exporter Profits
Question for incidence-knowers: If post ante regime is one where ships can transit Hormuz as long as they pay a toll, will the end result be --higher prices for final consumers --lower profits for non-Iranian Gulf exporters --rough mix (any split within 1/3-2/3 of...
Build Realistic Macro AI Radar for Housing, Debt, Banking
Housing is unaffordable. Private debt is crushing workers. And the TV talking heads explaining all of this are just as lost as the neoclassical economists they quote. For my 73rd birthday, I am running one Macro AI Radar workshop. I will show...
Is America Really Insolvent? A Simple Economic Breakdown
Is the United States insolvent? Lemme youtubesplain: https://t.co/6Re8YEXmWA I'm trying a few new things on my YouTube channel -- trying to make economics more accessible -- and so I'm also really interested in your feedback.
War and Hormuz Stalemate: Each Blocks the Other
They won’t end the war until Hormuz opens. But Hormuz won’t open until the war ends.🤔 https://t.co/z3QG3m2ZIs
China’s Trade Surplus Centralizes Manufacturing,
Because on the economic front they say it, and they have a trillion trade surplus, which is designed to centralize global manufacturing in China. The left just doesn’t pay attention to commerce.