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Every morning
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January Natural Gas vs. Lower Energy, Rates Goals - The January natural gas future (Jan27) is typically the tip of the price curve and will be tops in relevance around the US midterms, with a potential downward bias. Preexisting trends may favor Trump administration goals for lower energy prices and interest rates. My graphic shows the Jan27 gas future at about $4.75 per MMBTUs, stuck in a roughly $4.40-$5.40 cage since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Some detente could add pressure to the fuel, the primary US source of heat, electricity and fertilizer. Jan27’s failure to hold above $5.40 -- despite a second straight colder-than-normal winter -- could pave the way for a move below $4.40. The enduring trend over nearly two decades has been that when prices spike, producers bring ample supply to the market. They may be well prepared for a cold winter that might not come. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/V3LQqEb6NL {BI COMD} #naturalgas #energy @markets
For what its worth, the reason the term “Global Reserve Asset” has gained traction over last 5 yrs is bc those who previously said USD would lose “Global Reserve Currency” status had to pivot after getting everything they ever dreamed...
Energy dominance has been Trump’s most consequential failure @Anon1Oil No Defense Production Act. No serious incentives. No strategy. “Drill, baby, drill” turned into “die, baby, die” in the oil patch. And he’s wasted oil as leverage against China. As for telling me...
In my interview with @WSJ, I spoke about Europe’s economy, the importance of central bank independence, AI and more. Read my interview https://t.co/LEbflpU9tB https://t.co/KlfELnA179
Global economies. Trade. Supply chains. Logistics. Was Trump’s action to the Supreme Court striking down his tariffs it? Or will there be more?
Supply Chains Brace for Renewed Turbulence as Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump Tariffs. If you have not made your supply chains flexible and adaptable, good luck. https://t.co/PfhBGWsOQa
This is utterly moronic on all levels. Have Dutch politicians overdosed on stupid pills? An ‘insane’ new wealth tax has global investors panicking https://t.co/VsB8fRFFkX
On this week's Canada Letter, our @nytimes Saturday morning newsletter, Ian Austen walks you through how the latest Trump tariff drama affects Canada. Also, a roundup of Canada-related stories from across our newsroom. Read, share, sign up! https://t.co/tsuuBxOUtM
GDP/capita is one of the worst metrics to gauge actually important things about people's lives. There, I said it.
Macro: AI demand drives chip & platform leaders. Factors: HBM tightness (Micron), AIP adoption (Palantir). Risks: supply, concentration. Trade: buy MU on pullbacks for HBM exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
On Feb. 10 we @nytimes broke the story that the owner of Ambassador Bridge, a Detroit trucking heir, had met with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hours before President Trump took to social media to blast a new competing bridge...
My take on MODI'S WIN over Trump in the US-India Trade Deal: "Ironically, Trump's threats have allowed Modi to dismantle some of India's protectionist measures. Previously, the dismantling wouldn't have been possible. Now Modi can say, 'Enemy Trump made...
I joined the @MilkRoadMacro show this week. Laid out why we remain overweight equities, but you want to still own other parts of the 🌍. https://t.co/X8faci8XLY
Macro: SCOTUS struck down IEEPA tariffs; admin will likely reissue ~80–90% → limited upside. Key: supplier pricing, de minimis. Risk: refunds slow. Trade: buy ONON for margin tailwind. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
The Dollar yesterday fell back to its recent lows against EM, even though core PCE inflation came in hot and the SCOTUS decision should have lifted it. Regime change for USD is upon us. Things that ordinarily lift the Dollar...
Oh boy. “DOLLAR in DECLINE” “The U.S. currency has lost its dominance. What investors should do now.”
⚠️US Dollar weakness is historically BAD news for US stocks: AVERAGE ANNUALIZED RETURNS during the 5 major Dollar bear markets since 1967: S&P 500: +6.4% annualized Gold: +43.1% annualized EM stocks: +23.7% annualized👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-stock-market-has-peaked
10% equity drop could erase $7T and shave ~0.9% off GDP. Tech/AI capex and hyperscaler overinvestment raise downside risk. Trade insight: trim cyclicals & hardware suppliers. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
How many more years is this idiocy going to continue? Two collaborationist regimes in the center of Europe, during the largest continental war since WWII, are openly undermining the entire 500-million EU and the defense of the free world, all while...
Week Ahead: Does the Dollar Still Have Legs After the Tariff Ruling?: The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's use of emergency powers to impose widespread tariffs. The court did not rule on refunds. Trump quickly announced a 10% across-the-board…...
Outside of an occasional shock like around Liberation Day, it is not clear that the tariffs had much impact in the FX market. $USD held up fairly well in the face of the disappointing GDP and tariff ruling. What's...
The $10 trillion U.S. debt wall has become a political weapon. But the accounting tells a different story than what you'll read in mainstream economics textbooks.
Recall @HalftimeReport Slink's confidentally quoting (on almost a daily basis) of the robust GDP Now projections by the Atlanta Fed (among the worst forecasters extant) to support her "the economy is great" and bullish market thesis? That is the...
The legal foundation of Washington’s geoeconomic power plays is looking shaky after the U.S. Supreme Court ruling invalidated the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) Source: Vizualytiks https://www.voronoiapp.com/trade/US-Tariff-Revenue-7693
Gold back over $5100 USD and Silver over $84 USD. We have a potential Iran conflict, and the end of the CNY break next week. https://t.co/Eac6sG80np
The Supreme Court Ruling In a 6–3 decision (Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump), the Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 does not give the President the authority to impose tariffs.
#LibyaWatch🇱🇾: Thanks to US-led regime change operations in 2011, Libya is a failed state. Today, I measure Libya’s inflation at 58.8%/yr. LIBYA’S ECONOMY = IN THE TANK. https://t.co/5JVou6TFc3
🎩 ✍️ @nytimes 1. IEEPA = 1/4 of Trumpian tariffs; 2. Rates were coming down; exemptions expanding = Affordability TACO under way since summer 2025 https://t.co/OpllUV99nH
Are Trumpian trade deals valid❓ ✍️ @nytimes”The fate of those deals is in doubt now with the Supreme Court decision, because many of the deals were premised on tariff rates under the IEEPA law” https://t.co/ltr9FW5Tl4
GOLD ( XAUUSD ) : 5100 Has Been Reclaimed. Exactly as shared ahead of time. Technical break of market structure , Rising Geopolitical concerns , Tariffs uncertainty , Stagflation concerns , Rate cuts pricing = Higher Gold.
Sanctions + fuel shortages broke the Cuban grid Those with dollars self-electrify while the rest sit in the dark. Energy desperation risks deepening inequality while the broader economy deteriorates. https://t.co/xOjVSt4Eep #EnergyCrisis #Cuba #Sanctions #Solar #GridFailure
We should stop asking for stock markets to be open for every economic announcement so that traders can hedge their risks. Imagine if our market was open when these new tariffs were announced and old ones scapped- 12 hours later people...
Japan’s inflation rate comes in at 1.53%/yr in January, BELOW its 2%/yr target. JP’s money supply (M2) is growing at 1.56%/yr, WELL BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of~6.07%/yr, a rate consistent with JP’s 2%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY...
Important. Net effect of striking IEEPA/ reciprocal tariffs and doing the 122 with similar product exemptions should be a tariff reduction.
Re. the US SC tariff decision: As IEEPA was also the basis for the 25% addl punitive tariffs Trump imposed on India for buying Russian oil, it no longer holds. While Trump scrapped those tariffs Feb 6 under an interim...
Today, the US announced a plan to sell Venezuelan oil to India. Note who’s selling Venezuela’s oil to India. It’s Uncle Sam. AMAZING. https://t.co/SLitquccox
JPMORGAN: “.. many trade deals negotiated to date have relied on IEEPA tariffs and have not yet been formalized as trade agreements. With the legal basis for these tariffs now invalidated, the fate of these deals is in question. These...
China’s economy has held up remarkably well against shocks like U.S. tariffs but continued resilience will need consumption to drive growth, rather than external demand, according to a report by the International Monetary Fund. @Tracyyyqu https://t.co/7pUUCZaEr2
My take on the US dollar: "The DOLLAR IS KING, and it's going to REMAIN KING. It's hard to knock a king off his throne." https://t.co/txOJ9KZ8Qw
SCOTUS just ruled Trump can’t use emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs. Why? The Constitution gives tariff power to Congress, and IEEPA never authorized a president to tax imports. The Court rejected the power grab and the economic overreach. It’s...
Since our bullish call on Korea last August… EWY +99.27% SPY +7.78% Money counting time. https://t.co/EKTw9HANNh
Trump's tariffs COST US BUSINESSES BILLIONS. Fortunately, today, the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs. But that won’t be the last act in the TARIFF TRAGEDY. https://t.co/BaPcQ0duJJ
In my weekly markets video for clients, I highlighted how investors have gone from “7 to Staples”. Usually, growing macro risks lead to Staples leadership. This time macro isn’t the issue, but it could be due to Mag 7’s idiosyncratic...
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 32.4%/yr. NO SURPRISE. AR’s money supply (M3) is growing at 38.7%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 9.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 5%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = PRES. MILEI'S ACHILLES HEEL....
A couple of points on Section 122 tariffs -- as they seem to be coming quickly 1/ https://t.co/s9LF3ZMZ1q
This illustrates the problems with the IMF's 2025 external sector report -- for one, it uses the 2024 current account surplus as its measure, and a lot has changed since then ... 1/2 https://t.co/uBaXFvSXhW
The Bank of Montreal has followed my lead. It just UPGRADED its gold price forecast to $6,500/oz by year's end. I predict the GOLD BULL will PEAK at $6,000-$7,000/oz. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/69wgiprOrt
Sad to watch so many analysts and economists argue that it is a "win" to allow China to continue to deploy surpluses earned from making a significant % of the US military for us 👇into US equity stakes which China...
Canadian officials had told me they were concerned a SCOTUS loss might enable Trump to impose harsher tariffs on Canada, which currently has the lowest effective tariff rate together w Mexico. Whether they told the Trump Admin this, as the president...
$2 trillion in forced liquidation blamed on chinese traders, margin hikes & Warsh pick, silver is 33 cents away from completing its 10th consecutive monthly candle (if it were monthend) #forex #XAUUSD #XAGUSD https://t.co/SOjpd04sAO
