Geopolitical Oil Spikes Usually Brief, Sometimes Linger on Markets
GS: Most historical oil spikes linked to geopolitical shocks had a temporary impact, but some weighed on equities and bonds for longer https://t.co/Vxa6K0Dhkc
Energy
GS: 10 charts we are watching: Goldilocks faces a Balanced Bear The energy shock results in a pickup in inflation as well as weaker growth and less policy easing After the bullish start to the year, our Risk Appetite Indicator declined but...
AI Bad for Writing, Great for Hawkish Speech Scoring
Kinda mixed feelings about using AI. For writing it’s definitely bad. But I think it’s totally fine to use an LLM to gauge which of two (anonymized) FOMC speeches is more hawkish (macro context dependent) and repeat that thousands of...
Record Hormuz Outflow: 4 Million Barrels, War‑Era Peak
Everything suggests that at least ~4 million barrels of crude exited the Strait of Hormuz today. Largest outflow since the 1st day of the Third Gulf War. (... And yes, that's a fraction of the 20 million barrels a day...
US Hits Record Petroleum, Naphtha, LNG Exports Post‑Hormuz
Most recent interview.... Note: New record highs for the US after the closure of Hormuz: 🎯Export of petroleum products 🎯Exports of Naphtha 🎯Exports of LNG
Bond Traders Show Minimal Bearishness Ahead of Jobs Report
Bond traders are the least bearish in 10 years ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report: BMO survey. Just 24% of respondents saw the next 15 bp move in 10-year yields as being higher, the lowest since Nov. 2010. Most see the...
Predictable, Rules‑based Mega‑regional Pacts Lure Nations Away From Superpowers
EU, CPTPP & USMCA are deep mega regionals but latter no longer rules-based. Nations seeking to diversify away from the giants are attracted by arrangements that 1) are rules-based & have worked for years, 2) don’t involve US or CN,...
Geopolitics Drive Record US Oil Exports and Price Surge
🎯 Following the Hormuz Crisis, U.S. exports of petroleum products surged to a record high last month as Europe suffers for high diesel and jet fuel prices, while Venezuela’s crude oil exports reached their highest level in six years. 🎯Following Trump's...
Trump Increases Tariffs on Steel, Aluminum, Copper
Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Strengthens Tariffs on Steel, Aluminum, and Copper Imports – The White House https://t.co/IXDEgVOFVH
White House Tightens Controls on Aluminum, Steel, Copper Imports
Strengthening Actions Taken to Adjust Imports of Aluminum, Steel, and Copper Into the United States – The White House https://t.co/K1KguBjwkT
Trump’s Tariffs Reversed Within a Week After
Happy Liberation Day anniversary. Exactly a year ago - to the hour - President Trump announced the range of tariffs against a wide range of trade partners. He reverse course 7 days later following a steep market tumble
Oil Prices Hit Highest Since 2008, Surpassing War Levels
From Bloomberg: “The world’s most important price for real-world oil barrels surged above $140 on Thursday, the highest since 2008. Dated Brent, the price of shipments bought and sold in the North Sea, reached $141.37, surpassing levels seen when Russia invaded...
Japan's Public Debt Fuels Massive Sovereign Carry Trade
amazing writeup on japan's public sector balance sheet, net debt, and massive sovereign carry trade. https://t.co/JTMMXBfCKu
Trump Must End War, Iran Open Hormuz to Curb Prices
The only way to stop an economic spiral is for Trump to end the war and for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. The longer he delays, the longer Americans will struggle with higher oil—and gas—prices. @morningjoe
Trump’s “Strongest Economy” Claim Clashes with Modest Growth
Trump says he built the "strongest economy in history". TRUMP = HASN’T LOOKED AT THE DATA. USA REAL GDP GROWTH 2024 = 2.8%/yr USA REAL GDP GROWTH 2025 = 2.1%/yr. https://t.co/ZEBSTs32ra
War and Inflation Likely Cancel Fed Rate Cuts This Year
Markets were expecting two to three rate cuts from the Fed this year until Trump’s War in Iran began to wreak financial havoc. With inflation picking up, it looks like we might not get any rate cuts at all this...
Losing the Petro‑dollar Could Wreck US Economy
The U.S. economy and dollar will collapse if we don't pull out of Iran effectively. Higher interest rates are already set to cost us an additional $400 billion+ by 2028. If we lose the petro-dollar... Kaboom. https://t.co/MxLBztAy4Y
No Deal Imminent; Hormuz Likely Stays Closed This Weekend
I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think we’re anywhere close to having a “deal” or the strait of Hormuz opening anytime soon. This 3 day weekend could be a absolute sh-t show and almost expect it to be...
Trump’s Absurd Oil Advice Reveals Twisted Pretzel Logic
Trump's "advice" to nations that are suffering from the US-Israeli war of choice that closed the Strait of Hormuz: "Build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait and just take [the oil]. Iran has been decimated... so it should...
US Blames China for Harassing Panama‑Flagged Ships
The US accused China of harassing and detaining #Panama-flagged ships after the Central American nation struck down contracts with a Hong Kong conglomerate operating ports on both sides of the Panama Canal. https://t.co/l49JKUezz4
Iran Conflict Could Waste Over One Billion Barrels
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 The Billion Barrel Cost of a Longer Iran War The total volume of unproduced Gulf barrels is set to rise above one billion barrels over full shock duration; lost production in April alone will absorb nearly the entire...
National Debt Is About Sustainability, Not Household Limits
Public debt isn’t like household debt. A family can hit a hard stop. A country can refinance, tax, grow, and revisit its budget year after year. The issue is sustainability, not a single scary number. https://t.co/T4l1gg78Xk
2026 Food Crisis Fears Ease Compared to 2022
VIDEO COLUMN: Another food crisis? The experience of 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, plus the increase in fertiliser prices, have prompted concern about another food price spike. But the situation in 2026 isn't nearly as concerning. At least, no yet. https://t.co/BjXPjnhMrG
2026 Forecast: Economy Expected to Grow 4‑5% Real
“We are going to see a very, very strong economy this year. We could see between 4 and 5% real growth." - Scott Bessent, Jan 2026 https://t.co/JlonK53rXZ
Iran War Undermines U.S. Strategy Across Asia
As the United States wages war with Iran, much of Washington has been consumed with a geopolitical debate about what it will mean for America’s strategic competition with China. But this abstract debate belies the harsh realities now facing governments,...
US Current Account Deficit Steadies Near 4% of GDP
True, but also a bit deceptive. The spike in q1 overstated the "true" current account deficit, and the unwinding of gold and pharma front running depressed the h2 deficit. The underlying current account deficit is still...
War Dominates March 2026, Markets Stay Surprisingly Calm
Beware the ides of March? That was true in 2026 as the month started with war, with questions about how long and to what end, and ended with war, and the same questions. Oil prices were up, stock prices were...
Market Odds Suggest US Troops Soon Despite Trump’s Vague Timeline
“We’ll be leaving very soon, within two weeks, maybe a couple of days longer to do the job. But we want to knock out every single thing they have." -President Trump (3/31) If this is true, why is Polymarket showing a...
Q1 Review Highlights Emerging Risks for Global Markets
Always good fun to talk all things markets with my good friend @MrMBrown as we look back at Q1 and what might lie ahead in terms of risks for global markets and the economy https://t.co/byl3LqaH3U
Tariffs Boost Inflation, Stall Growth, Offer No Trade Gains
Four theses on tariff impacts: 1. Evidence clearly shows they've added 0.5-1.0pp to inflation. Evidence consistent with them subtracting from growth. And no evidence they've done anything good for manufacturing or trade deficits (but they have raised revenue).
Economy Thriving: Record Gains Amid Minimal Recession
The unemployment rate is 4.4%. This week’s ADP payroll report was better than expected. The retail sales report was also better than expected and the January report was revised higher. The ISM Manufacturing report was positive for the third month in a row,...
Brent Oil Surges to $141.37, Highest Since 2008
Physical oil hits its highest level since 2008 *DATED BRENT OIL PRICE SOARS TO $141.37/BBL, HIGHEST SINCE 2008 https://t.co/OkcbcnE3kg
AI-Enabled Goods Lead US Imports in 2025
AI-enabling goods were big drivers of US imports in 2025. More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/hsx98RbAJP
Tariffs Cut Trade Deficit to Lowest Since 2020
The Massive Unsustainable Trade Deficit in Goods Has Improved Sharply. Tariffs Are Doing their Job. The 6-month average trade deficit in goods fell to $80 billion, the least-bad since 2020 https://t.co/xhTU8KRbPU https://t.co/pDi3O4iYwF
Trump Boasts Rapid US Takeover of Venezuela, Sparks Criticism
Trump on the US capture of Venezuela in his address to the nation: "American troops took the country of Venezuela in a matter of minutes...it was quick, lethal, violent & respected by everyone all over the world.” IS THIS REALLY WORTH THE...
S&P 500 Mirrors Intraday Treasury Yield Swings
$SPX is tracking intraday peaks and troughs in Treasury yields very closely as macro correlations remain elevated #fairleadstrategies https://t.co/9bi1kaFWxh
Key Metrics to Watch for Tomorrow’s Jobs Day
If you're trying to figure out what metrics actually matter for Jobs Day tomorrow, check out this valuable piece from @PrestonMui and @_vikasbp: How The Fed Is Tracking Jobs Day https://t.co/zWQYamKDaT https://t.co/NeRpIroGPi
Gold Sellers Beware: Iran's CNY Deal Triggers Arbitrage
They’ll hold a meeting, realize they can’t open it if the US couldn’t, & then just agree to pay Iran in CNY… …and the easiest/only way to secure CNY is by buying physical gold in USD and selling that gold to...
Fed Model Returns: Rates Matching Equities Threaten Stocks
One of my main themes since the rate reset in 2022 is that the Fed model is “back.” The Fed model, popularized by Alan Greenspan during the 1980’s, holds that when the risk-free rate (Treasuries) is competitive with risky assets...
Iran's Strait Fees Threaten Global Shipping Costs
Iran. Will impose fees for using the Strait. How long will the fees last? Financial impact for all the affected shippers/receivers for the different vessel and end use markets? Will some supply chains collapse?
Trump’s Tariffs Echo Nixon, Yet Turn Grimmer
Trump’s protectionist Nixon redux takes a darker turn than the original This is truly the outstanding column on the anniversary of Trump's April Fools' Liberation Day Tariffs. Must read by Alan Beattie in @financialtimes https://t.co/tQg3yTTDU5
US Soy Exports to China Slightly Up, Q1 Plummets
🇺🇸USA exported 2.43 million metric tons (89 mbu) of soybeans to China in February, slightly above the month's five-year average. Q2 (Dec-Feb) 2025/26 U.S. bean shipments to China edged the year-ago Q2 volume by about one cargo, but Q1 2025/26 was...
Turkey's $40bn Lira Defense Mirrors 2025 Intervention
Factoring in gold, I estimate Turkey has intervened to the tune of $40 bn in March 2026 to defend the Lira. That's the same as in March and April 2025 after the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu, an episode that ended...
UK Leads 35‑Nation Virtual Talks to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
"UK to host talks with 35 countries on reopening Strait of Hormuz," @Reuters https://t.co/Hp8s7zc1T7 British foreign minister Yvette Cooper will chair the virtual meeting of about 35 countries including France, Germany, Italy, Canada and the United Arab Emirates around midday in...
Sovereign Spreads Lag Behind FX in Pricing Fundamentals
also interesting that sovereign spreads have widened—you’ve seen terms of trade differentiation in FX but sov debt has been slower to price differing country-by-country macro fundamentals
Markets Hold Steady Amid Iran-Oman Hormuz Protocol
IRAN: DRAFTING PROTOCOL WITH OMAN FOR HORMUZ STRAIT TRAFFIC Interesting that the stock market holding steady today after yesterday's address by President Trump. When stocks stop going down on bad news, worth paying attention.
61% of Americans Anticipate Recession Within Year
The latest Ipsos Consumer Tracker finds that 61% of Americans expect a recession within the next 12 months. While recession storm clouds are gathering, a slowdown is BAKED IN THE CAKE. https://t.co/uijU8le8FD
Core Truflation Below Headline Signals Consumer Spending Cut
"If you look at Truflation, you are seeing core Truflation running below headline, it is telling you that consumers are already cutting back on discretionary purchase." https://t.co/AZWaQ8HgmF #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/3Qh0AXdqub
10‑Year Yield
Another big development last week was that the 10-year Treasury yield rose sharply to 4.48%. The chart below shows that the yield has continued to coil in a large triangle, and could be on the verge of a break-out. Meanwhile,...
Iran Conflict Set to Ripple Through U.S. Supply Chains
The supply chain impacts from the war in Iran are starting to build up. Americans will likely feel the ripples.