Oil Futures Curve Contradicts White House’s Iran Disruption Claim
White House top economic adviser Kevin Hassett says the oil futures market agrees Iran is a short-term disruption. Apparently he means the shape of the oil futures curve, which is massively backwardated (or inverted, if you prefer that terminology). Now, who’s going to tell him?
Claim: US Entrepreneurial Dynamism Still Outpaces Pre‑2020 (Sarcastic)
Fortunately, you are probably not aware that the (assumed) level of entrepreneurial dynamism in the US labor market continues to exceed all periods prior to 2020... /s https://t.co/pbpkvBkZ3D
March Adds 178K Jobs, Double Forecast, Rivals 2025 Total
US employers added 178,000 jobs in March. This was over twice as high as the consensus of 60,000. For context, jobs added in March nearly matched the yearly total for all of 2025, when only 181,000 jobs were added. https://t.co/HhjdreSvui
Jobs Surge Boosts Main Street, Participation Rate Still Lags
My five main takeaways from this morning’s strong March US Jobs Report: 1. Great news for Main Street: With a blockbuster 178,000 jobs added and unemployment dropping to 4.3%, the labor market is outperforming expectations. 2. The supply-side challenge: The labor force...
Trump's Pharma Tariff Won't Lower Prices, Study Finds
Trump's proposed 100% tariff on pharma imports would have limited impact, analysis says. Why? 68% of U.S. prescription drugs are already made domestically. Prices are driven by patents & rebates, not import costs. Healthcare
Dollar's Upside Surprise Effect Fades, Weakness Looms
A few months ago, I wrote about how upside data surprises weren't lifting the Dollar anymore. Today is a case in point. Big upside surprise to payrolls and the Dollar does basically nothing. We're seeing regime change for the Dollar...
Wage Growth Slows to 3.5%, Threatened by Rising Inflation
Important point: Wage growth slowed in March to 3.5%. That's the lowest since May 2021. 3.5% looks decent, but we're in the midst of a big surge inflation as gas and transport costs rise. We could easily hit 4%+ inflation, which will...
ECB's Simkus: Too Early to Judge April Meeting
ECB’s Simkus says it is too early to call the outcome of April’s meeting https://t.co/GyAjrsyZA3 via @mseput https://t.co/uL1RzTuL18
March Payroll Surge Likely Unsustainable, New Data Shows
If you think the reported jump in payrolls in March is sustainable, I have some news: https://t.co/zRB6pq1mqD
Middle East Turmoil Threatens Global Industrial Supply Chains
The Narrowing Straits: Why the Middle East Crisis is a Fault Line for Global Industry https://t.co/q4PGQdnQp0
Surprise US Payrolls Lift Yields, Hit Emerging Markets
The last thing the word needed this morning was strong US data. But that's what we got. A +1.5 standard deviation surprise on payrolls that's pushed up the 2-year yield 5 basis points, which is broadly in line with its...
Job Market Rebounds: 178K March Jobs, Unemployment at 4.3%
The job market continues to be reasonably good (for an aging workforce with low net immigration). 178K jobs in March, much a bounceback from strikes and weather that resulted in -133K (revised) in February. The three month average is 68K. Urate ticked...
China Challenges Iran at UN over Hormuz Closure
China, Europe and why Beijing took a swing at Iran over the Strait of Hormuz Beijing takes a stand at the United Nations at the closure of shipping lanes Despite all the blather about how China benefits from the conflict... https://t.co/dhDbWjo4ip via...
Unemployment Hits 4.3%, Jobs Surge Beyond Forecast
US Unemployment Rate moved down to 4.3% in March, the lowest level since last August & well below the historical average of 5.7%. 178k jobs were added vs. 51k expected (but February revised⬇️to -133k from -92k). YoY wage growth: +3.5%,...
Central Bank's Gold Sale Signals Deep Hormuz Crisis
The sloppiest gold seller in global central bank history - why? Desperately needed the cash. This is just one of the many tentacles (3rd, 4th, 5th order effects), coming out of the Straight of Hormuz.
Xi Removes Third Politburo Member in Six Months
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has ousted a third member of the Communist Party’s elite Politburo in less than six months https://t.co/qfl3fLbDhU via @WSJ
NFP 178k: Overhyped Amid Low Expectations
I am aghast listening to people on TV discuss the NFP report of 178k as "Blowout numbers." This is an okay number, not as bad as some recent data points, not as good as others. Call it the soft prejudice of...
Fed Must Prioritize Growth Over Inflation in Stagflation
This is rapidly becoming one of the most pronounced stagflationary environments in decades. Inflation is accelerating while growth is rolling over sharply. That leaves the Fed in a real bind. At these levels of debt, you either save growth or kill inflation. Policymakers will...
Italy's 3.1% Deficit Breaches EU Limit, Meloni Stumbles
Italy deficit at 3.1% breaches the EU ceiling in a setback for Meloni https://t.co/wR7mbX77hT via @Alemrome https://t.co/hjq6E3LDXV
Payrolls Stuck in Ten-Month Yo‑Yo Alternation
With today's blockbuster +178k print on payrolls we've now been in a bizarre yo-yo pattern alternating between positive and negative payroll numbers for ten straight months, dating to last June. https://t.co/LSW4ELkTYg
March Adds 178k Jobs, Unemployment Drops to 4.3%
The economy added +178,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. But revisions sent February to -133,000 from -92,000. January was revised up to +160,000 from +126,000.
Europe's Gas Price Surge Makes Hormuz Intervention Urgent
Whatever objections Europe has to helping open up the Strait of Hormuz, it's a matter of urgent self-interest to help sort this situation out. On a similar time scale to 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, European natural gas prices are...
Foreign Central Banks Boost Fed Holdings by $3.3 Bn
The week ending Wednesday was the first in six weeks that foreign central banks did not draw on their custody holdings (Treasuries and Agencies) at the Federal Reserve. In fact, their holdings increased by almost $3.3 bln. See https://t.co/VPY5kkVh5i
Bond Vigilantes Reprice Yields as Oil Shocks Drive Inflation Outlook
Bond Vigilantes are repricing yield curves worldwide as oil shocks reshape inflation expectations. Global spreads reveal where markets see the biggest shifts ahead. 🟢 Open https://t.co/ntInn7MIg4
Full Hormuz Oil Replacement Unrealistic, 10‑
Ideas Dinner Manhattan: Strait of Hormuz, how to replace 21M bpd oil?? Existing bypass pipelines (Saudi 7M + UAE 1.8M) cover 40-45%. Full replacement? 10–20+ yrs, $40B+, geopolitically brutal, not realistic. Next 5 yrs: expansions might hit 55–65% max. https://t.co/eTeUaAMFgS
US Energy Shock Hits Prices; Asia Faces Real Shortages
Remember, the energy shock in the US is primarily about price. Elsewhere in much of the world, quantity is also a real concern. Indeed, you only need to look at the ongoing policy and household/corporate adaptations in an increasing number of...
Escalation Risks Dampen Risk‑Taking, US Jobs Keep Dollar Flat
Risk of Escalation Discourages Risk Taking while US Jobs Report May Extend the Dollar's Narrow Ranges: The shroud of the Middle East war overhangs the Good Friday holiday. The attack on an Iranian bridge yesterday threatens a response in kind...
China Gains Upper Hand in Iran Conflict
Today's pod: WHY CHINA IS WINNING THE IRAN WAR Energy crises tend to have strange ripple effects. The 1970s oil crises contributed to (among many other things): - stagflation, the demise of the New Deal order in America, & the ensuing...
War Fears Curb Risk Ahead of US Jobs Data
Fear that the Middle East war escalates in the coming days, before full liquidity returns next Tuesday, will likely limit risk taking today. US jobs is the focus in early North America. Three US army generals lost their...
Bond Volatility Drives Global Cross‑asset Market Turbulence
If the PPT wants/needs to manipulate the US Equity Futures, that's fine - we know how that ends (gravity always wins) The real problem is Bond Market Vol and there's no change to that TRENDING Breakout Pretty much every position, everywhere,...
Chinese Payment Stocks Jump as Yuan Used for Hormuz Tolls
SHANGHAI, April 3 (Reuters) - Shares of some Chinese companies engaged in cross-border payments surged on Friday, after commerce ministry mentioned that ships had used the Chinese yuan to pay tolls passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil Analysts' Warnings Ignored Until Supply Shocks Hit
Oil experts are an interesting breed of people. They are sorta like gold bugs. For long periods they sit in a distant corner of the financial markets. We pass by their desks and they nod at us...
Middle East War Will Raise Your Milk Price
The milk in your fridge this week may cost more next month. Not because of the dairy farm. Because of a war in the Middle East that nobody told you would reach this far.
US Asia Imports Drop in February Amid AI Surge
US imports from Asia fell in February despite rising AI buildout demand https://t.co/Hg52XqzW8J via @NikkeiAsia
Fed's Oversized Balance Sheet Undermines Inflation Goals
The essay from Lorie Logan is excellent. Unfortunately the tradeoffs of balance sheet size vs public good have been and continue to be mistakenly biased to narrow goals and miss the big picture which remains a failure of the...
Traders Increase Bets on UK Rate Hikes This Year
Traders added to wagers that UK interest rates will rise this year https://t.co/MMX4qogHde via @highisland @alicegledhill1 https://t.co/2awWhutl3G
Global Oil Surge Drives Pakistan's Rising Petrol Prices
Not sure why people are criticizing the government so much over the petrol price, but the truth is that petrol prices haven’t just increased in Pakistan—they’ve risen globally. Prices in the international market have gone from around $65 to $120,...
Trump's 25% Metal Tariff Reshapes Supply
Trump’s new metal tariff policy applies a 25pc flat rate on many derivative imports and reshapes downstream costs. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/trump-metal-tariff-policy-reshapes.html
China Adds Household Income Boost to Top Policy
1/12 Caixin: "For the first time, China has embedded a dedicated plan to raise household incomes into a top-level national policy document, signaling a change in priorities as policymakers grapple with persistently weak consumer spending." https://t.co/ynrYu49v8R
Escalating Conflicts Spread From Regional to Global
It doesn’t de-escalate. That’s the uncomfortable reality. These phases don’t resolve quickly, and they don’t reverse easily. Pressure builds. Friction increases. More actors get pulled in. And over time, what looked regional starts to connect. That’s how it spreads. More on the website. #Geopolitics #Macro #GlobalRisk #Strategy #War
Gold's Decline Signals Hidden Deflation Amid Tight Liquidity
Nobody wanted to sell when gold and silver were at their most overbought levels in years. Now, everyone will worry about how much more selling is left to fund the geopolitical crisis that is engulfing countries around the world. In...
Q1 2026 Dim Sum Issuance Rises 14% to 400bn Yuan
Caixin: "For the first quarter of 2026, dim sum issuance totaled nearly 400 billion yuan, up 14% from a year earlier." https://t.co/yksX2koWPr
Kremlin Says Strait of Hormuz Open for Russia
MOSCOW, April 2 (Reuters) - Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on Thursday that the Strait of Hormuz was open for Russia.
GDP Growth Differs Under Hard Vs. Soft Budget Constraints
In my latest piece for Carnegie, I explain why GDP growth in economies that mainly operate under hard budget constraints is not comparable to GDP growth in countries, like China, in which a large part of the economy operates under...
U.S. Consumes More Crude Than It Produces, Remains Net Importer
The US is a net importer of crude oil. It consumes more crude oil than it produces, it doesn't have crude oil to sell to the world. https://t.co/OuDErnkSc9
Nominal Trade Rebounds: Exports Surge, Imports Match Biden Levels
A thread on the February 2026 trade data, with some answers and some questions -- Both nominal imports and nominal exports (ex petrol) are growing again -- with surprising strength in nominal exports and nominal imports back at their end Biden...
7‑11% Oil Cut Triggers Systemic Economic Collapse
A 7–11% loss of oil supply is beyond what the global economy can absorb, says @LukeGromen It’s not a recession risk—it’s systemic failure. The only uncertainty is where the break shows up first, not whether it happens.
India’s First Iranian Oil Shipment Rerouted to China
🇮🇳While the media highlighted India's first Iranian oil shipment in recent years, Kpler tracking now shows the vessel has been redirected to China. Will get an update tomorrow. Map form @Kpler
U.S. Brands Face Sharp Decline in Chinese Sales
American companies are flailing in China. This week, Nike said revenue there was down by a double-digit percentage and poised to get worse. California clothing brand Guess just closed down all its stores in China. @JonathanEmont https://t.co/Pv10jKnLUy https://t.co/Pv10jKnLUy
Venezuela's Inflation Remains World's Highest at 548%
#VNZWatch🇻🇪: Today, I measure Venezuela's inflation AS THE WORLD'S HIGHEST at a CRUSHING 548.6%/yr. That's down from a peak of 828.6%/yr on February 4th. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, YOU WON’T FIND THIS IMPORTANT STORY IN THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA. https://t.co/x1zOmOWtIF