Oil's Necessity Forces Nations to Negotiate Iran Passage
Reality is setting in. Oil has to flow—and countries will deal with Iran to get it. Ships aren’t passing freely. They’re negotiating passage. That’s the new order. https://t.co/C8UjfpGovY #Oil #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics
Vietnam's Q1 GDP Growth Slows to 7.83%
JUST IN: Vietnam's GDP expanded by 7.83% year-over-year in Q1, down from 8.46% in Q4.
Money Supply Growth Matches Target Inflation Range
Australia's consumer price inflation is 3.7%/yr. Australia's broad money supply grew at 7.4%/yr. That's within Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 7.3-8.3%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Australia's target inflation rate of 2-3%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/aYQzJ8foVn
ADNOC Underscores Hormuz's Vital Role in Global Energy
Adnoc is buying ads to stress the importance of the Strait of Hormuz for global energy flows Adnoc can’t export LNG and other fuels to customers in Asia and Europe without going through Hormuz https://t.co/F4fehuRnDr
Energy Basics: US Isn’t Independent, Markets Global, Controls Fail
Chamath has repeatedly been wrong about energy issues — sometimes to a comical degree. He could have used a refresher on ECON 101. 🥁Here are three basic realities he seems to miss: 1- The United States has never been truly energy independent...
Media Overlooked Revised February Job Loss Spike
In reporting the good jobs numbers for March, the media failed to pick up on the fact that the job losses in February were revised UP from 92,000 lost jobs to 133,000 lost jobs. https://t.co/haZXRUFU55
Trump Bluntly Admits War Driven by Oil
There was a time when the White House worked very hard to try to convince everyone that a war wasn’t about oil. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is crystal clear it’s about oil. https://t.co/XlAII7qvg6
Tariff Chaos Year Review: Disappointing Results, Shifting Goalposts
Excellent review of our recent, chart-filled @CatoInstitute piece on the last year of US tariff chaos, with some also-excellent additional commentary on tariff fans' goalpost-moving, cherry-picking, & misdirection.
Trump's Tariffs Accelerated US Manufacturing Job Losses
A year ago, Trump proclaimed that “Liberation Day” would be "the day American industry was reborn." Thanks to Trump's tariffs, US manufacturing job losses accelerated, shedding 108,000 jobs in 2025. TARIFF MAN = HOW TO DESTROY AMERICA'S MANUFACTURING JOBS. https://t.co/3jvtsqZiBh
White House Simplifies Tariffs, but 50% Rates Stay Punitive
After months of lobbying by companies that were unfairly hit by tariffs, the White House consolidated and simplified metals tariffs. But, tariffs remain SKY-HIGH at 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper. The admin's changes were only window dressing. Tariff rates remain punitive....
US Jobs Market Shifts From Steady Growth to Volatility
Taking the data at face value, the US labor market appears to have transitioned from a period of sustained, stable growth into a phase of significant volatility. Per the FT chart below, recent reports are characterized by sharp swings between job...
Half Global Sulfur Flows Through Hormuz, Fueling Industry
John Dizard nailed this one in The Institutional Risk Analyst w/ @rcwhalen: "Most, around half, of sulfur in the world goes through the Strait of Hormuz. You need sulfuric acid in order to produce copper, steel, nickel...you really need it to...
China's Money Printing Matches
Everyone focuses on U.S. money printing. But China has quietly been just as aggressive—if not more.
US Regime Change Attempts Mostly Fail, Often Disastrous
I spoke with @MarioNawfal on regime changes: "Regime changes very rarely work... There have been about 70 regime change attempts by the US since WWII, & almost none have resulted in successful regime changes. The ones that ‘worked’ ended up in complete...
Capacity Glut Neutralizes Hormuz Shock, Rates Stall
Container Rates Stall as Capacity Glut Offsets Hormuz Shock. War. Geopolitics. Supply chains. Fill the ship with lower rates pricing game. https://t.co/Qli3djw5g9
Iran Refuses Pakistan Talks; Trump Demands More Time for Hormuz
Iran Unwilling To Meet US Negotiators In Pakistan, Talks At 'Dead End', As Trump Says 'A Little More Time' Needed To Open Hormuz: (ZeroHedge)
2026 Jobs Data Shows Early Improvement Over 2025
As crazy as this sounds, the jobs data has improved in 2026 compared to 2025 so far. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #realestate #economics #jobs #chartdaddy
Trump’s New Steel/Aluminum Tariffs: Expert Session Essential
Yesterday President Trump made major changes to tariffs for steel and aluminum imports. If you import products subject to Section 232 duties on steel or aluminum, you will not want to miss our expert session on those changes.
Globalisation Ends, Economic Regionalisation Becomes New Norm
“Globalisation has come to an end while we see the trend of economic regionalisation” - Li Shufu, founder of @GeelyGroup. Bluntly articulated. This is the New World Order. The realisation & pivot is happening... Great piece by @KanaInagaki & @FT team. https://t.co/ofhYP4sF43
Spending Remains Strong; Demand Destruction Not Yet Evident
Friday shoutout to @joebrusuelas, chief economist at RSM, who has been doing some of the best analysis of the war in Iran's economic impact. The key question now is: When does the oil price shock trigger demand destruction? Joe has a great...
Gulf State Declines Leading Role in Mediation
The Gulf state told U.S. officials last week that it wasn't keen on playing a key role in the mediation or leading the efforts, according to the officials and some of the mediators.
Iran Rejects US Demands, Shows No Ceasefire Desperation
As per the WSJ, Iran rejects all U.S. demands and refuses to meet with American officials in Islamabad. This makes it clear that there were no negotiations and Iran wasn't desperate for a ceasefire.
Control of Hormuz Determines Iran’s Energy Leverage
The war isn’t about nukes anymore. It’s about Hormuz. If Iran controls the strait, it controls the leverage—energy flows, revenue, and deterrence. Lose that, and it loses everything. https://t.co/E8y4o6BWN6 #Iran #Hormuz #Oil #Geopolitics
ISM Non‑Manufacturing PMI Forecast Signals Rate‑Risk, Short Bills Hedge
Macro: ISM Non‑Manufacturing PMI (exp 55.0) will set US growth/inflation tone. Key: new orders, employment, prices. Risk: hot print reprices rates. Trade: favor short bills to hedge duration. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Manufacturing Jobs May Rise Slightly, Yale Predicts
I do think its important to note it would not be shocking if manufacturing employment moves higher over the year. It is hard to say because of downstream losses from higher input costs, but factories are being completed. The Yale...
Trump Pushes Higher Defense Spending Amid Slowing Growth
During the Clinton reign (1993-2001), US defense spending fell from 4.3% to 2.9% of GDP - while GDP SOARED at 4.0%/year. As the economy slumps to 2.1%/yr GDP growth, Trump proposes to increase the defense budget from ~3.0% to 5.0% of...
Chinese Government Bonds Stand Out as War Safe Haven
Chinese government bonds emerge as lone war haven. More on this in today's version of the Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/jQYKfLr6kx
France Considers Targeted Fuel Aid Amid Iran War
France weighs targeted fuel aid as Iran war pushes up costs https://t.co/cq1BDGxOCP via @WHorobin https://t.co/XDxJyMTgxY
Egypt's Soaring Inflation Mirrors Excessive Money Supply Growth
Egypt’s inflation rate is 13.4%/yr. That’s above its inflation target of 3-7%/yr. Egypt’s money supply just came in at 16.9%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.1-15.1%/yr, consistent with hitting its inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Europe's War Reluctance Grows Amid China Economic Ties
If Europe wouldn't assist in a war with a regime that every leader has condemned that has been left nearly powerless, there is little chance they would support a war against China where strong economic and supply chain dependancies exist
Fuel Crisis Pushes Indonesia Toward Perilous Policy Trade‑offs
A terrific piece from my #CarnegieAsia teammate @sdjaffrey on how the fuel crisis is forcing politically perilous trade-offs in Indonesia. As conflict in the Middle East drives up fuel costs across Asia, Indonesia faces difficult policy trade-offs over subsidies, inflation,...
Iran's Oil Revenues Surge Amid US‑Israeli Conflict
I spoke with @MarioNawfal on Iran's free cash flow benefits from the US-Israeli war on Iran: "Who's benefited economically from the war? It's Iran. Because they're exporting more oil than they were before. The price is a lot higher & the...
Iran’s Hormuz Grip Threatens Global Oil Supply
What Iran’s Control of the Strait of Hormuz Means for the Global Economy #oott #oil #iran @ACGlobalEnergy https://t.co/zl1MAO5TPp
US Iran Strike Sparks Red Market, Treasuries Bleed
March 2, 2025. The market opens to a sea of red following news of a U.S. attack on the Iranian regime. Treasuries bleed in anticipation of inflationary supply shocks. Trend-following strategies are in disarray. What's up with carry? by @jordonezjr https://t.co/oeugyTwcEN https://t.co/2Oq7Njel14
Global Trade at Crossroads: Autonomy Replaces Win‑Win
#tradeXpresso: Global trade is at a crossroads. Tariffs 📈. Weaponised dependencies. Collapsing WTO norms. The win-win logic is replaced by strategic autonomy & zero-sum thinking. Three futures for global trade. Which path are we on? https://t.co/lGxTVEATfb #TradePolicy30 https://t.co/2eDwAvKjMM
March Workweek Dip Stalls Payroll Growth, 12‑month Rise at 3.9%
From the March payroll report: INCOMES: A drop in the average workweek in March led to very little growth in the index of aggregate weekly payrolls for private-sector workers (which combines hiring, wages, and hours). The 12-month change ticked down to...
Markets Now Directly Drive Consumer Prices, Lag Vanishes
Yet another example of the shrinking time lag between market price changes and consumer price changes. While the market may not be the economy, what is becoming all too clear is that the economy is now the markets.
White House Adviser Cites Futures: Energy Prices Falling
“… Energy prices are going down […] you don’t have to believe me, look at the futures market…” — White House top economic adviser Kevin Hassett https://t.co/RCHUpjLhW2
US Services PMI Shows Declining Activity, Slowing Hiring
"Business activity declines amid higher inflation and war in the Middle East ... Employment down amid weakest rise in new work for nearly two years" - S&P US Services PMI https://t.co/4ESKcLv1IC
War Often Spurs Market Gains, Not Losses
Most people think war = bad time to invest. History says the opposite. Markets have actually performed better during major conflicts. And “waiting it out” can cost you major gains. I broke it down with real data. Reply “war” and I’ll DM you the video.
Trump's Exaggerated Claim: Iran's Forces Far From Destroyed
Trump said, "[Iran's] navy is gone. Their air force is gone. Their missiles are just about used up or beaten." Typical -- Trump's rhetoric doesn't match reality. https://t.co/Tu24oA8RNH
Soybean Prices Capped at $12 Amid Record Brazil Output
Soybean's $12 Ceiling Alongside $120 Crude Oil It may take some combination of WTI crude oil staying above $100 a barrel, a poor Brazilian crop and a Corn Belt drought for soybeans to stay above $12 a bushel. Alongside crude's spike...
Iran War Ripple Effects Threaten Corn Belt Yields
Nice article here by my Purdue mates on the impact of the Iran War on Corn Belt crop agriculture https://t.co/eapip2SLMa
Italy Prolongs Iran War Fuel Tax Cut, Costing €500 Million
Italy extends Iran war fuel-tax cut at the cost of €500 million https://t.co/7xt4Nt9sDu via @donatopmancini https://t.co/Pgpw2aMYNs
US Data Center Buildout Fueled by Imported Components, Ignoring Tariffs
Pretty good Bloomberg look at the imports powering (pun intended) the US data center buildout, but it omits mention of US tariffs (AD/CVD, 232s, etc) - some dating back more than a decade - on large power transformers, electrical steel,...
Iran Turns to Euro, France Pays in Yuan
Iranians accepting EUR....or French paying in CNY (after selling gold to China to get CNY)?
Ex‑Iranian VP Urges Nuclear Limits, Hormuz Reopening, US Pact
Even a former Iranian VP says: Keep fighting & everyone loses He proposes: Iran limits its nuclear program & reopens Hormuz Full sanctions relief U.S. non-aggression pact. https://t.co/bbE9D1Zj4d #Iran #Geopolitics #Oil #EnergyCrisis
Oil at $150 Could Spark Global Recession, Warns BlackRock
BIG: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns that oil prices reaching $150 could trigger a global recession https://t.co/0zsMPxObej
March Jobs Data Removes Fed Trade‑off Pressure
What does the March jobs report mean for the Fed? It keeps one of the harder problems off the table. Powell said this week the war created the possibility of a greater inflation/labor market tradeoff but said the Fed didn't face...
Ignore Noise, See Strong Economy and Industrial Recovery
Ignore the noise and focus on the signal. Our economy is doing well and industrials are recovering.