Weak Yen, AI Capex Drive Japan Stock Upside
Macro: governance reform, weak yen, AI-capex support Japan equities. Key: buybacks, rising margins, supply-chain leverage. Risks: demand weakness, policy shifts. Trade: buy exporters on dips. —Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Trump Threatens Total Destruction if Iran Deal Stalls
JUST IN: Trump says an Iran agreement could close by Tuesday, or he'll destroy everything.
Iran Mandates Crypto Tolls for Ships in Strait of Hormuz
JUST IN: Iran is now requiring cryptocurrency payments as tolls for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump's $1.5 T Defense Request Dwarfs Multiple National Economies
Trump's $1.5T military budget request is MASSIVE. $1.5T is larger than the entire economies of Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, & Türkiye. It’s almost the entire size of Indonesia’s economy & roughly HALF the size of France's entire economy. TRUMP = PLOWSHARES INTO SWORDS....
Trump Demands Iran Reopen Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday
JUST IN: Trump's ultimatum: Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday night, per WSJ.
Geopolitical Realignments Signal Looming 2026 Bear Market
A Faustian Bargain, the Battle of the Bulge and Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact - President Trump's conversion to crypto zealot helped get him elected and pumped prices to nosebleed levels. That Faustian-like bargain is unraveling. Stocks may be next. - The "unlimited friendship" between...
Energy Shortage Drives Job Loss, Dollar Collapse, Pax End
92,000 jobs lost. Unemployment rising. The dollar cracking at its foundation. Mainstream economists are calling this a surprise. I have been warning about this for years because unlike conventional theory, my models actually include money and energy. Labor without energy is a corpse....
Asia Faces Fuel Squeeze as Reserves Dip to 30 Days
Asian countries (excluding China) only hold 30 days of fuel in reserve. If that isn't bad enough, they rely heavily on oil shipments from the Persian Gulf. IN THE COMING DAYS, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SQUEEZE AND HIGHER PRICES...
US Inaction Will Trigger Oil Shock in Two Weeks
Listen to the question carefully then listen to the answer. Those waiting for US Leadership in solving the Strait of Hormuz issue, you are gonna be disappointed. They have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA how to solve the issue. In less than 2 weeks, global...
Euro‑industrial Reports May Be Outdated Post‑Middle East Conflict
Multiple euro-region industrial reports will draw attention this week, although their focus on February — before war began in the Middle East — may limit their utility for investors https://t.co/CfoQtcZf4b via @CraigStirling https://t.co/tAswRZZD3n
Market Sentiment Swings Wildly; Consensus Overreacts Each Side
My homework this weekend - went from max optimism in Jan: tax refunds, tariff repeal, easy Lliberation Day comps & resilient consumer. To extreme pessimism in April: higher gas prices, war, global growth slowdown and higher inflation....
Mortgage Spreads High; 8% Rates Demand Booming Economy
With where mortgage spreads are at with the Fed Funds Rate, 8% rates would need a booming economy with job and wage growth picking up again Spreads got as high as 3.11% in 2023, currently at 2.11% https://t.co/25afwLqFtN
Oil Reserves Aren't Instantly Deployable Due to Logistical Limits
•“Reserves” ≠ instantly usable supply These barrels are spread across countries and fields, and many aren’t quickly accessible. •Logistics constraints Transport, refining, and geopolitics limit how fast oil can be deployed.
US Crude Production Hits Record, Global Impacts Loom
US crude oil production breaks new records. What does this mean for other countries? For the American public? More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/WAXH5XLi1r
Bond Market Warns: No Rate Cuts, Equity Rally Fading
The bond market is telling you what equities refuse to accept. Rate cuts aren't coming. This rally is just a bounce before the binary. https://t.co/Mh5FYZAawT
U.S. Policies May Have Accelerated Iran’s Nuclear Program
My friend and Johns Hopkins colleague Vali Nasr on Iranian nuclear proliferation: “Rather than preventing [Iranian] nuclear proliferation, the US may have actually accelerated it — and has no way of stopping it.” https://t.co/UctRpvmg1s
Oil Shocks Ripple Globally Through Inflation and Rates
“America doesn’t need Hormuz” misses the point, writes @vtchakarova Oil is global. Prices are global. Risk is global. You don’t need the barrels to feel the shock. It hits through inflation, rates, and the system itself. #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Inflation
US Trade Balance Remains Stable as Rivals Falter
During the next three months, the trade balance of all countries competing with the United States will be hit hard. The US will be the least impacted. Exactly as happened in 1974!
Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Murrin’s Critical Weekly Forecast
Every Saturday. David Murrin’s key predictions from the week’s latest insight. This week — the Strait of Hormuz. And what’s really at stake.
A Pivotal Week Ahead for Global Economy and Markets
Another pivotal week is on tap for the global economy and markets. Please see why in this, my weekly note on recent developments and immediate prospects (links below). https://mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-910?r=33wip https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-zecrc?lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_series_entity%3BIEUjQgDHQGSDuxWPLz3R%2BQ%3D%3D #economy #markets
Assessing This Week’s Risk Appetite: Bullish or Bearish?
My article for market conditions, themes and top event risk for the week ahead (and some of the charts): Bull or Bear: What is the Prevailing Wind for Risk Appetite? https://t.co/TVXg9nQEKj https://t.co/NqWkTckR31
Data Deluge, yet Iran Conflict Remains Market Driver
Another week of heavy data but don't be mistaken Iran War will run the show 👇 🇺🇸 US - ISM Services -CPI -Fed Minutes -Durable Goods -Personal income/spending -UMich 🇪🇺 EZ -Retail Sales -PMI Rev -GE Trade & IP 🇨🇦 CA -IVEY -Jobs 🇳🇿 NZ -RBNZ -PMI 🇦🇺 AU Retail Sales
Savings Surplus Flips to Spending Glut, Straining Builders
Real economy "builders" need money. They can source money from investors or consumers. Since Covid, investors and consumers had money from massive fiscal and monetary policy actions. Builders got all the money they needed from consumption plus more from...
Rebuilding U.S. Industry Essential to Counter China’s Assault
For decades, the erosion of America's industrial capacity has been gradual and largely ignored. First, it was foundational sectors: solar, batteries, furniture, footwear, pharmaceuticals. Now, the shift is moving into advanced industries: materials, biotechnology, semiconductors and increasingly, technology and software. This is not...
Global Debt, Not Oil, Fuels True Complacency
I keep hearing the word complacency regarding oil prices. Maybe. But the real complacency is in global debt markets. We have an inflationary shock and fiscal policy that - especially in Europe and Japan - is out of control. This...
Forward Yield Spike Signals Looming Global Debt Crisis
The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.3% (blue) and looks benign. But 10y10y forward yield (red) is 5.5% and pushing above pre-2008 levels. The global debt crisis waits for no one. Fiscal policy is out of control and geopolitical uncertainty makes...
Deficits Surge, Supply Chains Shift in Multipolar Era
2020-2026 1. We go from 3% fiscal deficits for 30-40 years to 6-8%. Bush: $150B to $400B Obama: $1.1T to $400B Trump Biden: 1.4T to $3T 2. Go from “just in time” supply chains in a unipolar world, far fewer global conflicts to a multipolar...
Policy Moves, Not Data, Drive Oil, Dollar, Gold Trends
On yesterday's live stream, I discussed which oil prices to watch, why the Dollar failed to rise on Friday's strong payrolls and the large drop in gold holdings of Turkey's central bank, which is entirely a function of the decision...
Gulf Oil Disruption Hits Asian Nations, Fuels Global Price Surge
The bulk of crude oil out of the Persian Gulf - before the war - went to Asia. That dependence is now creating a giant hole, which is what's driving up oil prices globally. Especially hard hit are Pakistan (PK),...
US Tariff Spike Vanishes by Lunch, Market Wins
A new Factful Friday is up! (I'm catching up for the lost weeks.) https://t.co/fwpvB8ElNV 👉At 12:01am on 9 April 2025, US tariffs hit historic highs. The biggest American tariff hike ever. 👉By lunchtime, most of them were gone. ⭐Grievance-fuelled tariffs had collided with financial...
In Panic, Oil Hoarding Is Inevitable—China Must Act
⭕️When markets are in panic, asking countries not to hoard oil is like asking people in a lifeboat not to ration the food — everyone knows the supplies might run out before rescue arrives, and self-preservation kicks in hard. ⭕️China...
Tariffs Boost US Steel Prices
Tariffs sustain US steel prices; infrastructure demand firm. Nucor: scale + scrap verticals; Commercial Metals: rebar exposure, M&A. Risks: demand slump, tariff rollback. Trade: Buy Nucor for FCF upside. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China's Bad‑Loan Market Grows Amid Squeezed Bank Margins
China Daily notes that non-performing loan disposals are rising, suggesting that China is slowly developing a bad-loan market, even as record low net-interest margins make it harder for banks to recognize bad loans. https://t.co/UhXgPDv3nE
China Urges Balanced Growth of Imports and Exports
1/3 Xinhua: "China has sent fresh signals of promoting more balanced development of imports and exports. A recent commentary article in the Qiushi Journal called for concrete steps to balance import and export growth." https://t.co/eO90uuquzA
India Ranks 4th in GDP, 126th per Capita
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India boasts the WORLD'S 4th largest GDP. But, when it comes to income per person, India comes in at a lowly 126th in the world. https://t.co/YKTgg6cZcJ
Iran Escalates, Targeting US Jets, UAE Gas, Steel Plant
- Iran shot down US🇺🇸 Fighter Jets - Iran’s 🇮🇷biggest steel plant shut down after attack - Japan's 🇯🇵10-Year Yield jumps above 2.39%, the highest level since 1999 - Iran destroyed World largest gas Facility in UAE - Dozens of aircraft...
US Oil Prices Now Fully Tied to Global Market
In the early days of the invasion of Iran, US oil prices were slightly insulated from the global price shock, by perhaps $10 a barrel or 25% of the spike. That has now ended. Oil is a globally traded commodity....
4D Map Reveals Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Blockade
i built this 4d reconstruction of iran's chokehold on the world's oil. almost nothing is getting through the strait of hormuz. you can clearly see the path ships took before/after the blockade, and can even detect & track "dark vessels"...
EU's Own Sanctions Undermine
The irony is: the EU reduced its dependence on Russia to improve "energy security"! Slovak PM says EU should drop sanctions on Russian oil and gas to boost energy security https://t.co/FmUhPkAcgE
Tariffs and Middle East Conflict Drive Aluminum Prices Sky‑High
Aluminum prices are up over 83% YoY. First, Trump’s tariffs strained supply. Now war in Iran is cutting Gulf imports that supply 20% of US aluminum imports. TRUMP’S TARIFFS + TRUMP’S WAR = A BIG BILL FOR AMERICANS. https://t.co/M0EPxDjZSN
Strait of Hormuz: Open, Closed, or Cartoon Chaos?
Strait of Hormuz WEEK 5 Update | Is the Strait OPEN or CLOSED? | Have We Gone Full Looney Tunes? Video: https://t.co/UmvO23asx3 https://t.co/WWKZn0XYH6
Know Economic Calendar Before Trading to Avoid Surprises
Most traders skip pre market prep and get caught off guard by news. Before the session starts, you should know exactly when economic data releases like FOMC, CPI, or interest rate decisions are scheduled. These events can shift volatility, market structure, and...
War Claims Near End, yet Satellite Images Suppressed
> say war is almost over for weeks > repeatedly jawbone oil market lower > say war definitely nearly done > pressure satellite imagery providers to *indefinitely* withhold imagery from war zone that could help market (and public) make their own judgements
RBI Bans Rupee Shorting Tools, but Impact Doubtful
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is stepping in to try to slow the rupee’s slide. By restricting derivatives and other tools traders use to SHORT the rupee, the RBI is trying to suppress bets AGAINST the currency. THE RBI'S ENGAGED...
Iran Strikes Tighten Oil, Boost Gold as Tensions Rise
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Markets → Oil, Gold, Equities ─────── 1. Israeli strikes on Iran's Mahshahr petrochemical complex disrupt 70% of the country's gasoline supply and export revenues. 2. US demands for reopening the Strait of Hormuz escalate tensions, threatening global oil...
US‑Iran Ceasefire Odds Remain Under 50% Through June
According to Polymarket, there is only an 18% chance of a US–Iran ceasefire by the end of April. There is only a 47% chance of a ceasefire by the end of June. TRUMP = FOREVER WAR = ANTI-MAGA. https://t.co/ZaFmL9ud2V
COVID's Shutdown Cut Oil Demand 9%; Deeper Cuts Impossible without Crisis
In COVID oil demand was down 9.2% y/y. All it took was shutting down much of the economy & handing out stimmy’s. You think we can shut the economy more than COVID, with no stimulus and without stock & bond markets, banking...
Overweight Select Russian Banks Amid Flat MOEX, Firm Ruble
Macro: MOEX flat at 1‑month low; RVI at 52‑week low. Key: banks mixed, Brent and WTI higher, RUB firmer. Risks: oil volatility and geopolitical/sanctions. Trade insight: overweight selective Russian banks. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Israel Poised to Strike Iran's Energy, Risking Market Panic
Israel “ready to hit Iran’s energy sector,” waiting on U.S. approval. That’s a signal to pressure Iran to back down & deal It COULD happen but would panic markets & possibly cause a financial crisis on top of an oil crisis #Oil...
Oman VLCCs Signal Imminent Hormuz Opening, Tanker Frenzy
With the first oil-laden very large crude carriers (VLCCs) coming out of Oman, @ed_fin explains why in the next few months, he expects the Strait of Hormuz to open and there to be a "feeding frenzy" for tankers "It's going to...