Year's First Pre‑Tax Day Amid Sub‑6.5% Rates
First pre-tax day year when rates have been 6.50% or below most of the time. https://t.co/YibUd3rIAT
US Labor Data Shows Economy Still Robust
Labour market indicators suggest the US economy is still going strong. This and more in the today's Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/DZsTza1fHV
Wells Fargo Predicts Fed Rates Staying High Until 2026
Higher for longer: Wells Fargo expects the Fed to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75% through 2026 @seekingalpha https://t.co/cSdOS8R4z6
Liquidity Emerges as Primary Market Stress Warning
GS: Global Markets Comment: Market Stress Monitor Temperature Check... seems like liquidity is the biggest red flag https://t.co/mR61tRz4DL
Airline Fares Signal Upcoming CPI Inflation Rise
Not an encouraging sign... this is a solid indicator of future airline prices and CPI inflation. via "Airlines for America" website https://t.co/zXUKyVcVvd
ISM Manufacturing Employment Signals Lower 2026 Recession Risk
The Polymarket recession odds for 2026 are 36%. I believe that is an overestimation. Consider the employment component of ISM Manufacturing. It bottomed nine reports ago, at 43.4, and is on the mend. This index often breaks below 40 for...
China's Oil Supply Half Threatened by Hormuz Slowdown
Just FYI, with reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (it cannot be objectively assessed as fully closed), China risks losing roughly 40 to 50 percent of its oil imports, which come from Gulf producers whose exports transit the Strait,...
Iranian Rial Gains 9% Amid US-Israeli Conflict, Media Silent
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran 5 weeks ago, the Iranian rial as APPRECIATED by 9% against the USD. THE WESTERN MEDIA (READ: PROPGANDA MACHINE) REMAINS SILENT ON THIS INCONVENIENT FACT. https://t.co/9n42ihPYE9
U.S. Petroleum Exports Hit Record, Reaching New Markets
U.S. weekly petroleum product exports surged to a record 7.9 mb/d for the week ending March 27, according to EIA. While weekly figures are volatile, multiple sources have reported U.S. product exports increasing to Asia, Africa and other areas. Trade...
Trump Demands Free Oil Flow Through Hormuz in Deal
US President Donald Trump says that “part of the deal is we want free traffic of oil” via the Strait of Hormuz. (In reference to the current US-Iran talks via regional intermediaries)
Consistent Framework Prevents Misreading Tariff Shock Data
Operating from an intellectually and internally consistent framework for how a policy shock like tariffs should affect the economy will help guard against misleading interpretations of the data. https://t.co/GgMqA3UftP https://t.co/cP8F1ngAEQ
South Africa’s Inflation Plummets, SARB Swings Rates Aggressively
South Africa's inflation peaked at around 7.8% in mid 2022 and fell to a cycle low of around 2.7% in March 2025. The SARB responded with one of its most aggressive hiking cycles in recent history, taking the repo rate...
Tariffs Mostly Shifted to Foreign Exporters, Not Consumers
Fun paper from Fed/Georgetown economists: A chunk of what was thought to be price increases driven by 2018-19 tariffs is attributable to smaller purchase orders due to tariffs. Their conclusion: tariffs were primarily borne by foreign exporters. https://t.co/wxoheNJ8PO
Markets Rise on Deal Hopes, Energy Pressure Relief
Why are markets rallying despite Trump's threats? 1. They think deal in imminent 2.They think US will take the Strait of Hormuz either way pressure on energy comes down.
Zimbabwe Aims for Upper‑middle‑income Status by 2030
Zimbabwe is a middle income country… that’s why Vision 2030 is about becoming an UPPER MIDDLE INCOME ECONOMY… Of course you can be poor as an individual due to your own circumstances, but don’t drag the whole country into your...
Biden Administration Oversaw Gaza's Civilian Infrastructure Destruction
Not to be like, That Guy or whatever, but this was the very clear position of the Biden administration as it oversaw the destruction of essentially all the civilian infrastructure capable of sustaining human life in Gaza
Houthis Grip Bab Al-Mandeb, Threaten Global Shipping
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is the gateway into the Red Sea, en route to the Suez Canal. Houthis CONTROL THE STRAIT. Ships avoid the strait because of danger & punishing insurance rates. If Trump escalates in Iran, the Houthis will squeeze the chokepoint...
Oil Spike Triggers Biggest Monthly Inflation Rise Since 2022
We just saw largest monthly inflation increase since 2022. Most people still don't realize exactly why this happened and what the implications are. It starts with oil. Oil is the backbone of the global economy, so when it spikes, the impact doesn’t stay...
NYC’s Financial Hub Likely to Relocate to Texas
If and when the end of this Fourth Turning comes, and the Financial Capital of the World leaves NYC, it is more likely to end up moving to Texas than somewhere in Asia. https://t.co/CrIB1ON3YH
French vs South African Chains Battle African Retail
Many African retail markets are contested by dueling French and South African chains. This and more featured in the Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/zZCQM6c25l
How the Strait of Hormuz Shapes Global Goods Flow
We did an awesome interview on the physical layout and flow of goods resulting from the Strait of Hormuz, with @mercoglianos. Listen here. https://t.co/jmVFr6LS8L
Saudi, Qatar, Abu Dhabi Fund 30% of Paramount‑Warner Deal
About 30% of Paramount's $81B takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery is financed by the sovereign wealth funds from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Abu Dhabi—three countries attacked by Iran since the U.S. started its latest Middle East conflict. https://t.co/mOjqkF3fza
US Energy Independence Is a Myth Amid Global Shocks
Just read a wild JPMorgan note on the current energy + war situation. Here are the spiciest takes 🧵 “US energy independence” is basically a myth. Even as a net exporter, the US is still getting hit by global price shocks—sometimes worse...
Hormuz Oil Flows Remain Severely Reduced, Markets Underestimate Recovery
Hormuz flows aren't coming back to normal despite what you hear, says @CroftHelima Transit will be a fraction of pre-war levels because Iran’s leverage depends on keeping energy markets tight. And even after a deal, the road back is long. Markets are...
Google Searches for “Recession” Hit All‑time High.
Not great... Worldwide Google news search for the term 'recession' is the highest its been since records began (~Dec 2007). There were literal #recessions over that period... https://t.co/poAknCUGME
War Depreciates Money; Real Assets Outperform
"The one thing you can be quite sure of: if we went into some very major war, the value of money would go down. You’re going to be a lot better off owning productive assets over the next fifty years...
Conflicting Data Undermines Trust in NFP Service Jobs
Best month for service-sector employment (+143k) since December 2024 if you believe the nonfarm payroll report. Worst month since December 2023 if you believe the ISM survey that just came out. Take your pick, because they both can’t be right. Thing is –...
Dimon Warns AI, Wars Test US, Calls for Freedom
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that global conflicts, economic uncertainty and rapid AI disruption are testing the U.S., urging a renewed commitment to “freedom, liberty and opportunity.” In his annual letter to shareholders, he cited wars, inflation, trade tensions...
Currie Calls Iran War Oil Shock Unprecedented, Like 1973+1979
Distinguished economist & commodity market guru Jeff Currie on the OIL SHOCK caused by Trump & Netanyahu's war in Iran: "It is the largest shock the oil markets have ever seen in their history... [It is] the culmination of ‘73 and...
Soybean Inspections to China Surge, Other Grains Flat
Export inspections destined for China in the week ending April 2 (mln bu): #corn 0.0, grain sorghum 2.3, #soybeans 18.3, #wheat 0.0 #oatt
Unemployment Hits Historic Low Since 1971‑1998
The current unemployment rate is lower than where it was every single month from 1971 to 1998. https://t.co/VAAexazBPH
Trump Metal Tariffs Remain, with Several New Exceptions Added
Trump metal tariffs stick around, with some new exceptions #energysky -- via Solar Power World: https://t.co/yscNdORQWs
Economists: U.S. Firms, Consumers Shoulder 90% of Tariffs
Yet another set of reputable trade economists has found American companies and consumers paying for almost all of Trump's 2025 tariffs (here, 90%): https://t.co/181rja53he https://t.co/CXheguca42
USMCA Negotiations Quietly Shape Future Trade Landscape
While Everyone Watches Oil and Tariffs, USMCA Looms - https://t.co/D7EQGyKCLJ #USCMA #Mexico #Canada #globaltrade #supplychain #logistics
Today's Stubborn Inflation Driven by New Factors, Not 1970s
This chart is fine as a simple comparison of historical inflation experiences, but the current tenaciousness of inflation is due to different factors, and is happening in a different policy context, from the inflation of the late 1970s. 1/2
Dollar's Global Grip Shows Cracks, Not Collapse
Is the dollar’s global dominance foundation starting to crack or just facing a few termites? 🐜💵 I sat down with former Fed & Treasury insiders @steven_kamin & @sobel_mark to unpack threats to dollar dominance, fiscal policy, Fed independence,...
Allies Hedge Bets, Distrust U.S. Amid Growing Skepticism
More evidence that even U.S. friends and allies don’t trust Uncle Sam and are hedging, pivoting away from the USA. https://t.co/Sn8dFUs5GJ
Demand Will Collapse Once Inventories Exhausted, Prices Surge
Distinguished economist & commodity market guru Jeff Currie on oil supply and demand: "Once we exhaust our ability to draw down inventories [in] mid to late April... demand has to come crashing down in line with supply. The key question is...
Ceasefire Stalled: US Wants Open Strait, Iran Opposes
Okay, so here’s how how the ceasefire cookie crumbles: - A ceasefire without the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will likely be unacceptable to the US. - A ceasefire with a reopening will likely be unacceptable to Iran. Iran appears serious...
Japan's Future Bright, Europe's Past Fades with US Alliance
Japan’s greatest days are ahead of it, as it recommits to its partnership with America Europe’s best days are behind it, as it moves away from its alliance with the US
China Shifts Upstream in Global Production Networks
China moves upstream in production networks. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/z8YSI2hXDR
Summers Wasn't Alone: Multiple Economists Warned of Inflation
It’s strange how Summers is often implicitly covered as if he were the only economist who warned about inflation in 2021 The dominant forecast was it would be transitory (there’s still debate as to whether it ended up being a really...
War‑driven Gas Prices Could Hit $5 Before Midterms
The US is running on borrowed time in this war. The average price of one gallon of gasoline isn't yet at the $5 it reached in 2022 after Russia's Ukraine invasion, but it's heading there if this war continues. That...
Trump Treads Carefully on Fragile China Trade Truce
'Walking on eggshells’: How Trump is managing his delicate China truce “We don’t unwind a generation of outsourcing and product dependency quickly. I mean, you just can’t without such massive disruptions that it’s really not worth it. You’re killing the...
Ceasefire Triggers Oil Drop, Dollar Decline, EM Rally
A ceasefire is coming. Two things will get repriced quickly when that happens. Oil futures will tumble and the Dollar will fall sharply. The latter is up on safe haven inflows to the US. All those inflows will unwind very...
Saudi Oil Price Surge Signals Phase Three Economic Fallout
From the Bloomberg article on “Saudi Arabia rais[ing] the price of its main oil grade to Asia to a record high premium.” This price development coincides with more Asian governments worrying about physical energy supplies—marking part of what I’ve termed "Phase...
Iran Conflict Set to Reshape Global Supply Chains, Dimon Warns
Jamie Dimon. JP Morgan. Iran war. Change GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS. Across industries and market sectors. Oil and its distillates and derivatives. Petrochemicals. Sulfur. Alumina. Fertilizer. More.
Record Foreign Inflows Defy “Sell America” Rhetoric
One year ago, after the rollout of reciprocal tariffs, "Sell America" was all the rage. But there never was a "Sell America" trade and no "Hedge America" trade either. Foreign inflows into the US are at record highs. Actions speak...
US Hormuz Deadline Extended, Markets Shift to Dollar, Oil
Cease-Fire Hopes Blunt US Ultimatum: The US deadline on Tehran for re-opening the Strait of Hormuz has subtly shifted until tomorrow. The holiday-thinned market initially bought dollars and oil and took risk off in response to the continued attacks and…...
Tariff on Auto Parts Doubles Consumer Losses, Cuts U.S. Profits
New @nberpubs: "Tariffs, Global Value Chains, and the Incidence of Protection: Evidence from US Automobiles" https://t.co/qydVvo0gkV Extending tariffs to intermediate inputs doubles consumer losses, "and producer surplus for U.S.-headquartered firms declines by about $2.6 billion" 😲