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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
$USOIL monthly - The Israeli-U.S. strike in Iran will propel the price of crude oil to the 1st yearly resistance at 73.90. Above that there's the June 2025 high at 77.64. These are the 2 potential upside targets for next week. As long as crude oil is below 77.64 it's still in a long term downtrend.
Is Crude Oil Becoming a Rally to Sell? US crude and liquid fuel net exports approaching 4 million barrels a day in 2026 -- the highest ever -- may be a primary price-pressure factor for oil. My graphic shows an annual...
Germany’s manufacturing capacity utilization is only running at 77.5% in January. Its long-term average since 1991 is 83.2%. GERMANY’S GREEN MADNESS & SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA ARE A DEADLY ONE - TWO PUNCH. https://t.co/S87Xs4GTJY
Can you afford not to know what’s coming next? We are entering one of the most significant geopolitical and economic shifts of our lifetime. Power balances are changing. Conflict cycles are accelerating. Markets and global systems are entering a new phase. Global Forecaster...
Egypt's inflation rate is 11.9%/yr. Egypt's money supply (M3) is growing at 20.6%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range from 11.1%/yr- 15.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target range of 3%/yr-7%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY...
New at THE OVERSHOOT: Tariffs and "International Payments Problems" https://t.co/A8fIZJSUSB It has long been accepted that tariffs (eg Section 122) are an acceptable tool for managing BOP issues. The real question is whether they would be useful for the U.S. in 2026. https://t.co/CDdBRF2zxx
Key takeaways from Druckenmiller - Sees potential for higher long rates thanks to productivity growth - Out of the AI trade at this point - What he learnt from Soros was sizing - Visualizes the future 18-24 months out - Sells if valuation becomes...
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick just discussed tariff policy in New Delhi. After SCOTUS struck down Trump’s emergency tariffs, India stands to be one of the BIGGEST BENEFICIARIES. INDIA = PLAYING THE LONG GAME. https://t.co/ywtbcs3yl1
Macro: BTC $70k. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Lithium bottom: demand +25% as EV/ESS rebound; SQM+Codelco JV raises low-cost supply, tightens cost curve; prices ≈70% below 2022 — overweight low-cost lithium producers. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
#PAKWatch🇵🇰: Trump on intervention in Afghanistan–Pakistan: “I would, but I get along very well with Pakistan—great PM, great general, leaders that I respect. Pakistan is doing terrifically well.” More evidence of Trump’s PIVOT away from India towards Pakistan. https://t.co/aEvLxL5Ygh
🔥We are probably not bullish on gold enough: China's official gold holdings are now worth a record $370 BILLION, doubling in just 1.5 years. The value has more than TRIPLED since 2022. China is buying 10 TIMES more gold than it officially reports👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/china-sold-a-significant-amount-of-us-treasuries-in-2025
SCMP: "Global debt climbed to a record high in 2025, rising at the fastest pace since the pandemic, with China and the United States accounting for a large share of the increase, according to a new report." https://t.co/GSQFwnXnb0
Macro: global growth cools; central banks pause. Key factors: easing inflation, mixed earnings, USD strength. Risks: policy missteps, China slowdown. Trade: short EUR/USD. 📉 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Brent DFL rolling into contango suggests the market is fading the Iran oil disruption risk @Rory_Johnston A US strike will probably still happen But traders aren’t pricing sustained barrels off the market. #Oil #Brent #Iran #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics
The potential U.S. conflict with Iran will create an interesting dilemma regarding weapons re-arming and supply chains. Rare earth elements will come under even greater scrutiny, especially given the already strained trade relationship with China.
Major news to track on February 27, 2026: 1. The Friday Power-Play: Malaysia's Economy in the Crosshairs A critical convergence of geopolitics and capital is reshaping Malaysia’s financial landscape this morning. From high-stakes Cabinet decisions on US tariffs to the largest...
EU proposes CBAM treatment for pre-consumer aluminium and steel scrap to curb circumvention and boost traceability. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/02/eu-cbam-pre-consumer-scrap-proposal.html
February... Silver $SLV: +13% Energy $XLE: +10% Gold $GLD: +9% International Developed $VEA: +6% EM $IEMG: +6% Oil $USO: +3% Bonds $AGG: +2% S&P 500 $SPY: -1% Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: -2% Financials $XLF: -4% Mag 7 $MAGS: -7% Software $IGV: -10% Bitcoin $IBIT: -22% Fartcoin $FART: -31%
It’s been a while since I’ve seen so much focus on the ISM. Our work has over 15 individual series that lead this data (regressions don’t work well out of sample), between 6 and 18 months and another dozen that...
#CubaWatch 🇨🇺: Today, I measure Cuba’s inflation rate at 49.0%/yr. That makes Cuba the WORLD’S FIFTH-HIGHEST INFLATOR. SOCIALISM = POVERTY. https://t.co/62I1XycBU8
The S&P 500 is headed for its first RED month since April 2025. Meanwhile, GOLD is headed for its 8th consecutive GREEN month. That’s gold’s longest winning streak in history. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/sNJYx0tj3z
I discuss market conditions, key markets to watch, core themes and top global macro event risk (including #NFPs) for next week's trading in this week ahead video: https://t.co/lp8DLESugk https://t.co/0HVj5C19GQ
No one cared about the ISM when it was dropping for years while BTC went up. Now that BTC is going down and the ISM has gone up, it’s suddenly the indicator everyone cares about
January’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) was just released. PPI REMAINS ELEVATED at 2.9%/yr. As the Fed pivots away from Quantitative Tightening to Quantitative Easing, it’s having trouble putting the INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/PsHdiaQZzH
PM Viktor Orbán has deployed troops & police to protect Hungary’s critical energy infrastructure. Orbán cites an alleged "oil blockade" & "blackmail" from Ukraine. It’s as clear as the nose on your face that Hungary, a member of NATO, views Ukraine as...
America’s net import reliance for critical minerals in 2025, along with the primary countries supplying them between 2021 and 2024 https://t.co/89QwEHKe16 via @visualcap
Private debt markets have been struggling for some time. These are nonbank lenders, largely in the private equity space, although they do rely upon bank credit. This is one of many fragilities in the financial market and the economy more...
A theme that @myers_nyc is seeing amongst investors globally? "Sell America." "I've never seen sentiment this bearish toward the United States." https://t.co/iJAlPoLTTE
Notable IMO b/c thus far this sell-off narrative seems to be focused solely on how US AI could disrupt the US. No one seems to be worried yet about what happens to US corporate profits if China AI disrupts the US. If...
The 15+ year breakout is sending a very clear message: The global rotation out of US-based assets and into the rest of the world has officially begun, in my view. New macro presentation is out: https://t.co/GY7oyQol42 https://t.co/rypcHQGugR
The Druzhba pipeline, which supplies 100% of Slovakia's oil & 86% of Hungary's oil, remains FRONT & CENTER. Hungarian PM Orban & Slovak PM Fico have both asserted that the pipeline is functional, while Ukraine asserts that the pipeline has not...
50+ slide chartbook to go along with our @ForwardGuidance episodes - posted every week. https://t.co/BewBom4N6L
I run a family account that is very light on profanity, but I'm making an exception here because this is highly relevant re: policy - i.e., the market response to tariff refunds - and is also kinda funny https://t.co/W4w9escVzV https://t.co/5sIpIX72ON
A “serious and responsible discussion” would start with the data, name the trade-offs, and propose fixes. Magical thinking isn’t a program; it’s an alibi. https://t.co/wtjQL4ly9p
Cheering for lower mortgage rates has always been a delicate balance of hoping for payment relief w/o a wider economic downturn. In other words, getting a cheaper 30-year fixed without a big increase in unemployment or a stock market crash. The fact...
The hotter-than-expected headline PPI this morning didn't curb Fed rate cut expectations. The implied cuts through 2026 from Fed Fund futures has edged up a bit. $DXY hasn't taken the fundamental bait for a bearish wedge break though: https://t.co/CgVJLLvWs8
Thanks to Trump’s threats and tariffs, Canada is looking for new partners everywhere. Carney has already visited China, departed for India today, and will head next to Australia and Japan. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE US. https://t.co/UHsis6akCV
The claim by @robinbrooks_j & others that the PBOC is intervening to stop the RMB's advance strikes me as a misunderstanding. This is the 7th month of RMB gains. If PBOC is intervening to "stop" CNY rise, it is not...
The question is NOT "Will AI take all the white-collar jobs or not?" (It won't.) The questions are: 1. "How many white-collar jobs does AI have to take to trigger a consumer credit, & then government receipt & global sovereign...
(PREMIUM) "Tactical Update: February 27, 2026 - Global Extensions..." Foreign markets remain on fire... via The Lyons Share https://t.co/VFNIukbgod https://t.co/jRyXRjyXsc
It is gaslighting to say things are rosy; it is gaslighting to say things are terrible. Some govt policies will take months/years to bear fruit -depending on implementation and follow-through which are far from guaranteed.
The Canadian economy ended the year on a softer note as a sharp decline in business inventories drove down real gross domestic product by an annualized 0.6% in the fourth quarter. The decline was partially offset by increased household spending,...
Striking that China has taken $2 billion off the table since 2021 while the IMF put $2 billion in ... Talk about not using IMF funds to bailout China back during the pandemic turned out to be just that, talk. You...
"Core wholesale prices rose 0.8% in January, much more than expected" https://t.co/LVa2AuC787 "For the full year, core wholesale prices accelerated 3.6%" Big Jan26 drivers: -professional & commercial equipment wholesaling services -Trade services -metals https://t.co/SIuJIRE7bD
The Blind Spot's resident Spaniard says Brits shouldn't worry about Gibraltar turning Spanish. Were that the case, it would set off a series of dominoes that could devastate both Spain and Morocco. https://t.co/gFok91QaFp
Feeling listless and disjointed as I await the inevitable barrage of "#MMT was right all along" posts now that 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below 4%... https://t.co/ANQCCAXJms
Taiwan's currency has depreciated even as Taiwan's current account has soared (to 20% in calendar 2025, with 30% expected in 26). But Taiwan is not alone -- the Korean won is also very very weak even as Samsung...
The PPI is not falling, it has become sticky. It means rates stay higher. That will slow things down. Thus bond yields are falling. Makes sense? God knows https://t.co/XxE0jqRJ3L
"Many sellers simply don’t have much of a choice but to pass on the cost of tariffs. 'At a certain point—because retail is, as you know, a mid-single digit operating margin business—if people’s costs go up by 10%, there aren’t...
