Food Prices Stable Now, Risk Rising Post‑2026 Conflict
Food prices are stable for now, supported by sufficient availability & high stocks, with only marginal inflation across major economies. But if the conflict persists, risks shift forward: higher input costs or shift to other crops will push prices up in late 2026 & into 2027. https://t.co/JcbGabBaN7
US Deadline, Ceasefire Odds Sway Risk Assets, Dollar
The US deadline draws close. It hangs over market activity. It remains binary. A ceasefire will boost risk assets and weigh on the greenback. The opposite is true, as well. Meanwhile, undaunted, the PBOC set the...
Fiscal Strain Drives Rupiah to Record Low
Rupiah at Record Low of 17,080. It’s not just the war. Polisi fiskal memberi bebanan. Between 2025 and April 2026: •Rupiah jatuh 5% in 2025 •Deficit 2.92% of GDP, widest in several years. •Foreign investors sold off bonds •Bank Indonesia (BI) buys govt bonds...
US Reliant on Chinese Minerals; Trump Misreads Oil Leverage
The US needs critical minerals that China controls @gbrew24 Trump has consistently failed to understand that oil leverage is equal or greater He’s very bad at the art of the deal https://t.co/kB0Qw5QWR4
BofA Predicts 0.3% Core Inflation, 1% CPI Rise
BofA: We expect core inflation to increase by 0.3% m/m in March We forecast a 1.0% m/m (0.99% unrounded) increase in headline CPI owing to a 10.6% m/m jump in energy prices. PCE should be cooler but after a hot start to...
War‑Driven Food Prices Shift Slightly, Crisis Not Imminent
Key food commodity prices since US-Iran war started: 🍚 Rice: ⬇️ -6.3% 🌾 Wheat: ⬇️ -0.5% 🥫 Soybean: ⬆️ +0.6% 🌽 Corn: ...
Australian Coal Prices Surge 30% as Asia Shifts From Gas
AUSTRALIA’s coal export prices have risen by around 25-30% compared with the start of the year. Front-month Newcastle coal futures have averaged $137 per tonne so far in April up from $108 in January. Electricity generators across South and East...
Fed Rate Cut Looms, Inflation Cools, Bull Market Awaits
Fed's getting ready to cut rates as inflation cools down. Markets love this combo - cheaper money usually means risk-on mode. Going live at 9am NY to trade this bullish setup with our DOTS indicator showing clear signals. https://t.co/66dSROeuCi https://t.co/23feho9DD6
Swiss Inflation Low, Money Supply Growth on Target
Switzerland’s inflation rate is 0.1%/yr. That's at the lower end of the Swiss target range of 0%-2%/yr. NO SURPRISE. Switzerland’s money supply (M3) just came in at 5.0%/yr. That's within Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 4.4%-6.4%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY...
Germany’s Deficit Swells to €127bn, Driven by Social Spending
Good Morning from Germany, where the public deficit rose to €127bn in 2025, up from €104bn a year earlier. That is the highest level since the 2022 energy crisis. The biggest increases came at the federal and local government levels....
2026 S&P Outlook: Down Year with Late‑Year Opportunities
Coming up on @thestreetpro Why 2026 Looks Like A Down Year for the S & P Index * Though the negatives are accumulating, a few stocks are approaching buyable levels * "Slugflation" is more likely than ever - with economic growth...
China’s Courts Curb Forced Sales, Hiding True Mortgage Defaults
Bloomberg: "The moves [by local courts to limit the volume of forced property sales by slowing the number of cases involving defaulted mortgages] underscore how China’s local institutions are working to limit the damage of a yearslong property crisis that...
Petrodollar Death Rants Are Wishful, Not Insightful
🧵There’s been an acute breakout of death of the petrodollar thought pieces over the weekend. This should have discerning investors thinking twice. Not about the dollar, however. About piling into an obviously crowded and extremely unoriginal perspective that is mostly...
More Bank Staff, Lower Pay Stalls Chinese Consumption
Interesting story. While employee numbers at nine joint-stock banks in China climbed last year, total compensation actually declined, by 1.4%. I don't know how typical this is, but it does suggest why it has been so hard to accelerate consumption...
Regional Blocs Form New Multi‑Hub Global Trade Order
In case you missed the posting of my new eBook over Easter weekend👇https://t.co/AzOGN20mu3 The April 2025 US tariffs triggered global trade conflict. This column introduces World War Trade: Conflict, Containment, and the Emergent World Trading Order, a new CEPR Rapid...
Iran's Moves
What Iran means for the dollar: a perfect storm for the petrodollar - Deutsche Bank Research Institute https://t.co/gVdGKCUzyc Why have fiat as an intermediary when you could trade oil tokens for wheat tokens (or whatever) ? https://t.co/ocO6m7zPVd
Potash Prices Remain Stable Amid Fertilizer Market Shifts
CHARTS OF THE DAY: Not every fertiliser price is going up. Back in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, nitrogen fertilisers (urea and ammonia) rose shaprly. AT THE SAME TIME, potash fertiliser (potassium chloride) also surged. This time, potash fertilisers are little changed....
IMF Urges Nations to Fix Domestic Imbalances Independently
1/15 IMF: "If coordination proves difficult, the best course of action for each country is clear: start addressing domestic imbalances now, regardless of what others do." This is one of several discordant lines in an otherwise interesting paper. https://t.co/Yn79aOWNzr
Pakistan's Debt Service Will Swallow All Tax Revenue by 2030
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan's public debt servicing is SOARING. By 2030, debt servicing is expected to consume ALL of Pakistan’s tax revenue. PAKISTAN = NEAR COLLAPSE. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/DfYw73ks3A
Pakistan Shuts Shops Early as Qatar LNG Supply Stalls
Pakistan will close shops early in its latest energy-savings measures 🇵🇰⚡ Markets, malls and shops across most of the country will shut by 8pm Pakistan received 99% of its LNG from Qatar last year. Qatar has halted exports for over a month...
Prepare Now: 2026 Hormuz Shock Will Upend Budgets
We‘ve Only Just Begun in the words of Carol Carpenter. This is a long game. Risk managers need to be preparing their boards now for a traumatic 2026. Ditch your budget from 2025 and your growth targets. Run a strategy...
Erdogan Warns US‑Israeli Strikes Could Ignite Regional Fire
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: On February 28th, President Erdogan condemned the US–Israeli strikes on Iran and warned that if diplomacy and common sense do not prevail, the region could be dragged into a “ring of fire.” ERDOGAN'S 'RING OF FIRE' WAS...
Drop in GDP/CPI Triggers Volatility—Protect Risk
GDP and CPI are dropping this week. This is where volatility spikes. Gold moves on inflation. Nasdaq moves on interest rates. Expect fast moves, liquidity grabs, and fakeouts. Wait for confirmation and protect your risk.
China Buys Iran's Oil, Sustaining Sanctions‑busting War Funding
How China Helped Iran Cushion the Blow of Sanctions and Fund Its War Machine—Over the past half decade, China has provided Iran with a financial lifeline by buying most of its oil @RoryWSJ @BrianSpegele @austinramzy https://t.co/36s4JdH6hU https://t.co/36s4JdH6hU
Gulf States Pivot to New Allies After
The Gulf Arab states may seek alliances with Turkey, China, India, & Japan says @MahmoudianArman The US war ruined their futures by destroying foreign investment based on perception of stability #Gulf #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis #MiddleEast https://t.co/GyYMSu7OKQ
Iran Vows to Press Attacks Despite Any Concessions
A deal looks unlikely Iran believes the attacks will continue no matter what it concedes. Tehran is prepared for this war to continue, writes @gbrew24 https://t.co/uo1jq4IVjS #Iran #Hormuz #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis
Allies’ Trust in U.S. Plummets, Eyes Turn Away
It will be a while before America can look another ally directly in the eye Source: Visual Capitalist https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/ig02-countries-losing-trust-in-the-u-s/
War Delays Petrochemical Recovery for Years, Not Weeks
"12 to 20 percent of global petrochemical output that is now offline will not return until the war ends.. heat exchangers are manufactured, & the utilities are rebuilt. That timeline is not weeks. It is years. And Tuesday is today" Looks...
SPY Bullish on Earnings, AI
Macro: SPY supported by ~17.5% S&P earnings growth and AI/NVIDIA outperformance. Technicals are bullish but 150‑day EMA caps. Risk: higher oil → inflation, Fed hawkish shift. Trade: buy pullbacks; stop <150‑day EMA. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Philippines' Inflation Spike Highlights Energy Import Risks
Philippine inflation sees biggest upward shift (from previous month) in 30 years. This underscores how quickly macro outlook can shift for net energy importers https://t.co/uyJL7TG4tv
Iranian Rial Gains 9% Amid War, Defying Claims
BNE Intellinews claims that the Iranian rial is "losing ground as military strikes hit infrastructure across the country". WRONG. FACT: Since the beginning of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% vs the USD. https://t.co/6tlVgFd2Lt
Stagflation, Debt Surge Prompt Rate Cuts, Boost Real Assets
Ladies and gentlemen: Stagflation at record debt levels. Now imagine being forced to cut rates as inflation reaccelerates. Real assets are about to get very interesting. https://t.co/KMgGEdt8ru https://t.co/hbpbojd6Yg
Trump Tariffs Trigger Another $15‑20 B in Farm Subsidies
Another $15-$20 billion in US farmer subsidies may be coming, thanks (again) to Trump's tariffs: https://t.co/872jQQ9zXA https://t.co/q8my1D6OiM
Buy DXY on Break Above 100.20 as USD Rises
Macro: USD strengthens as global stress persists. Key factors: robust US data, rising oil and yields. Risks: Middle East tensions and higher inflation. Trade: Buy DXY on a clean break above 100.20; targets 101–103. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights:...
Blaming “America Inc.” Fuels Global Price Surge
ICYMI - My thoughts in the FT on what happens if "America Inc." is now blamed for higher global prices https://t.co/SqaqFvPCfI
Jamie Dimon's Top Five 2026 Risks
MyPoV: always worth a read. Five Risks Jamie Dimon Is Worried About in 2026 https://t.co/iskXH0hs1z
Macro Volatility Returns: Inflation Threats and Earnings
Stabilization Into A Trap 💫Searching For A Bottom 💫Another Trump Ultimatum 💫Mechanical Flows Waiting For Gamma Flip 💫The New Macro-Driven Volatility Regime 💫Earnings - Opportunity or As Good As It Gets 💫The Week Ahead: Inflation Threatens https://t.co/Y1dcSGIrPf
Investors Prefer Inflation Swaps Over Sketchy 1‑Year TIPS
Glad folks are finally using the inflation swap.. not the often-sketchy 1yr TIPS breakeven rate... remember this chart that made the rounds in March lol https://t.co/pHxDS0B0gu
Panama Canal Delays Threaten 40% Freight, 20% Energy Exports
Bridge day not going as planned 40% of US container freight passes through the Panama Canal and 20% of US oil and natural gas exports do as well
Japan Commits Billions to U.S., Targets Tennessee Valley
Japan has agreed to invest hundreds of billions in America over the next few years. This is one of their investments - bound for the Tennessee Valley
EU Tried Pricing Iraqi Oil in Euros, US Halted Independence
Many on X seem to forget that Europe tried to separate from the US 26 years ago, when the EU arranged for Iraq to sell oil in EUR instead of USD (Source: CNN Int’l👇) The EU would have been independent of...
Innovation Requires Production: Rethink USD Reserve for Reindustrialization
“To innovate, you must make.” -INTC CEO Andy Grove, 2011 The reality is we cannot and will not reindustrialize unless we change USD reserve status structure to a system with a neutral reserve asset instead of USTs; it’s a fundamental double-entry...
Trump Lifts Oil Sanctions on Iran, Russia Amid Hormuz Closure
Following the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, Pres. Trump has EASED oil sanctions on Iran and Russia. Hopefully, this will be the start of an unwinding of the international sanctions regime. SANCTIONS = ILL FOUNDED = NEVER WORK. https://t.co/JXBVftRedd
Global Headline Inflation Now 3.3%, Core at 2.3%
GS: Our 2026 Global Headline Inflation Forecast Has Risen to 3.3% Since the Start of the War, While Our Global Core Inflation Forecast Has Increased More Moderately to 2.3% https://t.co/lqYe3mgu26
Trump’s Iran Fiasco Fuels US Oil and LNG Profits
Who Benefits from Trump's Iran Debacle? US Oil, LNG Companies Who could have guessed this would happen? Narrator: Everyone. Like, all human beings everywhere. #uspoli #cdnpoli https://markhamhislop.substack.com/p/who-benefits-from-trumps-iran-debacle
Iran Seeks Stablecoin Payments for Hormuz Transits
I’ve seen reports that Iran is demanding payment in stablecoins for Hormuz transits. Does anyone know the addresses or chain details?
Rupee Rally Stalls, Marks Biggest 5‑day Drop Since 2022
The Indian rupee's rally seems to have run out of steam. $USDINR ran a 5-day retreat (rupee a rally) through Friday and notched the biggest 5-day drop since Nov 2022. Put in for a bounce today... https://t.co/qewdcUneMg
Post‑pandemic Inflation Driven by Services Wages, Models Miss
Fed research suggests the inflation engine may be running differently across advanced economies since the pandemic: 1/ More categories continue to see price growth above 3%, with broad-based wage growth in services appearing to be a key driver 2/ Even categories with...
ISM Services Shows Rising Costs, Still Resilient Growth
Today’s ISM Services data reinforces the dual narrative of rising input prices and a resilient real economy. (The one caveat is that while the economy remains expansionary, the momentum wasn’t as robust as in previous months.) #economy #markets #growth #inflation
Japan's 10‑Year Yield Peaks, Yen Slumps to 160
Japanese Government 10-Year Yield Highest since 1997, Yen at 160 despite Intervention Threats, But Bond Vigilantes Still Dead. Inflation and deteriorating yen pushed the BOJ into hawkish stance, and bond yields are on their own https://t.co/sF7g5sRsaq https://t.co/XX7yIUKRhS