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Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
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Every morning
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Europe is once again reminded of a structural vulnerability. As I told @politico: “The fact is still that Europe imports most of its energy from other countries. And I think events like this just highlight how problematic, how risky that is as a strategy and how unsustainable. https://t.co/vtXkytiQyD
Dollar Jumps on War, but Treasuries are No Safe Haven: There is one fundamental driver today and that is the Middle East war. After finishing last week on a soft note, the greenback has rallied. It is up by 0.5%...
Maybe, just maybe, there is a cyclical component to the past 5 months of underperformance in the largest names and momentum factors. A turn in the macro cycle usually leads to a turn in market leadership. We went 3 years...
Ten-year treasury yields are back above 4%. Very short-lived reaction to the conflict in Middle East. https://t.co/CSDtKBWAFO
Geopolitical shocks feel scary… but history says bottoms come faster than you think. Avg S&P drawdown: -4.6% Avg time to bottom: 19 days Avg recovery: 40 days 6–12 months later? Mostly positive.
Post-COVID, there was hope for an another roaring 20s. It’s been more like the 1970s.
A cold spell in Europe in March would definitely put the cat among the pigeons, but worth remembering that it takes a while for gas prices to feed through to consumer prices, so "flash in the pan" shift won't matter,...
Low oil prices for much of the past year have helped cool inflation & given Trump license to tout more affordable prices at the pump. But if there was one scenario most likely to upset that trend, it was a...
Very interesting > The Strait of Hormuz is not just oil - but also LNG. https://t.co/jlv7Hrp9LJ
The Dollar is rallying on risk-off price action, including against EM (black). Markets are not yet differentiating between oil exporters and oil importers, so everyone's getting hit in EM, but that'll soon give way to markets discerning between these two. https://t.co/AOkYSZgAuL...
Mostly red arrows around the world as weekend Middle East events have the “war time trade” in motion, with silver/gold/oil higher and $SPX futures -70. Key is whether $SPX holds 6780–6790 to keep the upper range intact, or if it...
The strikes happened. Charles Myers laid out exactly what was coming — and now he’s the person to tell you what markets are still getting wrong. Steven Ehrlich sat with him hours before it happened. His full breakdown of what...
March 2, 2026 Economic Events : 0945 – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb): Exp 51.2 | Prior 51.2 1000 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb): Exp 51.7 | Prior 52.6 1000 – ISM Manufacturing Prices: Exp 60.6 | Prior 59.0 1130 – ATL Fed GDPNow (Q1):...
🚨 TRADERS ALERT 🚨 📊 What to Watch This Week 🗓️ Mon: Iran war fallout + ISM Manufacturing 🗓️ Tue: Fed speakers 🗓️ Wed: ADP + ISM Services 🗓️ Thu: Jobless Claims 🗓️ Fri: NFP + Retail Sales + more Fed speak But make no mistake -...
$USD rallied on the war. Equities slid. Gold and oil jump. US Treasuries are not the safe haven. With decapitation strike on Iran, which the US said it had destroyed its nuclear capability last June, the end...
RFI preferred: similar REIT CEFs face a lower-rates tailwind; RFI shows larger mean-reversion upside vs RQI. Risk: rate/timing, leverage. Trade: buy RFI for yield + discount recovery 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Ukraine could well ask that the UAE show some reciprocal good will by reducing its systemic enablement of Russian revenue generation.
Prolonged tension in the Middle East. Rising oil prices, if sustained, and a weaker Rand. Add the increased fuel levies announced in the budget speech on top of macro concerns, and taking the governor’s conservative nature and the new 3% inflation...
Elevated volatility as oil spikes and heavy Treasury settlements. S&P gamma at 6800; VIX resists ~20. Risk: higher oil, weaker productivity → yields up. Trade: buy SPX dips near 6800. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
After Iran’s strike on a Saudi Aramco refinery, capital is rotating aggressively into metals. Gold has reclaimed $5,400, up 2.22%, adding roughly $1 trillion in market value in just 6 hours. Silver has surged to $96, up 4.32%, adding $250 billion in...
Saudi Arabia has reportedly shut down Ras Tanura, one of the world’s largest oil refineries, following an Iranian drone strike. This is not just a regional headline. Ras Tanura is a critical node in global energy supply. Any prolonged disruption could...
The 2025 Employees' Provident Fund (KWSP) dividends experienced a slight decline to 6.15% for both conventional and syariah accounts. CEO Ahmad Zulqarnain Onn attributed this reduction to: 1. stagnant growth within the local stock market and the 2. strengthening of the...
The Iranian conflict highlights another reason why Net Xero is critical. Ramping up renewables reduces our dependency on global fossil fuel markets. Pretty simple really. Petrol will become a luxury purchase
🚨 IRAN WAR DAY 2 — MONDAY MARKET OPEN 🚨 Day 2 confirms the war is widening, not containing. ~48 Iranian officials confirmed dead including Khamenei. Iran is retaliating across the Gulf — hitting Dubai, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and targeting...
🚨Has the South Korean market gone TOO FAR? Foreign investors dumped a record 6.8 trillion won ($4.7 billion) of South Korean stocks on Friday, the largest single-day selloff EVER.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-dropped-amid-rising-ai-and-geopolitical-uncertainty-weekly-market-recap-trading-week-09-20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ to Shed Light on What Lies Ahead for Economy—Beijing’s target-setting takes place against a high-stakes backdrop https://t.co/sxAHsLFpcV https://t.co/sxAHsLFpcV
Geopolitical shocks meet key labor and retail data this week. February jobs and January sales could seal the Fed's rate outlook amid Middle East tensions. 🟢 Open https://t.co/NUBk2v4rcI
18% of global air freight capacity has been taken out of the market by conflict in the Middle East this weekend.
This comes after several other positions in Syria and Iraq have been vacated by U.S. forces in recent months. Among those are Al Asad air base, which Iran targeted in 2020 after the U.S. killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani.
Back to Investment Markets in light of Iran-US-Israel War 📈 "If you don't have a clear game plan, you shouldn't be taking any action at the market open... If your game plan is to reduce risk across the board, again open is...
In his latest Greed & Fear FLASH, my good friend Chris Wood wrote: "The US-Israeli attack on Iran... [is] extremely risky politically for the US president, most particularly as his MAGA base is against overseas wars." https://t.co/MyysVy5Ukr
“At a time when Tokyo and Beijing appear to be drifting further apart politically, Japanese capital is moving in the opposite direction…Japanese foreign direct investment into China surged by 55.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025.” https://t.co/osyTCAOqOp
Thoughts? The Iran war and oil crisis affect your money across four key areas: oil prices and inflation, stock market volatility, cryptocurrency movements, and overlooked opportunities in uranium and energy security stocks.
On the opening of the Intercontinental Exchange Market in London, BRENT CRUDE SURGED. Since the close on Friday, it's up over 7%, trading at $78 / barrel. THE WINDS OF WAR = HIGHER OIL PRICES = MORE AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMS FOR TRUMP. https://t.co/H6nboenO4u
GOLD & SPX TRADES UPDATE: Booked profits right at the weekly open in anticipation of gap fills on both & middle east tensions holding lesser impact than everyone's fearing. On SPX , i am leaning neutral to slightly bearish , not much...
Talk of the death of King Dollar is premature. Exhibit #1: China. It runs a large current account surplus, and is accumulating a mountain of predominately dollar-denominated foreign assets at record rates. Those who YAK about DE-DOLLARIZATION should start to FOLLOW THE...
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson on Chinese and Russian support for Iran: “[China and Russia] may send additional naval assets to assist Iran in closing the Strait of Hormuz. They are continuing to supply intelligence … and critical minerals that Iran...
I’m calling it now: Japan will amend Article 9 before 2030 to formally recognize the Self-Defense Forces in the Constitution
Interesting piece from Bloomberg's Shuli Ren, on the risk that Asia's wildly undervalued currencies might have an explosive appreciation ... 1/3 https://t.co/j9M2wdl5ED
100 Egyptian pounds equals 2 dollars. You try to spend money and have to deal with conversion rates All countries’ currency is just paper backed by nothing Dollars are printed and you are taxed to fund wars you don’t support The whole...
If there is a real risk off move (& it is still an if) the structure of the inflows that have covered the US current account deficit will matter. Foreign buying of US equity surged in 2025, and no where more...
Further to the prior post: A classic initial market reaction to this weekend’s eruption of military conflict in the Middle East: Oil has surged over 10%, the Dollar has strengthened, and Dow futures have opened down some 500 points. #economy #markets #oil...
YARDENI: “.. in our short-war scenario, oil prices should fall in the coming weeks after a ceasefire .. boosting US consumer spending and benefiting global economies .. The weekend’s Middle East developments make us even more confident in our Roaring...
The old geopolitical playbook (USD up, gold up, oil up, bond yields down, stocks down) is on for now.
Markets are back in crisis mode with the US–Israel strikes on Iran dominating headlines: global risk assets are reacting, oil prices are spiking, and S&P volatility is alive. Join us LIVE at 6pm EST as we break down how ES futures...
Foreign investors poured a net $1.55 TRILLION into USD assets last year, up 31.4% from 2024. The oft repeated “Sell America” and “End of King Dollar” narratives don’t align with the facts. Hanke's 95% Rule: 95% of what you read in the...
Why are European countries just now standing up to Russia's oil revenue and shadow fleet after the war just crossed its 4 year anniversary? What has changed? Has the US done more to help Ukraine in the last year than...
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan said Netanyahu’s “provocations” triggered the US–Israeli strikes on Iran. Erdoğan said that Israel is “poisoning the process,” and urged an immediate ceasefire to prevent a wider regional war. https://t.co/y2YtJLqeUy
I delayed - and rewrote a few times - my week ahead article. Finally posted up (and here are some of the charts that I speak to): Will US Strike on Iran Change the Market’s Risk Profile? https://t.co/UZu6CPkjrl https://t.co/1Kccta89jL
By deepening ties with the EU, Japan, Brazil, and Canada, India is WISELY HEDGING ITS GEOPOLITICAL BETS. STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY PREVAILS AGAIN. https://t.co/TfGLoGF8lA
