US‑China Year Delayed, Focus Shifts to May
Did a lengthy interview with @AmChamSh Insight magazine on what was supposed to be the "Year of US-China". But, ya know, events interjected in this topsy turvy world. Still, I'm sure we will be turning our attention to this come May: https://t.co/Rx9re0nXq6
She’s Actually Talking About Betting on NFP Data
Many people making fun of this but I think she just means betting on monthly BLS payroll data (NFP)
Iran Controls Hormuz as US Ammo Runs Low
The ceasefire is good The gap between Iran's and the US's needs are vast The US is low on ammo That suggests that Hormuz is now an Iranian waterway It's way too early to start guessing about insurance markets @GreenBayTrail_
Philippines Faces Energy Crisis Amid US‑Israeli Conflict
Since 2008, Philippines’s economy has put in a strong performance. But, thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, PH is going to take a hit. It has ~50 days of oil reserves left and has declared a national energy emergency. PH should send...
Iran Conflict Sparks 2026 Global Food Price Surge
Iran war impacting farmers in Iowa. This is an example of how food prices will escalate globally in the rest of 2026. This plays out badly for farmers in Iowa making a loss. But it’s an even greater tragedy for...
Ceasefire Limits Oil Flow, Iran Holds Economy Hostage
The terms of the ceasefire indicate that the rush will be a trickle of 5 mmb/d @Amena__Bakr Once things start moving as you say. Iran keeps the global economy hostage. Art of the Deal. https://t.co/V5mSMD8qOx
IRGC Slashes Hormuz Flow to a Quarter
15 ships per day thru Hormuz 5 mmb/d of oil (vs 20) 2.5 bcf/d LNG (vs 10) That's a starvation diet. Controlled by the IRGC #LNG #NaturalGas #EnergyMarkets #OilMarkets #Geopolitics https://t.co/ej80nFO2XR
Hormuz Closure Irreversible: Once Shut, No Reopening
The Strait of Hormuz May have been “shut” like a tap. It cannot be turned back “on” like a tap.
Hormuz Rerouting Offsets Shortfall, yet 13 MMbpd Remains
Flow through the Strait of Hormuz doesn't need to re-reach pre-war levels to normalize global balances thanks to rerouting (and constant Iran flow) But we still have ~13 MMbpd of production shut-in That's how much more we'll need to push through Hormuz...
Oil Prices Dip After US‑Iran Ceasefire News
Please see the CNBC chart below for the initial oil market reaction to the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. #economy #oil #energy #markets
Markets Rally When President De‑Escalates, War Hurts Business
It's just an utterly relentless pattern: Every time the President de-escalates in the Middle East, the stockmarket in the U.S. rejoices. It's like they think war is bad for business. https://t.co/tuQpxlqjGB
US‑Israeli Strike Provoked Hormuz Closure, Not Iranian Aggression
Why was the Strait of Hormuz shut down? It’s because Israel & the United States attacked Iran. In the Western media, the story is spun as if Iran initiated the closure. Iran is just counterattacking. The original cause is clearly the US-Israeli attack...
Used Car Prices Soar, Signaling New Inflation Pressures
Used Vehicle Wholesale Prices Jumped. That’s How it Started in 2020 when Broad Inflation Took Off. These new inflation pressures suddenly building up in the pipeline are concerning https://t.co/B4HOh7mQGF https://t.co/9BkcLbGOSG
Hormuz Ceasefire Permits Mere 10‑15 Ships Daily
From account close to Tehran—not saying it’s correct, but it’s the first real colour we’re getting on what any interim Hormuz reopening during the ceasefire could look like: “During the two-week ceasefire, only about 10 to 15 ships will be permitted...
US Trade Deal with Iran: Biggest Policy Blunder
Trying to catch up because we went out to dinner at DQ as a family in case Trump did his "a whole civilization will die tonight" demented bullshit and the world changed. Thankfully, he TACO'd. So, the agreement that Trump...
Future Impacts Already Set Despite Strait Reopening
Even if the Strait fully opens and stays open…the ramifications 6-9 months down the road are already baked in. https://t.co/wlXmGv0rls
Chinese Banks' Net Dollar Exposure Surges Dramatically
To be blunt, no one gave this memo to China's banks External dollar assets up, external dollar liabilities down -- net long dollars way up. and we already know from other banking data that the dollar long increased significantly in...
Iran, Oman Authorized to Charge Strait of Hormuz Fees
JUST IN: Iran and Oman can now impose fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz under the ceasefire deal, per a regional official.
Copper Valued at 4% of Global Debt, Highly Undervalued
Very intriguing chart. The copper market sits at roughly 4% of global debt — still multiples below prior peaks. A simple way to frame just how undervalued the metal is relative to today’s macro imbalances. Now layer in the structural demand tailwinds. Game on. https://t.co/wv1i1hARmY
China Trims BoP Surplus; US Deficit Likely Understated
I have noted, with concern, how China shades down its BoP goods surplus after a 2022 statistical adjustment. It should also be noted that the preponderance of evidence (see today's reporting by @AnaSwanson ) suggests that the US customs deficit is...
Ceasefire Sparks Asian Rally; Vietnam Gains EM Upgrade
Good morning, I woke up to the best news ever - we got a two-week ceasefire that has lit Asian and risks assets that have been languishing on the closure of the Strait. The Korean won is rallying the hardest, followed...
Migration Slowdown Turns Pandemic Housing Boom Into Demand Shock
Many housing markets that saw the biggest deceleration in net domestic migration after the Pandemic Housing Boom still have positive domestic inflows—but the slowdown has still delivered a negative housing demand shock https://t.co/u4W9wWipUU
Stay Cash-Ready: Capital Shifts to Energy, Compute, Data
Thoughts? We discuss how geopolitical tensions and Trump's deadline are creating major market volatility. We break down what the average person misses: how to watch the dollar, yields, and capital flows to stay ahead of the smart money. We explore...
Iran's Oil Pressure Backfires, Trump Gains From Ceasefire
Iran’s strategy all along has been to impose an unbearable economic cost on the US if Trump continued the war via oil and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Now, oil is down ~20% well below $100 a barrel. From...
Iran Claims to Guide Ships Through Hormuz, Knows Mine Locations
🚨 Iran says their military will coordinate passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire. -probably because they know where the mines are...
Oil's Steepest One‑day Drop Since 1991 Gulf War
Excluding Covid, we're looking at the biggest one day plunge in oil since the first Gulf War in 1991 https://t.co/gjT5CUgwkE
Tariff Threats Spike Energy Prices, Fuel Summer Inflation
This is the tariff playbook all over again. Step 1 - make a crazy threat. Step 2 - make a series of "deals" threatening armageddon two weeks out. The difference here is oil and gas prices won't just revert to...
Iran Offers Two‑Week Safe Passage Through Hormuz, Coordination Required
Iran says safe passage via Hormuz is “possible” for two weeks 🚨 … but must be via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations (So far, no loaded LNG tanker has gone through Hormuz in over...
Jefferson Delivers Most Hawkish Fed Speech Since 2023
According to Fedlock, today's speech from Fed Governor Jefferson was his most hawkish since 2023 https://t.co/rgs6erEO5l
Iran Agrees to Ceasefire if Attacks Stop
Official statement from Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs Ceasefire accepted if attacks on Iran are halted. https://t.co/WMrLNizvYq
Open Hormuz Strait Triggers Massive Eastward Market Rush
If the Strait of Hormuz is open, get ready to watch for a stampede to the East. https://t.co/3rohg52Jti
SPX Gains 2% Post‑Ceasefire, Reclaims 200‑Day SMA
Big 2% rally from the $SPX after-hours following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US/Israel and Iran. Back above the 200-day SMA. Now the burden is on markets to capitalize on the 'good news' https://t.co/djEZLD8zgj
Iran Agrees to Ceasefire, Reopening Strait of Hormuz Soon
*IRAN ACCEPTS PAKISTAN'S TWO-WEEK CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL: NYT -- "ceasefire will come into force when Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz" -- So, this chart will be at zero tomorrow, and ships can start moving immediately? https://t.co/3VFPp2rq6x
Iran Claims Open Strait, Demands Payment; Trump Disagrees
And this is why it’s hard to believe that Iran has agreed to not regulate passage at this point because it’s Irans primary leverage. In Irans eyes the strait IS open—you just have to pay them & the insurance companies....
$2 Million Toll
and the new point of contention? the $2 million+ tolls on traversing the Strait of Hormuz?
Oil Slumps 12% After Trump‑Iran Ceasefire Opens Hormuz
Oil prices plummet 12% (and counting) after Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran 🇺🇸 🤝 🇮🇷 The deal is subject to an immediate opening of Hormuz https://t.co/idSwDqTWxx
No One Cares if Oil Passes the Strait
I guess there's zero interest in whether oil is actually going to move through strait unobstructed ...
Ceasefire Triggers Oil and Bond Yield Declines
Two-week ceasefire leads to drops in oil and bond yields. #oil #bonds #economics #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Fed Dovish Shift Boosts Bullish Momentum, Watch ES
The Fed's dovish shift is music to bulls' ears as inflation continues cooling. Markets are already pricing in easier monetary policy ahead. Tomorrow we'll be watching how ES reacts to this momentum using our DOTS indicator for precise entries. https://t.co/66dSROf2rQ...
Dollar Exists to Guard Capitalism, Not Just Cover Deficits
There are so many layers to the dollar story that transcend conventional market economic dynamics. Until investors realise this I do believe they will be caught out by narratives that serve political agendas not reality. Crucially, most “end of the dollar”...
IMF to Slash Global Growth Forecast Amid Iran War
The IMF is poised to cut its forecasts for global growth as a result of the Iran war, and sees danger in a world economy that’s ill-equipped to respond to shocks, the Kristalina Georgieva says https://t.co/KcfFIhk4sU via @jdorosario @sdonnan https://t.co/1P3OgECM3e
Strait Closure Fuels Market Drag; Iran Refuses Leverage Trade‑off
Two points that remain top of mind for me. How do you solve these? 1. Delays that don't open the Strait keeps negative carry on the stock market https://t.co/xqJjSx51rF 2. Iran is not going to open the Strait for a ceasefire and forego...
China Vetoes Iran Resolution, Says It Ignores Root Cause
The Chinese Ambassador to the United Nations explains why China vetoed the UN Security Council condemning Iran for closing the Strait of Hormuz: “The resolution does not even touch the root cause of this situation… “ https://t.co/6uKTQNN5Uz
IMF Flags Rising Imbalances, Revives Currency Manipulation Label
Happy to see the IMF has noticed the expansion of global current account imbalances -- And guess what, the IMF seems to have rediscovered the idea that currency manipulation can drive imbalances (though manipulation has been renamed "macro-industrial policy" ......
Iran's Oil Flow Restored, Excluding Genocide Coalition
Just as Iran was taken out of SWIFT money traffic in 2011, the coalition of genocide has been taken out of HORMUZ Oil traffic. The Strait remains wide open for those nations who PAY and those who are not participating in...
Iran Strikes Saudi Petrochemical Plant, U.S. Media Silent
Whoa I missed this: Saudi Arabian petrochemical plant struck by Iran at Jubail Industrial City Not reported in mainstream U.S. press but from sources generally accurate (AFP, by way of Times of Israel) https://t.co/5PXGglvqpg
Today's Brent Mirrors 2014 Levels After Inflation Adjustments
Dated Brent was at ~$105 in April 2014, before the BIG shale-induced rout in crude prices. Adjusting for inflation, that's roughly where we are today. And the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. (Also the lapsed appropriations note at the bottom of the BLS'...
Iran Deal Won’t Reverse Permanent Economic Damage
Even a quick Iran deal won't undo the damage already done. Stock losses, years of elevated oil prices, and a $350B defense budget increase that quietly translates to $3–4K in added taxes per household. The economy doesn't just snap back. Some of...
Oil Benchmark Hits Record, Reflecting Iran War Shortages
A key benchmark for physical oil has surged to its highest level on record, showing that global crude markets are increasingly pricing in supply shortages caused by the Iran war. https://t.co/OCII5LIP6Z https://t.co/V7iFSd47Gu
Iran Deal Won’t Reverse Last Years’ Economic Damage
Even a quick Iran deal won't undo the damage already done. Stock losses, years of elevated oil prices, and a $350B defense budget increase that quietly translates to $3–4K in added taxes per household. The economy doesn't just snap back. Some of...