Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
I'll be on with @MariaBartiromo tomorrow am- 7:10 EST on @FoxBusiness discussing the surge in cross-asset volatility given the Iran Strike & what it means for markets
The yuan's appreciation against the dollar over the last few months looks to have pulled China's real exchange rate back to its end 2024 levels (February is my estimate based on the CFETS index) 1/ https://t.co/KtxZcE3nT7
Strait of Hormuz Traffic March 2, 2026 The past 24 hour ship passages through the Strait of #Hormuz after #Iran declared its closed.
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is running 70% below normal. Roughly 150 tankers are stranded in the Strait. If that’s not bad enough, the IRGC adviser, Sardar Jabari, stated, “Not a single drop of oil will leave the region.” https://t.co/A4WO3ah53J
I very much agree with this. For most products and for most countries (the US is now an exception, China has been a bit of an exception) tariffs are already generally low, so the incremental impact of a classic free trade...
“Right now, the economy is doing fine, asset prices are high…I think the probabilities of something going south are more than other people think..I think inflation will cause the economic downturn:” JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon https://t.co/xB4HN6ITSk
After Trump’s tariffs were ruled unlawful by the US Supreme Court, he is now dragging his feet and refusing to refund Americans who were illegally TAXED by tariffs. https://t.co/vlXQUbwjEo
Some basic oil shock math, focusing on the impact on global trade ... Remember that we are starting from an unusually low surplus in the fuel exporting economies ... 1/ https://t.co/WIeQBspqCY
According to @Polymarket, there is a 48% chance that the Iranian regime will fall before 2027. Trump is engaged in a risky operation. THE HISTORY OF REGIME CHANGES = FAILURE. https://t.co/xdpgxVS4Gd
.@Aligarciaherrer: “They cut prices aggressively, not because they’re getting leaner…but because everyone else is doing it and they fear losing customers…Unproductive companies are hurting the productive ones, which is…not good for the Chinese economy.” https://t.co/ZakESJy4Fc
"Tariffs Force Down Heavy Equipment Sales and Jobs" https://t.co/gAxfFeOvbe "it is more economical to build a forklift overseas, import it and pay the tariff" "multiple layers of tariffs on inputs have made it even more expensive to build machinery on American soil"...
Jeff Gundlach: “My recommendation is that US Dollar based investors should be investing in foreign markets in foreign currencies. Because the US Dollar appears to be in a long-term bear market” https://t.co/b2PwOxuvyI
ISM vs Bitcoin relationship is more correlation than causation. The difference today compared to past cycles is credit spreads were wide to start the PMI rebound, due to prior growth scares that led to risk off environments. Since 2022, spreads...
“It’s very obvious that there’s a lot of fragility in the market… and it’s very hard to bet on crypto if you think that the equity market might take a real bath here.” https://t.co/oUCYvsFWWo
Iran says the Strait is closed. The U.S. military says it’s open. Reality: you still have to convince a captain to sail it. Ten years ago, shore-side managers could (and did) twist arms. Today? Nobody wants to become TikTok famous for twisting arms...
Is the market already done with the US-Iran war? Wall Street erased early losses while gold and crude oil recoiled from panic highs. Now what? #OilPrices #Crude #Iran #IranWar #stockmarkets #Dollar #Macro https://t.co/sUv93zfPtT
Kharg Island is a 'choke point' for Iran's oil exports, says VanEck Funds CEO https://t.co/rI4JYhLG71
"Oil market not too worried" @Bear__85 "You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you" --Leon Trotsky https://t.co/G26AVdQkOv
Oil, LNG Prices Spike as Iran Conflict Continues Ron Bousso, senior columnist for Thomson Reuters, discusses oil, LNG markets and the likelihood that Middle Eastern tensions will keep prices high. #IranWar #IranIsraelWar https://youtu.be/TyuJU-0pvIo
“Today is day 834 of the Red Sea crisis and day 3 of the Hormuz crisis,” shipping analyst Lars Jensen
European gas just posted its biggest one-day jump since the Ukraine invasion. Up ~50% as Hormuz security stalls LNG shipping. Energy shocks don’t disappear — they compound. Just when inflation felt contained, volatility returns. Cost-of-living isn’t gone. It was dormant. #NaturalGas #TTF #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis...
US Senator Steve Daines on Montana palladium mine, in the wake of US tariffs on Russian supplies of the metal used to make semiconductors and other materials:
Despite the strike on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery, Aramco’s Ras Tanura facility, the oil market remained relatively calm throughout the day. Stay tuned. https://t.co/HzbD8gLZNn
Iran commander says Strait of Hormuz closed, vows to hit ships trying to pass, report says: CNBC $USO $XLE
For the first time since 1992, France will expand its nuclear weapons arsenal. Why expand? France already has the world’s fourth-largest nuclear arsenal, following Russia, the US and China. THE LAST THING WE NEED IS ANOTHER ARMS RACE. https://t.co/khuyfhNe9A
Profound. No plan is unchanged by war, and all predictions are rendered wafer thin. Bowen’s priceless insight.. https://t.co/h4FDPyZ6Y4
The cost of leaching copper oxide ore in the Central African Copperbelt is about to get even more expensive. In the past few days a number of Middle Eastern Oil refineries have been attacked / closed. In addition, exports through...
Friday, the Trump administration began stalling IEEPA tariff refunds in court. In a new @CatoInstitute blog post, we review US regs on customs duty refunds & find that IEEPA delays will cost taxpayers ~$700M/month (~$23M/day) in additional interest payments owed...
Strait of Hormuz Enters Active Crisis: Five Ships Hit, Traffic Collapses, Tanker Markets Brace for Historic Shock https://t.co/QozOvFyHte
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn and soybean export inspections topped all estimates. 65% of the inspected bean volume was to China. https://t.co/pdWgCErVIi
2% inflation won't lead to 3% mortgage rates with the Fed at neutral policy. https://t.co/TpEKz1u8Cu
Obviously the market doesn't really care about the strikes in Iran. The stock indices are barely down, silver is selling off big and crude oil is spiking, but nothing significant, it's nowhere near last June's high from the previous strike...
Just last week the German government gutted the heating law which was supposed to drive a transition away from gas. The timing could not have been worse: Gas prices are up 50% today & this crisis could worsen significantly. This will...
"US manufacturing expanded in February but input prices soared at the fastest pace since 2022, stoking fears of an inflation resurgence even before this weekend’s attacks on Iran." https://t.co/eB5YwfWkhb https://t.co/qeDvw5frvv
#oil & #fertilizer prices both spike following the US-Israel joint strike on Iran with the Strait of Hormuz essentially shut down. #oatt #oott https://t.co/wrY5JcnYwb
Americans Are Leaving the US in Record Numbers Is America becoming a land of emigrants? @JoeWSJ & @drewhinshaw WSJ story looks into this new era. Cameo by Toronto's East End & the unique Riverdale Park view of the city I get to...
Good to see on a day where there are worries about high oil prices and inflation, other key inputs like housing and food may be cooling
Trump. Uncertainty. Disruption. No equilibrium. What would that mean to trade, supply chains, and logistics?
Russian rail freight. Drops. Sign of economy. Exports. Russian Railway. Large employer. What comes next? For economy. For Ukraine war.
War & Mortgage Rates: We're All Along For The Ride Since I am old & have been around for many Geopolitical Events I have learned 2 things: - No one knows exactly how things will turn out - The initial reaction of Financial...
Traders trim BOE bets, see less than 50% chance of a cut in March https://t.co/qbysIjoLyJ via @highisland https://t.co/TOAzMgmV6e
CPI and PPI translations into PCE suggest core prices in January rose around 0.43%, give or take. That would be the highest month-over-month reading since February (which was +0.448%) and annualizes to 5.3%. It corresponds to a 3.1% y/y rate, the highest...
Italy’s deficit breached the EU’s 3% ceiling in 2025 after all https://t.co/khPIWxEtbb via @donatopmancini https://t.co/QURIoNIGBe
For the last 250 years, English has been the language of global trade. Flexport Translations changes that, allowing importers and exporters to communicate in their own language with live translations (powered by @grok) so they can understand each other. We've...
The Fed has been quiet but THIS ECB comment shows you how central bankers are thinking about the rise in oil/gas prices Minutes after European natural gas surged 50%, an ECB Governor said they’re ready to “move quickly” on rates. Energy spike...
Suez Canal transits. By vessel types. Will the next one show the impact of the US-Iran war?
Markets are in risk off mode but NOT full panic YET 📉 $SPX $ES $NQ down 🛢️ $CL surging 🥇 $GC up YET 💵 $DXY strong 📈 $VIX rising Ras Tanura attacked. Oil supply at risk. Iran escalating. If oil keeps climbing, inflation comes back fast. If...
You have to understand that the high finance industry is the most AI-proof (minus back office) because the edge has never been about efficiency It’s regulatory arbitrage, liquidity monopolies, and bilateral custodial trusts backed by war Its only real vulnerability is socialism
UK & European gas price benchmarks have both hit 12-month highs, jumping ~50% today after Qatar paused production in the face of Iranian attacks But it's worth putting this in perspective – we're a long way off the insane spikes we saw...
Start of 2025: ‘Why should I own anything outside of the US?’ 14 months later: South Korea +204%, Peru +143%, South Africa +108% … S&P 500 +18%. The future is unknown. That’s why you diversify. https://t.co/2Lpruh2h0i
