Prediction Markets Now Track Hormuz Traffic, Not Ceasefire
The prediction markets have shifted from assessing when the US-Iran will reach their ceasefire to 'When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal': https://t.co/86UZblCs7z
US Threatens 50% Tariffs on Iran‑weapon Suppliers
Getting back into the high and abrupt tariff implementation game. Threatening a 50% tariff (on goods sold to the US) on any country that supplies military weapons to Iran. That seems like it can get closer to a Section 232 approval...
Dollar Set to Tumble, Weakness Through 2026
The Dollar is tumbling as I forecast in my posts predicting a ceasefire. USD will now unwind all its rise from the past month, which was entirely due to short-term safe haven flows that'll now reverse. We're back to Dollar...
Ceasefire Won’t Instantly Heal Supply Chain Disruptions
🧵 The US-Iran ceasefire is being called a "big day for world peace" — but the supply chain damage is already done. Here's what's broken, what it costs you, and how long it takes to fix. A thread on the...
Long Covid Will Drain OECD Economies $135 Billion Annually
Long Covid predicted to cost OECD economies $135 billion a year https://t.co/4KeKqtPpWP via @ashleighfurlong https://t.co/LDMSBeZh3Y
Iran's New Strait of Hormuz Leverage Sparks Bypass Investments
Hormuz went from free passage to controlled chokepoint overnight, writes @JavierBlas That gives Iran real leverage now—but it also guarantees massive investment to bypass it. https://t.co/3R0l6Irxud #Energy #Geopolitics #Oil
Oil Near Support Level; Buyers May Return Amid Ongoing Conflict
Oil is coming into a level of interest that has been support since the conflict began. $CL_F $USO It would not surprise me to see it find buyers in this area again as the conflict has not been solved just...
Iran Tries to Impose Toll on Hormuz Shipping
🚨Iran demands fees for ships passing Hormuz during ceasefire🚨 This 'agreement' will confirm Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz 1️⃣Iran has ZERO authority to monitor what sails into or out of the Persian Gulf 2️⃣The requirement to sail through Iranian waters...
Iran's Decentralized Structure Thwarts Decapitation Tactics
My take on Iran’s governmental organization with @CoffeeandaMike: “The way Iran is organized is very decentralized. With this kind of organizational structure, decapitation is bound to fail –– and it did fail in Iran.” https://t.co/nsee7XMejw
China Boosts Gold Reserves, Heralding Deglobalization Shift
Nothing to see here. China adds to its gold reserves. The deglobalization toothpaste is already out of the tube — and the rush into neutral assets is only just beginning. https://t.co/oXGnVgwKfX https://t.co/VQE5YC3lrf
Emerging Markets Test 2007 Peak, Bullish Momentum Holds
Most important chart in the world? Emerging markets broke out and tested their peak from 2007. So far, this important area is holding. Again, bullish action for the bull market we are in right now. https://t.co/cKNgzs56LA
Fed Shifts Focus: From Reserve Supply to Demand Liquidity
The Fed’s Overton window appears to be changing. Recent speeches suggest a shift in thinking from supply-driven ample reserves to demand-driven liquidity. Details in my latest newsletter: https://t.co/pPOkB73y6o @vtg2 @NickTimiraos @Isabel_Schnabel @conksresearch https://t.co/RyKoxuTxMA
Trump Threatens 50% Tariffs on Iran Arms Suppliers
WASHINGTON, April 8 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said any country supplying Iran with military weapons will face immediate 50% tariffs with no exemptions, announcing the duty in a social media post one day after agreeing to...
USTR Greer Backs US‑China Trade Board, Rejects Investment Forum
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer promoted the creation of a US-China board of trade, while downplaying the possibility of a group focused on bilateral investment https://t.co/nnhzZxCmN4
Brazilian Real Surges Toward 2022 Fair Value
The Brazilian Real today is strengthening sharply against the Dollar. $/BRL has fallen below where it was on Feb. 27, i.e. before the war with Iran began. The Real will now start a big strengthening cycle. Back to $/BRL fair...
Iran, US Mull Hormuz Toll; Oman Warns Legal Fallout
Iran and the US are considering imposing tolls on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, challenging the UN Law of the Sea's free passage principle. Oman opposes the tolls, raising legal and economic concerns that could impact global maritime norms...
US Pushes Ceasefire End; Spot Oil Set to Drop
There's 2 pushbacks to the ceasefire: (i) it won't hold; (ii) spot oil prices (white) won't fall to futures (orange) soon. No! On (i), the signal is clear: the US wants this over. On (ii), oil tankers from the Gulf...
Markets Rally Despite Escalating Middle East Conflict
So the strait of Hormuz is still shut, Iran is shooting missiles at gulf states and Israel, the U.S. is bombing Iranian energy facilities, and the market is up 1000 points over a ‘cease fire.’ Cool cool.
Hormuz Loses Relevance as Rivals Rush Pipeline Bypasses
COLUMN: No matter what the US and Iran agree over the future of Hormuz, the strait’s status will change. But the waterway will never be as critical as it was six weeks ago: Iran's rivals will rush to build more...
Iran Ceasefire Sends Oil Below $100, Stocks Surge
Iran ceasefire news just crushed oil under $100 and stocks are ripping higher. Risk-on mode is back in a big way. We'll be tracking these momentum moves live with the DOTS indicator in 2 hours to catch the best setups....
Normal Tanker Flows in 2‑3 Months; Products 6‑12 Months
If the ceasefire holds, expect 2–3 months before tanker flows and refinery feedstock delivery approach anything like normal, and 6–12 months before refined product markets (jet fuel, diesel, chemicals) fully normalize.
Pakistan‑brokered Ceasefire Fuels S&P Gap‑up Rally
Big news Tuesday night as Pakistan helped broker a two-week ceasefire, and Europe/Asia are broadly higher. $SPX futures +165 have us gapping into 6810–6840 major resistance, so we’ll see how much of the gap holds. Trim and trail into it,...
Ceasefire Boosts Risk Appetite, Markets Rally, Oil Plummets
Ceasefire Lifts Animal Spirits: Risk appetites have been excited by the two-week cease fire in the Middle East. Stocks and bonds have rallied strongly. The precious metals are higher. May WTI is off more than 15%. June Brent is about...
2026 Energy Shock Peaks Far Below Past Records
The scorecard of the (so far) 2026 energy shock: (Peak price set during US-Iran war Feb 28-Apr 7 vs all-time high; in nominal terms) ⛽️ Brent oil: ~19% below 2008 peak 🔥 TTF nat gas: ~79% below 2022 peak 🔌 German power: ~89% below...
US Blocks Ford's Bid for Aluminum Tariff Relief
"US rejects aluminum tariff relief request from Ford" https://t.co/jFypu1NlqH "While Novelis has been making up for lost production with aluminium from its plants in South Korea and Europe, the imported metal is subject to a 50% duty" https://t.co/KYjObj1b2R
Trump's Iran Deal Derails, Obama’s Succeeded
Obama Iran Deal: open Hormuz capped enrichment inspections Trump Iran Deal: Hormuz closed except at Iran's discretion no agreed enrichment limits no agreed inspections This isn't 4D chess It's a train wreck #Iran #Geopolitics #OilMarkets https://t.co/bBvsjN00CZ
Oil Drops, Stocks Surge After US‑Iran Ceasefire
TACO Trade Is Back As Oil Falls, Stocks Rally on US-Iran Ceasefire - Business Insider https://t.co/Vei7jJ8uDy
Iraq's Central Bank Data System Is Chaotic and Inaccessible
Iraq’s Central Bank data system is a MESS. It's almost IMPOSSIBLE to find basic monetary statistics. IRAQ = HIGHLY DYSFUNCTIONAL. https://t.co/eKvrUEI0qZ
US Treasury Faces Deadline on Russian, Iranian Oil Waivers
The US has to answer some questions: Does the US Treasury extend the waiver on Russian oil sales? (the general license expires on Sunday, Apr 11) And more politically charged, does the US Treasury extend the waiver on Iranian oil sales?...
Seizing Iran's Oil Requires Invasion, Not Simple Trump Rhetoric
Taking Iran's Oil is far more complicated and dangerous than Trump has made it out to be. We're talking about a humanitarian crisis and a full-blown ground invasion to actually control Iranian production. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/9M4RIr0wDA #crude #geopolitics https://t.co/X25nCUjeYn
Ceasefire Sparks Rally, Yet Risks Remain Without Details
Ceasefire rallied stocks and bonds. $USD was sent sharply lower and oil dropped sharply. North American traders may be reluctant to extend the risk-on rally without more details. It was seem counter-intuiti but the dramatic moves pose...
Global Debt Soars Past $348T, Exceeds Triple GDP
Global debt now stands at $348 TRILLION. That’s more than 3 TIMES GLOBAL GDP. G7 Debt in G7 countries has surged from ~20% of GDP post WW2 to OVER 100% of GDP today. Global economies have never faced a shock with this...
Bond Yields Drop, Trend Signals Remain Bullish
UK and European Bond Yields straight down alongside Oil, but their TREND Signals are still up
China Upskills, Vietnam Low‑Costs, Mexico Nearshoring Falters
Global trade is rewiring. China is moving into HIGH-VALUE, ADVANCED manufacturing. Vietnam is rising as a LOW-COST HUB. Meanwhile, Mexico’s nearshoring hype has FAILED to deliver. https://t.co/moYJrnHSfE
German 10y Yields Drop 15bps on Iran Ceasefire
German 10y (nominal) yields plunge 15bps (w/10y inflation expectations down 10bps) on Iran ceasefire. https://t.co/TN4TRdNdX1
German Factory Orders Flat, Recovery Still Elusive
Good Morning from Germany, where industry was showing little sign of recovery even before the war. Factory orders rose just 0.9% in Feb MoM, missing expectations. Excl volatile large orders, demand was up a stronger 3.5%. Still, a downward revision...
Iranian Regime Recognizes Its Power Over Global Economy
Now imagine how clearly the Iranian Islamist regime has realized just how firmly and with impunity it can hold the entire global economy by the throat and force its own terms.
Asia Pivots to Russian Oil Amid Middle East Turmoil
Asia’s energy reality is shifting FAST. As the Middle East’s supply of oil is disrupted by the US-Israeli war on Iran, countries are turning to Russian oil. RUSSIA = BIG WINNER. https://t.co/akGGPsbivA
China's LNG Demand Stalls, Shifts to Domestic and Pipeline Sources
Don't expect China's LNG demand to bounce back from the Middle East turmoil 🇨🇳🚢 China gets a quarter of its LNG from the world's biggest export plant in Qatar.. which remains offline. To makeup for the shortfall, China is expected to...
Turkey's Inflation Eases, but Loose Policy Fuels Surge
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Turkey's CPI inflation slowed to 30.87%/yr in March, down from 31.53%/yr in February. With its money supply, M3, still growing at 39.9%/yr, Turkey’s #1 problem REMAINS Inflation. Monetary policy is still too loose. https://t.co/2EpdZjFZ8x
Energy Prices Plunge Despite Uncertain Hormuz Reopening
Brent crude oil: -15% TTF nat gas: -18% German power: -5% (and below pre-war) Asian coal: -1% (And yes, the Strait of Hormuz has yet to actually reopen, and we don’t know for sure what the ceasefire means in practical terms for SoH energy...
US Leverages Oil Dominance for Global Influence
So this is how 5D chess is played: US produces more oil than it consumes US just got control of world largest reserve (Venezuela) US agrees to Iran oil toll charge to Europe, Asia, Australia etc in exchange for a Ceasefire 😉😉😉 https://t.co/CjILj9Ul2a
Pakistan Seeks China, Saudi Aid to Repay UAE Debt
Pakistan owes $3.5 billion to the UAE, due this month. To cover it, they are going hat in hand to China and Saudi Arabia, again. PAK = THIRD WORLD. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/e4naldX7Ad
European Gas Prices Drop 20% After US‑Iran Ceasefire
EUROPEAN GAS PRICES FALL AS MUCH AS 20% ON US-IRAN CEASEFIRE 🚨🚨 About 20% of global LNG traversed Hormuz before the war. But not a single shipment has been exported from the region in over a month https://t.co/zFjTxnnhra
Inflation Surge, Market Risk Unmoved Without Economic Shock
We know we face months of physical disruption to energy and food markets. Inflation will keep getting worse. The question is whether risk assets will care, if the underlying conflict has been resolved. I suspect not...unless the economy deteriorates in...
New Hormuz Showdown Mirrors Nasser’s Suez Humiliation
1956: Abdel Nasser Suez victory & UK-France humiliation. 2026: Iran & (China) Hormuz victory & Dollar system humiliation. To be reviewed in 2 weeks.
Romania's Central Bank Pushes Euro Adoption Despite Austerity
Romania’s central bank governor joined calls for the Black Sea nation to revive a goal of adopting the euro as the country seeks to get through a painful period of austerity https://t.co/SjqJU4C4eB https://t.co/wJj4vWehdb
RBI Holds Rates, Balances Inflation Control with Growth Outlook
The RBI is balancing inflation control with growth support, keeping rates unchanged amid global uncertainties, while projecting solid GDP growth but slightly softer momentum next year.
Pakistan's Fuel Crisis Blamed on US, Israel Influence
When compared to India, Pakistan has only realized modest economic growth, at best. Pakistanis are facing record fuel shortages and fuel price increases. PAK’S FUEL CRISIS CAN BE LAID AT THE DOORSTEPS OF THE US AND ISRAEL. https://t.co/FHxBNEiD4O
High‑frequency Gauge Predicts Turkey's CPI Decline
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Some question Turkey's official CPI inflation drop from 31.58%/yr in Feb. to 30.87%/yr in Mar. I don’t. My high-frequency inflation measure is 20.9%/yr. That's below the official measure. My measure always leads the official measure, so the fall was expected....