Ceasefire Optimism Fades; Markets Wobble Amid Israel
Ceasefires often have a troubled start and this one is no different. It is complicated by Israel's action in Lebanon. Yesterday's exuberance was exaggerated and has been pared a little. Oil firmer, equities lower, yields higher. $USD in narrow ranges. https://t.co/0ALL1bzL4P https://t.co/Y0gISFfJo0
Tariff Rollbacks and $120bn Refunds Ease Fuel Pain
BofA: Pain at the pump but relief at the ports Tariff rollbacks and a potential $120bn in refunds could cushion pain at the pump and provide meaningful economic stimulus. https://t.co/spAE1VFK5N
Energy Security Demands Clean Energy, Not Temporary Relief
Spoke to @trtworld last night on the Hormuz crisis. Relief ≠ resolution. Oil and gas still much above pre-war levels, 172M barrels stranded, and Iran cementing control of the Strait. The clearest lesson: energy security = clean energy. https://t.co/rbUxk8iIdl
Buffett & I Reject Fed’s 2% Inflation Goal
Warren Buffett doesn't believe in the Fed's 2% inflation target. Neither do I. If the goal is "price stability," - why ANY inflation? That 2% compounded is robbing your purchasing power. Here's a thought: What if prices should actually go DOWN? Everyone...
France Maintains 5% Deficit Target for 2026
France to keep 5% 2026 deficit goal for now, budget chief says https://t.co/x2JgmrJesT via @WHorobin https://t.co/oEinKGqCzm
France's Lescure: Iran War's Economic Impact Remains Moderate
France’s Lescure says the economic impact from the Iran war is moderate for now https://t.co/hUDRHnjPtG via @WHorobin https://t.co/fRjzKgdDjb
UAE Oil Chief Calls Hormuz Closure “Control, Not Passage”
UAE senior oil official Sultan Al Jaber denounces the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. “Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled,” “Conditional passage is not passage. It is control by another name,” he says. https://t.co/TFczKBO4kk
India Seeks Faster Qatar LNG Restart Amid Supply Halt
India's oil minister is heading to Qatar to ask the nation to accelerate the restart of LNG exports and for priority delivery 🇮🇳🤝🇶🇦 Qatar is India’s top LNG supplier (providing 45%). But those deliveries have halted since the Iran war started https://t.co/B7JwVxFnF3
Bond Markets Fade as Stagflation Looms with Oil Surge
Global Bond Markets were fading stock markets yesterday They "see" #Quad3 Stagflation at Oil > $75 never mind > $95 https://t.co/LTC41IObnK
German Stocks Slide as Q3 Recession Risk Rises
GERMANY: stocks drop -1.3% on the open as the probability of re-entering a #Quad3 Recession continues to rise https://t.co/NDmWqlhYDz
Ceasefire Holds, Yet Hormuz Shipping Remains Stalled
The good news: attacks have come down markedly (ex Lebanon), and the fragile ceasefire seems to be holding. The bad news: so far, almost no movement of ships in-and-out of the Strait of Hormuz. Several Chinese oil tankers have pre-positioned to...
Major Chinese Banks Cut Pay as Economy Stalls
SCMP: "Several major Chinese banks have clawed back staff bonuses or cut salaries amid a sluggish economic recovery and Beijing’s ongoing scrutiny of the financial sector." https://t.co/7HaKaMzkVD via @scmpnews
China's Q1 GDP Forecast Hits 4.8%, Annual 4.7%
Yicai: "Chief economists surveyed by Yicai predicted China’s gross domestic product to have expanded 4.8 percent in the three months ended March 31 from a year earlier, higher than the 4.5 percent growth in the fourth quarter of last year....
Rising US Gas Prices May Curb Mexico Pipeline Exports
As @OSullivanMeghan and I wrote @ForeignAffairs, with energy being weaponized, countries will seek to curb imports & boost domestic supply. If US gas prices soar, there's a risk pipeline gas to Mexico would be a prime target to restrict exports...
US Forces Allies to Adopt Stricter China Chip Bans
So, after a war in Iran, threats to leave NATO, and zero focus on Asia, what position is Washington in to demand this of Japan or the Netherlands? Washington pushes allies to match tougher China chip curbs under new bill New US...
German Industrial Output Drops 0.3% in February
Good Morning from Germany, where industrial production unexpectedly declined in Feb, even before the Iran war started, casting doubt on hopes for a rapid recovery. Output fell 0.3% MoM, dragged down mainly by construction and consumer goods. https://t.co/NXOwFKBgQ8 https://t.co/GcbQrapdzf
Russia Offers Sanctioned LNG to South Asia at 40% Discount
Russia is offering to sell US-sanctioned LNG to South Asian buyers at a *40% discount* 🇷🇺🚢 Moscow is seeking to leverage the global natural gas crunch to lure energy-hungry countries like Bangladesh and India https://t.co/SsirotyuhI
Pre‑crisis US Deficits and Debt Issuance Stayed Below 2% GDP
Before the global financial crisis, in 06 and 07, the US fiscal deficit was under 2 percent of GDP and note issuance was under 1 pp of GDP in 07. That was also the time of peak...
China's Central Bank Adds Record Gold in March
The People's Bank of China added another 5 tons of gold to its war chest in March. This is the largest monthly increase in over a year. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/D4y9h6K1mK
We’re Entering a Strauss‑Howe Crisis Reshaping Finance
Thoughts? The Strauss-Howe generation theory explains how we're entering a crisis phase similar to the Great Depression and Civil War with three defining factors of this stage—economic pressure, social division, and financial instability—and show how current global conditions align with...
Ceasefire Narrative Masks Ongoing Conflict, Markets Misread
This isn’t a ceasefire—it’s a narrative overlay on an ongoing conflict, writes @Rabobank 's Molly Schwartz Markets bought the headline—but the war never stopped. #OilMarkets #Geopolitics #IranWar https://t.co/y0FU39ejju
Iran's Dark Fleet Alone Keeps Hormuz Shipping Open
Not ONE ship will pass thru Hormuz except the Iran dark fleet, writes @BurggrabenH Analysts do the math but it's irrelevant if ships won't sail. Hormuz is frozen That's the empirical reality. All the rest is wishful thinking. #OilMarkets #Energy #Geopolitics https://t.co/XIfp4dbmSc
Markets Rally Amid Geopolitical Tension, but Reality Looms
Ships won’t sail, missiles still fly, and terms are unclear But markets rally anyway. Much of that probably short covering and margin calls. Brace for reality sooner than later #OilMarkets #Iran #Geopolitics https://t.co/m3ZdBieyHh
UAE Demands Iran Alter Winning War Behavior
UAE says: a ceasefire isn’t words—it’s behavior. Back to UAE: Why should Iran change a behavior that's been a massive win? #OilMarkets #UAE #Iran #Geopolitics
Ceasefire Uncertain, Hormuz Still Blocked, Oil Market Stressed
Spoke with @PnPCBC earlier today about the Iran War "ceasefire", how the rough first day still had plenty of fire on both sides, how flow through Hormuz has yet to actually resume, and what it all means for the supply-starved...
US Markets Surge as India Volatility Plummets
Global Market Update: Gift Nifty -189.50 (-0.79%) 23,909.50 Dow Jones +1,325.46 (+2.85%) 47,909.92 Nasdaq +617.15 (+2.80%) 22,635.00 India Vix -5.1600 (-20.89%) 19.5350 S&P 500 +166.11 (+2.51%) 6,782.96
Economic Trends Echo Past Cycles, Not Exact Repeats
Took my inspiration from Jackson Browne’s 1977 hit Running on Empty. History doesn’t repeat, but often rhymes. https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2026/april-2026-economic-compass.html
Obama Didn't Give Iran $1.7 B; It Was Frozen Assets
Obama did not give Iran $1.7 billion. It was their money that was frozen in US banks.
Secure Hormuz Passage, Markets Pay Billions for Stability
Pay the toll — move the oil. If you guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, markets will pay. Certainty lowers risk. Risk moves prices. And when 21% of the world’s oil is on the line, stability is worth billions https://t.co/m4JhLddeJq
Irresponsible Policies Heighten Economy's Shock Vulnerability
According to the FT, the Iran-driven oil shock is exposing a new reality: Irresponsible monetary and fiscal policies have left many economies vulnerable to external shocks. https://t.co/cq9fxS0atg
Allies Depend on U.S. Power, Frustrated by Trump's Erraticism
JUST IN: US allies in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East depend on America's economic and military power but are frustrated by President Trump's erratic actions causing uncertainty and hardship.
Asian Markets Set to Open Higher on Fragile Iran‑US Ceasefire
JUST IN: Asian markets are poised to rise at the open due to the fragile Iran-US ceasefire deal.
China’s Coal Power Fuels Energy Resilience Amid Crises
The war with Iran and the Hormuz closure have kicked up a lot of debate about Chinese energy futures. And Venezuela, from which China also bought oil, adds fuel to one piece of that debate. But my #CarnegieAsia teammate @damienics,...
Uncertainty Persists as US Avoids Renewed Conflict
Even Iran’s own officials can’t agree on what’s in the deal. My take is that the US does not go back to fighting because of depletion of munitions & political will That suggests no return to stability. Uncertainty becomes the new normal. #Iran #Geopolitics...
Traders Bet $950M Oil Drop Ahead of Trump Ceasefire
JUST IN: Traders placed $950,000,000 in bets on oil prices falling just hours before President Trump announced ceasefire with Iran
Iran's Secret Plan Replacement Reveals More than Official Spin
Iran’s “unacceptable” plan was scrapped Then replaced with one we’re not allowed to see. If it were a win, they’d show it. The silence says more than the spin. #Iran #Geopolitics #OilMarkets
Ceasefire Cements Iran’s Dominance Over Hormuz Oil Flow
The ceasefire hasn’t restored Hormuz—it’s formalized Iran’s control. Flows are regulated as a fraction of normal The world's energy supply continues to bleed out. Iran is the strongest country in the world. We're winning like never before. https://t.co/4DY0HDko7L #OilMarkets #Iran #Geopolitics
Ceasefire Fails as Hormuz Shipping Hits Weekly Low
A ceasefire, in which attacks continue on both sides To reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is now more closed than yesterday with the fewest daily ship crossings in more than a week https://t.co/9NH0BmZ5Qv
Ceasefire Fragility in Gulf Threatens Rising Energy Prices
Great to join @WmBrangham and @NewsHour to talk about the tenuous ceasefire in the Gulf and what it may mean for high energy prices.
US Chip Curbs Threaten Supply Chain, Timeline Unrealistic
Proposed US chip curbs on China risk deeper supply chain disruption ...whether the proposed 150-day timeline was sufficient to achieve meaningful policy coordination remained uncertain.... Clearly not feasible. It has been nearly 4 years already... https://t.co/RLwyFRVVUe
Tariffs Keep Surpassing Even the Most Ridiculous Expectations
Every time I think I've seen the most ridiculous tariff thing, they totally top themselves. It's impressive, really. https://t.co/wU9nRMenyP
Dow Spikes on Fragile Ceasefire, Not Lasting Peace
📊 April 8 Market Review: The Dow just surged 1,300 points — its best day since April 2025. A fragile US-Iran ceasefire crashed oil 15% and sent stocks flying. But Iran already accused the US of violating the deal. This...
US Mulls Lifting Venezuela Central Bank Sanctions, Boosting Economy
SCOOP: The US is considering lifting sanctions on #Venezuela’s central bank to facilitate the flow of billions of dollars into the country’s battered economy, sources familiar with the matter tell Andreina Itriago, @zerpius and me. https://t.co/DlIY8v24CH
Tariffs Burden Colorado Businesses, Stalling Growth and Hiring
One year after sweeping tariffs were introduced, the impact has only gotten worse. I met with small business owners, manufacturers, and industry leaders to hear directly how rising costs and uncertainty are increasing prices and affecting their ability to grow...
Aluminum Producers Raise US Surcharge Amid War‑
World's dumbest tariff strikes again: "Top Aluminum Makers Hike US Surcharge as War Disrupts Supply" https://t.co/RhlIuA1Ll5 https://t.co/Xc1FLheuKV
Crude Prices Now Double Speed of 2022 Surge
In the buildup to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it took 91 days for the price of crude to rise from 66 to 112. This year, it took but 42 days for the price of crude to cover the same ground. https://t.co/052pDnWj0v
Fed Ignoring Small Businesses Amid Crushing Interest Rates
"Small businesses are choking on high interest rates. Job insecurity that comes out of of the New York fed, just down the street where – from where we are right now, the Fed is not listening to small businesses, and...
Fed Misses 2% Target 60 Months, Global Inflation Persists
According to the FT, the FED has MISSED its 2% inflation target for 60 STRAIGHT MONTHS. Across the world, 3 out of 4 developed economies and 1 in 2 emerging economies are missing their targets as well. THE GLOBAL INFLATION GENIE REMAINS...
NZ 2-Year Yield Stays Steady Amid RBNZ Hawkish Shift
It is remarkable that the NZ 2-year yield saw little adjustment with the RBNZ's hawkish shift. The NZ-US 2-year spread was essentially unchanged despite the $NZUSD rally. Remarkable
XRP Poised as Bridge Linking SDR Currencies
SDR: Bretton Woods 1944 basket currency, GDP-weighted. IMF lender of last resort. 2014 IMF paper introduced exchange rate peg abbreviation. Ripples rebranded XRP same timeframe. XRP likely bridge between SDR currencies, not replacement.