Hormuz Shipping Delays Threaten Early Planting Season
Shipping through Hormuz is backed up and the cease fire and reopening already look at risk. @mike_castle2 , what is the best case scenario (ceasefire holds and we restore shipping) for crops given we are essentially at the start of the major crop planting season? https://t.co/g1Isq0vGWD
Bonds Stay Steady While Markets Surge
“I think the most interesting thing about today is that bonds haven’t reacted as strongly as the rest of the market,” said Eric Wallerstein, chief macro strategist at Clocktower Group @MarketWatch https://t.co/Eyc4GpGRzX
Netanyahu Denies Lebanon in US‑Israeli Ceasefire, Contradicts Pakistan
Netanyahu announced that the new US-Israeli ceasefire “does not include Lebanon.” This contradicts PM Sharif of Pakistan, who brokered the ceasefire, and said that the ceasefire was agreed to "everywhere including Lebanon". ISRAEL = THE SPOILER. https://t.co/mfcKZPYJqD
Ceasefire Temporary; Israel Wild Card, Iran Controls Hormuz
Joined @CNNThisMorning earlier today to try to make sense of the ceasefire. Several hour later, my take remains true: the pause in fighting is likely only temporary, Israel remains the wild card, and Iran still holds the cards on the...
GCC U.S. Investments Threatened by Iran War Cash Cuts
Are foreign investments by GCC countries into the U.S. market compromised as cash flows continue to be cut off by the war in Iran? Watch my entire interview with @JayMartinBC here ➡️ https://t.co/0whdPPs6jQ #iranwar #economy #geopolitics https://t.co/pFuTmXYj79
Liquidity and ISM Metrics All Trending up Globally
Total Global Liquidity is rising Global M2 is rising US Total Liquidity is rising US M2 is rising China Total Liquidity is rising ISM is rising Try not to over think it.
Fed Flags Rising Inflation, Labor Risks Amid Iran Conflict
Fed officials see higher risk in inflation and labor market, while the Iran war clouds outlook: FOMC minutes @seekingalpha https://t.co/38nIdN2Imk
Ceasefire Crumbles, Oil Profits Surge, War Resumes
Here’s how this goes: ceasefire collapses in 24-48 hours — as it basically already has — people make billions on oil swinging 16% in a day, the U.S. re-arms and this whole situation is back to square one in less...
Fed Chair Choice Won’t Drive Mortgage Rates, Here’s Why
I've heard from Redfin agents that some homebuyers are waiting for President Trump's pick for Fed Chair to lower mortgage rates before they buy. In this video I explain where that logic goes wrong and what actually moves mortgage rates: https://t.co/x7Qk1wyckH
Trump's Stance on Iran's 10‑Point Proposal Remains Unclear
So, which is true? Trump agreed to make Iran’s 10-point proposal the basis for negotiations Or He threw the Iran’s 10-point proposal in the bin Or The 10-point proposal he got was not what Iran made public?
Tariffs and Fuel Costs Cloud US Container Import Outlook
Fuel Costs, Tariffs Cloud Outlook for U.S. Container Imports. Trump tariffs and Iran war. When and how may the war affect imports? https://t.co/OYGyucP66q
Iran Accuses US of Ceasefire Breach, Labels Negotiation Terms Unreasonable
Iran saying the US in breach of the ceasefire clauses. Says conditions for bilateral negotiations is unreasonable. I think it interesting that he went out of his way to call it a the President's 'Truth' (rather than social post)...
US Job Loss Signals End of American Hegemony
Economic signals flashing red: US shed 92k jobs in February (vs +60k forecast), unemployment to 4.4%. Potential NATO withdrawal, Iran no-deal exit imminent. Root issue: Post-WWII dollar supplanting pound inflated currency, favoring finance over manufacturing - 80 years running. Current policies...
Fed Minutes Reveal Split on Iran Risk, Lean Toward Hikes
March's Fed minutes show broad support for a patient approach to forthcoming rate decisions, but splintering views over what the biggest risk from the Iran war will be. A vast majority of policymakers now expect slower progress toward the 2%...
Tech Firms Skip Middle East, Boost Latin America Data Hubs
Outstanding day for LatAm today. War ending or not… one thing seems highly likely: None of the major tech companies will go out of their way to allocate capital toward building new data centers or large-scale facilities in the Middle East anytime...
U.S. Defense Budget Outspends Next Nine Nations Combined
Whatever happened to America First? The 2025 US military budget is already $962 billion, the most in the world and more than the combined total of the next nine nations (China, $246 billion; Russia, $150 billion; Germany, $109 billion). From a newsletter...
Ceasefire Headlines Barely Dent Market; Futures Stay Strong
A day filled with headlines about the ceasefire being violated, not holding, etc. has had almost no impact on stock prices. Futures still way up on the day. https://t.co/6JyGWIaWcl
Fed Sees Slower Inflation Progress Amid Tariffs, Oil, Fragile Expectations
The Fed minutes showed "the vast majority" of officials thought inflation progress could be slower than expected, driven by three overlapping concerns: tariff effects on goods prices that may take longer to fade, oil prices bleeding into core inflation, and...
Yield Curve Flip Signals Growth Risks Amid Fed Tightness
10Y–2Y yield curve keeps grinding lower, but the type of flattening has shifted from “bear” (short rates up) to “bull” (long rates getting bid). That suggests the bond market is growing more cautious about US economic growth, while the Fed...
US Vice President Vance Leads First US‑Iran Talks in Islamabad
The first round of US-Iran talks will take place Saturday in Islamabad, with the US negotiating team led by Vice President JD Vance, the White House said.
Iran Limits Hormuz Traffic to 12 Ships Daily
Iran. Controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Permit a dozen ships a day. Clearing the backlog of ships stuck in the Strait and waiting to enter. How long to rest “normal”?
Oil Traders Likely Got Iran Strike Tip Before Trump
Did markets know Trump's Iran strike halt 15 minutes before he posted? $580 million in oil bets placed right then. Traders potentially gamed a war risking global famine for profit. Inside trading on a planetary scale? Check out my full breakdown. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrBNfVn8r60 TrumpIran...
Escalating Middle East Conflict Ignored by Markets
Ok let's review, Strait is back to closed, Israel is bombing Tehran and Lebanon, Iran is drone bombing Kuwait/Saudi pipelines/UAE, they are threatening to cancel Friday's meeting and the markets couldn't care less.
Tariff‑free Tech Aims to Revive Manufacturing, at Google’s Cost
The Trump trade world is focused on making sure that software and e-commerce happens tariff-free. How does this boost of big tech help re-industrialize? Remember, if we are asking for stuff for Google, we are giving up stuff for people...
Macro Data Deluge Competes with US‑Iran Tensions
Next week's macro docket is nuts. The IMF will update its WEO; China Q1 GDP; Bank earnings start and the Fed Beige Book will inform the Apr 29 FOMC decision (among other many other listings). Are we going to be...
PMI Expansion Triggers Market Risk‑On Spree Since 2003
This has a 100% record. Every single time in the last 23 years that PMI has entered expansion, after contraction, it has signalled the start of a heavy risk on period for markets. I've used Russell 2000 here to take us back...
HYG Nears 200‑Day Average, Fed Minutes Could Spark Late‑Cycle Concerns
$HYG Daily. High Yield Corporate Bond ETF gapping up to 200-day moving average. With Fed Minutes today, then major macro rest of week, am watching to see late-cycle concerns reappear https://t.co/s1J9PRXCS5
Dollar Slump Lifts US Bean Prices, Drops Brazil’s
The U.S. dollar on Wednesday fell to a two-year low against the Brazilian real, down about 19% from its Dec. 2024 peak. Applying this to CBOT soybean prices: 🇺🇸Beans (USD) are up 11% from this same week last year 🇧🇷Beans (BRL) are...
Futures Market Crumbling as Physical Oil Scarcity Persists
The Strait of Hormuz May remain shut, the barrels of oil may remain firmly locked in. The ceasefire may not hold. But nobody will dare go long on crude futures. Because there will be yet another false dawn, and they will get...
Key Political & Fed Events Set to Move Markets
Some catalysts over the next hour or so... 1pm ET - WH Press conference re: difference between Iran 10 and American 15 point plans 1:15pm - Netanyahu press conference re ceasefire 2pm - March FOMC minutes
Fertilizer Price Surge Hits Government Budgets, Not Food Security
The spike in fertiliser costs is not a food security problem in many nations (and particularly, in developing Asian countries). Instead, it's a fiscal shock problem for the governments subsidizing their consumption.
Rusal Redirects Aluminum From China to Japan Amid Iran Conflict
Exclusive: Rusal plans to reroute aluminum from China to Japan as Iran conflict reshapes trade, sources say https://t.co/Rn0kOg7gVj
Rising Yields, Stable Inflation Expectations Pressure Gold
The market priced as a short-term shock, not structural change: bond yields rose, but long-term inflation expectations did not -> real yields moved rose, a headwind to price of gold.
Oil Slump Pushes Yields Lower, India Growth Forecast Cut
🌍 Global News Update: ⦿ Brazil's 10-year bond yield tumbled toward 13.7% as crude oil prices plunged, improving the inflation outlook. ⦿ US crude inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels to 464.7 million barrels in the week ended April 3. ⦿ US 10-year...
Shipping Stalls in Hormuz Until Iran Halts Attacks
The last plot is through 9:43 AM ET today (April 8th). It is on track to be the highest of the last month. Again, this has to go to zero for shipping to start moving through the Strait. Note that the uptick...
Washington Claims Peace as Iran Keeps Hormuz Closed
The war intrigue has gone beyond anyone’s wildest imagination, I wonder what comes next. Washington will declare it has signed a peace deal exactly on its terms and claim the Strait of Hormuz has been fully reopened, while Iran continues to...
Cease‑fire Trims Fed’s Demand‑risk Tail More than Inflation Upside
A durable cease-fire narrows the tail risks for the Fed on both sides, but it may do so asymmetrically: it cuts off the demand destruction tail that could have forced near-term cuts arguably more than it cuts off the upside...
Misinformation Swirls as Iran Denies Strait of Hormuz Traffic
How long will this last? The misinformation around this conflict is crazy. First ships were passing through strait of Hormuz; now Iran saying they aren’t. 😵🙄
Productivity Boom Hidden by Stagflation Benefits Powerful Bureaucracy
My new framework: We are in a productivity boom inside a government sovereign debt bubble that causes geopolitical & demographic issues- these issues mask themselves as stagflationary. In a productivity boom there are massive winners and losers. Passive management doesn’t work well...
Iran Mulls Ceasefire Exit Amid Growing Violations
US-Iran ceasefire under strain as Pakistan reports violations, Tehran accuses Israel of breaching deal Iran says it's mulling withdrawal from ceasefire, Hormuz closed again
US Heading Toward Debt Crisis Threatens Families
The US is going full speed towards a debt crisis: - Interest rates are high - The dollar is weakening - Bond yields are skyrocketing This is going to be disastrous for families...
Russia’s Oil Revenues Surge to War‑Era High
Russia Oil Export Revenues Hit Highest Since Early Ukraine War as Prices Surge, Despite Ukrainian Port Attacks. Trump lifting sanctions gives Putin revenue for Ukraine war. https://t.co/j3gLWruMFo
Hormuz Still Blocked; Shippers Await Post‑ceasefire Safety
The Strait of Hormuz appeared to remain largely blocked on Wednesday, as shipowners try to understand if they can safely transit the vital waterway following a ceasefire between the US and Iran that was announced overnight https://t.co/zdoetY8L6Y
Market Positioning Shapes Policy, Fuels Relief Rally
Since we now live in a reflexive world where policy is often set based on price signals, you could make the argument that market structure and positioning can drive policy. Market positioning was primed to see a relief rally and...
Steve Keen Warns Looming Global Crash From Debt Deflation
Steve Keen has a track record of predictions and almost all of them point to the same thing - global crash worse than 2008 is coming (2026) - private debt at 170% of GDP will trigger it - deflation will destroy demand, not inflation -...
Trump Threatens Iran Tariffs without Legal Authority
Trump just threatened tariffs over Iran but also he doesn't have the authority to levy such tariffs. So there's that. Just astonishing we have to deal with this bullshit artist.
Iran Ceasefire Sparks Risk‑On Rally, Tech Oversold Gains
Look forward to discussing this risk-on market post the Iran ceasefire news and what this means for the oversold tech sector looking ahead on @CNBCClosingBell at 3:35 pm with @ScottWapnerCNBC @CNBC 🏆🍿📺🎯🐂
Foreign Investors Flee US Treasuries for Low‑Yield Chinese Bonds
Forget US Treasuries, Chinese bonds are the new safe-haven trade Since the start of the war, foreigners have: - Dumped $82B of Treasuries - Piled into panda bonds The math makes sense: - US 10-year yield: 4.4% - China 10-year yield: 1.8% In the midst of the...
Dollar‑EM Indicator Signals Return to 2010‑13 Weakness
It's the Dollar versus EM that's been the key leading indicator for USD direction and that's now tumbling (black). We're in a new regime for the Dollar and are going back to the 2010-2013 period, when Dollar weakness was primarily...
Mearsheimer: Trump Undermines International Law, Allies, U.S. Reputation
UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on how Trump is damaging Uncle Sam's reputation: "Where this war really matters is how the US uses its power. The Trump administration... [is] undermining international law... international institutions and damaging its relations with allies." https://t.co/alLAlZkar7