Israel-Lebanon Talks Boost Treasury Gains, Optimism Rises
Another does of optimism after Israel agreed to direct talks with Lebanon. USTs reversed earlier losses and surged higher with long-end lagging before 30y auction. WIs 4.88
Brazil's Real Yields Match Hypothetical 12% US Rates
Wow I wasn't aware just how positive Brazilian real rates were. This would be like if U.S. interest rates at 12%... https://t.co/M9wTdfi05a
Supply‑driven Market Renders Rate Hikes Ineffective, Boosting Hard Assets
Rates down. Dollar down. Commodities and Latam stocks surging. A reminder: This is a supply-driven market — hiking rates won’t solve the problem. If anything, a higher cost of debt only worsens it by tightening access to capital. And to be fair: The US...
Iran Ceasefire Sends Prediction Markets Into Turmoil
"contract resolved to "yes" following Tuesday evening's announcements, but its outcome has since been changed to "disputed" given continued disruptions to Hormuz Strait shipments and enduring hostilities" Iran Ceasefire Wreaks Havoc on Prediction Markets https://t.co/uv56XlWTW9
France's $15B Gold Pull Signals Global Reserve Shift
My remarks w/ @DailyCaller on the French withdrawing $15B in gold from the US: “The risk of having foreign reserve assets frozen in the US came up when the US & its allies froze Russian central bank assets in Feb. 2022.” I anticipate...
When Debt Outpaces Income, Fiat Currency Weakens
Throughout history, all fiat currencies eventually face the same pressures. When debt grows faster than income and money needs to be created to fill the gap, the value of that money changes. This isn’t a prediction—it’s a pattern that has repeated...
Trump and Netanyahu Cede Hormuz, Making Iran Toll Road
Trump and Netanyahu have handed Iran the strategic high ground –– the control of the Strait of Hormuz. As I told @SeanPmathews: “The Strait of Hormuz was a freeway. Now it’s an Iranian toll road.” https://t.co/dGLBi5V6KE
All Parties Face Multiple Red Lines in Conflict
A lot of red lines for all sides involved... Geopolitical Guy | Substack Source: www.graphicnews.com
10‑Year Yield Above 4.4% Proves Unmanageable
Well that is a problem given that in the last couple weeks, the MOVE Volatility Index and US policymakers’ actions (TACO’d every single time 10y hit 4.4%) empirically showed that the US & world cannot handle >4.4% on the 10y. #YouDownWithYCCYeahYouKnowMe
Iranian Traders Swap Gold for Bonds Amid War
This is a really fantastic overview of what's been going on in Iranian financial markets over the last year. Turns out, since the start of this war, Iranian retail traders have been rotating out of precious metals and into fixed income...
Inflation Data Finally Shows Real Prices, Says MrMBrown
@MrMBrown channeling his inner nerd on ONS inflation data, which should now reflect real prices 😂https://t.co/Wm7iIl1SE8
US Market Depth Keeps Dollar King Despite Global Turmoil
I spoke to @SeanPmathews about KING DOLLAR: "Sanctions, wars, and tariffs make it easier for the dollar's challengers. But the US is the biggest, most liquid capital market in the world, bigger than all the others put together. That’s why king...
Deficit Shrinkage Far Smaller Than
In the real world, the deficit fell by $56 billion last year, less than one-tenth of what Kevin claims, but he did get the direction right this time, unlike his claims about inflation falling
Turkey's Central Bank Loses 128 Tons Gold Amid Lira Pressure
The latest data - out today - show gold holdings by Turkey's central bank falling a further 8 tons in the week to April 3. This brings the total drop to 128 tons since depreciation pressure on the Lira peg...
Brazil's High Inflation Tied to Excessive Money Growth
Brazil's inflation is 3.8%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3% inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.4%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/TFkrFL2exI
February Real Income Turns Negative, Signaling Economic Strain
Important point from Ben -- Americans' income was already **negative** in February once you adjust for inflation. People were having to dip into savings or turn to credit cards to fund their spending, even before gas prices jumped to $4. This is...
IMF Highlights Iran War Impact, Offers No New Action
.@KGeorgieva opening speech @IMFNews spring meetings entirely about impact of Iran war. Notable shift as IMF and @WorldBankGroup have been reticent so far. But unlike previous crises, IMF is not proposing new action, other than standing ready to help.
Weak‑balance‑of‑payments Oil
Oil or petroleum importer with low income and shaky balance of payments? Your bond yields just shot up. This and more in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/0ZEdcZZMFR
Iran's Drone Strikes Drop to Seven After Massive Launch
Iran has so far fired just 7 drones today, all at Bahrain, this after launching a monthly high of 149 missiles and drones yesterday. Will it last? Will it get ships moving? https://t.co/RNn07BEdGM
UK Bond Volatility Undermines Liquidity and Mortgage Availability
Once again, the UK financial markets are dominated by the “high beta” character of government bonds. (Please see Bloomberg data below.) This isn't just about rate volatility in the national benchmark; it’s also about how that volatility undermines market liquidity, complicates...
Mexico's Climate‑scientist President Backs Controversial Shale Gas
Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist by training, makes a policy U-turn, now backing the development of shale gas deposits in her country (which means fracking, even if she avoided using that word — a taboo in Mexico —...
Iran's Hormuz Grip Threatens Gulf Oil Flow
Gulf states denounce Iranian control of Hormuz What are they going to do about it? Helima Croft nails it: "Iran potentially having a vote on nearly every barrel that exits the waterway until Gulf countries can build more alternative access routes" Any...
Venezuela Wastes $330M Buying Bolívars; Adopt Dollar Now
#VNZWatch 🇻🇪: In an attempt to prop up the collapsing bolívar, the government has sold about $330 million to purchase bolívars. This is a futile exercise. THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD REPLACE THE BOLÍVAR WITH THE GREENBACK IMMEDIATELY. https://t.co/J9kJ4mZ9TB
PCE Inflation Stays at 2.8%, Exceeding Fed Target
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index held steady in February at 2.8%/yr. This is ABOVE the FED’s inflation target of 2%/yr and the February forecast of 2.6%/yr. INFLATION = THE GENIE THE FED JUST CAN'T PUT BACK IN THE BOTTLE....
Ex‑BoE Economist
Imagine writing and publishing an article on trade (by ex BoE chief economist) in Britain’s premier financial newspaper that doesn’t refer at all to China. Well here it is
Treasury Bill Rollovers & Debt Swaps Overhyped on FinTwit
Two topics that get 100x more airtime than they deserve on fintwit: 1) Trillions in Tbills constantly maturing and getting bought again by the same balance sheets that hold them now. 2) The Treasury issuing some on-the-run debt to buy back some...
Ceasefire Won’t Halt Rising Oil Prices
The Iran-US conflict is in ceasefire. However, this doesn't mean that prices won't stop going up for oil. @JoshYoung explained this perfectly. Listen to the podcast here: Spotify: https://t.co/dXhhaEqjYx Apple Podcasts: https://t.co/HqM3ZP2DF4
ECB Will Act If Needed to Meet Inflation Target
Sleijpen says the ECB will act if needed to keep inflation at target https://t.co/i7fN2hd9FJ via @patrickreports https://t.co/MYYOhsOcMW
Conflict Outcomes Remain Uncertain, Like Schr
Given "Schroedinger's ceasefire" and "Schroedinger's Hormuz re-opening", thought this was a potentially instructive chart from @johnauthers, via @Bloomberg. #HistoryRhymes https://t.co/86srIVeKMI
Tariff Pause Triggers
On This Day in History, April 9, 2025: Trump dropped a bombshell Truth Social post announcing a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs (dropping them back to 10%), while hiking China’s rate to 125%. Markets went nuts: • Dow surges 2,963 points...
PCE Confirms 3% Inflation Amid Recent Shock Waves
Today's PCE report showed once again this is a 3% inflation 🌎. On Facts vs Feelings this week, we discussed the 5 big inflation shocks the past few years. https://t.co/dbovthdUvY
130 Years of Rising Wages, Shorter
The story of the last 130 years: -Higher real wages. -Fewer hours worked. -Transition from farms to services Progress happens incrementally, so we barely feel it. But the long-term trend is undeniably up. https://t.co/IHCs0Z7xXH
Euro's Debt Charade Leaves Spain, Italy, France Vulnerable
The Euro got hijacked by high-debt countries to foster the illusion they're solvent. But yield caps don't confer fiscal space, which is why - when a shock like Ukraine hits - Spain (ES), Italy (IT) and France (FR) can't help....
Fed's Inflation Woes Predate Iran War, Stalled at 2%
NEW: Long before the Iran war began, the Fed had an inflation problem, as Feb's PCE data confirms today. Progress on reaching the 2% target had essentially stalled out, while a closely-watched metric tracking ex-housing services inflation was stuck well...
Core PCE Climbs, Fed Should Tighten Despite Energy Shock
In February, PCE less food and energy up .4% for the second straight month--12-month change remained 3.0%. Before Mideast energy shock Fed should have a tightening bias https://t.co/CuTWT2XgUi
OECD Calls for UK Tax Overhaul to Spur Growth
OECD urges Reeves to overhaul the UK tax system to boost growth https://t.co/jXhKmLwgu9 via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/EG8VX6kx0A
Markets Resilient Despite War, Inflation, and Midterms
Who is the 🦨at the party? In our latest Facts vs Feelings, @sonusvarghese and I discussed: * The war and inflation * The labor market isn't so bad * Midterm years * And how we are positioning our portfolios https://t.co/SCOb8I9PVL
China Mulls Aid for State Airlines Amid Fuel Surge
1/5 Bloomberg: "China is considering financial relief and other measures for its struggling state-run airlines as the Iran war sends fuel costs soaring, in what could be the industry’s biggest lifeline since the Covid pandemic." https://t.co/bT7WcksHuN
Markets Care About Oil, Not Iran's Political Outcome
Regarding Iran, the market's primary concern is oil prices. Whether we "win", " lose", or fail to meet our objectives has little to no relevance for the market.
FSB Chair Flags Emerging Private Credit Stress Post‑Iran War
Financial Stability Board Chair Andrew Bailey warns stresses may be emerging in private credit after the shock to markets from the Iran war https://t.co/2mdmwBairp via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/R7mFsehmSi
Italy's Record Deficit Highlights ECB's Debt‑Shielding Role
Italy's cash budget deficit in Mar '26 is the biggest ever, wider even than Mar '20 at the height of COVID. At the root of this lies the ECB, which is co-opted by high-debt countries and protects them from markets....
From Kennedy’s Optimism to Trump’s Victim Narrative via Globotics
My new Factful Friday in up on (free) Substack; tomorrow on LI. 👉Kennedy’s confidence turned into Trump’s victimhood when the Globotics shocks (globalisation and robotics) hit the US middle class hard and social policy failed to help them adjust. 👉This week’s...
Policy Uncertainty and Market Risk Diverge Half the Time
Investors feel anxious. Iran. Oil prices. Volatile markets. The news feels relentless. But here's what 30 years of data shows: policy uncertainty and market risk are measured by different instruments, and they diverge almost half the time. ...
US Tariffs Are Leverage Tools, Not Deficit Fixes
1/2 Sam Lowe: "this isn’t really a tariff regime. It’s a perpetual leverage machine with tariffs as the enforcement mechanism." Exactly right. And that's why US tariffs so far have had so little impact on the US trade deficit. https://t.co/GutH5fGJ6s
Middle East Conflict Triggers 70% Butadiene Surge, Threatening Glove Supply
Middle East instability isn’t an energy crisis. It’s a healthcare supply collapse in slow motion. The market is tracking Brent Crude, but the critical failure is butadiene. This core feedstock for disposable gloves spiked 70% since the conflict began. War → Supply...
Lebanon Holds Ceasefire Fate, Tehran Exploits Excuse
Lebanon will make or break the ceasefire. (But also it is a convenient excuse for Tehran)
Cayman Islands Poised to Profit From Iran‑Dubai Conflict
The Cayman Islands is among the offshore financial centres that could benefit from Iran’s attacks on Dubai.
Swap Market Predicts Brief 4% Inflation Spike, Then 3%
Inflation may reach 4% for a fleeting moment this year.. but then back near 3% in rather short order, according to the swap market. If you disagree, go out and trade it. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/mN7udXNlCV
Oil Soars 42% While US Stocks Slip 1%
This is nuts... oil +42% since the war began, and US stocks have plunged all of 1% @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x Nasdaq, small caps UNCH https://t.co/8xxFActnDf
Reopening Hormuz Likely Messy, Iran Controls Every Barrel
RBC Capital Markets' @CroftHelima and co: "[W]e think the mechanics of reopening the Strait will be exceedingly messy, with Iran potentially having a vote on nearly every barrel that exits the waterway until Gulf countries can build more alternative access...