Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Fed governor Chris Waller on Bloomberg TV: January PCE inflation is going to be hot. The energy shock is a new risk. If the labor market is solid, "It does say you can sit there and wait."
Have been saying for a while that commodities have been way under estimating upside potential(ag in particular) what a little wall street money could do to prices. However, if crude causes the equities to crater it can become “risk off”...
NEW: Kazakhstan’s central bank is set to invest up to $350M from its reserves into the crypto sector. The strategy targets crypto-linked equities and funds, not direct purchases of digital assets. The program could start in April or May. https://t.co/RlEGwWKYzs
The euro-area economy expanded less than initially reported at the end of last year https://t.co/flsqVlKh6v via @jrandow https://t.co/OCSdYYfIil
International Energy Agency executive-director Fatih Birol just spoke to journalists in Brussels after meeting with EU leaders. Here his main messages from the presser: https://t.co/uzZVrc46zi
The Straight of Hormuz, which is a key shipping lane for the world's oil, fertilizer and other products, is effectively shut. Charts from @bloomberg: https://t.co/zunbN3eO7G
The US is temporarily easing sanctions on Russian oil sales to India to address supply shortages and reduce the impact of the surge in prices in the wake of US and Israeli attacks on Iran. The decision to ease sanctions...
Korea is a super interesting case (even before the latest events in the Gulf). Surging current account surplus (10% of GDP), surging domestic stock market and a very weak currency are an unusual combination 1/
US critical minerals talks in Caracas signal a push for a formal Venezuelan mining value chain. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/us-critical-minerals-supply-chain-in.html
Swedish central bank urges public to horde cash in case of payments disruption https://t.co/ckNfNUQsve "The Riskbank is currently working on improving the possibility of making offline payments by card to strengthen resilience." https://t.co/yLYmWsDoh0
Low vol begets high vol, to paraphrase Minsky. Systems trained on Powell, and they all have been trained on Powell, will struggle to interpret Warsh… especially as he himself will struggle with the same.
Update on the Fed’s Balance Sheet and its Reserve Management Purchases. Adding T-bills, shedding MBS, Treasury note & bond balances on ice, SRF unused https://t.co/M947SfSoUP https://t.co/c3uHc5VmGA
China lithium prices tumble as weak EV sales, Middle East war cloud demand outlook https://t.co/8TqB23mggy
Why are we surprised by 👇? I wrote this nearly six years ago, in the context of why the US won’t allow India the same freedom of an undervalued currency that it accorded China: https://t.co/sZ45dDSSRv
According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, 78% of Americans say inflation is a very big concern for them personally. AFFORDABILITY = GOING TO GET WORSE = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/z3qgrkZ7V2
"We are in the first phase of a great rotation away from the US FANG+ and related stocks, semiconductor, and AI software companies towards oil & gas, utilities, emerging market, and resource stocks, and Treasury bonds." - Marc Faber
There is a caveat to the Russia oil waiver for India — “loaded on vessels as of March 5”. The Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is issuing Russia-related General License 133, "Authorizing the Delivery and Sale...
This paints a potential scenario for how the dollar index could return to its all time high. Not bc it is great. But bc all other fiat will fail first.
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: After the rupee hit a record low, India’s central bank sold dollars. Then, the Rupee SURGED, with the biggest gain in Asia today. https://t.co/rzGC4rj8Kv
This will help. But crucial to understand: India’s total crude imports are ~5.5 mil b/d. This is a minor offset to 20 mil b/d locked out of the market. Washington appears set on offering a drip-feed of relief to a major oil...
My biggest takeaway right now regarding mortgage rates is to expect heightened volatility. They will likely bounce around a lot more than normal thanks to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The good news is 30-year fixed rates remain near ~3-year...
Container Shipping Rates Rise as Asian Factories Reopen—But Hormuz Crisis Threatens New Shock. Is it time to stop talking about rates? Instead cite the metrics for container lines and for supply chains? Rethink a new reality of increasing disruption? ...
February was another strong month for the Japanese equity market and for Senjin Capital Fund I. The Fund’s unit price increased 6.7% in AU$ terms, despite a ~3% FX drag from the weakening Yen. The Fund has now returned 48% net of...
This chart shows the = home price an American household on a median income can afford. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/1bNlhKyjp5
Guest post by @Petercontibrown on three potential paths for a new Fed-Treasury accord. https://t.co/99ynaEpsMi @NickTimiraos @colbyLsmith @amacker @vtg2 @senoj_erialc https://t.co/xKOGn0fS5W
The Iran War - Day 6: Energy Disruption, Regime Fragmentation, and Ukraine You are watching a full preview of Peter's coverage of the Iran War. Join our Analyst Tier on Patreon to access daily videos and analysis of...
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Breakout Faces Major Test at January High- NFP on Tap https://t.co/ww8j824xfZ $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/7sX9giMwmH
"I know I said last April that 'as the debtor country, America has all the leverage v. China'...& I know we are actively trying to choke out both you AND Russia...but could you buy less oil from Russia & more...
Everyone is trying to explain the mystery of why the job market is weak for college grads, most blaming AI. But that IS NOT THE MYSTERY. The mystery is why is it weak for young workers of ALL EDUCATION LEVELS...
The Middle East conflict is stress testing global energy. Bloomberg sees oil at $108 in a severe escalation. We have seen this before. The difference now is that solar and batteries are more cost competitive. Every fossil fuel spike strengthens the...
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated by 28% over the past year. https://t.co/6WS2fKoH6r
Why Are There No Ships in the Strait of Hormuz | March 5, 2026, Update Video: https://t.co/tcPFyfGeV8 https://t.co/Wgk4B6EEIp
Macro: coal demand bifurcates—metallurgical firm, thermal pressured. Key factors: Warrior Met's Q4 strength; Peabody's diversified mix. Risks: regulation, China slowdown. Trade: Buy Warrior Met on pullback. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
There is a lot to be learned from markets following the Russia-Ukraine invasion, except this conflict is larger and more complex. Russia (140M ppl) invaded Ukraine (40M ppl). This conflict involves more countries, supply chains, resources and critical geography.
Oil prices are surging, but inflation expectations aren't moving. Bond markets still pricing in a world that may no longer exist. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/6C4VK744Ql
Macro: credit litigation; GLAS sues Annington for £1.56bn over 2032–2051 bonds. Key: issuer rejects acceleration. Risk: repayment shock, guarantor strain. Trading insight: avoid Annington bonds. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
While the CIA arms Iranian Kurds in Iraq, Turkey is in the middle of disarmament talks with the PKK. I wonder what Erdoğan thinks about the latest US entanglement with the Kurds? https://t.co/iaq2Xp2XeS
Jim Cramer says the oil market is signaling the Iran war won't spiral, and that's bullish for stocks, per CNBC 🤦🏻♂️
Who knows whether its valid or not, but the oil curve is fading the Iran war so far and seems to think this wraps up pretty quickly. No idea whether that's valid pricing or not but does increase the tension...
I did a rant this morning live in my trading room of what to buy and what to avoid and what to short and my HIGH conviction Iran Risk Is Not Priced In - as I have been writing about...
Macro: political risk rises after $220M DHS ad probe. Key: high-profile Noem campaign, bipartisan scrutiny. Risks: reputational, budget cuts. Trade insight: trim exposure to govt comms suppliers. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Why are Europe’s rigid labor markets so bad? They turn a flow into a stock, which generates not great reactions to demand shocks. https://t.co/TqgDgtU9nj
On The Climate Brink, my latest post is on what the war in Iran tells us about the hidden costs of fossil fuels https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-war-in-iran-shows-us-another
loonie strengthens amid middle east chaos. upside of being a quasi petrocurrency i guess https://t.co/kfnMOPwxal
ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION: What happens when you take the MSCI EM Index and start kicking out autocratic countries with low freedom scores (eg China, Russia) and use that excess budget to load up on freer countries? You crush the benchmark....
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 32%, deficit/GDP was 1%, & NIIP/GDP was +10%. There was no level of inflation & rates that could push the US into a debt spiral. Today those #’s are 122%, 6%, & -90%, & 4.8% 10y...
The HFT algos/CTA trend followers don't discount geopolitics very well. If @hkuppy is right, he makes a real case why active management is of ultimate importance when there is a real global change. The VIX is not mean reverting this time,...
Bonds have not gotten the safe haven bid since Iran action commenced last Friday evening. $TLT - Rates still moving higher.
Further to what we said about the impact that the closing of the Strait of Hormuz has on the sulphur market… and therefore African copper production… Craig Tindale maps out that this is only one small piece of a giant...
Today’s podcast discusses a theory of mine on why #mortgagerates are near 6%, with hotter inflation data and the war with Iran driving up oil prices. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #economics #realestate #housing #chartdaddy
