Weak Chinese Economy Fuels Outward Credit Hunt
There are a lot of stories about Chinese assets acting like havens, especially China IG credit outperforming. How do you square that with a very weak economy? Well, the reason China IG credit is outperforming is because of the weak economy. Demand for loans is low and so banks are flush with liquidity. What to do with all that cash? Well, China is still buying USD assets even if it's selling UST. It's buying USD corporate debt etc. China credit is that example. It's not really a sign of strength but domestic demand weakness and yields rather low onshore. The big picture here is that China is investing outward given margin compression onshore. Whether it's low yielding govies or low corporate profits, all signs says you gotta go outward to hunt for yield and growth.
GCC Rejects Strait of Hormuz Fee Proposals, Calls Them Extortion
✴️All GCC countries reject any proposal to manage or control traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. ✴️The idea of charging fees for passage is complete nonsense. The whole issue is heavily exaggerated by the Western press and many Western analysts. ✴️The $2...
South Korea's Productivity Surge Outpaces Stagnant Japan
South Korea’s GDP per capita outpaces Japan’s by a CONSIDERABLE MARGIN. Between 2008 and 2025, South Korea's labor productivity has grown by 1.53%/yr, while Japan’s productivity has flatlined at 0.03%/yr. SOUTH KOREA IS LEAVING JAPAN IN THE DUST. https://t.co/b4UNREka7X
Rising Producer Prices Meet Subdued CPI, Squeezing Margins
Good morning, We got PPIs in Japan and China and both are rising. That said, CPI remains subdued thanks to subsidies and weak demand. In other words, we got margin compression as producers are not passing on costs, just yet.
US‑Iran Ceasefire Strains as Iran Accused of Hormuz Breach
JUST IN: US-Iran ceasefire tensions escalated on April 10, ahead of Pakistan talks, as the US charged Iran with violating Strait of Hormuz commitments and Israel struck Lebanon, which Iran claims breaches the truce.
Trump Claims Credit For
Trump taking credit that because of him, Strait of Hormuz is open. Are koi samjhao iss mand buddhi Trump ko.. Before u start the war, the strait of hormuz is open for everyone. I don't know why his focus is...
Oil Climbs Despite Unchanged Hormuz Traffic After Ceasefire
JUST IN: Oil prices are climbing as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire hasn't increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Core Inflation Hides the True Rise in Living Costs
Ouch…. Government inflation data *excluding* food and energy. Now imagine what the real number looks like. https://t.co/TK6XDWuZDb
Iran Faces Choice: Enforce Tribute or Attack Nearby Tankers
The problem for Iran here is someone is going to call their bluff at some point and just sail a ship through without paying the tribute, and then Iran is going to have to decide if it actually wants to...
Low‑rate 2020‑21 Loans Force SME Refinancing Crunch
A lot of lending to small/midsize companies is for a term of 5 to 7 years. A great deal of debt issued 3/2020 to 9/2021 is therefore coming due these days. UST interest rates were near zero in that issuance...
Oil Execs Resist White House Talks on Iranian Hormuz Toll
JUST IN: Oil execs are pushing back on White House talks that could let Iran impose tolls on Strait of Hormuz shipments, threatening oil costs.
Venezuela's Inflation Still World's Highest at 563%
#VNZWatch🇻🇪: Today, I measure Venezuela's inflation AS THE WORLD'S HIGHEST at a CRUSHING 563.3%/yr. That's down from a peak of 828.6%/yr on February 4th. YOU WON’T FIND THIS IMPORTANT STORY IN THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA. https://t.co/jfvcxjsbsm
China Poised to End PPI Deflation in March
Probably the most globally consequential data point you didn’t know was coming out this week. China is expected to have exited PPI deflation in March. Data due in ~90 min. https://t.co/i6OFkfd0Ki
US Administration Still Undecided on Novelis Tariff Relief
.@USTradeRep Greer told my colleague @NoraEckert the administration has been in contact with the Detroit 3 on the Novelis aluminum issue and tariff relief sought: "There hasn't been any decision made by the US government. With the tariff program...
GCC Alignment with Iran Threatens US Investments and Dollar Dominance
Iran calling up its neighbors to resist US-Israel. Let’s assume some of the GCC members fall in line - out of survival - what happens to their US investments and USD hegemony?
Iran's 15 Attacks in 12 Days Cripple Oil, LNG Flows
15 attacks in 12 days by Iran disrupted global oil and LNG flows #OilMarkets #Energy #Shipping #Geopolitics #Hormuz https://t.co/ocx5vrbgxM
US Labor Participation Hits 1977 Low, Threatening Growth
US labor-force participation fell to 61.9% in March, the lowest since 1977, excluding the pandemic episode. WORK IS BECOMING UNFASHIONABLE. FEWER WORKERS = SLOWER GROWTH. https://t.co/gyKlvb212z
Tariff Refund Uncertain as Alternative Authorities May Cut $168B
Fox: Is Trump expecting to pay back $168B in tariff revenue post the SCOTUS decision? NEC Hassett: Uh...there's alternative authorities that perhaps could reduce that number quite a bit. Uh...it's a work in progress. Does that mean you are not getting a...
Dallas Fed: Feb PCE Inflation at 1.
The Dallas Fed trimmed mean inflation gauge suggests firm February PCE inflation reflected larger increases in a smaller subset of items. Trimmed mean PCE inflation printed at a 1.8% annualized rate in February. The 12-month reading fell to 2.3%, the lowest since...
Iran's Grip on Hormuz Makes Strait Unassailable
Former British diplomat Alastair Crooke on Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz: "It's very clear that there's no way in which the Strait can be taken now." https://t.co/dYniHw5J0A
Live Talk: Iran War Ceasefire's Impact on Oil
Sitting down with @notthreadguy for a live conversation about the Iran War, the "ceasefire", and what it all means for oil. Starting now, tune in!
Broaden View: Compare Foreign Holdings Across All Sovereigns
If you routinely post a chart of the foreign holdings of US Treasuries but never post a chart of the foreign holdings of other global Sovereigns, you are missing the forest for the trees. https://t.co/GMjr60j0dV
Inflation Surge: CPI Expected 3.3%, Dollar Under Pressure
The Feb PCE deflator - Fed's favorite inflation measure - held at 2.8% earlier. That's well above the 2.0% target...before energy prices sored. Tomorrow's March CPI update is expected to accelerate from 2.4% in Feb to 3.3%. Here's the #Dollar...
2026 PCE Durables Prices Surge, Double 2025 Pace
2026 is already tracking to be another abnormal year for PCE durables prices, up 1.5% since December, double the pace at this same point in 2025. Over the prior 5 non-pandemic years, durables prices were up 0.3% on average through...
Oil Shock Inflation Temporary, Fed Should Keep Cutting Rates
Kevin Hassett tells @MariaBartiromo the inflation from the oil-price shock will be temporary and should allow the Fed to continue cutting interest rates: "There are a lot of people who are currently at the Federal Reserve that understand that, that this...
Gold, Not Currency, Will Dominate Future Reserves
"But what currency will replace the USD in global FX reserves?" -Question I've been asked repeatedly over the past 10 years. "No currency will...gold will." -My answer every time over those 10 years. What if the currency system...
Self‑Sufficiency Policy Reverts Century, Undermines US Global Power
Forcing everyone to secure their own resources takes us back about a century, triggering conflicts and competition over resource control. This move weakens America's global position... #geopolitics #trump #nato https://t.co/XjQdUuGG3H
Only 12% View US as Ally, 36% See Threat
only 12% of europeans polled across six countries see the united states as a close ally. 36% see it as a threat.
1970s Shah Warned of Oil Stakes in Hormuz
In the 1970s, the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the father of @PahlaviReza, spoke about the Strait of Hormuz…. He was a strong ally of the United States until he was overthrown in 1979 by Ayatollah Khomeini… In this...
Iran Now Demands $2M Bitcoin for Hormuz Passage
Iran is charging up to $2M in Bitcoin to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This isn't a win it was literally free just a few weeks ago...
Fed's 2% Target Deemed Myth; No Near-Term Hikes
JPMorgan’s Bob Michele went on to say that the Fed’s 2% target is increasingly a “myth,” and that US central bankers are tacitly accepting a higher rate as acceptable. So even if inflation stays sticky, he doesn’t see rate hikes...
Iran's Illegal Strait of Hormuz Hold Undermines U.S. Force
"Continuing Crisis in Strait of Hormuz: Why Iran’s Hold is Illegal and U.S. Military Force Alone Fails" https://t.co/h8YXNFL0Qe
Messy Hormuz Reopening Fuels Shipowners' Profit Surge
The more "messy"/"inefficient" the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz is, the higher shipowners' profits are 🇮🇷🛢️🚢 @ed_fin on "Persian Gulf Traffic Jam" as tanker bull case: Apple🔊https://t.co/qUjYx8adg2 Spotify📽️https://t.co/07NUjj4n74 1/2 https://t.co/yWohqK1at9
Attacks Shut Down Key Saudi Energy Facilities, One Killed
🟥🟥🟥Official Source at the Ministry of Energy: Operational Activities Halted at Several Energy Facilities in the Kingdom due to Recent Attacks https://t.co/YhaVlatjkT Riyadh, April 9, 2026, SPA -- An official source at the Ministry of Energy stated that important energy facilities in...
Core CPI Must Rescue Markets Amid 0.9% Crude Spike
CPI hedging dominating now after 30y auction. Crude driven headline expected to print at an eye-popping 0.9% so it will be up to core to save us
Iran's 15‑ship Limit Won't Mean 15 VLCCs
I'm not sure who needs to hear this but Iran's 15-ship daily limit isn't going to be 15 VLCCs each laden with 2 million barrels of oil.
US Jobless Claims Rise Amid Growing Middle‑East Conflict
The US Initial Jobless Claims just released at 219K, INCREASING from 203K the prior week. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN IS QUIETLY BLEEDING INTO THE US LABOR MARKET. https://t.co/Mab6oRpgWw
GDPNow's 5.4% Forecast Was Way Off
Remember the administration crowing when the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model said in early Jan that Q4 GDP growth was 5.4%? Latest official estimate: 0.5%. Moral: Ignore "tracking" models. And Trump's econ team.
Digital Oil Payments Threaten US Financial Dominance
Not good. “.. if payments accompanying 20% of the world’s oil and gas can move through a digital pipe that the US Treasury cannot see, then America’s dominance of global finance has effectively been handed an expiry date.” @opinion https://t.co/HhlUpqnmVF https://t.co/CE6vgUpJlz
Public Q&A with Experts on IMF, World Bank Issues
At the start of @IMFNews and @WorldBank meetings @CGDev does a briefing for journalists on what are big questions and our take on them. This year we are opening this to the public. Come put your questions to experts...
Markets Calm as Middle East Tensions Ease, Bull Persists
Stress levels in the financial markets have subsided a bit as the conflict in the Middle East enters its 5th week. Bonds and equities (and their vols) have moderated as the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz is ticking up...
Europe Faces Fuel Shortage After Hormuz Shipment Ends
So tomorrow Europe gets its last shipment of oil from the Strait of Hormuz. Based on that timing, if the Strait were to open tomorrow Europe's next oil shipment would come at the end of May. Reports are circulating that...
Thailand's 12‑Month Deflation Linked to Low Money Supply
Thailand's March CPI is -0.08%/yr. That's the 12th consecutive month in DEFLATION. In the past 3 years, its money supply has grown BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 5.4-7.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting a 1-3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY...
Iran's Missile Arsenal Fuels Strait Leverage; CPI Sparks Macro Shift
FEDWATCH: “Iran keeps leverage over the Strait without using significant military force .. gains its leverage from a flexible missile arsenal, remaining at ~1,500 missiles and ~200 launchers “Tomorrow’s CPI is therefore the kickoff for the macro effects as negotiations begin.”...
Q4 2025 GDP Growth Stalls to 0.5%, Tariffs Blamed
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025. That’s DOWN from 4.4% the prior quarter. TRUMP TARIFFS = ECONOMIC WRECKING BALL. https://t.co/Rm9so1qJXE
EU Warns as Nations Grapple with Soaring Energy Costs
EU sounds the warning bell as countries face soaring energy prices https://t.co/c7S4lxI7D8 via @suzannelynch1 https://t.co/rMfXvLzmAu
Container Rates Surge Amid Fuel Costs, Hormuz Tensions
Container Rates Rise Again as Fuel Costs, Hormuz Uncertainty Ripple Through Global Trade. Mixed results among trade lanes. Even the Transatlantic tradelane went up. https://t.co/wFdYFryl0O
Middle East War Headlines Instantly Dent Oil and Gilt Markets
Markets remain incredibly sensitive to Middle East War headlines. Case in point: the latest Israel-Lebanon headlinea erased 4 percentage points of today’s oil price gains (CNBC chart below). Even more significantly, they took 8 basis points off the 10-year UK gilt...
Trump Pushes Rate Cuts, Fed Resists Higher Interest
Trump and the FED. They are fighting over interest rates. Trump wants them to go down drastically. The FED wants to keep them higher. Listen to Matthew Piepenburg his vision here: https://t.co/DjayphsEa4
Italy Urges EU to Suspend Budget Rules Amid Iran Crisis
Italy says the EU should pause its budget rules if Iran crisis persists https://t.co/T2VEpLuhy8 via @Alemrome https://t.co/Ezc3ypjswJ