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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Friday's closing correction was also on the basis of war. So, what do you think? How much will fall tomorrow? Or has the war's impact already been discounted in the Indian stock market?
Problems in Dubai are not just for people staying there - it spills over to India - we get $45 bn of remittances from the Middle East each year.
1/ Update on middle east tensions & their market impact : - Iran's Supreme leader is dead , new leadership will take charge soon (likely today) - IRGC announced to hit America & Israel today in the most intense way - Trump responded...
⚠️China is indeed DUMPING US Treasuries: China’s holdings of US government bonds dropped -$75.5 BILLION in 2025, to $683.5 billion, the lowest since September 2008, the Financial Crisis. Since the 2013 peak, holdings have fallen -$633.2 BILLION.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/china-sold-a-significant-amount-of-us-treasuries-in-2025
“The Chinese economy in 2025…is like a giant machine where large parts are beginning to cool down, while a considerable part remains at high temperature. But the temperature of this part is difficult to conduct to the cooling parts.” @ChinaFile https://t.co/oC1Pwzm8je
China new home prices fell at fastest pace in 3+ yrs (Feb). Macro: property slump drags growth. Key factors: weak demand, limited policy relief. Risks: wealth erosion, consumption hit. Trade: short Chinese property developers/RE ETFs 🔻 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD,...
🚨 IRAN WAR UPDATE — MARCH 1, 2026 🚨 Khamenei is confirmed dead by Iranian state media. But the bigger story: the IRGC has formally closed the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping firms are instructing vessels to shelter in place. About 20%...
Thinking ahead... does this push China to further speed up the adoption of renewables + batteries and make it even more reluctant to wind down coal. The Iran war is an object lesson in a) American power (which shale has...
Being a Demand Planner, I am trained to notice patterns, seasonality and cycles. To notice the root cause of those disrupting signals and what causes them, so I can get my forecasting model right and predict future events. Since January 20, 2025,...
the us and israel attacked iran. why now and what comes next? i break down the decision, the risks of escalation, and what to watch. with @ted
#BrazilWatch🇧🇷: Brazil's inflation is 4.4%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3.0% inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.6%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3.0%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
NPC signals 4.5–5% growth, tech rotation to AI specialists and ~1.5tn CNY ultra‑long bonds to fund infra; housing risks and policy disappointment loom. Trade: buy selective China AI-tech names for cyclical catalyst exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China Daily: “Around 5% seen as likely GDP target—Consumption, innovation expected to emerge as key economic engines in 2026” https://t.co/mvmKY53AFy
The Eurozone’s inflation comes in at 1.9%/yr. That's below its 2%/yr target. The ECB’s money supply is only growing at 3.4%/yr. That's BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 6%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting ECB’s 2%/yr target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY...
How Trump’s War Could Destabilize the Global Energy Market #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/5Rh1Ysyc2w https://t.co/XMEM6rLIOY
https://t.co/U4SkF1hAbc @UBS boosting its copper price target is just the latest confirmation of what we’ve been warning about for years: the world is flying head-first into a structural copper shortage. A projected $15,000/tonne copper price by 2027… and a half-million-tonne supply deficit...
What will happen? What did happen with the housing data last week? Demand went up, inventory went down, but I also have a special section about #mortgagerares and the conflict. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #economics #chartdaddy
Distinguished Columbia Prof. Jeff Sachs on the US strikes on Iran: “The U.S. has stepped into shit today, if I could put it bluntly.” https://t.co/TcqwrdIyD9
Visionary investor @ctindale takes on THE big question: How did America and the West become so dependent on imports for almost everything we use? Tindale says the Western focus on the financial economy over the material economy has led to a...
Major News to Track on March 1, 2026: 1. US-Israel Strikes on Iran Escalate, Khamenei Reported Dead 2. Oil Prices Surge Amid Fears of Strait of Hormuz Disruption 3. Global Stock Markets Brace for Volatility Post-Iran Attacks 4. EPF Announces...
Here’s what we wrote in our last macro memo on January 13th, should become a much more interesting trade over the coming weeks: https://t.co/iqiIN2DGsB
🚨 OPERATION EPIC FURY — Feb 28, 2026 US and Israel launched a massive military campaign against Iran at 1:15 AM ET. Regime change is the stated goal. Iran retaliated, striking US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and UAE. US officials say...
A Weak Dollar Won’t Fix the Trade Deficit There’s a popular belief that a weaker dollar will reduce the U.S. trade deficit by boosting exports and reducing imports. In the short term, the opposite often happens. When the dollar falls, imports immediately become...
Quite good actually; The recent read on PMI gave a big outlier: 57.7 The highest read since May '22. It doesn't say that we immediately need to pump with #Bitcoin or whatsoever, although it gives an indication of where the economy and markets...
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdogan condemned the US–Israeli strikes on Iran and warned that if diplomacy and common sense do not prevail, the region could be dragged into a “ring of fire.” ERDOGAN'S 'RING OF FIRE' IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT. https://t.co/EISjbPXLJq
Here's a list of major geopolitical events since WWII. Up a median of 5% six months later. All of them felt really bad at the time. https://t.co/Jb3QXL0L05
If this is the day that Khamenei is killed, Iran is being attacked by the U.S. And the markets aren't down at all. Then there's not really any argument left for uncertainty anymore and I would expect #Bitcoin to turn upwards. https://t.co/5S5RfEOLqd
Is the Strait of Hormuz Open? ▶️Danger to Shipping ▶️US and UK Waring ▶️Impact for Consumers ▶️Other Factors Impacting Global Tanker Market ▶️Is US Sealift & Afloat Prepositioning Moving? Video: https://t.co/SgdGJdWaSD https://t.co/Cvj3mRaiq7
The growth rate in U.S. commercial bank credit has been steadily picking up. On Feb. 18th it was 6.7%/yr. When it comes to the money supply, commercial banks are the elephant in the room. They produce 80% of M2. THE US INFLATION GENIE...
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly warned that no vessels are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This blockade of the channel, which carries ~20% of global oil, threatens massive energy price spikes and severe, immediate disruptions...
Following the US-Israeli attack on Iran, an Iranian counter-attack launched a drone strike close to the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, UAE. The Burj Khalifa has been evacuated. https://t.co/zrHYb8kfrf
Iran/US experts are everywhere today... Here is a friendly reminder that the case for energy is rooted in structural forces — not short-term geopolitical events. US energy sector capex, adjusted for GDP, is still down nearly 80% from prior peaks. Investors obsess...
The sheer volume of just one year of hyperscaler capex spending is mind boggling https://t.co/MtseOemoPC
10yr yield down 34bps in less than 4 weeks @stockcharts Will rates drop on Monday? #Iran https://t.co/0jT2TsHb42
Where will the next wave of global growth come from? 🌊 @McKinsey_MGI breaks down the 18 industries, from AI to healthcare, set to drive up to $48 trillion in revenue by 2040. These 🔟 charts visualize the future of competition: https://t.co/MURdZJwPdW...
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Turkey's CPI is 30.7%/yr. NO SURPRISE. Turkey's money supply (M3) is growing at 40.9%/yr. That is well above Hanke's Golden Growth of 12.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Turkey's inflation target of 5.0%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/rvnlCC3318
🚨 The US and Israel just launched strikes on Iran. Tehran is firing back. Missiles hitting Gulf states. Markets open Sunday night. Oil. Gold. Nasdaq. Forex. Everything gaps. I'm going LIVE Sunday 6PM ET to break down what this means for your trades. Don't...
The quiet part here is that Canadian universities will get a business development opportunity without Indian students coming to Canada and seeking to work & stay, as they had under Trudeau policies which saw their numbers grow exponentially.
It is notable that PM Carney has put Canada behind regime change by US force in Venezuela & in Iran. I believe this is a departure from the traditional position Canada takes on the global stage, but eager to hear...
Bond bulls that were celebrating 10y UST yields dropping <4% on Friday waking up Saturday morning to reports that the Strait of Hormuz is possibly being closed 👇 https://t.co/pg9o9TPdO5
Markets have survived every geopolitical shock in history Pearl Harbor took 307 days to recover. Kuwait took 189. 9/11 took 31. The average? 47 days Today the US and Israel struck Iran. History says buy the dip - but how long...
1/8 I predicted the Great Recession 3 years before it happened. It might sound ridiculous, but mainstream economists have convinced themselves that private debt does not matter. They only monitor government debt. EconomicTheory
Iran is sending out warnings on VHF announcing the banning of all ships from the Strait of Hormuz. However, traffic is still moving. What's Going on with Shipping will be monitoring traffic through the Strait. https://t.co/0rPIFY825Q
News feed cleanse and the nerdiest post you'll see all weekend. The EU's new Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP) rules will also apply to goods manufactured in special economic zones and export processing zones. Which is pretty cool.
When markets open tomorrow night, they'll be hunting for winners and losers from war with Iran. Turkey is a big energy importer (red) and its trade deficit excluding gold and energy is near record levels (blue). Turkish Lira will be...
Trump communicates intention of full destruction of Iran leadership and military while calling for regime change. Iran hits all of its neighboring countries who were likely on the more apprehensive side of US taking action in the first place and...
The chaos doesn't stop. There's been Greenland, a yield spike in Japan, private credit ructions and AI. Now it's Iran. Easy to miss the forest for the trees and that's precious metals. Gold is up 22% this year. Silver 31%....
Our community is buzzin' about this 5 min clip from this week's Macro Pro Q&A Show https://t.co/MxH68qpK7Y
March 2026 Monthly: March seems to be more about the unfolding of current forces driving the capital markets, rather than new forces or policies. All the G10 central banks but the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet in March, and...
Qatar Airlines is pausing cargo operations as the Iran strikes play out. Prices and transit times on Asia to Europe air freight spiking.
