Pakistan Urges Iran to Reopen Hormuz, Pause Fighting
🚨 Pakistan requesting Iran: ➡️ Open straight of Hormuz for 2 weeks ➡️ Ceasefire for two weeks ➡️ Trump to extend deadline for 2 weeks ➡️ Meanwhile, Iranian official tells Reuters: exchanges via mediators still ongoing (😇 this morning it was cutoff?)
China’s Reported Exports to US Dwarf Imports Post‑301 Tariffs
Indeed, an important question -- Ever since the 301 tariffs were introduced, the exports that China reports to the US have far exceeded US imports -- and now the gap is exceptionally big 1/3 https://t.co/b1eDSKKtRz
Firms Use Legal and Illegal Tactics to Dodge US Tariffs
In today's thrilling episode of "least surprising tariff news ever", the NYT reports that firms have reacted to historically high and complex US tariffs by engaging in lawful and unlawful ways to avoid paying them. Shocked, shocked, etc etc. https://t.co/f7tZuI7dgo
Iran's Oil Revenues Soar Amid War-Driven Price Spikes
My view on Iran's surge in revenues since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran with @CoffeeandaMike: "Since the war started, the Iranians have been shipping a lot more crude out of the Strait of Hormuz, they've been selling at...
Oil Shock Dampened: Prices Below Peaks, Economy Decouples
So far this oil shock is not quite at the level of previous shocks. 1. Inflation adjusted, prices still aren't at their highest 2. The world's economy is less coupled to oil than in years past.
Trump Admin Warned of $200 Oil, Brent Hits $144
Two weeks ago, we scooped that the Trump administration was modeling the impact of oil prices reaching as high as $200 a barrel due to the #IranWar. Dated Brent oil just hit a record about $144...
Inflation‑Adjusted Six‑Month Futures Spread Near Record
"After adjusting for inflation, the six-month futures spread is on course to exceed the previous record set in October 1990, after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and as the United States and its allies massed forces in the Gulf." @JKempEnergy https://t.co/26TVbx2H9d
Iran Strikes Saudi’s Key Industrial Hub, Al Jubail.
After being attacked, Iran has counterattacked. Iran launched ballistic missiles targeting Al Jubail Industrial City in Saudi Arabia. Jubail has 150 industrial facilities and 2 oil refineries accounting for 25% of Saudi refining capacity. https://t.co/7mXVOrYTVW
Chinese Sulphur Prices Surge Daily, Threatening Food Costs
I repeat, Chinese sulphur prices are up literally every day (save two) since war began. 24/26 Odds of this happening (if this was a coin flip) are 1 in ~200,000 This will have consequences for fertilizer and therefore food prices. 1/3
Trump's Iran Threat Likely Triggers Market Decline
US - IRAN war update 💣 Big Threat by Trump 🚨 As expected - Market will react negatively 🔻⚠️ @champ_trader
First Sale Metrics Reveal Tariff Impact on Retailers
The reality of dealing with the Trump tariffs. Import value. First Sale. Maybe Last Sale, if it happens. Does using First Sale reflect the size of the retailer? And manufacturers?
Iran's Antifragile Tactics Undermine US War Strategy
The Iran war is going badly for the US It pressures targets with brute force Iran absorbs, adapts & pushes the pressure into the global economy That’s antifragile This doesn’t end well for the US unless the approach changes LINK👇 https://t.co/ggyDr16zPe #Iran #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Systems
Trump Blames Greenland for NATO Breakup
the unnecessary origin story of trump's nato breakup, in his own words: "it all began with greenland."
Build Global Energy Corridors to Bypass Hormuz, Says Hochstein
".... The only long-term solution is new infrastructure—making a massive, internationally coordinated investment in energy corridors that bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely... " -- @amoshochstein https://t.co/hvu4ACTwok
Rapid US Rally Could Trigger Dollar Spike and Inflation
The risk nobody speaks about. Everyone wants a V-shape recovery. I don’t. If US stocks snap back too fast, hedge funds in Europe, Japan, Brazil sell everything locally and rush into the US. Dollar spikes to 110. Inflation restarts. What I want: slow...
Impending Bahrain Conflict Could Trigger Oil Market Catastrophe
I sat down with @JoshYoung, CIO of Bison Interests - the fund that returned 349% in a single year on oil. He told me this war is far from over. And the real crisis hasn't even started. "I don't think the market...
Trump's Iran Threat Drives Treasury Volatility, Long Bonds Lag
Trump’s Iran ultimatum is basically the only story for bond traders today. USTs have seen a volatile morning, swinging back and forth in reaction to the news and moves in crude oil prices. They are now recovering from the early...
Walmart Signals Recession, Yet Bullish Signals Remain
The Walmart indicator is flashing recession. But that’s not the full story. On the latest Jim Paulsen Show, we break down what it’s signaling, the implications of the oil shock, and the bullish indicators most investors are missing. 🎙️https://t.co/6nYM17bPMj 🍏https://t.co/JjLRDxh7gP 📺https://t.co/FzjaKKwQ5m
Core PCE Holds Steady at 3% Amid Iran Shock
Wall Street forecasters estimate the core PCE index (due Thursday) rose 0.39% in February, which would round to 0.4% for the third straight month. Because the Feb 2025 comparison is favorable (it was even higher a year ago), the 12-month rate...
6% Yield Trigger Could Force US Debt Restructuring
See my 10Y yield targets then read this quote by Jeff Gundlach: “Well, I think my base case is that the long-term interest rates on treasuries will move higher until such time as they get to a level that is difficult...
Brent Futures Hit Record Backwardation Amid US‑Iran Tensions
Brent (physical and futures) still pricing for a short war Brent prices have surged into a record backwardation as the United States and Iran threaten to escalate their conflict by attacking energy infrastructure on both sides of the Persian Gulf. In the...
Fed Likely to Cut Rates by Year-End, Says Analyst
In-depth interview with @MilkRoadMacro, covered lots of ground but my prediction for the Fed is different than most analysts: because of what the war and inflation may do to the economy, I think the lower rates by year end, not...
Rubio: Iran's Hormuz Attacks Threaten Global Commerce
Rubio this morning on the impact of the Iran war: "The whole world’s been impacted unfortunately because Iran is violating every law known by striking commercial vessels in the Straits of Hormuz, and it’s a big problem for the world."
IMF Should Fear Capital Flight From US Markets
FWIW - If America is blamed for higher prices and shortages around the world, the flight the IMF should be most concerned about is out of American capital markets headed back to domestic economies.
Flat Yields Signal Recession Concerns over Inflation
Should we be concerned that bond yields and mortgage rates are flat/down in the midst of current events? Especially on the back of a hot jobs report... You can call it "wait or see" or maybe things are a lot worse...
Houthis Threaten Bab El‑Mandeb Closure, Risk Oil Price Surge
The Houthis attempting to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait by again turning it into a shooting gallery would be a massive problem and would send oil prices into orbit. Saudis are moving their oil to Asia via the Red Sea...
Dimon Warns Private Credit Market on Brink of Collapse
The dean of America’s banking system, Jamie Dimon, warns that the $1.8T private credit market rests on grounds that become more shaky with each passing day. Defaults are rising. Risky loans are piling up. PRIVATE CREDIT MAY BE THE NEXT DOMINO TO...
Energy Crisis Demands Global Cooperation, IMF & World Bank Meet
This energy crisis calls for all hands on deck & international cooperation I'll meet Monday with IMF Managing Director @KGeorgieva & World Bank President Ajay Banga on our institutions' work to support governments amid the economic impacts of the Iran war...
85% of Spaniards Oppose US‑Israeli War on Iran
The Spaniards fully support PM Pedro Sánchez playing hardball with Trump about the US-Israeli war on Iran. According to a CIS poll, 85% of Spaniards reject the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. https://t.co/CTZI9tuH8Z
Rising Global Debt Threatens Growth, Sparks Inflation Risks
Jamie Dimon: "Global deficits are significantly elevated, particularly during what has been a relatively healthy global economy and, until recently, a time of peace—the deficit globally is at an extremely high 5%, while global sovereign debt is at all-time highs....
Mearsheimer: Trump's Air‑strike Regime‑change Fantasy Is Absurd
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on Trump's uninformed foolishness in his war on Iran: "The idea that you can bomb a country and cause regime change with air power alone is not a serious argument. Why Trump thought he could pull...
Wells Fargo Predicts Swift Strait of Hormuz Reopening
They are drunk in fantasyland over at WFG: "The team at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute has a base case that sees a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz occur relatively soon, as well as limited damage to Middle Eastern...
Prolonged Conflict Benefits Iran, Undermines US‑Israel Edge
My friend and Johns Hopkins colleague Vali Nasr on the folly of Trump climbing the Iranian escalation ladder: “The longer this [war] goes... it is the US and Israel that lose strategic advantage, and Iran that gains.” https://t.co/YkeKqJcI3j
Congress Targets Rare‑Earth Magnets, Threatening US‑China Ties
#MATCHAct very real danger to bilateral relationship, + for US firms facing REE/magnet-related issues. Beijing would respond harshly if some version moves forward. From Coordination to Constraint: Congress Eyes a Memory Squeeze on China—and the World https://t.co/y1sG4ZDOZo https://t.co/oZ3fvm8npl
Independent Inflation Gauge Correctly Predicted Turkey's CPI Decline
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Turkey's March official CPI inflation is 30.8%/yr. That's down from 31.5% in Feb. Today, I measure Turkey's inflation at 20.9%/yr. Since my measure leads the official one, I anticipated that the official number would do just what it did. It...
Global Shift: Gold and Yuan Rise as Dollar Recycling Declines
Translation: MUCH less US dollar recycling... More gold, more yuan; less USD, less UST... #NATO #Iran #Hegemony
Oil Spike Threatens Market; SPY Holds Key Levels
📺 THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM: THIS MARKET CAN FLIP FAST Today is a big geopolitical event for the markets. We either see escalation (oil spikes → market drops hard) or de-escalation (ceasefire, partial reopening of Strait of Hormuz → relief...
IEA: Hormuz Blockade Crisis Exceeds All Past Oil Shocks
PARIS, April 7 (Reuters) - The current oil and gas crisis triggered by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is "more serious than the ones in 1973, 1979 and 2022 together", Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy...
Global Trade Will Outgrow Reliance on Hormuz
The future of global trade won’t depend on the Strait of Hormuz via @FT https://t.co/Xiqe7HbQuN
Fed's Interest on Reserves Isn't a Politician Spending Shortcut
not sure what’s going on at cato but the fed paying iorb does not “allow politicians to funnel mass spending programs through the Fed’s balance sheet”
Brazilian Stocks Remain Deeply Undervalued Compared to Global Markets
What an outstanding chart from my friend @RonStoeferle Brazilian equities remain historically undervalued particularly relative to global equities. Some of my favorite LatAm companies here: https://t.co/0uJrl7UKoA https://t.co/GGfYESXC0g
Dark Shipping Boosts Hormuz Oil Flow to 12 Mb/D
Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is up. You don't see that in publicly available data like these from Bloomberg, because ships now transiting are travelling "dark." I'd say we're now at 12 mb/d out of the Persian...
Only Free Markets, Not Central Banks, Set Rates
"Central banks in general—and the Fed in particular—are on a mission impossible. They don’t know what the interest rate should be. Nobody does. That’s something only a voluntary market of savers and borrowers, dealing in honest money, can determine." #DebtSpiral
Predicting Stocks Is Futile; Iran War Harms Economy
Anyone claiming they know where stock prices are headed is lying to you. More importantly: the idea that war with Iran is somehow good for the American economy is just nonsense. Stock prices are down. Grocery and gas prices are already...
China's Fuel Export Ban Threatens Australia's Jet Fuel Supply
Note that the Chinese readout doesn't mention energy security at all. Elephant in the room is China's fuel export ban. Australia imported a third of its jet fuel from China last year.
AI and Economic Shocks Reshape Europe's Labor Landscape
🎙️ How will Oil Price Shocks, Wage Trends, Skill Shortages, Hiring Slowdowns and AI impact European Labour Markets?? 🎙️ Check out my latest podcast conversation with Julius Probst, PhD, senior economist with Appcast, Inc, https://t.co/t25bUnhAjJ https://t.co/caTO9woVv6
Dollar Flat vs G10, Krona Drops on Soft CPI
On the Edge of the Abyss: The dollar is mostly narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. Leaving aside the Swedish krona, which has fallen nearly 0.75% on the back of an unexpected soft March CPI, the other G10 currencies are...
Oil Gains Threaten Tech, Boost Market Volatility
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – April 7, 2026 🚨 Macro + geopolitics in focus today — watch oil and volatility as the Hormuz deadline looms 👀 🗓️ Economic Events: 0830 - Durable Goods Orders (Feb): Exp -1.2%; Prior 0% 0830 - Core Durable Goods...
UK, Japan, Euro Periphery Lose Fiscal Space
What countries are running out of fiscal space? To see that, you mustn't look at absolute 30-year government bond yields (lhs), as those are up everywhere. Look at 30-year trade-weighted differentials (rhs). The UK, Japan and Euro periphery are in...
Brent Bulls Bet on Escalation, Buying 22M Barrels
Brent bulls focus on escalation not mediation Investors remain exceptionally bullish about the outlook for Brent as prices grind higher and the United States and Iran show no indication of ending the conflict that has slowed exports from the Persian Gulf...