China to Curb Gas Power, Replace LNG with Coal, Renewables
China’s exposure to the loss of Middle East LNG China will likely reduce its liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports in response to the loss of supplies from the Middle East and higher spot prices mostly by curbing gas-fired power generation and replacing it with coal, renewables and nuclear. China consumed 401 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas in 2023, the latest year for which comprehensive data is available from the National Bureau of Statistics. Nearly half of all gas used was in manufacturing (190 bcm), led by chemicals (58 bcm), non-metallic mineral products (37 bcm), ferrous metallurgy (16 bcm) and the processing of oil and coal (12 bcm). Power generators accounted for just 18% (71 bcm), ahead of residential users on 15% (61 bcm), the transport sector (36 bcm) and mining (23 bcm). Similar to other gas-importing countries, China is likely to curb use by generators first to protect supplies for industry and residential users, where there are fewer substitutions that can be made quickly and cheaply ...
Markets Overreact, Then Calm After Political Shocks
Trump knows the market stops overreacting given enough time to digest Happened with the tarrifs too - as 'Liberation Day' grew 4+ weeks old... the market became indifferent and started going up anyway So far, it's happening again with the Iran War
Europe Gas Rises on Middle East Risks; US Prices Fall
European natural gas prices (TTF) are up 6% to about $17/mmbtu on fears that a prolonged disruption in the Middle East will curb supply 🇪🇺 US gas prices (Henry Hub) are down nearly 1% to $2.8/mmbtu as shale production keeps...
Trump's Trade War Threatens Universal Tech Standards
"The global trade war that Donald Trump launched one year ago didn’t just temporarily raise tariffs. It may have also broken the global system that lets technologies like Bluetooth work everywhere." https://t.co/NbTovpYALy
Negotiation Hints Ease Dollar Safe‑Haven Demand
Geopolitical Relief: Markets reacted positively to hints of potential negotiations in the West Asia conflict, which slightly cooled the "safe-haven" demand for the US dollar, despite ongoing volatility in crude oil prices.
Post‑
This is the best retrospective analysis of Liberation Day-vintage tariff price effect estimates versus reality that I've seen. Post-Liberation Day policy changes, trade exceptions/loopholes, and passthrough uncertainty have been key.
Dallas Fed Chief Defends Ample‑reserves, Rejects Tiered Quotas
In a speech this morning, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan delivers a clear defense of the ample-reserves framework at a moment when others (Warsh/Bessent) have implied a course correction would be desirable. In the speech and a far more detailed...
Iran War and Hormuz Blockade: A Marathon, Not Sprint
"Pace yourself. The Iran War and Hormuz closure is a marathon, not a sprint." https://t.co/BU5JGk7A7w
Iran War Prep, UK Drift, China Gains: US Crisis
Devastating frontpage for America. 1/ Iran preparing for prolonged war 2/ UK leaning away from US alliance 3/ strength in China's bond market due to the Iran war What a disaster. https://t.co/XMURlfO7uv
Detroit Fears Chinese Low‑cost High‑tech Cars Entering US
Detroit automakers fear an onslaught of low-cost, high-tech Chinese cars if Trump allows them to be built in the US. Not/not "cheap"....affordable... https://t.co/RL6s942EcW
JPMorgan Says US Must Reopen Hormuz, Doubts Iran's Credibility
JP Morgan’s chief strategist is on CNBC saying the Strait of Hormuz has to be reopened by the US because it’s unthinkable for that not to happen. It’s a ‘temporary oil issue.’ They still don’t believe Iran has any credibility. Amazing.
US Trade Deficit Grows in February Despite Record Exports
US Trade Deficit Widens in February As Imports Offset Record Exports. Capital goods. AI. Will the Iran war affect March? https://t.co/DKavl92Fdl
Iran Turns Hormuz Passage Into Paid ‘Peace’ Toll
Iran’s ‘Tollbooth’ Tightens Grip on Hormuz as Ships Offered Safe Passage—For a Price. Will this be the “peace” of the war? https://t.co/cD3EleDx1i
Missed BoE Chief Economist's Speech—Another Insightful Cracker
sad I missed this speech from the BoE's chief economist. Looks like another cracker https://t.co/Gu7E2vcUmX
Erdoğan Warns War Extension Could Spark Regional Conflict
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan warned prolonging the war risks triggering a broader regional conflict, saying any new fronts would serve Israel’s “bloody strategy,” and vowed Turkey will act “without hesitation” to ensure peace. https://t.co/dy6Disl4Q7
War's Continuation Could Keep 10‑Year Rate Near 5
Thoughts? Certainly could happen but 10 yr could also be close to 5% if this war still rages
Manila, Hanoi, Putrajaya Pursue Separate Iran Energy Deals
Manila, Hanoi, and Putrajaya all seeking separate deals with Iran on energy access in the last few days …
Furman Downplays China's WTO Entry with Flimsy Arguments
Jason Furman does cheap tricks in his NYT column to claim China's admission to the WTO was not a big deal https://t.co/FNZax2GwwE Here's the deal https://t.co/0MyKWLtnWe
Shift From GDP to Statecraft for Better Forecasts
This YouTube video in 45 minutes explains the bigger picture of the world right now. It makes a lot of sense. You can have your own political opinions, but what is unfolding globally follows a clear logic. Michael Every has actually forecasted many...
Trump’s Policies Engineered Massive Oil Spike and Recession
To @anasalhajji ‘s point, you’d be hard pressed to engineer a more perfect recipe for a major sustained spike in crude & products, with accompanying global recession and market crash, than what Trump’s crew has unleashed. The 12-D chess of...
Admin Plans Iran Exit Despite $4+ Gas Surge
With the apparent TACO yesterday, the administration is saying we will wind down our involvement in Iran without figuring out how to work through the disruption leading to $4+ gas prices in the USA? @EnergyEmpirePod https://t.co/N9KbLRP829
Hormuz Disruption Forces Europe Into Diesel Bidding War
With Hormuz still disrupted, diesel is going to the highest bidder Europe will have to compete hard for every marginal barrel. https://t.co/76ycFBcrIj #Diesel #Europe #OilMarkets
OPEC Warns Oil Demand Forecasts Miss Rising ICE Sales
OPEC researchers raise a very important point here. A major oversight in forecasts predicting a sharp drop in oil demand from rising EV adoption is the failure to account for the ongoing growth in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Ironically,...
Aime Williams Unpacks Post‑Tariff Surprises and Court Impact
The very awesome @Aime_Williams joins the podcast to explain what happened since Trump’s April 2, 2025 TARIFF announcement, including SURPRISES buried in the US import and export data, as well what comes next after that momentous SUPREME COURT...
Rising Costs and Bureaucracy Leave Americans Poorer, Growth Stagnant
Our Liberation Day lookback: "Taxes, prices, uncertainty, and bureaucracy climbed, while US manufacturing, FDI, and the trade balance stood still. Exemptions proliferated; lobbying skyrocketed; and most Americans were worse off." https://t.co/9XPW0ZPaZH via @CatoInstitute https://t.co/kyBukF1ymS
Fuel Subsidies Are a Ticking Clock, Not Protection
RM4 billion in subsidies sounds like protection. It is actually a countdown clock. Malaysia has spent more defending fuel prices in one month than most emergency budgets allocate for an entire quarter — and the conflict that triggered it has no...
Rising Gas Prices Won’t Halt Asia’s Renewable Shift
Don't fall for the easy narrative that costly gas will mean more coal burn in Asia. Briefly in the short term maybe, but the long term trajectory toward renewables gets stronger. Look at the math behind the argument. 🎁🔗 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-04-01/iran-war-the-lng-shock-isn-t-driving-asia-back-to-coal
Embargo Preferred Over Military to Stabilize Oil Prices
Taking Kharg Island or bombing powerplants takes Iran's oil off global markets for a long time. That spikes oil by a lot more and is what markets fear most. Better to do an embargo and take Iran's oil off the...
Tariffs Fail; Prioritize Productivity, Affordability, and Growth
Tariffs have not created manufacturing jobs. Smart economic strategy would stop measuring success by the number of assembly lines reopened & start with what raises living standards: productivity, affordability and economic growth. by @jasonfurman https://t.co/3AnFZhCNK6
Most Retailers Expect to Raise Prices Within Six Months
Majority of retailers plan to raise prices over the next six months per KPMG research https://t.co/HWavaKDEbW via @wwd
Trump’s War Address Sends Oil Market Into Whiplash
Whipsawed once again: That is the state of the oil market and beyond as investors react to President Trump’s address to the nation regarding the Middle East War. (5-day WTI oil price chart below from CNBC.) #economy #markets #oil #MiddleEastWar @cnbc
WTI Hits $108, Still Cheaper Than Brent
Oil prices surge, WTI May at $108 now. This is the "cheap" oil (Brent is more expensive)
China Poised to Benefit From Iran War Dynamics
In the days after the Iran war started, Erica Downs and I wrote @ForeignPolicy about why despite large oil and imports through the strait, China could be a counterintuitive winner. This week’s @TheEconomist captures the dynamic well, far beyond...
Markets Snap Back to Trend After Failed War‑off‑ramp Hope
One way to see today’s risk-off trade is markets hoped for an Iran war off-ramp in President Trump’s speech and there wasn’t one. Another is that markets were receptive to hopium at month- and quarter-end this week and now we’re on...
Read This Essential Take on Trump's Tariff Anniversary
i might end up posting this 17 times today but if you only read one piece on the anniversary of Trump's Liberation Day Tariffs let it be this one, by Alan Beattie https://t.co/R5b5Z5FntW
Iran War Drives US Oil Demand Collapse, Cuts Forecast
Lower EIA US oil forecast probably reflects demand destruction & weakened economic activity resulting from the Iran war @Peter_Strachan
Global Quad3 Stagflation Triggers Bond Yield Surge
US Stocks Only Fans don't get it, but The Bond Market does It's called Global #Quad3 Stagflation with a breakout in Bond Yields https://t.co/LfjSg2suV3
Caution Needed Before Declaring China Iran War’s Biggest Beneficiary
In this, some pushback against the view born of speculation or political prejudice that China is the biggest winner of the Iran war, innit? The args are warnings and poss serious but there is much to weigh b4 jumping to...
China Drives One‑Third of Global Growth Since 2000s
China has become a major engine of the global economy since joining the WTO in 2001, with its share of global production rising from 2% in 1995 to 16% in 2018 & as growing source of final demand. China accounted...
Natural Disasters Lead Supply Disruptions; Geopolitics Rise in Agri
Natural disasters emerge as the dominant trigger for supply disruptions in agriculture and energy. Geopolitical risks mainly affect energy and precious metals markets and have recently become important also for agricultural commodities https://t.co/vE0F6bepwD
Hedge Funds Suffer March Losses Amid Middle East Conflict
March was BRUTAL: Some of the world’s biggest hedge funds known for delivering steady returns lost money as the war in the Middle East roiled markets across energy, bonds and equities and forced traders to unwind crowded positions. Here are...
New Geopolitics & Markets Insight for Subscribers
April 2, 2026, 4:50 AM, website comment for subs on geopolitics and markets. Link in reply below 👇 https://t.co/tWw5e5VWPG
BOE Flags Rising AI Risks and Iran War Fallout
BOE warns on escalating risks from AI, fallout from Iran war https://t.co/594BS0hMsV via @LauraNoonanX https://t.co/B8PjSkjcFw
China Clamps Down on Consumer Lending, Forces Lower Rates
Interesting Caixin article on China’s intensifying crackdown on the consumer lending and loan-facilitation business, with regulators summoning major platforms for talks and pressing the industry to sharply curb borrowing costs. https://t.co/BIv3i5trGx
Chinese Solar Makers Raise Prices, Market Remains Stagnant
Yicai: "Leading Chinese manufacturers of solar modules have raised the prices of their products, as China is lifting the 9 percent rebates on the export value-added tax for photovoltaic products. However even as large manufacturers have raised prices, the market...
Swiss Inflation Spikes to Yearly High Amid Iran War
Swiss inflation jumps to fastest in a year on Iran war impact https://t.co/n7MEJQhy7V via @bbenrath https://t.co/8IJWhj1Apq
China's EV Surge Cushions Potential Hormuz Oil Shutdown
China imports the most oil via the Strait of Hormuz but is also one of the best placed to weather its closure. EVs are part of that story. Five years ago China targeted 20% of new vehicles in 2025. They...
Oil Prices Surge to Suppress Demand, Fertilizer Costs Safe
PODCAST: Great to be back at "Odd Lots" with @tracyalloway and @TheStalwart. Lots to discuss linked to the US-Iran war: why oil prices will go much higher to destroy demand, but why expensive fertilizer doesn't mean a food crisis is coming. https://t.co/UoHIl2cOqk
Traders Prematurely Betting on BOE Rate Hike
Bailey says traders are getting ahead of themselves on BOE rate hike bets https://t.co/eeKELZndt9 via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/kDqxSw5RoE
Global Strategy Drives Disruptive, Long-Term Geopolitical Conflict
This was never a local conflict. What looks regional is built on years of preparation, alignment, and strategy. Different actors. Shared objectives. Long-term planning. And the focus isn’t just confrontation — it’s disruption at scale: energy flows, shipping routes, and global systems. That’s what makes this different. Not short. Not...