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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Interesting read, certainly something to consider. Even somewhat aligns with the business cycle views I expressed here: https://t.co/Ao19CL9d25 I think there is a reason to believe the current business cycle will end within the next 2-3 years from a liquidity point of view.
Kyle Chan: "China’s strength across multiple overlapping industries creates a compounding effect for its industrial policy efforts." https://t.co/1Z2o8dcRWq
Syria's oil production is a zero-rounding error @NoamRaydan Current levels are roughly 100–120 kb/d. Max production before the Civil War was 400 kb/d. As you note, its heavy, sour crude must be exported to Greece or Italy b/c it has no complex...
Stocks have had one of their best three year runs in history and the economy hasn't sniffed a recession. https://t.co/hBhFjc8em2
Europe’s gas problem isn’t a lack of LNG — it’s a lack of buffer, writes @seb_kennedy With storage below 32%, even hypothetical risks like Hormuz move prices fast. #TTF #LNG #EnergySecurity #GasMarkets #Geopolitics
Trump's tariff drama intensifies while markets await key inflation data and Fed signals. The plot thickens on every front this week. 🟢 Open https://t.co/8tpXkyVt89
Reuters: "German businesses warned of what they called destabilising and unfair global business practices by China, accusing Beijing of driving overcapacity, massive subsidies, distortive foreign-exchange policies and politically motivated export controls. https://t.co/701kYKGi2T
SCMP: "High-speed rail services are already accessible in 97 per cent of Chinese cities with populations of more than 500,000, the State Council said in December." https://t.co/bD3P6HUata
As of Fri's close, the SPX sat just 0.99% below its Jan 28 all-time high (~6,978.6). Yet everyone's screaming "chaos & uncertainty"? Blue = mkt-cap wgted avg "VIX" of the 500 constituents (now 38) Orange = standard 30-day VIX (17.6) Green =...
According to the China Global South Project, in 2025, trade between China and Africa reached $348 billion, a 17.7% increase from 2024. Chinese exports to Africa rose 25.8% to $225 billion, while African exports to China rose 5.4% to $123 billion. https://t.co/RFFOLMKVsP
The Flexport Tariff Simulator is up to date with the latest changes to the tariff code. For now we only have a 10% section 122 in place, awaiting official CFR update on the 15% change Trump announced. We made the...
Looks like a model of AI induced unemployment but complete nonsense. there’s AI actually augmenting labor productivity and some separate labor demand shock (even though labor demand is derived demand from productivity)
The Gift Nifty fools think India will get some special deal You try to dishonor a deal with the US and see what happens. That will surely get you the lower circuit in Gift futures overnight. The stupidity of markets. I am not saying...
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India just signed a $20B mining and minerals pact with Brazil to secure iron ore and fuel steel expansion. US tariff threats push India away, and it pivots towards the global south. https://t.co/JvDQ3RVGy6
Trump. New tariff. Boost for China and Brazil. Current tariff is for 150 days. Then what will Trump do next as to imports and revenue? Supply chain unpredictability.
What's fascinating is that tariffs are deeply unpopular --- as tax increases often are -- and the White House doubles, triples down on them.
January PPI lands Friday. Core PPI already printed +0.7% MoM vs 0.2% expected — biggest monthly jump since July 2025. NY Fed puts underlying PCE trend at 2.83% by December, up from 2.55% in September. WTI crude +15.6% YTD. Rapidan...
L: Productivity miracle 1.0 - autos (white) replace horses (orange) in 10 yrs; horses never recover R: Productivity miracle 2.0 - China replaces US manufacturing workers; US mfg workers down ~35% in 10 yrs Productivity miracle 3.0 - AI v. white-collar jobs;...
Interesting. Will getting tariff refunds be like getting blood from a stone? What will importers do?
Lagarde says US tariff moves risk upsetting equilibrium with the EU https://t.co/ode7ZBLduy via @weberalexander https://t.co/HemjTQHk5r
If you want to read a piece that lays out the best bull/base case scenario, you should go read “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital” by Perez. The book argues that every technological advancement follows the same framework as it relates to...
India postpones trip to finalize trade pact. Global uncertainty on what Trump will do after his 15% for 150 days action is done because his tariffs were deemed not legal. What is ahead for supply chains?
Asia as global manufacturing hub, shown by the ILO. More sources featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/bpfQbXlbHK
JUNE 2028. The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation. What happened? https://t.co/JzzwCrbJgS
So does the US have a balance of payments deficit for purposes of section 122 of the trade law (and thus the basis for imposing a 15% tariff). It is an interesting question 1/ many https://t.co/JidbJk37vw
Were the trade deals with Trump approved by the Senate? Did the Supreme Court void them? What is Trump’s end game? Supply chain uncertainty reigns.
Macro: DHS funding lapse prompted policy reversals. Key: TSA PreCheck remains; Global Entry paused. Risk: service uncertainty may boost travel volatility. Trade: buy select airline stocks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
I had a good discussion with @MargBrennan of @FaceTheNation about the economy, trade, central bank independence and other topics. https://t.co/7S39jwcldt
What is the standing of Trump’s China deal? Congressional approval? What is his end game after Liberation Day tariffs struck down? What circle of hell will supply chains and logistics be in?
Is the UK the biggest loser after Trump’s tariffs are struck down? He will not stop at 15% he announced. That is only good for 150 days. Smoot-Hawley and up to 50% tariff seems more to his liking. Can Trump...
⚠️WHAT IS HAPPENING IN JAPAN? The 4 largest Japanese life insurers, Nippon Life, Dai-ichi Life, Sumitomo Life, and Meiji Yasuda, had a combined ¥13.2 trillion ($86 billion) in unrealized losses on government bonds at the end of 2025. Losses have risen over...
Early invite to my network, as I am going live in an hour to debunk what Elon Musk says: The U.S. is 1000% heading for bankruptcy without AI. I ran the model. Then I ran it again with correct accounting. The doom loop...
When it comes to Trump's tariff threats on China, it's clear that chairman Xi holds all the cards. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = BACKFIRE. https://t.co/ACGdxKxjr0
In 2024 and 2025, Mexico grew at an annualized pace of 0.8%, even as the US grew at an annualized pace of 2.3% in those two years. Mexico's growth stagnation, which - outside of COVID - has now lasted since...
The last truly independent central bank Governor in Turkey was fired in March 2021. That sent the Lira into a devaluation spiral from which it's never recovered. It doesn't matter who the economic team is now. If Erdogan did this...
For as long as I can remember, Argentina has tried to become credible and stable by pegging the Peso to the Dollar. The success rate of this strategy - in all the years it's been tried - is exactly ZERO....
The Creature from Jekyll Island is a must read book. It helps you understand the creation of the federal reserve banking system in the states. The truth is that, The U.S. central banking system was conceived in private by a...
Everyone's worried about foreign countries dumping U.S. bonds, but here's what mainstream economists won't tell you about government finances. The link to the complete presentation is in the comments.
Live from 10:30 ET: I’ll be speaking with Margaret Brennan on @FaceTheNation @CBSNews. We’ll discuss the economic outlook and other topics. If you are in the US, follow the interview https://t.co/6JMj9WbdTi https://t.co/1uPSzrclkX
What comes after the Supreme Court’s striking down Trump’s tariffs and his using Section 122 surcharges expire after 150 days? And the trade deals with tariffs that exceed 15%? It is all curiouser and curiouser for supply chains. And logistics?
Global trade trap. US tantrums. China bravado. How should your supply chain and its logistics change to adapt to a new trade?
The Dollar used to rally on strong data, but that's no longer true. Recent examples are strong payrolls on Feb 11 or hot core PCE inflation on Feb 20. We're in the early stages of a regime change for USD,...
Cuba has been cut off from oil, and solar power is saving Cuba. The irony here is the U.S. is making Cuba actually energy independent, which is likely the opposite desired effect Trump is seeking to have.
The oil glut narrative is dying or dead A market rallying 18% YTD isn’t drowning in supply. Yes, barrels exist on paper But sanctions, disruptions, inventories & geopolitics mean they’re not available where prices are set. These views are from the @BloombergNRG article. I agree...
Teheran now believes it's marked for death, writes @ctindale Once survival replaces strategy, restraint evaporates & chaos becomes leverage Anyone who thinks this isn’t about oil—specifically balancing China’s grip on metals—simply isn’t paying attention #Geopolitics #Iran #Deterrence #EnergySecurity #PowerPolitics #Risk #MiddleEast #StrategicStability
Weekly Market Analysis , Macro Update & Trade ideas on Gold , US indexes & Bitcoin https://youtu.be/HNcStxTfQSg?si=D3pxln2A4J1VbDYV
🔴 IRAN WAR RISK IS ESCALATING FAST Military buildup. Failing diplomacy. Rising oil volatility. Subscribers have been tracking the escalation path and the market consequences before the headlines. Know what comes next. ⚠️Subscribe now on website⚠️ #Iran #Geopolitics #WarRisk #Oil #GlobalRisk
Forget the Western propaganda about the economies of Russia and Ukraine. Contrary to Western media, Russia is not about ready to collapse. It's Ukraine that is in trouble. Don't forget Hanke's 95% Rule: 95% of what you read in the press is either wrong...
Here's almost everything I know about tariffs in light of yesterday's Supreme Court ruling. Watch til the end to learn how to get your company's refund from the government. https://t.co/GFmQbceVox
War with Iran & energy dominance are unrelated IMO @AsimRiaz1978 Trump knows an Iran strike risks an oil spike & voter blowback at the pump. That's why I think the buildup & a strike are coercive leverage, not a plan...
