Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Very interesting that Thomas, Alito, and Kav would sign up for carbon border adjustments under the President's emergency authority. Key question is whether the liberal wing can find space between tariffs and carbon border adjustments. https://t.co/TyTuDsECLC
US Supreme Court Ruling Against Trump Tariffs + US Military preparing for an operation in Iran. Well , that's going to be a crazy end to the week. Embrace yourself for volatility.
USTs for now reacting to the loss of tariff revenue, but it remains to be seen how this plays out. Curve steepening https://t.co/ZMjLP2vbxi
This is what happens when export $ recycling slows in a world that is deglobalizing. I.E. When the movement from Capital to Labor shifts, the flow of equity flow moves from digital to real things, from software to hardware, trade...
The US econ grew less than expected in the fourth quarter, weighed down by a record-long govt shutdown, weaker consumer spending, and softer trade. GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q4, down sharply from 4.4% in Q3....
While the U.S. private sector repaired its balance sheet after 2008, the government did not. Gov’t debt to GDP ratio has climbed from 40% in 2007 to almost 110% today. THE U.S. NEEDS A DEBT BRAKE. UNSUSTAINABLE DEBT = FISCAL CRISIS. https://t.co/38NJYDyJgP
Real GDP rose at a 1.4% annual rate in Q4. But the "truth" is better because shutdown-induced real Federal spending cut subtracted 1.15pp. Expect much of that to be added back in Q1. Consumer spending (+2.4%) and business fixed investment (+3.7%)...
US GDP, PCE comes in weaker, why no market reaction? Stocks remain lower. Gold is pushing higher. The dollar remains firm. Problem is - Traders are pricing in risk. With growing fears of a potential conflict over the weekend, positions are being...
A strong finish to the year for core PCE inflation. And not "strong" in a good way. Annual growth rates. 1 month: 4.3% 3 months: 3.1% 6 months: 2.9% 12 months: 3.0%
Thoughts? The World Uncertainty Index has surged to historic levels—exceeding Iraq War, COVID, and 9/11—and identify five stocks positioned to perform well under these geopolitical conditions: Palantir (AI battlefield intelligence), ExxonMobil and Cameco/CCJ (energy security), and NVIDIA (AI defense technology),...
Q4/Q4 core PCE inflation was 2.9% last year (vs. 3.0% in 2024). Trump's statement on the GDP report includes a parenthetical jab at the Fed chair, but there's not much of anything in this report that tells the Fed it...
Did 2025 feel like a wild ride? GDP feels your pain. The quarterly swings were big and short-lived. PDFP, which focuses on consumption and private fixed investment, showed more even, solid gains. https://t.co/LlVwQ7yna5
US GDP: A gauge of underlying domestic demand—real final sales to private domestic purchasers (GDP less inventory change, net exports, and government spending)—grew at a 2.4% annualized rate in Q4 https://t.co/XefZvVp18v
Higher than expected inflation and lower than expected growth. what an ugly day for white house chief economist hassett and Trump narrative. Do not worry, CPI is out next week and that's easier to manipulate.
Remember when Trump was bragging about Q4 GDP growth, quoting a 5.4% rate? That was the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, not the actual. Now we have the actual: 1.4%. Moral: Don't take GDP "trackers" or anyone citing them, remotely seriously....
Q4 GDP prints at 1.4% vs expected 3% - Previously 4.4% December Core PCE at 3.0% vs Expected 2.9% - Previously 2.8% y/y Core PCE 0.4% m/m vs Expected 0.3% - Previously 0.2%
On Aug. 3, 2012, Goldman put out a trade recommendation to go long Euro. The next day was US payrolls, which were stronger than expected. That caused Euro to jump and USD to fall. An example that strong US data...
#CubaWatch🇨🇺: Thanks to Trump's blockade, Cuba's tourism industry has entirely collapsed. Major hotels and airlines have completely shut down. Stay tuned. https://t.co/BF6qoIAgu0
Tariff Decision Day?: The US dollar is trading mostly firmer but quietly in what could be a volatile North American session. It is not just about the US data, of which there is plenty—including the PCE deflator and the first...
The US is outgrowing everyone else and that'll stay that way into this year's midterms. So, for the Dollar to fall, you need a correlation break whereby strong US data cause USD to fall. This is how the Dollar traded...
Beware of the "bull-run narrative" @Matalasdavid Oil's a risk asset unlike value commodities. It's unlikely to have a super-cycle trajectory. 👇 https://t.co/7PUYBWe4PR As economic growth slows, oil will slow. #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket
Very good Rhodium piece on the cost advantage of Chinese EVs: “In practice, countries seeking to protect domestic industries have two broad options. One is to impose very high tariffs that account not only for subsidies but also for structural...
$USD enjoys a firmer tone ahead of US data and possible SCOTUS decision on POTUS use of emergency powers to levy broad tariffs. Mkt tensions over possible US-Iran conflict seems to have eased for the moment but have not...
The Rock May Be Too Hot - Gold vs. Commodities - Inflation is notably absent from gold's parabolic rally, which may suggest a too-hot rock if history is a guide. From a base of 100 in 1964, gold in terms...
UK retail sales begin the year with the fastest growth in 20 months https://t.co/GPGNaZk4Oa via @irinaanghel12 https://t.co/kAm5UcAWvQ
“Ukraine could export several billion dollars of military goods and services this year after authorising its first wartime foreign sales and is considering introducing a tax on those exports, a senior Ukrainian defence official said. Earlier this month, the state commission...
US-China chip trade restarts with tariffs and restrictions creating high-risk supply chain uncertainty for @nvidia and @AMD #ChipWar #AIChips #USChinaTrade #H200 #TSMC #ExportControls #AIOverwatchAct #ChipSupplyChain #Trump #BISRules #GeopoliticalRisk #TechTariffs #Huawei #LLMs
#PakWatch🇵🇰: 125 international companies are ceasing operations in Pakistan. PAK = CORRUPT = 3RD WORLD https://t.co/tmHXxbtj8I
THREAD 🧵I know everyone is very excited about aliens this morning, but I ask you, is it really as exciting as super wonky insights on dollar liquidity plumbing, Federal Reserve balance sheet policy, and stablecoin statecraft? I think not. I...
*TAKAICHI:THERE IS A DEARTH OF DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN JAPAN Takaichi dropping truth bombs. Starts of with the biggest
The impact of the "Busan" deal is now in the trade data -- the US clearly gave up a bit of tariff revenue (lowering the tariff on China) for a bit of supply chain peace, and the prospect of...
The STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS are right for a multi-year bull energy market, says @ericnuttall That doesn't mean it's started or that it will be a straight line back to $90-$100 oil prices. Prices will remain volatile, cyclical, and politically distorted — even...
Forecasters expect PCE inflation (core and headline) was 0.37% in December (4.5% annualized rate). This would push up the core PCE index to 3.0% over 12 months, the highest since February 2025 Headline PCE is estimated at 2.9%, the highest since March...
Just how undervalued is the Chinese yuan -- the IMF (via the Economist) just revised its estimate up to 19% (plus or minus 4%) 1/many https://t.co/IJ4Z1SmGIq
I think the best way to look at the underlying trend in the US trade data is strip out pharmaceuticals and gold (both were heavily influenced by the threat of tariffs, even though none were imposed on either category) 1/ https://t.co/7l20zR7CTr
Will the stock market melt down if the US economy heats up, banishing traders' hopes for Fed rate cuts? All eyes turn to PMI data to find out. #stockmarkets #USD #fed #pmi #economy #interestrates #macro #trading https://t.co/fgEbuQrjnq
Hope the "strategic partnership" is more than allowing German companies to produce in China for the German (and European) market ...
Pres. Trump promised his steep tariffs would narrow the trade deficit and spark a manufacturing revival. New federal data show the U.S. trade deficit widened to –$70.3B in December 2025. So much for Trump's trade spin. https://t.co/NIGIRs4sQt
🚨US market concentration BUBBLE in one chart: The top 10 US stocks make up a record 40% of the S&P 500 market value. At the same time, the weight of the largest stock in the S&P 500 relative to the 75th percentile...
Macro: HSBC trims ~10% of US DCM in broader $1.8bn cost overhaul and pivot to Asia/Middle East. Key factors: management cuts, M&A/ECM pullback. Risk: execution/credit cycles. Trade: favor Asian bank equities. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Best performing stock markets in the world (local currency) year-to-date. 1. S Korea +34.7% 2. Turkey +24.1% 3. Thailand +18.6% In Asia only Indonesia, India negative. Malaysia is up only 4.3%.
Macro: gold up on rate‑cut hopes & geopolitics. Key: Newmont beat as realized $4,216/oz offset 24% output drop. Risk: output erosion, volatility. Trade: buy Newmont on pullbacks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
This is a pretty cool chart to show your investment committee. A classic stock price-to-corporate profits image that reveals extended conditions reminiscent of the turn of the century. If this chart has any prescience, we should remember that the leaders...
Only 91 days and two more rate decisions (Mar 18 and Apr 29) before Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ends (May 15th). Then it is the Warsh era...
Fed independence was a 20th century virtue. Fed inter-dependence is a 21st century necessity. The question was never whether the Fed and Treasury coordinate-it's whether that coordination happens in the dark or in the light The American people deserve monetary transparency...
While I will keep an eye out for grey swans catalyzing (Iran and Supreme Court's decision on tariffs principally), the global macro docket picks up through Friday. Top event risk includes: Japan CPI; February PMIs; Mexico and Canada retail sales; US...
Good piece "For not only has China’s market begun to dry up for Germany, big chunks of German industry now regard China as a direct threat to their interests" Great chart China is a much bigger net exporter (of cars) now than Germany...
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Rally Stalls Near 2023 High – Four-Week Streak at Risk https://t.co/srtBKcRq3k $AUDUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/oGQK6Jc1uV
According to a report from the International Energy Agency, an average AI datacenter consumes as much electricity as 100,000 households. AI = HIGHER ELECTRICITY PRICES = AN AFFORDABILITY PROBLEM. https://t.co/65QNfr2y4U
Copper prices have surged to an average of $13,012/mt in January 2026 from $8,991/mt a year ago. That's a WHOPPING 44% INCREASE. BUY COPPER, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/FIhvIikhjQ
