
Everybody is watching the Strait of Hormuz, but they should also be watching Singapore. The image on the right are all the laden tankers sitting in an around Simgapore. The one in the left, with less ships, are loaded Very Large Crude Carriers. There is usually about 100M barrels of oil at anchor in an around this area daily. This does not include oil that is moving. The disruption from the Persian Gulf is about to hit Singapore as the number of ships coming across the Indian Ocean has been reduced (there are still ships loading from the pipeline at the UAE and the Saudi terminus on the Red Sea. As that pool of ships declines around Singapore (which includes some Dark Fleet ships involved in illegal ship-to-ship transfers) the need to open the Strait of Hormuz increases in importance.

The Financial Times warns that rising oil prices threaten to fuel inflation. WRONG. Oil shocks change RELATIVE prices, but DO NOT cause SUSTAINED inflation. INFLATION IS ALWAYS & EVERYWHERE A MONETARY PHENOMENON. https://t.co/zvENzIWzCy
I, too, believe that shopping traffic through the Strait will begin to pick up again, but “regular” isn’t a word that will apply again so long as the war continues And ships will only do so because prices and economic incentives...
For those who want an overview without watching my full hour+ long video on the Strait of Hormuz Crisis https://t.co/QDALtGFKiC
BAGHDAD, March 8 (Reuters) - Iraqi oil production from its main southern oilfields has fallen by 70% to just 1.3 million barrels per day as the country is unable to export oil via the Strait of Hormuz due to...
Iran may end up being the Pin that pricked the bubble, but the Banking and Financial Sector Stocks are Crashing equity markets as the impact of a slowing economy and the US private credit market takes hold- Hindi Video... https://t.co/sOz3SepGUO via...
This galaxy brain it’s-all-about-China’s-oil talking point drives me *insane* Only reason China was able to buy so much discounted crude from Ven/Irn/Ruz was because of US sanctions, largely imposed by the Trump admin(!), which scared off other buyers and left them...
"Since Liberation Day -- the President's last big, bold set of promises when he told us everything was about to be magical -- we've lost jobs. We've gone backwards... I'm going to call that a jobs recession." https://t.co/GZQfUVRfWG
Bitcoin thrived during an era of easy money, but Wartime Bitcoin will thrive in the era of hard money to come
The US economy has been surprisingly resilient in the face of so much policy chaos. But you have to wonder whether that can continue, if the f***wittery just never stops
Fertilisers are rightfully getting a lot of focus now. China looks to be ok (for now). The state has stockpiles and there is material at ports. Exports of urea (nitrogen-based) were already tightly managed and it's hard to see more...
Nice job Fam getting my old colleague and experienced central banker 5k followers in 3 days. Still massively underfollowed. Fwiw IMHO the U.S. Fed is going to need an explosion of inflation to hike in the next year....
Global leading indicators, February 2026 - Upturn confirmed, will it slip in rising oil prices? https://t.co/bHBBQw0j9O, my latest blog post.

We already know the winner in the war with Iran and that's Russia. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has swung Russian crude from pariah to prized commodity. Urals oil price is the highest since right after the Ukraine...

Friday marked a turning point. Brent rose 9% (CO1), but - instead of a broad sell-off across EM - South Africa (ZAR), Brazil (BRL) and Chile (CLP) rallied. Markets are transitioning to rewarding commodity exporters like in 2022 after the...

PHOTO OF THE DAY: China is still getting (some of) its oil. Nine days into the war, Iran continues loading oil supertankers from Kharg Island. Tehran has sent some of them across the Strait of Hormuz into the high seas wihthout any...
“The US is roughly speaking oil independent… on net, we export petroleum products.” That’s why this is less an ‘America is poorer’ story than an ‘Americans reshuffle who wins’ story. Oil industry wins. Drivers lose. https://t.co/Efd22aQEeK
South Korea is considering to introduce an oil price cap for the first time in 30 years 🇰🇷 🛢️ It is being considered carefully because of possible side effects including market distortions and fiscal burdens, according to Yonhap https://t.co/r66h5y13D6
This is very reminiscent of the “WDC is a zero because of neon gas shortage from Ukraine” episode. The impact of higher oil, or more importantly JKM prices, for Korean equities is a real discussion. This helium stuff is not though.

"Texas Feedlot Operators Explain Why U.S. Beef Supply Depends on Mexican Cattle Imports" https://t.co/D3IHviRfRg https://t.co/fO9Ac9MceR

Looks like the start of a beautiful “oil glut” partnership between the IEA and the Trump administration. Markets may have other ideas. #OilMarkets #EnergyPolicy #IEA #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity https://t.co/IPd77wk6Q7
Claims that the world is “well supplied with oil” during a Hormuz crisis are obviously false @SecScottBessent With 35% of maritime oil flows offline, your comments are at best out-of-touch with reality. At worst, they're lies #OilMarkets #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #IranWar #Geopolitics

China imports crude oil based on the day, between 65 and 85% of its total, and about three-quarters of that comes specifically from the Persian Gulf. And that has now dropped to zero. Unlike countries like the United States, which...
Strike on a Teheran fuel depot is unconfirmed @shanaka86 If true, it's about domestic fuel, not oil exports The target choice matters. It squeezes Iran internally without blowing up global oil markets. #IranWar #oilmarkets #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #Geopolitics
The Strait of Hormuz has seen virtually ZERO movement in the past 24 hours. IRAN CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE KEY CHOKEPOINT IN THE GULF.

CNN reports that Trump's war in Iran is costing the US more than $890 MILLION PER DAY. WAR = MASSIVE COST = FISCAL PROBLEMS. https://t.co/NDO5P1kaiE

Israel’s inflation is 1.8%/yr. Israel’s broad money supply is growing at 8.1%/yr. That's WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range of 7.7%-9.7%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting Israel’s 1%-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/CWltetUlYU

Mexico’s inflation is 3.8%/yr. Mexico’s money supply (M4) is growing at 9.2%/yr. That's WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 7.3%-9.3%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting Mexico’s 2%-4%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/jQ05GUvmPW
I originally published this financial history article in January 2023, but its core point about how markets have a habit of treating geopolitical risk as background noise right up until the moment it’s not seems relevant again. https://t.co/KjyIjzqpnb
PMI shows US manufacturing softness. That means supply chains too. What will the Iraq war do?

Jerome Powell warns the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path, with national debt growing faster than the economy. Investors, learn how this affects the stock market, portfolio risk, and long-term wealth building. Smart value investing can protect your financial...
So the longer the Iran conflict lasts... 1. The longer oil prices are higher 2. The longer the Trump admin allows Russian oil to be sold without sanctions 3. The more financial firepower Russia has to support Iran to prolong the conflict ...rinse and...

Adding to Kuwait's economic misery, it has just been forced to shut down its oil production. Since the Global Financial Crisis, Kuwait's economy has tanked. Turkey's has boomed. And contrary to WESTERN PROPAGANDA, Iran's did not collapse, prior to the US-Israeli...

Following geopolitical shocks, investors have been conditioned to buy the dip. THIS TIME THEY MIGHT BE WRONG. https://t.co/rbiIiiZSzE

To avoid further panic in the oil markets, I anticipate that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be forced to "unsanction" more Russian oil trapped in the sanctioned shadow fleet next week. SANCTIONS CREATE NOTHING BUT TROUBLE. IT'S TIME FOR BESSENT...

Despite what you read daily in the press, the de-dollarization narrative doesn’t have legs. In 2025, overseas investors bought a net $1.55 trillion in long term US financial assets. That’s UP 31.4% since 2024. https://t.co/NUFKLfdh4l
Iran war headlines will be in focus this week but US inflation will also be front and center. Here are the reports to watch 👇 🇺🇸 US -CPI -Personal Income/Spending -UMich Sentiment Index -Durable Goods -Housing Data 🇪🇺 EZ -EZ & GE IP -GE Trade 🇨🇦 CA -Jobs -Trade

In the space of one week, we've gone from everyone saying oil prices would barely move to now everyone falling over themselves predicting $100 oil. Whatever. I don't think that's where the trade is. The trade is in the Dollar,...

In trade-weighted terms, the Yen is lower now than mid-2024 when Japan intervened to prop it up. Japan's high public debt is a terrible weakness. When unexpected shocks come along - like war in Iran - its hands are tied...
STRAIT OF HORMUZ re-opening is central to any effort to prevent another spike in oil prices: https://t.co/hWRuSylzaC
Singapore Airlines has cancelled all flights to and from Singapore-Dubai until 15 March 2026 due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.

Neighbouring countries will no longer be targeted, unless attacks originate from there, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says. What does this mean? — This could be the first sign of de-escalation in the one-week-old war. — Time will tell if Pezeshkian was actually speaking...

MASSIVE: Polymarket traders expect US forces to enter Iran before the end of the year. https://t.co/2rC7Fs38kh
🚨 WEEK 2 OF THE IRAN WAR — MARKET OUTLOOK Trump posted "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" on Truth Social. No ceasefire. No off-ramp. The Strait of Hormuz is shut. Oil just had its biggest weekly gain in futures trading HISTORY (+35%). And the...

Countries that have adopted electric vehicles the most aggressively will suffer the least from oil price spikes. The US, of course, is not one of those. [Corrected graph.] https://t.co/jl1blEELO0
FT: US investors are increasingly asking Asian fund managers to carve out special vehicles so they can invest in the region without falling foul of American investment restrictions on Chinese technology. https://t.co/BxNIMQgnjK

#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The US reverses course. First, the US placed 25% “penalty tariffs” on India for buying Russian crude. Now, the US has granted a 30-day waiver that will allow India to buy Russian oil. MODI’S STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY REIGNS SUPREME. https://t.co/zWsRpg2QtK

New at THE OVERSHOOT: If You Thought the Inflation Outlook Was Bad Before... https://t.co/EpRm2cRwzB The big question is whether the latest "shock", which by my count is at least the 3rd in the past 6 years, is enough to recalibrate beliefs about what's...
Nvidia ties CEO Huang’s $4M bonus to FY2027 revenue milestones. Macro: AI-driven revenue surge. Key factors: record FY26 sales, China export limits, TSMC shift to Vera Rubin. Risk: geopolitical export curbs. Trading insight: accumulate NVDA on meaningful pullbacks. — Viktor...

The $VIX increased 48% this week, the 21st biggest weekly spike ever. What has happened in the past following the biggest $VIX spikes? Stocks have tended to bounce back with above-average forward returns. Does this always happen? No. There are no certainties in markets,...