Columbus' Voyage Sparked Global Wealth Transfer and Price Revolution
𝐅𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐫𝐮𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧: 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 When Christopher Columbus set sail in 1492 under the backing of Queen Isabella I, he wasn’t just opening a new trade route; he was unknowingly setting off one of the most profound economic shifts in history. What followed his arrival in the Americas wasn’t immediate glory, but something powerful over time: a massive transfer of wealth. The Flood of Silver and Gold
China and US Face Back-to-Back Election Sensitivities
"Looking at broader macro-political dynamics, China has effectively started its “campaign season” as Xi eyes a fourth term beginning in 2027, followed by another US presidential election cycle in 2028. These overlapping timelines mean that both countries will, in relatively...
US Extends Russian Oil Waiver Amid Iran War Tensions
That says the Trump administration is ready for a deal with Iran, but is Iran ready? Is Netanyahu ready? US likely to extend Russian oil waiver to temper Iran war shock, sources say https://t.co/jMSFlgcOrq
Governments Subsidize Oil for Bottom 70% Starting 27th
Governments around the world are providing subsidies to help mitigate impact of higher energy prices. Such efforts counter recessionary pressures, but to what extent and for how long? Government Launches High Oil Price Support for Bottom 70% Starting 27th https://t.co/EWO71DrdHN
US Unlocks $6B Iran Funds, Boosts Tehran’s Power
US released $6B in frozen Iran funds It's trading leverage for short-term stability. That may ease pressure now, but it strengthens Iran’s hand over time. "We’re going to make Iran great again." “They’re going to win so much, they’re going to be so sick...
Wall Street Ends Mixed, Still Posts Weekly Gains
JUST IN: Wall Street closed mixed but posted weekly gains as investors analyze Middle East talks.
Central Banks' Gold Reserves Now Surpass US Dollar Holdings
JUST IN: Central banks' gold reserves hit a record $3.87 trillion, topping adjusted US Dollar reserves at $3.73 trillion by $140 billion, as gold assets tripled since 2022 while USD reserves fell $300 billion due to geopolitical tensions.
MacGregor Claims Israel Aims to Turn Dissenting Regions Into Gaza
Col. Douglas MacGregor on Israel's plan for the Middle East: “Israel has a plan to turn most of the region that doesn’t submit to its dominance into Gaza.” https://t.co/VBNw0VQftf
Rising Costs Force Southeast Asian Rice Farmers to Skip Planting
The war in the Middle East hits food staples ⚠️ 🌾 Rice farmers in Southeast Asia are deciding to skip planting for the next season due to rising fuel & fertilizer costs Some Thai farmers are leaving the crop in the ground...
Two‑Month Hormuz Reopening Too Late for Global Economy
Two months: that’s how long it might be before the Strait of Hormuz opens and resumes transit akin to before the war (from National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett). Translation: We F’d up so bad and had zero plans to deal...
Ukraine Ready to Open Strait of Hormuz if Ceasefire Collapses
If the ceasefire fails, Ukraine has a plan to unblock the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/n300ozshow
China’s Low Inflation Reflects Sub‑golden M2 Growth
China’s inflation rate comes in at 1.0%/yr in March, BELOW its 2%/yr target. China’s money supply (M2) is growing at 9.0%/yr, BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 10.0%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
US‑Iran Talks Aim to Boost Hormuz Traffic Soon
Will the US-Iran negotiations starting today be able to secure a material increase in the Strait of Hormuz transits early on? Courtesy FT: https://t.co/SLCKkZ5fdc
Fed Must Explain How Current Inflation Spike Differs From 2022
JUST IN: The Fed has to clarify why this inflation spike differs from the 2022 surge.
Russia Profits as Europe’s Sanctions Hinge on Energy
Europe might sanction Russia, but when push comes to shove, it depends on Russian energy. As I’ve been saying since Day 1 of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Russia is a big winner. https://t.co/boFO4l8cc7
Oil Futures Lag Behind Spot Prices Amid Supply Shock
From The New York Times : “The futures and spot prices are rarely exactly the same, but the gap between them has grown unusually big in the past few weeks, so much so that oil executives and analysts say futures prices...
Iran War Will Boost U.S. Reindustrialization, Outweigh Tariffs
I've said this a few times, but it needs to be reinforced. The Iran war will do far more to balance trade and drive American reindustrialization than the tariffs ever did.
China Halts Jet Fuel Exports, Triggering Global Shortage
Jet fuel supply disruptions continue. China has halted jet fuel exports; Asia is running out of fuel. Major shortages could soon spread to Europe and the US. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MAJOR DAMAGE. https://t.co/1BeaFpUw8i
Without WTO, Regional Blocs Create Economic Imbalances
Without the WTO, the world will revert to regional trading blocs. The issue is that this leaves several regions without balanced economies (you need production and consumption, and only a handful of areas have that). #trade #wto #geopolitics https://t.co/2TTZ38I9KL
WSJ Publishes Our Correction to Greer’s Institution Claim
Happy to see @WSJopinion publish my and @clark_packard's corrective to USTR Greer's recent lament re: the death of an institution the US helped kill: https://t.co/PSNtjzxlnu (🎁) https://t.co/WrWZYci8rl
China’s 41‑Month Deflation Streak Ends, PPI Up 0.5%
China’s deflation streak is FINALLY OVER. Yesterday, after 41 straight months in the red, China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) finally ended -- barely -- at 0.5%/yr. https://t.co/Ysgkv6ogB2
Global Oil Trade Hits Record Amid Saudi Disruptions
🇺🇸US crude oil exports to increase to highest on record 🇮🇳India's Imports from Russia are Near Record High 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia's damaged oil facilities: What is the impact? Daily Energy Report https://t.co/pyGKWXbmpg
Policy Blunders: Self‑Inflicted Economic Shock via Rake
Usually economic shocks are called things like pandemics or oil embargoes. This version is more: bloke walks into the policy room, sees a rake, and steps on it repeatedly. https://t.co/Lzh723GjsJ
Premium Users Get Weekly Macro Review & Preview
Premium Users - Macro Week in Review/Preview April 10, 2026, on the blog and here https://t.co/yuHKVKbbyr
Oil Prices Drop After Iran Ceasefire, Hormuz Still Closed
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices collapsed following the announcement of an Iran War ceasefire, during which attacks have continued, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed; all eyes on weekend negotiations Summary below, full report...
No Written Ceasefire Means No Real Ceasefire
Col. Douglas MacGregor on the so-called ceasefire in Iran: “If it’s not in writing, it means it probably doesn’t exist.” https://t.co/D8xpaCwTbx
China Receives Global Concessions, Offers Little
Am sure Yufan describes the basic view of many in Beijing -- At the same time, the world has already made enormous accommodations to China, and I am not sure China has made much effort to accommodate other creditors that also...
Market Outlook: Impact of Ceasefire Success or Failure
My video looking out over the coming week: Market Outlook Should a Ceasefire Fail or Hold https://t.co/MVQDZY94oJ https://t.co/Ir3CZFs9DE
Iran Pushes Hormuz Fees in Rial as Currency Gains 9%
Iran’s parliament is trying to ensure that Hormuz transit fees will be paid in RIAL. I currently measure that the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% vs. the USD since the beginning of the US-Israeli war on Iran. STAY TUNED. https://t.co/o5Mv9sigwg
IMF Acknowledges Currency Intervention Drives Depreciation, Improves Balance
Joe Gagnon (@GagnonMacro) should take a victory lap; the IMF has conceded intervention does have a real impact -- "A growing empirical literature finds that such intervention can systematically generate real exchange rate depreciation and raise current account balances" 1/
Only Iranian-Linked Vessels Now Using the Strait
While everyone is focused on variations of this chart, the story reposted below might be more important. Essentially, only Iranian-linked ships are passing through the Strait; no one else. https://t.co/SvcJA7aoSC
Inflation Eats Purchasing Power: Money Must Grow
$100 in 2021 now feels like ~$80 today. That’s inflation. Your money didn’t disappear—it just buys less. If your money isn’t growing, it’s losing value.
US Federal Deficit Swells: $1.2 Trillion Shortfall in Six Months
In the first 6 months of the 2026 Fiscal Year the US Federal Government took in $2.5 trillion and spent $3.7 trillion. Don’t try this at home. https://t.co/L0Zec6hR6L
Iran's Hormuz Grip Persists Ahead of US‑Iran Talks
Iran’s Chokehold On Hormuz Remains On The Eve Of Peace Talks In Pakistan The list of contested issues that the U.S. and Iran will have to come to some form of agreement on is long and complex. Updating live: https://t.co/NsmIfTZKJg
Strait Delays Threaten US Supply Chains, Global Crisis
White House/Trump. Opening the Strait will not happensoon. Delays with the Strait mean the impact will start to hit the US. And make global situation worse. What then? Will supply chains find a tenth circle of hell?
US Fatigued, Iran Holds Leverage—Ceasefire Likely
Most frequently asked question on this morning's livestream: is a ceasefire even possible? Two things are clear: (i) the US has had enough; (ii) Iran has leverage. How that gets dressed up in face-saving language is what talks are about,...
Expect a Chaotic Market: Spikes, Shortages, and Volatile Bonds
Markets are going to be funky. SoH closure into an oil price spike and physical shortage. COVID showed us anything is on the table and that governments never let a good crisis go to waste. With sovereign bond yields about...
Hormuz Closure Threatens Global Supply Chain Collapse
We said if Hormuz stayed close until mid-April, global supply chains were mathematically certain to begin collapsing, including in the US. Right on cue, on April 10👇 Things will rapidly get much worse from here if Hormuz stays closed “What’s the trade?” =...
Core Goods Inflation Expected to Remain Benignly Low
so then you all must expect core goods inflation to be on a really benign path lower
China Subsidizes Auto Sector to Crush Foreign Competition
China's government has been providing incentives for Chinese manufacturers and suppliers to sharply undercut foreign auto manufacturers at home and abroad. This has been the goal of the CCP - rule the auto supply chain sector and wipe all global...
War's Fallout Harms Global Economy, Boosts Russia
My view with @LenaPetrovaOnX on the outcome of the US-Israeli war on Iran: “The outcome of the war is unambiguously bad for the world economy… except for Russia and China, with Russia being a big winner.” https://t.co/5Rj36XtJ4O
Switzerland Targets US Tariff Deal by July End
Switzerland aims to finalize US tariff accord by the end of July https://t.co/ZYi5vpcuIn via @bbenrath @fabiennekatrin https://t.co/b6wPOAMUsC
Inflation Outlook and Fed Path Discussed on CNBC
Coming up on CNBC with Kelly Evans & Steve Liesman to talk inflation and the road forward with the Federal Reserve.
Iran's Straight Flush: Dominating the Hormuz Strait
"Iran has no cards"...except for the straight flush it happens to be holding with control of Hormuz
US‑Iran Talks Stall, Markets Slide Across Board
Based on this, US-Iran talks aren't going well 👎 Markets telling same story with stocks lower, gold lower, US dollar strengthens, oil rebounds https://t.co/ZmGKsaR6y5
War Alone Doesn't Explain 74‑Year Low Consumer Confidence
The University of Michigan has been conducting a consumer confidence survey for 74 years (starting in 1952). The lowest reading in this history is the number out today for April 2026 at 47.6. The commentary from the University of Michigan attributes...
Supply Chain Disruptions Are Permanent, Not Temporary
"Once it's over, things don't go back to normal." The LNG facility in Qatar alone will take 3 to 5 years to rebuild Fertilizer, helium, chip supply chains are all disrupted The strait is a chokehold with no alternative route. This isn't transitory. 🎙️...
Iran War Far From Biggest Supply Chain Disruption
The Iran war is "the mother of all supply chain disruptions," says @DanielYergin https://t.co/ShD5cIrrGe by @EmilyRPeck in @axios In fact, it's not even close ⬇️ https://t.co/XhpGtrbJzC
Consumption Near Negative Territory Despite Positive PCE
It was the combination of GDP revisions (PCE to 1.9%) & real personal consumption in Jan & Feb running at 0.6% rate. We are a rounding error away from inflation-adjusted consumption turning negative in an economy that runs on consumption....
U.S. Holds 877 Overseas Bases, Outpacing Top Five Combined
The US has an ASTOUNDING 877 foreign military bases. The next 5 countries combined are NOWHERE NEAR AS CLOSE. They only have a combined total of ~313. https://t.co/ME9OlSbtKz