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Every morning
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France says G-7 is not there yet on releasing oil stockpiles https://t.co/aduCab1b7z via @WHorobin @Alemrome https://t.co/YIIOlUuvMQ
1/5 A 10% increase in energy prices that persists for a year would push global inflation up by 40 basis points and slow economic growth by 0.1-0.2%, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. So, what price measures "persists for a...
China’s inflation rate comes in at 1.3%/yr in February, BELOW its 2% target. China’s money supply (M2) is growing at 9.0%/yr, BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 10.0%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
Today, on the invitation of Minister Roland Lescure of France, which holds the G7 Presidency, I took part in a meeting of G7 Finance Ministers on the global economic situation and Middle East conflict. My statement on the meeting: https://t.co/NnpeYX73nn...
People recoil at the idea of using the SPR just to damp prices. But now that the US has plenty of domestic oil, what other purposes would it serve? What other conditions would be an appropriate time to use it?
LONDON, March 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices surged to more than $119 a barrel on Monday, hitting levels not seen since mid-2022, as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruption gripped the market due to the...
LONDON/SINGAPORE, March 9 (Reuters) - Bonds across the globe sank on Monday as a rapidly worsening U.S.-Israeli war with Iran briefly pushed oil prices near $120, heightening investor fears over inflation which they bet may prompt European central banks to...
LONDON, March 9 - Iran's oil exports would stall and output halve if the U.S. and Israel were to seize its port on Kharg Island, triggering further attacks from Tehran on regional oil infrastructure, JP Morgan said in a note.
G7 countries looking at releasing oil reserves. Maybe 400 million barrels. How much impact will this have? What if the Iran war continues, and reserves are drawn down?
Market expectations of a June rate cut from the Fed have fallen to around 40%, close to their lowest levels in months following the run-up in oil prices, according to CME Group https://t.co/1DRbhts0Fk
Thank you, Andrew, Becky, and Joe for the conversation on Squawk Box this morning. FYI, here is one of the clips... https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/09/the-global-economy-is-subject-to-more-violent-and-frequent-shocks-says-mohamed-el-erian.html ... and here is the full interview: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/09/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-allianz-chief-economic-advisor-mohamed-el-erian.html #economy #markets @cnbc #oil #middleeastwar
Energy shock rewrites the ECB’s rate path as traders bet on hikes https://t.co/PhHe7FAJb5 via @highisland @greg_ritchie https://t.co/FvJg4WW5Ei
EU Buys 100% of Russian Arctic LNG Just 9 Months Before Planned Gas Ban. And the Iran war impact? https://t.co/235AGjQMDs
1Y zero coupon inflation swaps have jumped (obvi) as oil prices surged Much more surprising to me is that 1Y1Y inflation swaps have risen That is, this isn’t a “price spike = recession” move All this while the super-backwardation in crude doesn’t...
How the Iran War Could Consolidate China’s Energy Dominance - Amid global oil and gas disruptions, China stands prepared for the electrostate era. https://t.co/XjVHuN91u9
fun fact: at $90/barrel, the impact of the war is equivalent to a ~$50/ton carbon tax, right where the biden administration estimated the social cost of carbon
10y UST yield (blue, RS1) USDJPY * oil (red, LS) USDCNY * oil (green, RS2) Since Japan lifted YCC on 10y JGBs 👇 "Iran doesn't have to beat the US military; it just has to beat the UST market" -Title of 3/3/26...
Lower energy prices were keeping US inflation rates from rising. But that tailwind will turn into a headwind in March with prices spiking on a YoY basis. We could easily see CPI rise above 3% if Crude Oil stays above...
The Bank Trump Is Relying On for Rare-Earth Minerals Impact so far on dependence on China? Zero.... https://t.co/Ux4lLRcEqv via @NYTimes
Chinese WSJ: Severe energy crisis with limited shipping thru the Strait of Hormuz. What kind of crisis will it bring to global logistics and supply chains? Fuel for transporting goods for manufacturing and retail. Businesses and consumers.
Compared to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion, this Iran war has produced 2x the move in oil, but only 1/2 the move in DXY. This is exactly what I'm talking about playing out - the dollar is structurally challenged. https://t.co/H1VIqKNbr7
The Dollar (blue) and rate differentials (black) are massively diverging. When the Strait of Hormuz reopens - even if only a little bit - we'll see a very large drop in the Dollar. We're still very much in a regime...
Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, became the third leader in the history of the Islamic Republic. The Venn diagram of what is acceptable to Israel and the United States, and what Khamenei can credibly offer, has no overlap...
"Tariffs may have affected manufacturing employment, which declined by 119,000 in 2025. Likewise, the trade sensitive transportation and warehousing sector declined by 123,800." https://t.co/ed9bs6nNSn
$WTI above $100. $VIX above 33. Nikkei down 5.4%. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Zero tankers transiting. This isn't a supply disruption. It's a supply deletion. And the SPR is at 40-year lows. https://t.co/WaTisWuS4y
Iran's oil production is down 70%, according to reports. When the fifth largest oil producing country in the world (at 5 million barrels a day) drops like this, we now know what the underlying asset price will do. https://t.co/jRLuiAK0xM
Western economies cannot afford stagflation, particularly with current deficits. Before the "war" started. The Calligulino administration is composed of dimwits incapable of grasping the consequences of their actions. https://t.co/dtGLn9cwTw
The Strait of Hormuz is closed. It's not going to get more closed than it already is. All the risk is now on the other side, i.e. when and to what extent it opens. You can bet Trump is very...
Macro: USD & yields up; oil spike lifts risk‑off. Key: $5000 sup, $5150–$5200 res. Risks: Middle East safe‑haven vs dollar strength. Trade: Buy on decisive close >$5200. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Recent employment trends combined with the oil price spike suggest recession risk is rising, and this was not on the market's bingo card this year... Though February job losses were skewed by one-time effects, the weakness is nonetheless part of...
My debut in @TheFP - This Is How an Energy Crisis Starts - by Ellen R. Wald https://t.co/8Isvg3TkzQ @ACGlobalEnergy #oil #iran #oott
Commodity Price Pumps and Iran vs. Russia's Ukraine Invasion - The US exports about 25% of its grain production, and prices have been declining on the back of the 2022 spikes, which incentivized more supply -- notably from Brazil. Russia's...
A 33 km waterway which is 3000 km away from you can decide how much you must pay for petrol, cylinder etc. A 33 km waterway between Iran–Oman called the Strait of Hormuz. 20% of global crude oil passes through this route,...
The war in Iran is scrambling the economic outlook for the Federal Reserve — again. https://t.co/TGmVeLOISN
put it this way, if this situation last long enough for central banks to hike, they'll end up hiking into a recession
I don't think you have to Nostradamus to figure that bombing Iran might raise oil prices. And it seems pretty obvious that buying oil in advance of causing an oil price spike might just save Americans a lot of...
"Historical risk-off moves after an oil shock have generally required at least one of: Large and sustained oil price spike...Hawkish policy response...Broader macro damage:" Deutsche Bank. We're "closer than a week ago, but on several metrics we aren’t quite there...
On central banks: Judging from the shift in market probabilities of interest rate actions, the markets now believe that single-mandate central banks (that is, price stability), such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, are in no mood...
I’ll be coming up on @BloombergTV in a few to discuss zooming #oil prices with @lisaabramowicz1 & @FerroTV Can anything be done to bring oil under $100 in the foreseeable future? @ACGlobalEnergy #oott #Iran https://t.co/hJJBdEoPvU
Italy risks Iran setback in a bid to exit EU scrutiny, Scope says https://t.co/fGVWOIJe8n via @CraigStirling https://t.co/7T2WI2wmif
Capital Markets Remain Unsettled with Oil Above $100: The Middle East war continues to dominate the investment environment. The dollar is firm. Equities are lower. Yields are higher. The disruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz is forcing oil…...
The Gulf countries are just as strong as the USA because it is the US that agreed to DEFEND them…. So, all of them combined just fall under the US…. Iran is already fighting their protector, so it can literally...
One of my higher conviction views: the US is now a net energy exporter (LNG more than oil) but it is best understood as an oil importer that is uniquely sensitive to oil price swings. 1/
One year ago the Trump-Tariffs put a tax on all Americans. This year it's the Trump-Iran War adding to that tax. (his observation 👇) https://t.co/nF3KxY5qpw
*SAUDI ARABIA STARTS OIL OUTPUT CUTS AS STORAGE FILLS UP We do not have a lack of supply of oil. We have a lack of supply of shipping
There is a lot of chat about whether this will be "as bad" as 2022. From inflationary pov, unlikely. And CBs shouldn't be too worried about wage-price spirals, despite the endless overshoot. But my worry is that it tips labour...
Reports G7 will discuss coordinated release of strategic reserves is helping to stem the worst of the markets' reaction to the weekend developments. Still, USD is mostly firmer, rates higher, and equities lower. See https://t.co/4OVnPnHNHB https://t.co/PN5lizMKsV
Bank of England hit by 5% inflation risk from the war in Iran https://t.co/MPiOtzZc9t via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/PH66hDSVno
Central banks have overshot their inflation targets for FIVE YEARS. This war threatens to make that six. If you think they are just gonna cut rates anyway, I dunno what to tell you. Minimum - rate cuts are postponed.
an old debate. Oil-price spikes have a nasty habit of marking the end of the cycle. But is that because of the income-squeeze, or the Fed's response? Or both? https://t.co/IE8tGIRy68
