Geopolitics Revolves Around Monopoly Power at Global Choke Points
A couple of observations about Trump’s blockade threat. Whether Iran and Trump threatening the Strait of Hormuz, power flows through choke points, aka monopolies. Same with China and rare earths, and the U.S. and the dollar. A lot of geopolitics is about monopoly power.
Mearsheimer Warns Iran Attack Will Eclipse Iraq War
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on Pres. Trump and Netanyahu's WAR OF CHOICE in Iran: “The decision to attack Iran will be seen as worse than Iraq in 2003.” https://t.co/1NB8fuoO2S
Hormuz Blockade Threatens US Humiliation and Warship Losses
Attempting a Hormuz blockade will be a humiliating defeat for the US Iranian drones and anti-ship ballistic missiles will potentially damage or destroy US warships #StraitOfHormuz #OilMarkets #EnergySecurity #NavalWarfare #Geopolitics #MiddleEast #GlobalRisk #EnergyCrisis #ShippingLanes #MilitaryStrategy
Blocking Toll‑Paid Ships Could Pressure Iran, Yet Payer Unclear
Technically, blockading ships that have paid the toll to Iran/IRGC IS the correct way to force Tehran to the negotiating table. But how is such a threat implemented? It is unlikely that shipping companies are paying that toll (the importer...
IMF Warns US‑Israeli War on Iran Will Devastate Economy
International Monetary Fund Chief Kristalina Georgieva signals that the US-Israeli war on Iran will result in MASSIVE economic damage. I agree. https://t.co/UHcivMPbGt
Hormuz Strait: Global Trade Can't Be Held Hostage
I know Dr. Vivian Balakrishnan, FM of Singapore. He is a brilliant man. Listen to what he says. Strait of Hormuz cannot be held hostage by Iran. ALL global trade depends on it.
China to Restore Limited Ties with Taiwan After Opposition Visit
China says it will resume some ties with Taiwan after visit by opposition leader - POLITICO https://t.co/vCYJCuJUps
Core Inflation Surge Signals Fed Rate Cuts, Bond Yields Rise
First, "core" accelerated. Second, he's making a case for the Fed lowering rates. Third, and most importantly, its y/y headline Inflation that drives long-term Bond Yields and he also knows that if the Hedgeye Inflation Nowcast is correct that we'll...
US Oil Export Shift Requires Double Tanker Fleet, Years
Yes, it appears supertankers are heading to the US to get oil. The US exports 5 million barrels a day. So, the US has it. BUT.... The majority of Middle Eastern crude oil goes to Asia. That is a 21-day trip from the...
US Delegation's Amateurism Undermines Rapid Peace Efforts
As I predicted, the peace talks in Islamabad failed. The US delegation of JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner were amateurs. There's no way those amateurs could unwind a war in 24 hours. It took the diplomatic maestro Kissinger 4 years to wind...
US Oil Imports Make Gulf Blockade Self‑inflicted Disaster
The US is a net importer of oil, and expanding exports + blockading the Persian Gulf is hilariously catastrophic for the US consumer.
Trump's Policies Drive S&P to Historic Lows
Trump is not Making America Great Again. During the first 446 days, the S&P stock index has performed more poorly than the last 5 administrations. TRUMP'S TARIFFS + TRUMP'S WARS = MAKE AMERICA POOR AGAIN. https://t.co/YJKwRKjVhs
Rapid Oil Surge Signals Deflation, Not Inflation
The most critical thing to watch this week is if long duration yields fall into the Oil surge. We are on the verge of a massive deflation scare. You read that right. The SPEED of the oil move is DEFLATIONARY. The market has this...
Turkey's Economy Fueled by Dwindling Gold Reserves
Turkey appears to be living off its gold reserves. Find out more in the Chartbook Top Link of today. https://t.co/E1jmvOnLzt
Poland and Baltics Poised to Outpace Italy, Spain
"For all of the intellectual dressing, Hungary has ended up looking more like Vladimir Putin’s mafia state, while Poland and the Baltic states, which adopted more classic market solutions, are on course to be richer than Spain and Italy." https://t.co/5aciS10VYB
Hormuz Closure Could Cut Gulf Output by 15 MMbpd
Current Middle East Gulf production shut-ins stand at ~13 MMbpd (out of a ~105 MMbpd market) If Trump blockades the Strait and forces Iran to shut in production that total rises to ~15 MMbpd. It’s been strange to see Iran continue to...
Trump Blocks Hormuz, Spurring Volatility and Fed Printing
Trump closes down the Strait of Hormuz and blocks any traffic, through which the ceasefire is already fragile. Volatility remains high and it's clear that there won't be a path forward where risk-on assets will do well if this continues...
Quick Summary of Today’s Strait of Hormuz Events
This morning’s Strait of Hormuz developments, summarized so you don’t need to read the president’s rambling morning long-posts: https://t.co/KWcJKMp2QV
Light Data Week Ahead, Keep an Eye on Iran
This week looks like a lighter data week which watch Iran 🇺🇸 US -PPI -Beige Book -Empire State -Philly Fed 🇪🇺 EZ -EZ IP -EZ CPI Revisions 🇬🇧 GB GDP & IP 🇦🇺 AU -Jobs report -Inflation Expectations 🇳🇿 NZ PMI Composite & Services 🇨🇳 CN GDP, IP & Retail Sales
Trump Announces US Blockade of Hormuz Shipping
*TRUMP SAYS US WILL BEGIN BLOCKADE OF SHIPS TO AND FROM HORMUZ The shipping tourists can stop counting ships. It is now zero. https://t.co/1AQGj4UeEF
US Navy to Block All Strait of Hormuz Traffic
“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz” (No LNG cargo has left the Persian Gulf in over a...
US‑India Deal Set to Boost Energy, Metals, Tech Trade
The US-India trade deal could expand energy, metals, aircraft, and technology trade while reducing tariff pressure. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/us-india-trade-deal-could-reshape.html
ADNOC Warns World Cannot Afford Hormuz Closure
Adnoc CEO: “The Strait of Hormuz has never been Iran’s to close or restrict… The world simply cannot afford it and must not allow it” (Adnoc hasn’t been able to export LNG for over a month to customers in Asia and...
Saudi Arabia Profits From Oil Surge, Resists Swift Peace
The biggest winner in this war may be Saudi Arabia, which is likely seeing its annual export revenues from oil rise substantially even with lower volumes thanks to the spike in prices. The Saudis have very little incentive to push...
Brent at $95, but US Embargo Could Push $125
My base case is for many weeks of messy negotiations with Iran, but that war has basically ended. That's what I think is priced into Brent at $95. If negotiations fail and the US does an embargo of Iranian oil,...
Turkey Alone Cuts Central Bank Gold; Others Remain Flat
There's endless chatter central banks are selling gold. For the 3 central banks for which we have weekly data (India, Thailand, Turkey), only Turkey has seen gold holdings fall lots (-$20 bn). Gold holdings are flat for the other two....
Turkey Sells $20bn Gold as Lira Faces Depreciation Risk
If negotiations with Iran fail, Turkey will be immediately back in the firing line of global markets. It sold and swapped 128 tons of gold to bolster its FX reserves by around $20 bn in recent weeks, a sign of...
Real Set to Surge Amid US‑Iran Tension
What the Brazilian Real needs to outperform is for Iran and the US to talk, taking catastrophic escalation off the table, but for negotiations to be difficult, which keeps oil prices high. That's exactly where we are and is the...
Failed Iran Talks Leave Markets Unfazed, Hinting Future Stagnation
Vance flew home from Islamabad with nothing. 21 hours of talks, zero deal. Iran refused to give up nukes. BTC dropped 2% to $71,460. That's it. The market yawned at what was supposed to be the most important diplomatic event...
March 2026 Leading Indicators Reveal Emerging Economic Weakness
My latest blog post -> Global Leading Indicators, March 2026 - A Chink in the Armour https://t.co/ZGzleYt87c
Economic Crisis Looms as Rivals Advance Unchecked
Prepare for the economic shitstorm Negotiations won’t solve this More fighting won’t solve this Export the problem to the rest of the world Meanwhile, China & Russia face fewer distractions & continue advancing their agendas, writes @_HenryBolton
Trump Declares Victory Despite Failed US‑Iran Talks
US-Iran Talks End in Failure What a joke to imagine a deal could be done in 1 day “Whether we make a deal or not makes no difference to me,” Trump said. “And the reason is because we’ve won.” https://t.co/zMb3ZWwssw
Iran Keeps Hormuz Closed Without U.S. Peace Deal
🚨 UPDATE Iran has refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as a permanent peace agreement was not put in place during negotiations with the U.S. in Pakistan. https://t.co/Xvstuje8G0
German Growth Outlook Slides to Sub‑1% This Year
Good Morning from Germany, where consensus growth forecasts, which had been remarkably slow to change, are now starting to drift lower. Growth of just 0.8% is now expected for this year, and 1.4% for 2027. Bank of America is the...
Iran's SoH Blockade Remains Tehran's Ultimate Bargaining Chip
Point No. 1 was entirely to be expected. SoH blockade and the economic pain it is inflecting is Tehran’s biggest leverage. It will hold on to it till the very end. Why would the US think it would surrender it this early?...
Pakistan Receives Fifth $5B Bailout, Repeats Dependency Cycle
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Saudi Arabia and Qatar just announced another $5B bailout package for Pakistan. This is the 5th major bailout since 1998. Pakistan passes the begging bowl again. Why wouldn’t it? It seems to work. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/JEXSVNuiU1
Rising Fuel, Fertilizer Costs Threaten Crops and Prices
A farmer in Western Australia was playing sports with colleagues when news of the Iran war broke. Minutes later they were on their phones, scrambling to secure fuel. Read how surging fuel and fertilizer costs are forcing tough crop decisions and...
Finance Leaders Return to IMF Amid Familiar Challenges
The world finance chiefs are heading to the IMF with a sense of déjà vu https://t.co/sanhUAHEym via @jrandow https://t.co/R4cHIAwK89
Chinese City Land Sales Plunge 46% Year‑on‑year
Yicai: "300 cities auctioned 64.72 million square meters of land in the three months ended March 31, a 24 percent drop from a year ago. By value, sales plunged 46 percent to CNY215.4 billion. By floor area, they shrank 26...
China Railway Boosts Q1 Investment 5% to Spur Growth
Xinhua: "In the first three months of 2026, China State Railway completed 137.9 billion yuan in fixed-asset investment, a year-on-year increase of 5.1 percent. The company will implement the key railway construction tasks specified in the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030),...
US‑Iran Stalemate Underscores Urgent Shift to Renewables
Shocked. No agreement has been struck between the US and Iran, Strait of Hormuz is still closed, and as hypothesized, this pause is in this war is almost certainly a reloading for the U.S. The world better rapidly build renewables...
Israel's Inflation Hits Target, Money Supply On‑Track
Israel’s inflation is 2.0%/yr. That's w/i Israel’s 1%-3%/yr target. Israel’s broad money supply is growing at 8.08%/yr. That's WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 7.7%-9.7%/yr, a rate consistent w/ Israel’s 1%-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/lQDMrCEK46
Iran Halts New Talks with US Amid Ongoing Deadlock
JUST IN: Iran is skipping fresh negotiations with the US due to the ongoing deadlock.
US‑Iran Talks Stall; European Gas Market Goes 21‑hour
The US and Iran fail to reach a deal after marathon talks in Pakistan ⚠️ 👀 All eyes will be on the European gas market, which for the first time will open early in Asia on Monday (in 19 hours) TTF...
India Tackles Fuel Shortage with Export Tax, Not Ban
🇮🇳Several countries, including China, banned exports of petroleum products. India is doing the same using a different approach. India Raises Export Tax on Diesel, Jet Fuel Amid Energy Crisis
Hanke Warns Fed May Fail to Curb 3.3% Inflation
Ron Patel's @StartupFortune reports my view on the current jump in US inflation to 3.0%/yr: "[Hanke warns] that the Federal Reserve would struggle to contain inflation, noting that the three-month annualized CPI back in February was already running at precisely 3.3%." https://t.co/ACIi3dYTNk
Oil Surge Triggers BOJ Hikes, Gold Targets New Highs
Domino Theory fourth iteration published on YouTube. Oil spike catalyst forces Bank of Japan rate hikes. Gold/silver retest previous all-time highs before continuing. Gold-oil peg ratio stabilizes currencies. Supply shock required for three-four digits.
Brent Futures Lag Physical Oil, Gap Set to Close
The futures price for Brent crude is around $109/bbl. But physical oil is trading closer to $145/bbl. THAT'S AN UNSUALLY LARGE PRICE GAP. THE FUTURES MARKET WILL EVENTUALLY BE MUGGED BY REALITY, AND THE GAP WILL BE CLOSED. https://t.co/XVXx6bRg9Z
Trump’s Misstep Fuels $2M Tolls in Hormuz
Trump's war of choice left the Iranian leadership intact, but now with an actual toll booth in the Strait of Hormuz where they charge up to $2M per supertanker. This is such an epic f*ck up by Trump. What a...
Energy Market Volatility Drives Vitol’s Costly Derivatives Losses
My working hypothesis is that the extreme volatility in the energy markets has largely led to losses. No one can make money when prices are soaring and collapse by $20 in a few days. --- https://t.co/S30XPZwVcq Vitol Group is reorganizing its derivatives team in...