US Deficit and China’s Stalled Consumption Fuel Imbalances
If not the dollar, what are the main major drivers of current account imbalances today? - Unsustainable US federal budget outlook - China's failure to shift its economy further toward a non-deflationary, consumption-driven growth model by Maury Obstfeld https://t.co/jaLG9xmKuP
Europe’s Wealth Misunderstood: Methodology Skews US‑EU GDP Debate
We're probably well-past the point of diminishing returns of this debate on social media. There's just a host of methodological issues and choices that change the answer: 1. Europe v. EU v. Eurozone v. Western Europe (and by extension: what's the...
Money Equals Debt; Currency Valuation Drives Economic Reality
Money is debt, and debt is money. It confuses a lot of people when I say that, but the mechanics are fairly straightforward. A debt instrument is just a promise to deliver money in the future. What that money is worth...
US Deficit Not Caused by Dollar, Says Obstfeld
Don't blame America's current account deficit on the dollar Hugely important NEW essay by Maury Obstfeld @PIIE ahead of this week's G7/G20 global imbalances focus. https://t.co/sWxu77W2qk
New Analysis Refutes AmeriCompass Tariff Claims
My colleague @ericadyork and I have a new piece out responding to many claims @AmerCompass makes about tariffs. https://t.co/VmntNSkuni
Call for Constitutional Convention to Insert Debt Reset
The USA is engaged in fiscal foolishness. It’s time to call a Constitutional Convention and insert a debt break into the US Constitution
US Blockade Heightens Energy and Fertilizer Market Risks
U.S. Blockade Escalates Risks for Energy & Fertilizer, with implications for the commodity markets. #oatt #oott https://t.co/aGAVP1GhAe
US March Home Sales Drop 3.6%, Exceed Forecast
The @wsj on the US housing market: "Home sales declined 3.6% in March, getting the crucial spring selling season off to a poor start as the high cost of housing and economic uncertainty held buyers back.... The 3.6% month over month decline...
U.S. Blockade Hits Hormuz; China, Russia May Intervene
All Eyes on Hormuz as U.S. Maritime Blockade on Iran Enters Enforcement Phase. What happens when Chinese and Russian ships show up? https://t.co/orWD3pBD3c
Turkey's Currency Intervention Masks Pre‑Existing Current‑Account Deficit
Turkey obviously intervened heavily to limit depreciation pressure (and an inflationary shock) in March (and I guess bought a bit of fx back last week). But Turkey's real problem is that its current account deficit was widening even before the oil...
Risk Assets Hold Steady After Iran Ceasefire, Not Collapse
Risk assets are not as put out by the collapse of US-Iran peace talks as they were heartened by the announced ceasefire. Wonder how long this lasts... Markets: SPX, EEM, HYG, Gold and Bitcoin https://t.co/FwSi3lcMY7
EU Fossil Fuel Costs Soar €22 Billion Amid Conflict
Since the start of the Middle East conflict, the EU’s bill for fossil fuel imports has increased by over **€22 billion**, said Ursula von der Leyen 💰💰💰 https://t.co/driqaI4fOe
Hormuz Blockage Fuels Fertilizer Crisis; Policy Aid Needed
Ships still aren’t moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Fertilizer delays are forcing farmers to pay more or cut use. They need timebound, targeted help. With right policy and diplomacy, nations can still avert a global food crisis. Watch our...
Inflation Expectations Become a Self‑fulfilling Macroeconomics Feedback Loop
Inflation expectations are the group chat of macroeconomics: once everyone thinks prices are going up, everyone starts acting like prices are going up, and then... surprise... prices go up. https://t.co/eXVIDDjJ4V
US GDP per Capita Inflated by Healthcare Accounting Differences
On the face of it, US GDP per capita is higher than Europe‘s. However keep in mind 🔑 differences An example: US healthcare is incorporated into numbers via market values. European healthcare numbers are on cost of production. US spending...
Russia Urges BRICS Food Reserves to Offset Middle East Crisis
Russia calls for joint food reserves with BRICS to counter Middle East crisis risks https://t.co/g3JsxUHPEN
Hormuz Crisis Triggers Localized, Bumpy Demand Destruction
Normally I talk about the two main types of demand destruction: Price elasticity (i.e., gasoline is really expensive so I'll drive less or buy an EV) vs Income elasticity (high oil prompted a financial crisis and I lost my job) But given how...
Lower Rates Could Reverse Expected Home Price Decline
My forecast of negative -0.62% national home price growth is at risk if rates go lower
Oil Demand Collapse in SW & SE Asia Underestimated
We are probably underestimating the amount of oil demand destruction already ongoing in South-West and South-East Asia.
U.S. Sabotages Green Tech, China Set to Dominate
The US is turning it's back on green technology while creating the market for it. This combination is next level sabotage. If the point is to take us out of the next economy, it's working. China’s Electrostate Is Poised to Win...
US‑Australia Invest $
Australia and US boost support for critical minerals with $3.5 billion Not clear where processing will be done, or where mine to magnet chain happens.... https://t.co/OpCtNNHYup
US Failed to Block Iran Oil After First Attack
It actually makes perfect sense. What makes no sense is why the US allowed Iran to continue to sell oil in contravention of sanctions throughout this war. This embargo/blockade should have been in place as soon as Iran fired on...
Iran Faces Imminent Well Shutdowns, Negotiations Uncertain
Looking at the limited empty oil tankers inside the Persian Gulf, plus Tehran’s onshore storage, Iran will need to shut in wells in 10-15 days (the same process its neighbours faced 5-6 weeks ago). Would that prompt Iran to change...
ECB Remains Noncommittal on Stablecoins Boosting Bond Demand
In today’s Daily Peg (my stablecoin dedicated newsletter) the ECB offers non committal perspectives about whether or not stablecoins create net new demand for sovereign bonds. https://t.co/41t2azueoh
OPEC Projects 2026‑27 Production Growth in Key Nations
🔹OPEC's view of production growth in selected countries in 2026 and 2027. 🔹What do you think? What do you agree with and what you do not? Why? https://t.co/QAin921hCr https://t.co/WK2gAcAKWe
Australia Faces Diesel Shortage After Hormuz Crisis
Australia is uniquely vulnerable to disruptions in diesel supply,leading to a real diesel Armada heading there in the wake of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Chartbook Top Links of the day just dropped: https://t.co/phVWZTM4Em
Middle East Tensions Trump Economic Data, Fueling Oil Surge
🚨 Markets on edge as US–Iran tensions escalate and risk of a Strait of Hormuz blockade sends oil higher and stocks lower. Here’s my take on it all: Middle East headlines now matter more than economic data. Higher gas prices could...
China Demands Free Strait Navigation Despite Allied Blockade
China wants “unobstructed navigation” thru the Strait. There are two parties blocking Hormuz. China is an ally of one of them.
2026 Oil Demand Rises 1.4 Mb/D
"In 2026, global oil demand is forecast to grow by a healthy 1.4 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), driven almost entirely by demand from non-OECD regions, mainly China, India and Other Asia. On a quarterly basis, the global oil demand in 2026...
China, Iran Weaponize Economy, Outmaneuver U.S. Sanctions
China, Iran weaponized the global economy to beat the U.S. at its own game US...expanded export controls to cover an estimated 20,000 Chinese companies, and tightened controls over advanced chipmaking equipment and jet engines to China. Yes, that is economic coercion. https://t.co/Kd7ckEDhaE
Goldman: Oil Price Drag Neutralizes 2025 Fiscal Boost
GOLDMAN: “.. we now expect the drag on growth from higher oil prices to roughly offset the boost to growth from the 2025 fiscal bill.” #OBBBA https://t.co/tjt1bVV0cv
Saudi Crude Shipments to China to Halve Amid War
Saudi Arabia’s crude sales to top importer China are set to halve next month as the war in the Middle East upends flows and lifts prices, according to traders familiar with the matter https://t.co/P8mgp5is3N
Trump Announces Hormuz Blockade, Oil Jumps 7%
Trump says the US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz begins at 10AM ET Oil already up 7% and we haven't even started. I'm watching response from China 🇨🇳 How much pain are you pricing in for stocks today? 👇 $CL $USO...
Gold Fails as Inflation Hedge When Most Needed
Gold is widely regarded as the ultimate inflation hedge. But how reliable is it? As 126 years of data and a live geopolitical crisis both show, the gold inflation hedge fails precisely when investors need it most. My latest for #TEBI...
Key Issues to Watch at IMF‑World Bank Summit
5 things to watch at the IMF-World Bank meetings this week https://t.co/8BcEucTx0N via @CecileDaurat https://t.co/UDyXcKlsEk
Trump’s Hormuz Gamble Fuels Inflation, yet Demands Rate Cuts
Trump is trying to block the Strait of Hormuz. Oil is up. Inflation is climbing. And he still wants the Fed to cut rates. That’s not a policy position. That’s a contradiction. The war didn’t create the inflation problem. It made an...
UK Living Standards Set to Decline Over Iran Conflict
Britain faces another lost year for living standards due to Iran war https://t.co/MuGg4NBJB6 via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/nPivyrmAQc
Regulation Cuts Bank Risk Premiums, Raises Unemployment
New @nberpubs: "The Macroeconomic Effects of Bank Regulation: New Evidence from a High-Frequency Approach" https://t.co/g4pjlheA4f "A 10 basis point regulation-induced peak reduction in bank risk premiums is accompanied by a 15 basis point peak increase in the unemployment rate." https://t.co/sclisI5Km5
90% of 2025 Tariffs Shift to U.S. Importers
New @nberpubs: "Tariffs in 2025: Short-Run Impacts on the U.S. Economy" https://t.co/Du7yk49H5l "90% of the tariffs are passed through to tariff-inclusive prices paid by U.S. importers" https://t.co/kMhPTPkojL
War Unpriced: Ignoring Inflation and Recession Risks
Wars are inflationary and recessionary. War was not priced in. Recession is not priced in.
AI Product Imports Surge 73% as Tariffs Stay Low
New @nberpubs: "Trade in AI-Related Products" https://t.co/HKvnAGrO6D "imports of these products have grown by 73 percent since 2023... Trade policy has treated these products lightly with product-level exemptions shielding much of AI-related imports from tariffs." https://t.co/HNy3aXAeMU
ECB Confident of Another Soft Landing Amid Oil Shock
Yes, the ECB achieved a soft landing after the last inflation shock which suggests that it believes it will be able to do so again as it tightens into the oil price shock. Let's hope so.
Energy Markets Stay Calm Amid Third Gulf War Lull
We're in the "no-fighting, no-peace, and no-oil" phase of the Third Gulf War. The energy market remains incredibly sanguine: despite Monday's rally, oil and European natural gas prices are below a week ago.
Extreme Fear Fades as Markets Weather Hormuz Tension
Trump ordered a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz overnight. Oil surged 8% above $100. The UK refused to participate. France is forming its own mission to reopen the strait. And Bitcoin dropped... 1%. After 12 straight days...
Iran Conflict Triggers Oil Shortage, Reshapes Market Winners
The Iran war has slashed oil exports from the Persian Gulf, creating a global supply shortage that's just starting to hit markets. As prices are driven up and broader economic impacts unfold, winners and losers will begin to emerge. Full Newsletter:...
Iran's 13-Day Oil Shutdown Signals Permanent Damage
The sharpest Iran economic analysis out there right now comes from @miadmaleki, Iranian-born former US Treasury official. 13 days. That's when Iran shuts off its own oil wells. Hormuz blockade = nowhere to store oil. Can't restart them easily. Permanent damage. Not a...
US‑Iran Talks Collapse; Blockade Threatens Trump‑Xi Summit
US-Iran negotiations failed over the weekend. The risk-off moves today though have mostly been mild. US blockade of Iranian ports could disrupt next month's Trump-Xi meeting. Bab-el-Mandeb Strait may also be brought into play. See https://t.co/13UStEpBOS https://t.co/1u6Xn5BKh9
China's Q
1/3 According to the People's Bank of China, the total amount of aggregate new financing in the first quarter of 2026 was RMB 14.83 trillion, or 2.3% less than in the first quarter of 2025, with more than 100% of the...
US Inflation Stays High, No Fed Cut Yet
Bond Market Message = #HFL = Higher For Longer on US Inflation with no Fed Rate Cut bailout (yet)
Hungarian Forint Leads Global Currency Gains Today
Hungarian forint is far and away the best performing major currency in the world today https://t.co/fg6Z1FKw5u